21世纪经济报道记者冉黎黎 钢铁产业正在打响一场"控产能"之战。 近日，冶金工业规划研究院预测，到2026年钢材需求量约为8亿吨，同比下降1.0%。这一预测降幅超出 此前市场预期，如何促进行业供需平衡？在此之前，我国已针对钢铁产业进行了多轮产能调整，但供需 矛盾至今仍未彻底解决，问题出在哪里？ 有受访专家指出，其核心原因可以归结为"政策-市场-结构"三重错位：一是政策执行被"稀释"；二是需 求萎缩速度超过产能压缩速度；三是行业结构"小、散、低"固化。 据21世纪经济报道记者不完全统计，已有10个省份在"十五五"规划建议中对钢铁产业的发展进行了部 署，其中，产业"升级"是一大高频词。从钢铁第一大省河北来看，其在"十五五"规划建议中提到，推动 重点产业转型升级，加快实现钢铁从原料级向材料级转变，提高河北钢铁在全球产业分工中的竞争力。 展望钢铁产业的"十五五"，冶金工业规划研究院党委书记、院长肖邦国对21世纪经济报道记者表示，钢 铁行业目前大的产能布局已基本结束，国家政策也对新布局钢铁产能项目设置有一定门槛。下一步，政 府部门可能会考虑用差别化政策推动一批落后低效产能退出，几乎所有政策都是差别化、分等分级的， 从而 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Henan Provincial Government has issued an action plan aimed at upgrading the steel industry, focusing on energy efficiency, emissions reduction, and innovation by 2025 and 2027 [1] Group 1: Industry Goals - By the end of 2025, all steel production capacity below the energy efficiency benchmark will undergo technological transformation or be eliminated [1] - By 2027, the industry layout will be further optimized, with low-efficiency capacity largely cleared out and significant improvements in corporate profitability and innovation capabilities [1] Group 2: Environmental and Performance Targets - The plan aims for 3 to 5 enterprises to achieve Grade A environmental performance, with the goal of establishing one leading normative enterprise and one benchmark factory for digital transformation [1] - The proportion of special steel production in total steel output is targeted to increase to approximately 50% [1]

Core Viewpoint - In 2024, China's crude steel production is projected to be 1.005 billion tons, accounting for 53.38% of global production, marking five consecutive years as a billion-ton steel powerhouse. However, Chinese steel companies face challenges of being large but not strong, with high production but low profitability compared to global competitors like Japan [4][26]. Group 1: China's Steel Industry - China's steel industry has six companies in the top ten global steel producers, but the net profits of its top four listed steel companies are still lower than Japan's Nippon Steel [4][7]. - In 2024, China is expected to export 110.71 million tons of steel, with an average price of $755.4 per ton, indicating a trend of increasing volume but decreasing total revenue [26][27]. - China's reliance on imported iron ore is significant, with imports expected to reach 1.237 billion tons in 2024 at an average price of $106.9 per ton, making the industry vulnerable to international price fluctuations [28][30]. Group 2: Japan's Steel Industry Recovery - Japan's Nippon Steel faced severe losses in 2019, with a deficit of 406.1 billion yen (approximately 19.45 billion RMB), but implemented a turnaround strategy that included shutting down furnaces and restructuring operations, leading to a profit of 113 billion yen (approximately 5.61 billion RMB) within a year [18][23]. - The company shifted focus to high-value-added products, such as special steels, which accounted for 20.96% of its total production in 2020, compared to only 12.31% for China [21][24]. - Nippon Steel's recovery strategy also involved negotiating price increases for long-term contracts with clients, which, despite potential backlash from major customers, effectively boosted revenue [22][24]. Group 3: Lessons for China - The challenges faced by Japan's steel industry in the past provide valuable lessons for China, particularly in terms of focusing on high-value products and improving operational efficiency [31]. - China's steel companies are making strides in producing high-value steel products, such as LNG ship steel and aircraft carrier deck steel, indicating a shift towards higher quality and value in production [31].

Core Viewpoint - China has maintained its position as the world's largest steel producer, with a crude steel output of 1.005 billion tons in 2024, accounting for 53.38% of global production, despite efforts to reduce excess capacity [3][20]. Group 1: China's Steel Industry - China's steel industry is characterized by high production but low profitability, with the net profits of its top four listed steel companies in 2024 not surpassing that of Japan's Nippon Steel [3][5]. - In 2024, China exported 11.07 million tons of steel, with an average price of $755.4 per ton, indicating a trend of increasing volume but decreasing total revenue [20][22]. - China's reliance on imported iron ore is significant, with imports reaching 1.237 billion tons in 2024 at an average price of $106.9 per ton, making the industry vulnerable to international price fluctuations [23][25]. Group 2: Japan's Steel Industry Recovery - Japan's Nippon Steel faced severe losses in 2019 but implemented a comprehensive reform strategy that included shutting down high-cost production facilities and focusing on high-value products, leading to a turnaround in profitability within a year [14][18]. - The company shifted its focus to producing high-margin products, such as special steel, which accounted for approximately 20.96% of its total crude steel output in 2020, compared to only 12.31% for China [17][20]. - Japan's steel industry has benefited from government policies aimed at eliminating outdated capacity and promoting industry upgrades, which could serve as a model for China's steel sector [12][26]. Group 3: Future Directions for China's Steel Companies - Chinese steel companies are encouraged to learn from Japan's past experiences and focus on producing high-value-added steel products to enhance profitability and competitiveness [26]. - The development of high-quality steel products, such as LNG ship steel and aircraft carrier deck steel, indicates progress in technology and product diversification within China's steel industry [26].

Group 1 - In 2024, China's crude steel production reached 1.005 billion tons, accounting for 53.38% of global output, marking five consecutive years as a billion-ton steel powerhouse [2] - Among the top 10 steel producers, six are Chinese companies, highlighting China's dominance in steel production despite efforts to curb excess capacity [2] - The most profitable four listed steel companies in China (Baowu, CITIC Special Steel, Nanjing Steel, and Huazhong Steel) combined net profits in 2024 were still lower than Japan's Nippon Steel, which indicates a disparity in profitability despite higher production [2][5] Group 2 - Japan's Nippon Steel faced overcapacity issues in the late 1990s and significant losses in 2018, but successfully turned around its fortunes by 2020, demonstrating effective management strategies [5][20] - Key strategies employed by Japanese steel companies included securing low-cost iron ore supplies, focusing on high-value steel products, and government support for industry upgrades [14][18] - In 2020, Japan's crude steel production was 83.19 million tons, with special steel accounting for approximately 20.96% of total production, compared to China's 12.31% for special steel in the same year [30] Group 3 - China's steel industry is heavily reliant on imported iron ore, with 1.237 billion tons imported in 2024 at an average price of $106.9 per ton, making it vulnerable to international price fluctuations [37] - The Chinese steel sector is undergoing supply-side reforms aimed at transitioning to higher-value production, with notable advancements in technology and product quality [38] - The establishment of projects like the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea aims to enhance China's self-sufficiency in high-grade iron ore, potentially increasing domestic supply by 3-5% [37][38]

Core Insights - The steel industry in Rizhao is rapidly advancing towards the high-end global value chain, with significant technological breakthroughs and a projected output value of 194.55 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for nearly half of the city's industrial output [1] High-end Breakthroughs - Rizhao Steel Holding Group has achieved a significant milestone with its ESP technology, producing steel with thickness precision from 0.6 to 6.0 mm and strength ranging from 200 to 1500 MPa, which is utilized in major projects like the Three Gorges Dam and Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge [2] - Shandong Steel Rizhao's innovations include the successful application of hot-rolled pipeline steel in extreme cold conditions and the production of ultra-thick hot-rolled coils, revolutionizing the steel structure sector [2] Intelligent Empowerment - The integration of AI and digital technologies has transformed steel production processes, with Shandong Steel Rizhao developing AI machine vision for automatic steel transfer, significantly enhancing efficiency [3] - Rizhao Steel has reduced the quality verification time for its products from 48 hours to 30 minutes through its "digital steel coil" technology, streamlining production and improving product quality [3] Green Development - The steel industry in Rizhao is committed to green and low-carbon development, with Shandong Steel Rizhao investing over 8.4 billion yuan in environmental protection, achieving leading energy consumption and zero wastewater discharge [5] - Rizhao Steel's ESP technology has led to a reduction of over 70% in energy consumption and 80% in carbon dioxide emissions compared to traditional processes, setting a benchmark in the industry [5] Industrial Cluster Development - The Rizhao steel industry is positioned as a key driver for industrial transformation, aiming to create a world-class coastal advanced steel manufacturing base with a capacity of 40 million tons [6] - A specialized industrial park covering 36.4 square kilometers has been established, fostering a comprehensive industrial ecosystem that includes upstream operations, raw material processing, and downstream manufacturing [6]