钢铁产业是国民经济的重要基础产业、支柱产业，是关乎工业稳定增长、经济平稳运行的重要领域。 近年来，受多重因素影响，钢材需求持续下降，使得钢铁行业总体处于微利状态，迫切需要改善行业现 状，稳定增长态势。 9月22日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、商务部、市场监管总局等5部门联合发布《钢铁 行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》（以下简称《工作方案》）。 《工作方案》提出2025—2026年，钢铁行业增加值年均增长4%左右，经济效益企稳回升，市场供需更 趋平衡，产业结构更加优化，有效供给能力不断增强，绿色低碳、数字化发展水平显著提升的总目标。 另一方面，近年来，钢铁行业处于微利状态，企业经营压力不断加大。数据显示，2024年，钢铁行业利 润662.9亿元，同比减少42.6%，行业亏损面较大。今年1—7月，钢铁行业虽然实现利润830.3亿元，但 行业稳增长的基础并不牢固。 此外，伴随着环保和"双碳"约束进一步趋紧，钢铁行业的绿色低碳转型也更加紧迫。 在此背景下，《工作方案》的出台，非常精准地切中了当下钢铁行业发展的症结和难点。 加强行业管理，优化产能 《工作方案》部署了多项举措，包括加强行业管理、强 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a mid - term short - allocation strategy for iron ore [4][49] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore supply - demand pattern will gradually change with the commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore at the end of the year. The probability of the spot price exceeding $110 in the medium term is low, so it is recommended to short - allocate iron ore. Also, pay attention to the strength conversion between black - sector varieties [4][49] - The commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore will increase the supply of iron ore. Mainstream and non - mainstream mines will expand production to seize market share. At the same time, iron ore demand at home and abroad is difficult to improve significantly [4][49] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Simandou Iron Ore Commissioning Process - It is planned to ship the first batch of iron ore from Simandou in November 2025, with a volume between 50 - 100 million tons, and export through the WCS port before the completion of the SimFer port. The SimFer mine and infrastructure are progressing well. The entire Simandou project's shipping volume in 2025 is expected to be between 250 - 300 million tons [9][10] 2. Impact of Simandou Iron Ore Commissioning on Mine Business Behavior - Before the commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore, the four major mines controlled the production rhythm. After its commissioning, they are likely to adjust their business strategies and expand production. Simandou Iron Ore's cost is similar to overseas non - mainstream mines but lower than domestic mines, which may cause the marginal cost curve of iron ore to shift downward and to the right [14][17][19] 3. Overseas Mine Supply Outlook 3.1 Mainstream Mine Supply Outlook - In 2025, the mainstream mine increment is 14.02 million tons, and after 2026, the increment may exceed 35 million tons. Each major mine has expansion plans, such as Rio Tinto's Western Range project, BHP's production target increase in some mines, and VALE's new project commissioning [20][21][25] 3.2 Non - mainstream Mine Supply Outlook - In addition to Simandou Iron Ore, other non - mainstream mines are also being commissioned. For example, Australia's Onslow Iron Ore may increase production in 2026, and Brazil's CSN plans to expand the Casa de Pedra mine and increase the capacity of the P15 new mining area [26][27] 4. Iron Ore Demand Hard to Increase Significantly 4.1 Domestic Iron Ore Demand Analysis - In the short term, domestic iron ore demand is relatively strong, but there is production - limiting pressure in the fourth quarter, and the focus may be on hot metal. In the medium - to - long term, steel consumption, especially real - estate steel consumption, is difficult to improve significantly, and iron ore demand is likely to continue to decline [31][34] 4.2 Overseas Iron Ore Demand Analysis - From January to July 2025, the pig iron output in other regions except China decreased year - on - year. In the next 2 - 3 years, the new steel - making capacity overseas is mainly electric - arc furnaces, accompanied by green transformation and technological upgrading, so iron ore demand is also difficult to improve significantly [39] 5. Iron Ore Investment Opportunities Analysis in Different Cycles - In the fourth quarter, there is a risk of negative feedback in the black - industry chain, and iron ore may make up for the decline after late October. In the medium term, iron ore may be weaker than other industrial products due to the expansion cycle, and attention can be paid to the strength conversion between black - sector varieties [41][47][49] 6. Summary - The commissioning of Simandou Iron Ore is unlikely to be affected by building a smelter locally. The shipping volume in 2025 is expected to be between 250 - 300 million tons, and supply is expected to recover further after 2026. The supply of mainstream and non - mainstream mines will expand. Domestic and overseas iron ore demand is difficult to improve significantly. The supply - demand pattern will change, and it is recommended to short - allocate iron ore in the medium term and pay attention to the strength conversion between black - sector varieties [46][49]

Group 1 - The steel industry is entering a phase of slowing demand growth, with a shift towards quality improvement and reduced production [1][2][3] - Global steel demand is projected to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.43% in 2020-2024, with a decline expected in 2023 and 2024 [2] - China's steel demand is decreasing, expected to account for 48.2% of global demand by 2025, down from 50% in 2020 [2] Group 2 - Steel companies are transitioning from being mere suppliers to providing comprehensive metal material solutions, focusing on high-value and differentiated products [4][5] - Companies like Hebei Iron and Steel Group are increasing R&D investments, with a growth rate of over 25% annually, and shifting product focus from "raw material level" to "material level" [4] - Baowu Steel Group is enhancing demand-driven strategies by offering lightweight, durable, and efficient steel solutions [5] Group 3 - The global steel industry is expected to see significant changes in production layout, product structure, and green low-carbon initiatives [3][6] - Japanese steel companies are adopting strategies to transition towards high-value products and reduce capacity in response to changing demand [6] - Future competitiveness in the steel sector will depend on the ability to acquire raw materials and energy at low costs and maintain high energy efficiency in production facilities [7]

编辑：赵鼎 转自：新华财经 近日，由兴业研究、气候债券倡议组织（CBI）与兴业银行石家庄分行联合举办的"金融支持钢铁行业 绿色低碳转型"绿色金融工作坊在河北石家庄圆满落幕。本次活动邀请了河北省发展改革委、河北省工 信厅、中国人民银行河北省分行等相关部门，以及国际国内专业机构、省内钢铁企业等40多家机构参 会。会议聚焦"金融创新赋能钢铁行业绿色低碳转型，助力河北钢铁行业高质量发展"主题，共商钢铁行 业绿色转型之路。 本次工作坊的成功举办，既凝聚了"政策引导、标准先行、金融赋能、企业实践"的转型共识，也为全国 钢铁行业绿色低碳发展提供了"河北样本"。随着金融支持政策的持续加码与银企合作的深化，河北钢铁 产业正以金融创新为引擎，加速向低碳化、智能化、高端化迈进，为经济高质量发展注入绿色动能。 （孙若影） 兴业研究董事长兼总裁刘健，兴业银行石家庄分行副行长庞凯，气候债券倡议组织中国区总经理谢文泓 为本次活动致辞。河北省工业和信息化厅钢铁工业处处长张晓辉、河北省发展和改革委员会产业发展处 副处长麻颖智、中国人民银行河北省分行金融研究处副处长高东胜分别作主旨发言。中国钢研科技集团 有限公司钢铁绿色化智能化技术中心、气候债 ...