Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The recent increase in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and support from coal - based prices. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. There is a high risk of chasing high prices in the short term, especially after the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which may lead to a correction in ferroalloys. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with low operating rates. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually reducing it, while silicon manganese's inventory reduction is accelerating. The market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance is weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - Silicon iron: In the main production areas, the price of 72 - grade silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia is 5600 yuan/ton (+270). In trading areas, it is 5900 yuan/ton (+400) in Hebei and Tianjin. Silicon manganese: In the northern production area (Inner Mongolia), the market price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese is 5700 yuan/ton (+70), in the southern production area (Guangxi) is 5720 yuan/ton (+50), and in the trading area (Jiangsu) is 6090 yuan/ton (+100) [2]. Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, the profit in Inner Mongolia's production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia's production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). For silicon manganese, the profit in the northern region is - 66.74 yuan/ton (-0.1), and in the southern region is - 430.33 yuan/ton (-5.13). Manganese ore port inventory is increasing, and the shipment of Australian ore is expected to resume [2]. Supply - Silicon iron: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. Silicon manganese: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 41.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%, and the weekly output is 18.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.02%. Although the profit of ferroalloy plants has recovered, facing weak downstream demand, the operating rates remain low [3]. Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high pig iron production supports the demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese. Pig iron production has rebounded above the seasonal level this week. On the other hand, the slow inventory reduction of five major steel products limits the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space of silicon iron and silicon manganese is limited. In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the overall black sector is declining, causing doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%; the demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24% [3]. Inventory - Silicon iron: This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. Silicon manganese: The enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse receipt is 38.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.69%. Silicon iron currently has high inventory pressure, while the inventory pressure of silicon manganese is weakening [3].

硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年7月20日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：现货需求偏紧，盘面带动成本上移 ◼ 总体来看，双硅供需格局扩张，合金市场仍呈现"情绪驱动冲高，需求支撑仍存"的特征，双硅钢招定价均环比放量上涨，但仍避免过度追涨，生产商 逢高点价出货格局已定，需关注主力合约交割期的仓单注册情况，同时成材供给与钢厂利润同处高位的持续性仍存疑，保持对港口矿端报价及铁水产量 的高频跟踪，等待市场情绪的缓冲与钢厂的实际减停产信号。 双硅上涨情绪不减，价格走势震荡偏强 ◼ 本周硅铁2509合约走势偏强震荡，收于5,508元/吨，周环比上涨48元/吨，成交792,287 手，持仓183,514 手，持仓环比减少183,514 手。 | 基本面 | 条 目 | | | 硅 | 铁 | | | | | 锰 硅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Silicon Ferrosilicon - Last week, the silicon ferrosilicon futures market rose after a surge but continued to lift its center of gravity. Rumors on Thursday drove a rapid rebound in the market, but local enterprises did not receive relevant news. Supply and demand data showed little fluctuation, with raw material costs expected to remain stable and manufacturer inventories slightly increasing after a halt in decline. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5400 - 5800 [4]. Manganese Silico - Manganese - Last week, the weekly supply of manganese silico - manganese increased while demand decreased, and the futures market slightly declined after a surge. The short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, but the overall manganese ore inventory is low, and the cost support has strengthened. The alloy trading idea is short - term long and long - term short, and the industry can consider hedging when the basis is repaired and the upper pressure level is reached. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5700 - 6000 [22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Silicon Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises was 9.87 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 13.7% year - on - year). The output in June 2025 was 41.41 tons (down 0.18% month - on - month and 14.13% year - on - year) [6]. Demand - The consumption of silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 2.01 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 2.9% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [9]. Inventory - Manufacturer inventory was 7.02 tons (up 4.8% week - on - week and 22.8% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.38 days (up 0.18 days month - on - month and 0.83 days year - on - year) [11]. Cost - Electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The prices of other raw materials such as semi - coke remained stable. The cost of silicon ferrosilicon in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, and the profit increased [14]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract was 90 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,519 (up 8,242 week - on - week and 6,903 year - on - year) [17]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [19]. Manganese Silico - Manganese Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent manganese silico - manganese enterprises was 18.2 tons (up 1.2% week - on - week and down 18.2% year - on - year). The national output in June was 75.23 tons (up 1.3% month - on - month and down 19.1% year - on - year) [24]. Demand - The weekly consumption of manganese silico - manganese was 12.49 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 3.7% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [26]. Inventory - The sample enterprise inventory was 22.08 tons (down 0.67% week - on - week and up 51.4% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.49 days (up 0.34 days month - on - month and 0.42 days year - on - year) [29]. Cost - Manganese ore quotes were firm. Electricity prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the cost of manganese silico - manganese in various regions decreased slightly while the profit increased [36]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton, down 48 week - on - week. The number of manganese silico - manganese warehouse receipts was 85,037 (down 3,649 week - on - week and 43,238 year - on - year) [31]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [38].