Demand - In 2025, national fixed asset investment is expected to decrease by 3.8% year-on-year, with a widening decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to January-November [18][19] - Manufacturing investment is projected to grow by 0.6% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.3 percentage points from January-November [18] - Infrastructure investment is anticipated to decline by 2.2%, with a 1.1 percentage point increase in the rate of decline compared to January-November [18] - Real estate development investment is expected to drop by 17.2% year-on-year, with a 1.3 percentage point increase in the decline rate compared to January-November [18] - January average weekly demand for rebar is 1.82 million tons, down 12% month-on-month, while hot-rolled coil demand is 3.11 million tons, up 1% month-on-month [18][19] - February demand is expected to stagnate due to the Spring Festival holiday [18][19] Supply - In 2025, China's crude steel production is projected to be 961 million tons, a decrease of 44.22 million tons or 4.4% year-on-year [19] - Pig iron production is expected to be 836 million tons, down 25.86 million tons or 3% year-on-year [19] - January production saw a slight rebound, with molten iron production increasing by 0.55 million tons [19] - February is expected to see stable production for long-process steel mills, while electric arc furnace plants will gradually shut down for the holiday [19] Inventory - In January, inventory of the five major steel products increased by 463,600 tons, with rebar inventory rising by 535,000 tons and hot-rolled coil inventory decreasing by 153,800 tons [19] - Total inventory of the five products increased by 1.4615 million tons year-on-year [19] - February is expected to see accelerated inventory accumulation due to stagnant demand and high production levels [19] Exports - In December 2025, China exported 11.301 million tons of steel, an increase of 1.321 million tons or 13.2% month-on-month [20] - Cumulative steel exports for 2025 reached 119.019 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.5% [20] - The implementation of the steel product export license management system from January 1, 2026, may lead to a noticeable decline in export volumes in January and February [20] Costs - In January, iron ore prices fluctuated, while coke prices saw an initial increase followed by a decline, leading to a slight narrowing of profits for long-process steel mills and an expansion of losses for short-process mills [20] - The profit margin for 247 steel mills is currently at 39.39%, with raw material replenishment nearing completion [20] Summary - The steel market in January was characterized by weak demand and insufficient driving forces, leading to narrow price fluctuations [21] - February is expected to see increased supply pressure due to stagnant demand and high production levels, with inventory accumulation expected to accelerate [21] - The overall market sentiment remains somewhat positive due to a strong atmosphere for price increases in the commodity market [21]

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The recent increase in ferroalloys is due to strong policy expectations and support from coal - based prices. Last Friday, influenced by the news of an anti - involution meeting among ferroalloy enterprises, both ferroalloys hit the daily limit. There is a high risk of chasing high prices in the short term, especially after the sharp decline of coking coal futures on Friday night, which may lead to a correction in ferroalloys. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of ferroalloys is relatively small, with low operating rates. Silicon iron has high inventory but is gradually reducing it, while silicon manganese's inventory reduction is accelerating. The market is driven by sentiment, but the fundamental resonance is weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policy expectations and risk control [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - Silicon iron: In the main production areas, the price of 72 - grade silicon iron in Inner Mongolia is 5600 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia is 5600 yuan/ton (+270). In trading areas, it is 5900 yuan/ton (+400) in Hebei and Tianjin. Silicon manganese: In the northern production area (Inner Mongolia), the market price of 6517 - grade silicon manganese is 5700 yuan/ton (+70), in the southern production area (Guangxi) is 5720 yuan/ton (+50), and in the trading area (Jiangsu) is 6090 yuan/ton (+100) [2]. Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, the profit in Inner Mongolia's production area is +79 yuan/ton (+250), and in Ningxia's production area is 226 yuan/ton (+270). For silicon manganese, the profit in the northern region is - 66.74 yuan/ton (-0.1), and in the southern region is - 430.33 yuan/ton (-5.13). Manganese ore port inventory is increasing, and the shipment of Australian ore is expected to resume [2]. Supply - Silicon iron: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 33.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.88%, and the weekly output is 10.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.3%. Silicon manganese: The weekly operating rate of production enterprises is 41.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.05%, and the weekly output is 18.65 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.02%. Although the profit of ferroalloy plants has recovered, facing weak downstream demand, the operating rates remain low [3]. Demand - Steel mills have good profits, and high pig iron production supports the demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese. Pig iron production has rebounded above the seasonal level this week. On the other hand, the slow inventory reduction of five major steel products limits the further production space of steel mills, and the growth space of silicon iron and silicon manganese is limited. In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the overall black sector is declining, causing doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, and the demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak. This week, the demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 2.01 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.5%; the demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 12.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24% [3]. Inventory - Silicon iron: This week, the enterprise inventory is 6.21 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%, the warehouse receipt inventory is 11.06 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.73%, and the total inventory is 17.28 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%. Silicon manganese: The enterprise inventory is 20.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.22%, the warehouse receipt is 38.83 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.85%, and the total inventory is 59.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.69%. Silicon iron currently has high inventory pressure, while the inventory pressure of silicon manganese is weakening [3].

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy is expanding. The alloy market shows the characteristics of "rising driven by sentiment and still supported by demand". The steel tender prices of both have increased month - on - month, but over - chasing is not recommended. Producers should sell at high points. Attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration during the delivery period of the main contract. The sustainability of high levels of finished steel supply and steel mill profits is still in doubt. High - frequency tracking of port ore quotes and hot metal production should be maintained, waiting for market sentiment to ease and actual production cut signals from steel mills [4]. - This week, the alloy price trend was affected by macro - level boosts and the expected increase in long - term cost, leading to an upward price trend. If the supply of silicon and manganese ferroalloys continues to expand, the alloy price may face pressure after the market sentiment fades [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Overall Market Situation - **Price Trend**: This week, the 2509 contract of silicon ferroalloy closed at 5,508 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton week - on - week. The 2509 contract of manganese ferroalloy closed at 5,804 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - **Spot Price**: The spot price of silicon ferroalloy in major regions in China fluctuated, with the aggregated quotation of 75B silicon ferroalloy in main production areas ranging from 5,150 to 5,250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week change of 30 - 50 yuan/ton. The aggregated quotation of silicon manganese in major regions was in the range of 5,550 - 5,760 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 10 - 80 yuan/ton [11]. - **Basis**: The basis of both silicon and manganese ferroalloys fluctuated. Attention should be paid to the off - season reverse arbitrage of silicon ferroalloy [16]. 2. Silicon Ferroalloy Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the silicon ferroalloy output was 100,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.3%. The weekly operating rate was 32.45%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points from last week. The supply is expected to rebound rapidly after the resumption of production in large factories in Inner Mongolia [24]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making demand**: The actual output of downstream hot metal increased month - on - month. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.89%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from last week. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons [37]. - **Non - steel demand**: The output of stainless steel crude steel in June was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.01%. The planned output of stainless steel crude steel in July decreased by 4.32% month - on - month. The total output of magnesium metal in June was 68,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.23%. The export volume of silicon ferroalloy in May was 36,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.96% [42]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample enterprise inventory**: As of July 18, the inventory of 60 silicon ferroalloy sample enterprises was 63,540 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,700 tons. - **Warehouse receipt inventory**: As of July 18, the number of silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 21,950, a week - on - week increase of 1,431, with a converted inventory of 109,750 tons. The warehouse receipt registration rate slowed down. - **Steel mill inventory**: In July, the average available days of silicon ferroalloy inventory in steel mills was 14.25 days, a decrease of 1.13 days [47]. - **Profit**: Affected by the decrease in settlement electricity prices in some regions and the decline in semi - coke prices, the cost center of silicon ferroalloy shifted down, and the profit followed the upward trend of the market [58]. 3. Manganese Ferroalloy Fundamental Data - **Supply**: This week, the manganese ferroalloy output was 182,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,000 tons, with a growth rate of 0.3%. The weekly operating rate was 40.53%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from last week. The supply in the northern main production areas continued to resume [62]. - **Raw Material**: - **Overseas quotes**: The quotes of overseas manganese ore enterprises showed a mixed trend. Some semi - carbonate ore quotes increased, while some oxide ore quotes decreased. - **Port price**: The port prices of various manganese ore varieties in Tianjin Port increased slightly. The global manganese ore departure volume expanded month - on - month, but the recent arrival volume may tighten, and the port demand release rate slowed down [69]. - **Demand**: - **Steel - making demand**: The actual output of downstream hot metal increased month - on - month. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.89%, an increase of 0.99 percentage points from last week. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4244 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons. However, the output of rebar and building materials decreased this week, and the overall demand support for manganese ferroalloy may weaken marginally [84]. - **Inventory**: - **Sample enterprise inventory**: As of July 18, the inventory of 63 manganese ferroalloy sample enterprises was 216,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4,500 tons. - **Warehouse receipt inventory**: As of July 18, the number of manganese ferroalloy warehouse receipts was 79,931, a week - on - week decrease of 5,106, with a converted inventory of 399,655 tons. The warehouse receipt destocking rate accelerated. - **Steel mill inventory**: In July, the average available days of silicon manganese inventory in steel mills was 14.24 days, a decrease of 1.25 days [92]. - **Profit**: The cost support was relatively stable, and the profit of manganese ferroalloy followed the upward price trend [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Silicon Ferrosilicon - Last week, the silicon ferrosilicon futures market rose after a surge but continued to lift its center of gravity. Rumors on Thursday drove a rapid rebound in the market, but local enterprises did not receive relevant news. Supply and demand data showed little fluctuation, with raw material costs expected to remain stable and manufacturer inventories slightly increasing after a halt in decline. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5400 - 5800 [4]. Manganese Silico - Manganese - Last week, the weekly supply of manganese silico - manganese increased while demand decreased, and the futures market slightly declined after a surge. The short - term fundamentals lack obvious drivers, but the overall manganese ore inventory is low, and the cost support has strengthened. The alloy trading idea is short - term long and long - term short, and the industry can consider hedging when the basis is repaired and the upper pressure level is reached. The report suggests paying attention to the rebound strength between 5700 - 6000 [22]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Silicon Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent silicon ferrosilicon enterprises was 9.87 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 13.7% year - on - year). The output in June 2025 was 41.41 tons (down 0.18% month - on - month and 14.13% year - on - year) [6]. Demand - The consumption of silicon ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 2.01 tons (down 1.5% week - on - week and 2.9% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [9]. Inventory - Manufacturer inventory was 7.02 tons (up 4.8% week - on - week and 22.8% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.38 days (up 0.18 days month - on - month and 0.83 days year - on - year) [11]. Cost - Electricity prices in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, while those in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The prices of other raw materials such as semi - coke remained stable. The cost of silicon ferrosilicon in Qinghai and Ningxia decreased, and the profit increased [14]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract was 90 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton week - on - week. The number of silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 20,519 (up 8,242 week - on - week and 6,903 year - on - year) [17]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [19]. Manganese Silico - Manganese Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent manganese silico - manganese enterprises was 18.2 tons (up 1.2% week - on - week and down 18.2% year - on - year). The national output in June was 75.23 tons (up 1.3% month - on - month and down 19.1% year - on - year) [24]. Demand - The weekly consumption of manganese silico - manganese was 12.49 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 3.7% year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 872.7 tons (down 1.4% week - on - week and 1.8% year - on - year) [26]. Inventory - The sample enterprise inventory was 22.08 tons (down 0.67% week - on - week and up 51.4% year - on - year). The steel mill inventory days in June were 15.49 days (up 0.34 days month - on - month and 0.42 days year - on - year) [29]. Cost - Manganese ore quotes were firm. Electricity prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the cost of manganese silico - manganese in various regions decreased slightly while the profit increased [36]. Basis - The basis of the 09 contract in Inner Mongolia was 204 yuan/ton, down 48 week - on - week. The number of manganese silico - manganese warehouse receipts was 85,037 (down 3,649 week - on - week and 43,238 year - on - year) [31]. Contract Position and Precipitated Funds No specific data summaries provided, only relevant charts are shown [38].