前景 年末补库支撑震荡，需求预期仍谨慎 东证衍生品研究院黑色金属资深分析师：许惠敏 从业资格号 : F3081016 投资咨询号 : Z0016073 报告日期：2026年1月2日 | 节前补库托底价格，年后需求预期压制上行空间 | 因子 | 間度观点 | 12535 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周全球铁矿石发运量3677.10万吨，环比增加212.60万吨（+6.14%）； 澳洲发运量2113.70万吨，环比增加163.10万吨（+8.36%）; 巴西发运量945.90万吨，环比增加81.80万吨（+9.47%）； 澳巴合计发运量3059.60万吨，环比增加244.90万吨（+8.70%）。本周中国 | | | 供给 | 45港铁矿到港量2601.40万吨、环比减少45.30万吨（-1.71%）。矿山发运与到腾维持稳定，李节性犹动有限，供应端无明显增量或收 | 中性 | | | 缩。 | | | | 全国247家钢厂高炉产能利用率为85.26%，环比提升0.32%（+0.38%）；目均铁水产量227.43万吨，环比增加0.85万吨（+0.38%）； | | | 龍求 | 钢厂盈利比 ...

世界最大的铁矿石供应商力拓集团周一在其微信公众号上表示，西芒杜项目的首批货物已从几内亚启 航。 12月10日，铁矿石期货呈现震荡上行走势，截至发稿主力合约报772.5元/吨，大幅上涨2.32%。 【消息面汇总】 12月09日：全国主港铁矿石成交113.7万吨，环比上涨1.25%；远期现货成交156.7万吨。 2025年11月，在全球经济普遍放缓、钢铁行业需求疲软的背景下，主要供应国铁矿石出口呈现负面动 态。澳大利亚、巴西、南非和印度四国总发货量为1.17亿吨，较10月(1.2445亿吨)下降6%。 机构观点 永安期货（600927）：驱动上矿石基本面矛盾不大，供应端发运维持季节性表现，考虑到四季度主流矿 山有冲量预期，近期到港将维持中高位，这导致铁水平衡点上移，铁水需求小幅走弱，在高到港背景下 矿石将阶段性累库。当前铁矿石基差偏大，期货一定程度上反映了累库预期，考虑到矿石的结构性问 题，现货价格短期具备韧性，铁矿石价格短期维持震荡。 正信期货：综合来看，近期铁矿进入供需双弱格局，但需求连续下滑压力较大，目前高炉部分品种利润 尚可，但淡季出库放缓、压制钢厂复产节奏，需求下行主导当前行情，预计矿价仍有回调空间。策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the iron ore price fluctuated within a narrow range. The supply - side global shipments declined, which supported the price. However, the slow - down in the growth rate of hot metal production restricted the upward price movement. As the pre - National Day steel mill restocking nears the end, port inventories are rapidly accumulating. Attention should be paid to the impact of downstream demand and coal price changes on the ore price [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - As of Friday's close, the main iron ore contract 2601 closed at 790 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.13%. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was 103.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.3. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - The latest data from Mysteel shows that the global iron ore shipments this period were 33.248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.483 million tons, a decline of 6.95%. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions decreased significantly. The arrivals at 45 ports this period were 26.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.127 million tons [1][8] Demand - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows that the blast furnace operating rate was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.51 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.41 percentage points. The steel mill profit rate was 58.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 39.4 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.175 million tons [1][10][11] Inventory - According to Mysteel statistics, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 140.0028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.992 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.364 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0277 million tons [2][13] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating - Inter - delivery: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for iron ore is "sideways" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - High iron ore prices lead to relatively loose supply, high hot metal production shows strong consumption resilience, and overall inventory remains at a medium level [2] - Considering downstream pre - holiday stockpiling, iron ore prices will remain volatile in the short term. The supply from Simandou will exert significant pressure on long - term prices. Attention should be paid to the changes in floating cargo volume and pre - holiday stockpiling [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated strongly. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was $106.25/ton, up $0.85/ton week - on - week, a rise of 0.81%. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 799.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, a rise of 0.63% [1][5] Supply - The latest data from Mysteel shows that the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.73 million tons this period, an increase of 8.17 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.62 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons week - on - week [1][8] Demand - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.98%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 5.75 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points week - on - week and 6.29 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 48.91 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.0047 million tons week - on - week and 0.1764 million tons year - on - year [1][10][11] Inventory - Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports in the country was 138.0108 million tons, a decrease of 0.4839 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.3917 million tons, an increase of 0.0789 million tons week - on - week [1][13]

上周（5.17-5.24）铁矿石价格先涨后跌，窄幅震荡运行。截至24日，生意社铁矿价格指数为777.56，环 比下行0.88%。 2025年5月26日铁矿石现 货价格表 | 品种 | 品牌/产地 | 价格（元/ | 规格 | 报价类 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 吨） | | 型 | | 铁矿石 | 江阴港 | 713 | 品种:粉矿;产地:印度;品 位:62%;湿吨; | 市场价 | | 784 | 品种:PB粉;产地:澳大利亚;品 | 市场价 | | | | | 位:62%;湿吨; | | | | | 812 | 品种:粗粉;产地:巴西;品 | 市场价 | | | | | 位:63.5%;湿吨; | | | | | 铁矿石 | 曹妃甸港 | 729 | 品种:粉矿;产地:印度;品 位:62%;湿吨; | 市场价 | | 776 | 品种:PB粉;产地:澳大利亚;品 | 市场价 | | | | | 位:62%;湿吨; | | | | | 785 | 品种:粗粉;产地:巴西;品 | 市场价 | | | | | 位:63.5%;湿吨; | | | | | 铁矿石 ...