1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of iron ore is supported by pre - holiday restocking by steel mills due to low raw material inventories and stable molten iron production, but the market remains cautious about the recovery of terminal demand after the Spring Festival. The price lacks continuous driving force and is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, with attention needed on the sustainability of post - holiday restocking and changes in the steel mill start - up rhythm [3]. - The overall market situation shows a relatively loose supply - demand relationship. The expectation of winter restocking provides short - term resilience, but high inventories restrict the upward space. There are significant differences in short - term trends due to the game between the expectation of winter restocking and high inventory pressure [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipment Volume**: This week, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,677.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 212.60 tons (+6.14%); Australian shipments were 2,113.70 tons, a week - on - week increase of 163.10 tons (+8.36%); Brazilian shipments were 945.90 tons, a week - on - week increase of 81.80 tons (+9.47%); the combined shipment volume of Australia and Brazil was 3,059.60 tons, a week - on - week increase of 244.90 tons (+8.70%) [3][36]. - **Four Major Mines' Shipment Volume**: The report presents the shipment volume data and trends of four major mines (BHP, Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale) in different time periods [44][45][48]. - **Freight Rates**: The freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao dropped to $8.91/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $1.45/ton (-13.99%); the freight rate from Brazil to Qingdao was $23.62/ton, a week - on - week decrease of $0.68/ton (-2.80%) [56]. - **Iron Ore Arrival**: This week, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports in China was 2,601.40 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 45.30 tons (-1.71%) [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 57.90%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86% (-1.46%); the daily output of iron concentrate was 36.56 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 0.54 tons/day (-1.46%) [60]. 3.2 Demand - **Steel Enterprise Production**: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills in the country was 85.26%, a week - on - week increase of 0.32% (+0.38%); the daily average molten iron output was 227.43 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.85 tons (+0.38%); the profit - making ratio of steel mills was 38.10%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87% (+2.34%) [70]. - **Sintered Powder and Furnace Charge Ratio**: The daily average consumption of domestic sintered powder was 7.82 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.02 tons (-0.26%); the daily average consumption of imported sintered powder was 60.70 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 tons (-0.64%) [72]. - **Global Steel Output**: The report shows the production data and trends of global blast furnace pig iron, crude steel, and China's blast furnace pig iron and crude steel in different time periods [80][82][84][87]. - **Port Despatch**: The report presents the seasonal data and trends of 45 - port despatch volume and the daily average despatch volume of Qingdao Port [92][94]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 15,970.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 112.23 tons (+0.71%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 16,721.79 tons, a week - on - week increase of 101.83 tons (+0.61%) [96]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The imported ore inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 8,946.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 86.35 tons (+0.97%); the imported sintered powder inventory was 1,261.72 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55.47 tons (+4.60%) [105]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: - **Main Contract Situation and Basis**: The price of the main contract fluctuated strongly, with a settlement price of 789.50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.50 yuan/ton (+2.00%); the basis was 41.83 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15.00 yuan/ton (+55.90%); the Platts Iron Ore Price Index was 108.50 dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.70 dollars/dry ton (+0.65%); the ratio of rebar to iron ore in the main contract was 3.961 [7]. - **Inter - month Spread**: The inter - month spread structure continued to be in contango, with the 9 - 1 spread at 36.50 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread at 15.50 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread at 21.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Spot Market**: - **Iron Ore Spot Price**: The report shows the price trends of various iron ore products such as the Platts Iron Ore Index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder [20][21]. - **Price Difference between Lump Ore and Powder Ore**: The report presents the price difference trends between different types of lump ore and powder ore [23][26]. - **Price Difference between Different Grades**: The report shows the price difference trends between different grades of iron ore [29][31]. 3.5 Other Information - **Weekly Focus on Iron Ore**: It includes important news and industrial chain dynamics, such as the suspension of the expansion project of Brazil's Samarco mine due to environmental permit issues and various macro - news [4]. - **Summary of Market Views**: There are 5 bullish views, 7 neutral views, and 3 bearish views this week; last week, there were 5 bullish views, 7 neutral views, and 1 bearish view. The core of the divergence lies in the game between the expectation of winter restocking and high inventory pressure under the relatively loose supply - demand situation [6]. - **Profit Situation**: The profit of Tangshan rebar was - 105.04 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.96 yuan/ton (-17.29%); the profit of Tangshan hot - rolled coil was - 118.58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.69 yuan/ton (-15.46%) [112].

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore futures have shown a significant upward trend, with the main contract reaching 772.5 yuan/ton, marking a substantial increase of 2.32% [1] Group 1: Market Activity - On December 9, the total iron ore transactions at major ports in the country reached 1.137 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.25%. The forward spot transactions amounted to 1.567 million tons [2] - In November 2025, amidst a general economic slowdown and weak demand in the steel industry, the total iron ore exports from major supplying countries (Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and India) amounted to 117 million tons, a decrease of 6% compared to October's 124.45 million tons [2] Group 2: Company Insights - Rio Tinto, the world's largest iron ore supplier, announced that the first batch of goods from the Simandou project has set sail from Guinea [2] Group 3: Institutional Perspectives - Yong'an Futures noted that the iron ore supply and demand dynamics are not significantly contradictory, with seasonal shipping patterns maintained. The expectation of increased shipments from major mines in the fourth quarter may lead to a temporary accumulation of iron ore, while the current iron ore basis is relatively large, indicating that futures prices reflect accumulation expectations [3] - Zhengxin Futures highlighted a dual weakness in supply and demand for iron ore, with significant downward pressure from declining demand. Although some high furnace products remain profitable, the slowdown in seasonal outflows is suppressing steel mill production rates, leading to a forecast of potential price corrections for iron ore [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the iron ore industry is "Oscillating" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the iron ore price fluctuated within a narrow range. The supply - side global shipments declined, which supported the price. However, the slow - down in the growth rate of hot metal production restricted the upward price movement. As the pre - National Day steel mill restocking nears the end, port inventories are rapidly accumulating. Attention should be paid to the impact of downstream demand and coal price changes on the ore price [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - As of Friday's close, the main iron ore contract 2601 closed at 790 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.13%. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was 103.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.3. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 785 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1][5] Supply - The latest data from Mysteel shows that the global iron ore shipments this period were 33.248 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.483 million tons, a decline of 6.95%. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions decreased significantly. The arrivals at 45 ports this period were 26.75 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.127 million tons [1][8] Demand - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows that the blast furnace operating rate was 84.45%, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.22 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.86%, a week - on - week increase of 0.51 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.41 percentage points. The steel mill profit rate was 58.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.86 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 39.4 percentage points. The daily average hot metal output was 2.4236 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.0134 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.175 million tons [1][10][11] Inventory - According to Mysteel statistics, the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports nationwide was 140.0028 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.992 million tons. The daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.364 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0277 million tons [2][13] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating - Inter - delivery: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for iron ore is "sideways" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - High iron ore prices lead to relatively loose supply, high hot metal production shows strong consumption resilience, and overall inventory remains at a medium level [2] - Considering downstream pre - holiday stockpiling, iron ore prices will remain volatile in the short term. The supply from Simandou will exert significant pressure on long - term prices. Attention should be paid to the changes in floating cargo volume and pre - holiday stockpiling [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, iron ore prices fluctuated strongly. The Mysteel 62% Australian powder forward price index was $106.25/ton, up $0.85/ton week - on - week, a rise of 0.81%. The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 799.0 yuan/ton, up 5.0 yuan/ton week - on - week, a rise of 0.63% [1][5] Supply - The latest data from Mysteel shows that the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.73 million tons this period, an increase of 8.17 million tons week - on - week. The arrival volume at 45 ports was 23.62 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons week - on - week [1][8] Demand - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows that the blast furnace operating rate was 83.98%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points week - on - week and 5.75 percentage points year - on - year; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, an increase of 0.17 percentage points week - on - week and 6.29 percentage points year - on - year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 48.91 percentage points year - on - year; the daily average hot metal output was 2.4102 million tons, an increase of 0.0047 million tons week - on - week and 0.1764 million tons year - on - year [1][10][11] Inventory - Mysteel statistics show that the total iron ore inventory at 45 ports in the country was 138.0108 million tons, a decrease of 0.4839 million tons week - on - week; the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.3917 million tons, an increase of 0.0789 million tons week - on - week [1][13]

Core Viewpoint - Iron ore prices experienced fluctuations last week, with a slight decline in the price index, indicating a volatile market environment [1]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of May 24, the iron ore price index was recorded at 777.56, reflecting a decrease of 0.88% compared to the previous period [1]. - The closing price for the main iron ore futures contract on May 26 was 706.5 yuan/ton, down by 2.21%, with a daily trading volume of 456,783 contracts [1]. Group 2: Inventory and Port Data - On May 23, iron ore port inventory was reported at 145.9183 million tons, a decrease of 1.5516 million tons from the previous trading day [2]. - From May 19 to May 25, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 Chinese ports reached 23.441 million tons, an increase of 637,000 tons compared to the previous period [2]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Analysis - Major mining companies have significantly increased shipments, entering a peak shipping period, while non-mainstream mines have shown a steady recovery, although their impact on overall supply remains limited [3]. - Domestic steel demand is under pressure due to a significant decline in new construction starts in April, which affects steel consumption [3]. - Manufacturing steel demand continues to grow, supported by high growth rates in equipment purchases, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 18.2% in the first four months [3].