Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of lead is neutral, with short - term lateral movement under weak supply and demand and a bullish outlook in the medium term [3] Core Viewpoints - The loss of secondary lead is severe, and the operating rate is low. The price of waste batteries is suppressed by negative demand feedback, and the profit and loss of secondary lead is at a historical low. The supply of primary lead remains stable at a relatively high level in the same period of history. In the short term, the willingness to resume production of secondary lead is low, and consumption is in the off - season, with limited demand for lead ingots. In the short term, the supply and demand are both weak, and the lead price is adjusted within a narrow range. In the medium - to - long term, the long - position profit - loss ratio is favorable, and the subsequent strengthening of consumption is expected to provide support [5] Summary by Directory 1. Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, Position) - **Price and Price Change**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract last week was 16,810 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.80%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,875 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.39%. The closing price of LmeS - lead3 last week was 1,981 dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.58% [6] - **Transaction and Position Change**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract last Friday was 26,878 lots, a decrease of 5,836 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 34,107 lots, a decrease of 9,497 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - lead3 last Friday was 3,836 lots, a decrease of 1,273 lots compared with the previous week, and the position was 154,029 lots, an increase of 7,000 lots [6] - **Spread Change**: The LME lead spot premium last Friday was - 28.49 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.56 dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The spread between near - month and continuous - first contract was - 35 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of near - month to continuous - first inter - period arbitrage was 77.82 yuan/ton [6] - **Inventory Change**: The SHFE lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 43,860 tons, a decrease of 369 tons compared with the previous week. The SHFE total inventory was 51,291 tons, an increase of 1,480 tons. The social inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons. The LME lead inventory was 284,075 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 25.25%, a decrease of 4.36% [6] 2. Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Waste Battery, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume, production, inventory, operating rate, processing fees, and profits of lead concentrate are presented in the data. The import volume of lead concentrate shows different trends in different years, and the domestic production also fluctuates. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang and the operating rate also change over time [25][26] - **Primary Lead**: The production of primary lead shows an upward trend in some years, and the weekly operating rate also fluctuates. The production of primary lead by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is also presented [27][28] - **Secondary Lead**: The production of secondary lead shows different trends in different years, and the operating rate is relatively low at present. The price of waste batteries, the cost, profit and loss, and raw material inventory of secondary lead are also analyzed. The loss of secondary lead is severe, which restricts the operating rate [27][29] - **Import and Export**: The export volume, import profit and loss, net import volume, and monthly import volume of lead ingots are presented. The import and export situation of lead shows different trends in different years [30] 3. Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Battery, Terminal) - **Lead - Acid Battery**: The export volume, operating rate, and finished - product inventory days of lead - acid batteries are presented. The export volume of lead - acid batteries shows different trends in different years, the operating rate fluctuates, and the finished - product inventory days of enterprises and dealers are relatively high [33] - **Terminal Consumption**: The production volume of automobiles and motorcycles and the actual consumption volume of lead are presented. The production volume of automobiles and motorcycles shows different trends in different years, and the actual consumption volume of lead also fluctuates [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the lead industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lead market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand in the short - term, with lead prices undergoing narrow adjustments. The deep losses of secondary lead smelters, marginal reduction in supply, and the inversion of refined - scrap lead prices limit the downside of lead prices. Weak replacement consumption also restricts the short - term upward momentum. In the medium - to long - term, there is a good risk - reward ratio for long positions, and future strengthening of consumption is expected to provide support. Attention should be paid to whether there is a mid - year sales rush in June and the strength of consumption during the peak season in the third quarter [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading Aspects (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Trading Volume, Open Interest) - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract last week was 16,780 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.96%. The night - session closing price was 16,710 yuan/ton, with a night - session decline of 0.42%. The closing price of LmeS - Lead 3 last week was 1,978.5 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.74%. The LME lead cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 26.98 dollars/ton last Friday, a decrease of 2.72 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The spread between secondary lead and primary lead was 25 yuan/ton last Friday, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Lead warehouse receipt inventory last week was 41,799 tons, an increase of 2,380 tons compared to the previous week. The total Shanghai Lead inventory was 47,936 tons, an increase of 1,436 tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory was 53,900 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons compared to the previous week. The LME lead inventory was 281,275 tons, a decrease of 4,900 tons compared to the previous week, and the ratio of cancelled warrants was 16.00%, a decrease of 2.33 percentage points compared to the previous week [8] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract last Friday was 30,853 lots, a decrease of 22,078 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 49,975 lots, a decrease of 3,355 lots compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Lead 3 was 4,570 lots, a decrease of 2,201 lots compared to the previous week. The open interest was 147,151 lots, an increase of 2,190 lots compared to the previous week [8] 3.2 Lead Supply (Lead Concentrate, Scrap Batteries, Primary Lead, Secondary Lead) - **Lead Concentrate**: The import volume of lead concentrate shows certain fluctuations over the years. The inventory of lead concentrate in Lianyungang also fluctuates. The domestic lead concentrate treatment charge (TC) was 600 yuan/ton last week, unchanged from the previous week. The import lead concentrate TC decreased by 10 dollars/ton compared to the previous week. The profit of imported lead concentrate and domestic lead concentrate also shows different trends [26][27] - **Primary Lead and Secondary Lead**: The production and weekly operating rates of primary lead and secondary lead show different trends over time. Currently, the secondary lead is in a state of significant losses, and the operating rate has been further adjusted downwards. The prices of scrap batteries have been suppressed by negative feedback from demand [7][28][30] 3.3 Lead Demand (Lead - Acid Batteries, End - Users) - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The export volume of lead - acid batteries, operating rates, and finished - product inventory days of battery enterprises and terminal distributors all show different trends over the years. Currently, the lead - acid battery industry is in the off - season, and the finished - product inventory of battery enterprises and terminal distributors is difficult to deplete. The downstream feedback indicates that consumption is moderately weaker than in previous years, and the operating rate is under pressure, resulting in limited procurement of lead ingots by downstream enterprises [7][34] - **End - Users**: The production of automobiles and motorcycles shows certain trends over the years, which also affects the actual consumption of lead [35]