铅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2025年08月17日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铅：供应减少逻辑发酵，支撑价格 强弱分析：中性，价格区间：16600-17000元/吨 ◆ 风险点：东南亚等海外消费崩塌，严重影响中国铅酸蓄电池出口。 再生铅开工率处于历史同期低位 沪铅09合约持仓库存比高位 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 01-01 01-13 01-24 02-04 02-16 02-26 03-10 03-21 04-01 04-12 04-23 05-05 05-16 05-27 06-07 06-18 06-30 07-11 07-22 08-02 08-13 08-26 09-09 09-23 10-08 10-22 11-05 11-19 12-03 12-17 12-31 % 再生铅开工率 2021 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lead prices is primarily driven by supply constraints and expectations of improved consumption as the traditional peak season approaches [1][2][3][4]. Supply Side Analysis - Supply constraints are a major factor in the recent strength of lead prices, with slow recovery in recycled lead production due to industry losses and raw material shortages [1][2][3]. - The original lead smelting sector is experiencing regular maintenance, which has led to a decrease in inventory levels and supports price increases [4][7]. - The tight supply of waste batteries continues to exert upward pressure on prices, while the profitability of recycled lead remains under pressure, leading to reduced production [4][8]. Demand Side Analysis - The downstream lead-acid battery industry is transitioning from a low-demand season to a peak season, with some companies planning to increase production in anticipation of higher demand [5][6]. - Current consumption in the lead-acid battery market is still subdued, but there are expectations for improvement as summer approaches and replacement demand increases [6][8]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with battery manufacturers considering price adjustments based on current high lead prices, but actual demand recovery remains to be seen [6][7]. Inventory Dynamics - Domestic lead inventory levels have not shown significant accumulation, providing support for lead prices, with expectations of improved consumption in the third quarter [5][8]. - The inventory situation is influenced by supply-side reductions, with recycled lead production cuts leading to lower inventory levels compared to previous years [8][9]. - The market is currently in a state of equilibrium, with supply constraints preventing significant inventory build-up despite weak demand [7][9].