Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Shanghai Copper Daily Review 20251208: Tightening Supply - Demand Expectations of Electrolytic Copper in Non - US Regions Support Copper Prices" [2] Group 2: Market Data Shanghai Copper Futures - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 92,780, up 1,800 from the previous day; trading volume was 188,062 lots, down 37,269; open interest was 236,494 lots, up 1,924; inventory was 30,936 tons, down 1,203; the basis was - 1,195, down 1,460 [3] - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 91,585, up 340; the average opening discount of SMM flat - water copper was 110, down 10; the average opening premium of SMM premium copper was 240, unchanged [3] London Copper - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 11,665, up 231 from the previous day; the 0 - 3 - month contract spread was 23.05, down 27.39; the 3 - 15 - month contract spread was 279, up 44.49; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.9537, down 0.00 [3] COMEX Copper - On December 5, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.454, up 0.06 from the previous day; the total inventory was 436,853 tons, up 2,570 [3] Group 3: Core View - Due to production disturbances in multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, the China copper concentrate import index remains negative, leading to a tight supply - demand expectation for domestic copper concentrates. Although the supply of scrap copper has increased and the processing fees for domestic crude copper or anode plates have risen, and the maintenance capacity of copper smelters in December has decreased compared to the previous month, on the demand side, downstream buyers make rigid - need purchases due to high copper prices. In terms of inventory, the social inventory of electrolytic copper in China has decreased compared to last week, while the inventory of electrolytic copper in the London Metal Exchange and COMEX has increased. Considering the expected future interest - rate cuts by the Fed, the price of Shanghai copper may be cautiously bullish [3] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously, pay attention to the support levels of 83,000 - 85,000 and the resistance levels of 90,000 - 97,000/107,000 for Shanghai copper; the support level of 10,100 - 10,500 and the resistance level of 12,300 - 13,500 for London copper; and the support level of 4.8 - 5.0 and the resistance level of 5.5 - 6.0 for US copper [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the Fed's hawkish future interest - rate cut path, disruptions in overseas copper mines are leading to an expected supply - demand imbalance, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to be more likely to rise than fall [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,960, up 40 from the previous day; trading volume was 51,727 hands, down 11,472; open interest was 172,444 hands, down 850; inventory was 27,419 tons, down 308; the basis was 85, down 5; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 80,045, up 35 [2] - **London Copper**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 10,320, up 326.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 month contract spread was - 31.37, up 41.74; the 3 - 15 month contract spread was - 67.22, up 93.07; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 7.7481, down 0.25 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.8275, up 0.18 from the previous day; the total inventory was 318,229, down 56 [2] 3.2 Important Information - A fatal mudslide occurred at the Grasberg mine of Freeport McMoRan's Indonesian subsidiary. Freeport expects to resume production to pre - accident levels by 2027 at the earliest, and the copper and gold production in 2026 may decline by about 35% compared to pre - accident estimates [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis - **Supply**: The accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia on September 8 may reduce the 2026 copper and gold production by about 35%. There are disruptions in the production of multiple domestic and foreign copper mines, leading to a negative and rising China copper concentrate import index, a tight supply - demand expectation for copper concentrates and scrap copper, a decline in processing fees for refined copper or anode plates, and an increase in the maintenance capacity of copper smelters from September to October [2] - **Demand**: The expectation of the traditional consumption peak season is leading to a recovery in demand in some copper processing industries [2] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of Chinese electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week; the inventory of LME electrolytic copper decreased compared to last week, while the COMEX copper inventory increased [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is recommended to take long positions when the price drops. Pay attention to the support levels around 77,000 - 79,000 and resistance levels around 81,000 - 83,000 for Shanghai copper; support levels around 9,600 - 9,900 and resistance levels around 10,200 - 10,500 for London copper; support levels around 4.3 - 4.5 and resistance levels around 4.8 - 5.0 for US copper [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - US employment market weakness boosts Fed's interest rate cut expectations, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppresses downstream demand, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign electrolytic copper fluctuates upward, suggesting that Shanghai copper prices may still have room to fall. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,400 yuan, up 360 yuan from the previous day; trading volume was 80,943 lots, down 28,068 lots; open interest was 167,671 lots, down 8,522 lots; inventory was 20,349 tons, up 727 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,330 yuan, down 235 yuan [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The Shanghai copper basis was -70 yuan, down 595 yuan; Guangzhou electrolytic copper spot premium was -15 yuan, up 5 yuan; North China electrolytic copper spot premium was -120 yuan, down 10 yuan; East China electrolytic copper spot premium was 35 yuan, unchanged; the spread between near - month and continuous - first Shanghai copper was -10 yuan, down 70 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,633 US dollars, up 26 US dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0 tons, down 141,750 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was -49.25 US dollars, up 1.51 US dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was -142.93 US dollars, down 15.18 US dollars; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1387, up 0.02 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.443 US dollars, down 0.19 US dollars; the total inventory was 259,681 tons, up 3,733 tons [2]. Industry News - **Policy Impact**: Due to the US government's decision on July 30, 2025, to exempt imported electrolytic copper from tariffs, the spread between COMEX copper and LME copper collapsed, leading a large amount of electrolytic copper to be transferred to the LME delivery warehouse in New Orleans [2]. - **Company Expansion**: Codelco planned to invest $5.7 billion in 2022 to expand El Teniente. As of March 31, 2025, the Andes Norte project was 73% complete, the Andesita project was 70% complete and started operation in February 2025, and the Diamante project was 43% complete. The expansion is expected to add 2 - 3 tons of copper production in 2025 and reach 15 tons after full - production, with the annual output expected to reach 50 tons after all projects are put into operation [2]. - **Accident**: A Chilean earthquake caused a casualty accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine, resulting in 6 deaths and halting nearby activities for investigation [2]. Investment Strategy - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged in January. Import tariffs pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the annual rates of US consumer - end inflation CPI and core CPI in June. Due to the possible significant downward revision or far - below - expected new non - farm payrolls in June - July, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, increasing the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts in September, October, and December [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In August, the domestic production (import) of copper concentrates increased month - on - month, the import index of Chinese copper concentrates was negative and higher than the previous week, and the port copper concentrate throughput (in - port, inventory) in the world (China) decreased (increased, decreased) compared with the previous week. The restriction on high - quality scrap steel exports in Europe and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff negotiations affected scrap copper imports, and the import window for scrap copper was closed. Some copper smelters suspended production, and domestic smelters' rough - smelting maintenance capacity in August may decrease month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in domestic rough copper production (import) in August [2]. - **Trading Advice**: Hold previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and COMEX copper [2]