Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous sector experienced a correction after four consecutive days of gains, with the non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) declining by 1.79% as of 10:43 AM on December 25, following significant inflows of over 150 million yuan in the previous days [1][3]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw most of its constituent stocks decline, with notable drops exceeding 2% for companies like Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium, while Northern Rare Earth experienced a slight increase [3]. - The ETF's latest scale surpassed 3.8 billion yuan, marking a new high and leading among similar index ETFs [1]. Commodity Market Insights - The spot gold price reached a record high of $4,525.70 per ounce before a slight decline, while silver continued its strong performance, marking its fourth consecutive trading day of record highs [4]. - LME copper prices rose by 0.6% to $12,133 per ton, achieving a third consecutive day of gains [4]. Company Developments - Jiangxi Copper announced its acquisition of SolGold plc for approximately £867 million (about $1.17 billion), targeting the Cascabel project in Ecuador, which is considered one of the most promising undeveloped copper mines globally [5]. - Capstone Mining's Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile is facing potential strikes due to unresolved labor contract negotiations, with a planned production of 29,000 to 32,000 tons of cathode copper by 2025 [5]. Industry Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global copper demand to reach 36 million tons by 2030, a 53% increase from 2020, while supply is expected to face a "depletion crisis" [6]. - The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve chair is anticipated to favor significant interest rate cuts, which could influence metal prices positively [6]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its strategic value, with a copper content of 31% and gold content of 14%, leading among similar ETFs [13]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return of 86.28% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, indicating a favorable investment environment [15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is expected to tighten again next year, leading to new highs in copper concentrate and refined copper prices, with a projected shortfall of approximately 500,000 tons in the global copper concentrate market [1] - The limited supply growth and increasing demand from new smelters outside of China are the main reasons for the anticipated shortfall, which is consistent with this year's situation [1] - The refined copper market is currently experiencing an oversupply of 350,000 to 400,000 tons, a significant revision from the previous estimate of a 300,000-ton shortfall made in May [1] Group 2 - Mercuria, along with other energy traders like BGN and Gunvor, is expanding into metal trading, betting on structural changes in the global energy system to be profitable [2] - Over the past 12 months, Mercuria has invested nearly $2 billion, trading approximately 1 million tons of copper and 1.5 million tons of copper concentrate [2]