Core Viewpoint - The A-share non-ferrous sector experienced a correction after four consecutive days of gains, with the non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) declining by 1.79% as of 10:43 AM on December 25, following significant inflows of over 150 million yuan in the previous days [1][3]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) saw most of its constituent stocks decline, with notable drops exceeding 2% for companies like Huayou Cobalt and Ganfeng Lithium, while Northern Rare Earth experienced a slight increase [3]. - The ETF's latest scale surpassed 3.8 billion yuan, marking a new high and leading among similar index ETFs [1]. Commodity Market Insights - The spot gold price reached a record high of $4,525.70 per ounce before a slight decline, while silver continued its strong performance, marking its fourth consecutive trading day of record highs [4]. - LME copper prices rose by 0.6% to $12,133 per ton, achieving a third consecutive day of gains [4]. Company Developments - Jiangxi Copper announced its acquisition of SolGold plc for approximately £867 million (about $1.17 billion), targeting the Cascabel project in Ecuador, which is considered one of the most promising undeveloped copper mines globally [5]. - Capstone Mining's Mantoverde copper-gold mine in Chile is facing potential strikes due to unresolved labor contract negotiations, with a planned production of 29,000 to 32,000 tons of cathode copper by 2025 [5]. Industry Outlook - The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects global copper demand to reach 36 million tons by 2030, a 53% increase from 2020, while supply is expected to face a "depletion crisis" [6]. - The upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve chair is anticipated to favor significant interest rate cuts, which could influence metal prices positively [6]. Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous 50 ETF (159652) is highlighted for its strategic value, with a copper content of 31% and gold content of 14%, leading among similar ETFs [13]. - The ETF's index has shown a cumulative return of 86.28% since 2022, driven by earnings rather than valuation increases, indicating a favorable investment environment [15].

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | | No | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I | | 11 | P | | 中辉有色观点 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | 黄金 | | 地缘多点开花，美联储立场反复，短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 QE， | | | 长线持有 | 世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重塑， | | ★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 短期白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割逻辑，ETF 资金持续涌入。未来市 | | | 长线持有 | 场押注降息持续和供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期做 | | ★★ | | 多逻辑不变 | | | | 美非农数据即将公布，市场情绪谨慎，国内 2026 年铜精矿 TC 长协谈判焦灼，LME | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 注销仓单占比维持 40%高位，隔夜铜跳空高开低走，建议逢高移动止盈，中长期， | | ★ | | 在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景 ...

中辉有色观点 | | | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 尽管俄乌谈判进程或向前迈进，但是短期市场流动性风险偏好较好，美联储或重启 | | | 长线持有 | QE，世界央行三季度买黄金再创新高。印尼提高黄金税率，黄金中长期地缘秩序重 | | ★ | | 塑，不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | | | 国际白银获利离场，盘面走跌。短期白银与黄金走势逻辑劈叉，白银短期交易交割 | | 白银 ★★ | 长线持有 | 逻辑。未来市场押注降息持续和供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期 | | | | 有利，长期做多逻辑不变 | | | | 甲骨文数据中心竣工延迟，市场担忧 AI 泡沫崩盘，多头积极获利了结，铜高位大幅 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 回撤，测试 9 万关口支撑，建议逢高移动止盈，中长期，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需 求爆发背景下对铜依旧看好。 | | | | 宏观情绪转冷，锌精矿加工费持续下调，下游进入消费淡季，整体供需双弱，国内 | | 锌 | 承压 | 淡季去库。短期锌高位回落， ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Under pressure [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Weak [1] - Polysilicon: Strong [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold and silver: The gold - silver ratio is approaching the historical low range, and attention should be paid to fluctuations. Long - term gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reconstruction of the geopolitical pattern. Silver should not be chased high or shorted in the short term, and long - term positions should be held [2][3]. - Copper: The market sentiment is cautious. In the short term, it is recommended to move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound opportunity. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish [4][6]. - Zinc: Macro and sector sentiment has cooled, and zinc prices are under pressure. In the medium and long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][9]. - Aluminum: Terminal demand is weakening, and aluminum prices are falling from high levels. It is recommended to stop profit and wait and see in the short term [10][13]. - Nickel: Nickel prices are under pressure due to off - season inventory. It is recommended to sell on rallies [14][17]. - Lithium carbonate: Total inventory continues to decline, and it is recommended to go long on dips [18][21]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market review**: Silver first broke through $60 per ounce, and traders bet on further Fed easing and supply shortages [2]. - **Basic logic**: Wait for the Fed's interest - rate meeting; US employment data is mixed; central banks continue to buy gold; long - term gold benefits from multiple factors, and silver's trading logic requires caution in the short term [2][3]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 935. Long - term value - oriented positions should continue to be held. Be vigilant about the high - volatility risk of silver [3]. Copper - **Market review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and consolidating [4]. - **Industrial logic**: Global copper concentrate supply remains tight. High copper prices suppress demand, and inventories are accumulating, but there is still a delivery risk [5]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, move the stop - profit for previous long positions and wait for a rebound. In the medium and long term, copper is still bullish. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai copper and London copper [6]. Zinc - **Market review**: Shanghai zinc is falling under pressure [7]. - **Industrial logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees are falling, and supply may shrink. Consumption is in the off - season, and short - term supply and demand are both weak, with inventory declining in the off - season [8]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure. Sell - hedging can be lightly positioned on rallies. In the medium and long term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the price ranges of Shanghai zinc and London zinc [9]. Aluminum - **Market review**: Aluminum prices' rebound is under pressure, and alumina continues to be weak [10]. - **Industrial logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs may increase, and demand is structurally differentiated. For alumina, the supply is in an over - supply situation [12]. - **Strategy recommendation**: In the short term, stop profit and wait and see. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory and the price range of Shanghai aluminum [13]. Nickel - **Market review**: Nickel prices' rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is under pressure [14]. - **Industrial logic**: Indonesia plans to cut nickel production, but inventories are rising. Stainless steel consumption is in the off - season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long term [16]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to the change in stainless - steel inventory and the price range of nickel [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market review**: The main contract LC2605 opened high and closed low, and the commodity market was weak in the afternoon [18]. - **Industrial logic**: Total inventory has declined for 16 consecutive weeks. Terminal demand is strong, and prices have no room for a deep decline. There will be a correction recently, waiting for an opportunity to go long after stabilization [20]. - **Strategy recommendation**: Go long on dips in the range of [91000 - 95000] [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Tin: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure at high levels [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level correction [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term support logic for gold remains unchanged due to repeated internal Fed discussions on interest rate cuts and new geopolitical variables. Silver follows gold and other non - ferrous metals, with greater elasticity. Copper has long - term upward potential despite high inventories. Zinc is under short - term pressure and is expected to have an oversupply situation in the long run. Aluminum is under pressure at high levels due to the off - season effect. Nickel's supply - demand surplus persists, and its price remains weak. Lithium carbonate has short - term correction space [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Information**: SHFE gold is at 926.94, down 0.91% from the previous value and 0.27% week - on - week; COMEX gold is at 4063, down 0.34% from the previous value and 0.11% week - on - week. SHFE silver is at 11680, down 3.07% from the previous value and 2.12% week - on - week; COMEX silver is at 49.66, down 0.01 from the previous value and 1.74% week - on - week. The dollar index is at 100.15, down 0.07% from the previous value and up 0.62% week - on - week [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: There are many data and event fluctuations, and there is support below for gold and silver. The long - term support for gold comes from Fed interest rate policy uncertainty, Japanese economic stimulus, and geopolitical factors [1][3]. Copper - **Market Review**: The overnight closing price of SHFE copper rose. The latest price of SHFE copper is 86180 yuan/ton, up 0.21% from the previous day; LME copper is at 10778 dollars/ton, up 0.86% from the previous day [5]. - **Industrial Logic**: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with the latest TC at - 41.72 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2 dollars/ton. In October, China imported 245.1 million tons of copper concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The downstream actively purchased at low prices after the copper price decline, and the weekly operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 70.07%, a month - on - month increase of 3.19% [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Backed by the 85,000 yuan mark, try to go long on dips. In the medium - to - long term, be bullish on copper. The short - term range for SHFE copper is [85,000, 88,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper, it is [10,500, 11,000] dollars/ton [1][7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc was under pressure and fluctuated narrowly. The latest price of SHFE zinc is 22350 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day; LME zinc is at 2992 dollars/ton, down 0.38% from the previous day [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrates is short - term tight, and the processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates has continued to decline. In October, the output of refined zinc increased by 1.71 million tons month - on - month to 61.72 million tons. Consumption has entered the off - season, the domestic zinc ingot export window has opened, and the LME zinc inventory has increased to 47325 tons, alleviating the soft squeeze risk [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, zinc is under pressure and fluctuates narrowly, waiting for more macro - level guidance. In the medium - to - long term, maintain the view of shorting on rebounds. The range for SHFE zinc is [22,000, 22,600] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc, it is [2950, 3050] dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: The aluminum price was under pressure at high levels, and alumina showed a weak trend at low levels. The latest price of LME aluminum is 2790.5 dollars/ton, down 0.57% from the previous value; SHFE aluminum is at 21340 yuan/ton, down 0.88% from the previous value [11]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production by 21 million tons and are expected to cut production further in March next year. The domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in November is 62.1 million tons, flat compared to last week. For alumina, the bauxite shipment in Guinea is expected to increase, and the domestic alumina market remains in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies for SHFE aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The operating range for the main contract is [21,000 - 21,600] yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The nickel price continued to be weak, and stainless steel rebounded and then declined. The latest price of LME nickel is 14405 dollars/ton, down 0.35% from the previous value; SHFE nickel is at 114050 yuan/ton, down 1.15% from the previous value [15]. - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of a Fed interest rate cut at the end of the year has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026. The global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has gradually weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the change in stainless steel inventory. The operating range for the main nickel contract is [113,000 - 116,000] yuan/ton [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opened low and closed at the daily limit down [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The total inventory has declined for 14 consecutive weeks, but there is obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. The production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and the operating rate still has room to rise. Terminal demand remains strong, but the growth rate of new energy vehicle sales in November has slowed down [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait and see in the range of [89,500 - 93,000] yuan/ton [22]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term holding [1] - Silver: Long - term holding [1] - Copper: Long - term holding [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: High - level under pressure [1] - Aluminum: High - level under pressure [1] - Nickel: Weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: High - level oscillation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish [1] Core Views - The market is in a liquidity vacuum, magnifying bearish sentiment. Short - term, the US employment situation is the biggest concern, and the probability of interest rate cuts has decreased [1][3]. - Gold has few short - term major drivers, and long - term trading is recommended. In the long - run, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, and central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its long - term strategic allocation value [1][4]. - Silver has followed the decline in the short - term due to a lack of market data. In the long - run, global policy stimulus will boost demand, and there is a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is under short - term pressure and is testing the support at 85,000 yuan. In the medium - to - long - term, the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand are bullish factors [1][7]. - Zinc is under pressure in the short - term due to weak demand in the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, supply is increasing while demand is decreasing [1][11]. - Lead is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The production of some lead smelters in the north has recovered, while the production of large and medium - sized lead battery enterprises has decreased, leading to an increase in social inventory and short - term pressure on prices [1]. - Tin is under high - level pressure in the short - term due to slow resumption of overseas tin mines, tight concentrates in Yunnan, and weak downstream electronic consumption demand [1]. - Aluminum is under high - level pressure in the short - term due to the continuous surplus of upstream alumina, high operating rates of domestic electrolytic aluminum, and a slowdown in inventory reduction in mainstream consumption areas [1]. - Nickel is weak due to the continuous increase in overseas LME nickel inventory, high domestic nickel inventory, and weakening downstream stainless steel consumption [1][18]. - Industrial silicon is in a tight - balance range - bound state in November. Supply has increased by 1.67% month - on - month, and there are rumors of production cuts in downstream industries [1]. - Polysilicon is in high - level oscillation. Spot market performance is flat, and downstream profit losses may limit demand, but there are still expectations of capacity integration [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices have fallen from highs due to profit - taking and exchange window guidance. The total inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks, and it is advisable to go long after stabilization [1][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Short - term trading lacks an anchor, bearish sentiment is magnified, and gold and silver are in range - bound adjustment [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US employment data shows an increase in initial and continued jobless claims, and there is a large - scale layoff warning. There is a liquidity vacuum due to changes in the Fed's attitude and domestic political situation. In the long - run, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3][4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, pay attention to the support of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11,500. Long - term value - allocated positions should be held, and short - term trading should be cautious [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper is under pressure and adjusting [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased both month - on - month and more than expected. Consumption is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises'开工 rates are weak. The global copper concentrate supply is tight, and overseas copper inventory is increasing [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, copper is under pressure and testing the support at 85,000 yuan. In the medium - to - long - term, it is still bullish. Short - term, pay attention to the ranges [84,500, 87,500] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [10,500, 11,000] US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc is oscillating weakly [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production has declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have continued to fall. Refined zinc enterprises are in a loss state. Consumption is in the off - season, and overseas LME zinc inventory has increased [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Zinc is under pressure and running weakly due to a cold macro and sector sentiment and weak demand in the off - season. In the medium - to - long - term, maintain the view of selling on rallies. Pay attention to the ranges [22,000, 22,500] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2,950, 3,050] US dollars/ton for London zinc [11]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina is in a low - level weak trend [13]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the Fed's year - end interest rate cut expectation has weakened. Overseas electrolytic aluminum plants have cut production, and domestic inventory has increased slightly. The demand side shows a structural differentiation. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea has ended, and domestic bauxite production has resumed. The market is in a surplus state in the short - term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short - term. Pay attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21,100 - 21,800] yuan/ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continue to be weak, and stainless steel is under pressure at a low level [17]. - **Industrial Logic**: The Fed's year - end interest rate cut expectation has weakened. Indonesia plans to lower the nickel production target in 2026, and global refined nickel inventory has reached a five - year high. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has faded, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is advisable to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [114,000 - 116,000] yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 rose and then fell, with the late - session gain narrowing to less than 1% [21]. - **Industrial Logic**: The fundamentals remain in a tight supply - demand situation, and the total inventory has been decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. Domestic production has reached a new high, but the shortage of raw materials limits the production increase. Terminal market demand is strong, and the market focuses on the demand side [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for opportunities to go long during callbacks or sideways consolidation in the range [91,000 - 94,000] yuan/ton [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual metals, it provides specific views such as long - term holding for gold, silver, and copper; rebound - pressured for zinc; high - level pressured for lead, tin, and aluminum; weak for nickel; range - bound for industrial silicon; high - level oscillating for polysilicon; and bullish for lithium carbonate [1]. Core Views - The core view of the report is that the prices of various metals are affected by multiple factors including Fed's monetary policy, industry supply - demand relationship, and macro - economic data. Different metals have different price trends and investment strategies. For example, gold and silver are suitable for long - term value investment, while zinc is recommended for short - selling on rebounds [1]. Summary by Metal Categories Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold and silver prices fell and then oscillated due to a lack of short - term trading anchors and the amplification of negative news from Fed officials. SHFE gold dropped 2.49% and COMEX gold fell 0.96%; SHFE silver declined 3.57% and COMEX silver decreased 0.01 [2][3]. - **Underlying Logic**: Fed hawkish officials' statements reduced the probability of a December rate cut, but some supported rate cuts. There was a lack of US economic data, leading to sentiment - based trading. In the long run, gold benefits from global monetary easing, a decline in the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [4][5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term value investors should hold their positions, while short - term investors should be cautious. Short - term attention should be paid to the support levels of domestic gold at 920 and silver around 11500 [5]. Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper oscillated and declined. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 0.10%, LME copper dropped 0.73%, and COMEX copper fell 1.20% [6][7]. - **Underlying Logic**: In October, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% month - on - month, and it is expected to decline further in November. Consumption entered the off - season, and the global copper concentrate supply remained tight. However, high copper prices restricted demand, and the global visible copper inventory was at a historically high level [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Given the Fed's hawkish stance, industry hedging should add option protection, reduce positions, and control risks strictly. In the long - term, copper is still optimistic. Short - term attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai copper at [84500, 87500] yuan/ton and LME copper at [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [8]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. The price of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 0.22%, and LME zinc dropped 0.83% [9][10]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production declined, and domestic zinc concentrate processing fees continued to fall. Consumption entered the off - season, and the domestic zinc ingot export window opened. Zinc was in a situation of weak supply and demand in the short term [10]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Due to the Fed's hawkish stance and poor domestic macro - data, zinc is pressured to run weakly. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase while demand decreases. It is recommended to short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the price range of Shanghai zinc at [22000, 22500] and LME zinc at [2950, 3050] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum prices were pressured to decline, and alumina stabilized at a low level. The price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.53%, and LME aluminum dropped 0.38% [12][13]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased, and domestic production remained high. The destocking of aluminum ingots in mainstream consumption areas slowed down, and demand entered the off - season. The alumina market was in an oversupply situation in the short term [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term, paying attention to the change in aluminum ingot social inventory. The main operating range is [21200 - 22000] [15]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel prices continued to weaken, and stainless steel rebounded at a low level. The price of the Shanghai nickel main contract decreased by 0.11%, and LME nickel dropped 0.40% [16][17]. - **Underlying Logic**: Overseas Fed's year - end rate - cut expectation weakened. Global refined nickel inventory reached a five - year high. The stainless steel market entered the off - season, and downstream demand was weak [18]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits gradually on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [115000 - 117000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2601 opened high and closed at the daily limit, with significant position - increasing and upward movement [21]. - **Underlying Logic**: The supply - demand situation remained tight, with total inventory decreasing for 13 consecutive weeks and the decline accelerating. Terminal market demand was strong, and the impact of supply resumption was weakened [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Existing long positions should take profits on rallies, and new positions should wait for opportunities to go long during pullbacks or sideways consolidation in the range of [92000 - 99000] [23].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term long position [1] - Silver: Long - term long position [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound under pressure, long - term sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Rebound [1] - Tin: Relatively strong [1] - Aluminum: Rise and then fall [1] - Nickel: Relatively weak [1] - Industrial silicon: Range - bound [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: High - level operation [1] Core Views - Gold has support due to eliminated US government shutdown risk and liquidity crisis, but short - term upside is limited. Long - term strategic allocation value remains due to geopolitical order reshaping and central bank buying [1][2]. - Silver's long - term long position is recommended as the London market squeeze risk is removed, and global policy stimulates demand with a continuous supply - demand gap [1]. - Copper is expected to be bullish in the long - term due to tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand. In the short - term, it is recommended to go long on dips near the moving average [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure as short - term supply is tight while demand weakens in the off - season, and long - term supply is expected to increase while demand decreases [1][9]. - Lead's price is under pressure in the short - term as production recovers and imports arrive, but consumption is dragged down by mid - large lead battery enterprise production cuts [1]. - Tin's price may rise and then fall in the short - term as overseas tin mine复产 is slow and downstream traditional electronic consumption demand is poor [1]. - Aluminum's price is likely to rise and then fall as overseas production cuts occur, but domestic production remains high and consumption is transitioning from peak to off - season [1][13]. - Nickel's price is relatively weak as overseas inventory is at a high level, domestic inventory accumulates, and downstream stainless steel consumption is weak [1][17]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range in November as the supply is in a tight balance, and downstream demand provides some support [1]. - Polysilicon is cautiously bearish as production cuts are in line with expectations, and downstream price cuts cause negative feedback [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to remain at a high level as the supply - demand situation improves, and inventory has been decreasing for 12 weeks [1][21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Liquidity crisis is resolved, but data is missing, providing support for precious metals. Short - term upward movement is limited due to lack of new drivers [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US government shutdown is approaching an end; Japan's monetary policy may shift; UK employment data is poor, and rate cuts are expected. China's central bank has been increasing gold reserves. Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [2][3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long - term value - based positions should be held. Short - term, domestic gold has support at 920, and silver has strong support at 11400 [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates at a high level [6]. - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, global major copper mine enterprises' production decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and this may continue in Q4. Refined copper supply is shrinking. Consumption is in the off - season, and downstream开工 is weak. Copper is included in the US critical minerals list [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: With a weakening US dollar, copper is expected to be bullish. It is recommended to go long on dips near the moving average and hold long - term strategic positions. Industrial hedging should use options for protection [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc's rebound is under pressure [9]. - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is tightening in the short - term, and processing fees are falling. Consumption is in the off - season, and both domestic and overseas inventories are increasing [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Long positions should be closed at high prices. In the long - term, sell on rallies as supply is expected to increase and demand to decrease [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum price rises and then falls, and alumina is relatively weak [12]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminum production is decreasing, and domestic consumption is transitioning from peak to off - season. Alumina market is in an oversupply situation in the short - term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term, take profits on long positions in Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to downstream processing enterprise开工 changes [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel price continues to fall, and stainless steel is weak [16]. - **Industrial Logic**: Global nickel inventory is accumulating, and stainless steel terminal demand is weakening. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens high and closes low with a slight reduction in positions [20]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, and inventory has been decreasing for 12 weeks. New production lines contribute to output growth, and terminal demand is strong [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profits on long positions near the previous high [22].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Tungsten Industry - The tungsten industry has shown outstanding performance, with tungsten concentrate prices increasing by 30% year-on-year in the first three quarters and a quarterly increase of 40% in Q3, reaching a historical high [1][5] - Integrated tungsten companies such as Xiamen Tungsten and China Tungsten High-tech, along with downstream tool companies like Dingtai High-tech and Oko Yi, have seen improvements in gross margins and profitability [1][4] - Integrated tungsten companies reported a gross margin of 19.2% in Q3, up 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while downstream tool companies had a gross margin of 37.7%, an increase of 3.8 percentage points [1][4] Nonferrous Metals Industry - The overall performance of the nonferrous metals industry in Q3 2025 was below expectations, with gold prices rising by only about 3% and aluminum and copper showing marginal increases of 3% and 2% respectively [3] - Despite the underperformance, the tungsten sector stood out, with significant price increases and strong demand [3][5] Petrochemical and Chemical Industry - The petrochemical sector experienced a 1.2% year-on-year decline in revenue in Q3, but net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 29% [11] - Sub-sectors such as fluorochemicals and private refining saw significant profit increases, with fluorochemicals' net profit rising by 320% [11] - The chemical industry has been in a decline for over three years, but profitability is expected to bottom out in 2025 and gradually increase from 2026 [13] Future Outlook Nonferrous Metals - The supply elasticity of nonferrous metals is expected to weaken over the next 3 to 5 years due to constrained supply and increasing demand from sectors like electric power, AI, military, and high-end manufacturing [1][7] - The market outlook for nonferrous metals remains optimistic, with expectations of good performance from metals like gold, copper, aluminum, tungsten, and cobalt from current adjustments until spring 2026 [7] Petrochemical and Chemical - A decline in capital expenditure among petrochemical companies since the end of 2023 suggests a potential turning point in the capacity cycle [12] - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in profitability starting in 2026, driven by significant changes in supply dynamics and reduced capital expenditures [13] Construction Materials - The construction materials sector showed signs of recovery, with revenue and profit declines narrowing significantly in Q3 [19] - The cement sector remains weak domestically but has significant growth potential in overseas markets, particularly in Africa [19][20] Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector has made notable progress in reducing competition, with significant performance disparities among companies [23] - The upcoming peak seasons are expected to improve the performance of express delivery companies significantly [23] Cross-Border Logistics - The cross-border logistics sector faced challenges due to changes in tariff policies, leading to a decline in performance [24] - However, stable tariff policies and upcoming demand peaks in North America and Europe may provide rebound opportunities [24] Additional Insights - The chemical sector is experiencing a significant shift with a focus on reducing capital expenditures and improving profitability through technological upgrades and new project launches [15] - The phosphoric acid market is expected to benefit from strong demand driven by energy storage applications, with high profitability likely to persist due to long construction cycles for new capacity [16] - Companies with relatively low valuations in the chemical sector, such as Wanhua and Hualu, are recommended for potential growth even in a weak demand environment [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report doesn't provide a unified industry - wide investment rating but gives individual ratings for each metal variety: - Long - term long positions are recommended for gold, silver, and copper [1]. - Rebound - selling short is suggested for zinc [1]. - A bearish view is taken on lead, tin, and nickel, with lead under pressure, tin and nickel having a high - level bearish trend [1]. - Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall [1]. - Industrial silicon is expected to trade in a range, and polycrystalline silicon recommends buying on dips [1]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to have a high - level adjustment [1]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various factors such as employment data, government shutdowns, inflation data, and geopolitical situations in the United States, which have an impact on the prices of different metals. It provides investment strategies for each metal based on their supply - demand fundamentals and market trends [1][3][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Variety Gold and Silver - **Core View**: Long - term long positions are recommended. Gold has support due to factors like the US government shutdown, the debate on Trump's tariff legality, and geopolitical tensions. Silver follows related markets and has long - term demand supported by global policies [1][3]. - **Main Logic**: The US employment market is weakening, with a significant increase in corporate lay - offs in October. The uncertainty of Trump's tariff legality may lead to a large - scale tax refund. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the restructuring of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Consider entering the market for the medium and long - term. The support levels are 900 for domestic gold and 11,200 for silver. Hold long - term value - allocation positions [4]. Copper - **Core View**: Long - term holding is recommended, and short - term light - position buying on dips is suggested [1][7]. - **Main Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mining enterprises decreased year - on - year, and this trend is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. The US employment data is weakening, the government shutdown is ongoing, inflation data is lacking, and the Fed's hawkish stance has returned [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips with a light position in the short - term. Hold long - term strategic positions. For industrial hedging, add option protection, reduce positions, and strictly control risks. Short - term attention should be paid to the range of 84,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7]. Zinc - **Core View**: Rebound - selling short is recommended in the medium and long - term, and short - term range - bound trading is expected [1][10]. - **Main Logic**: Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have declined due to smelters' winter stockpiling. The market expects domestic smelters to reduce production in November due to raw material shortages. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand is weakening [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price rebounds. In the medium and long - term, maintain the view of selling short on rebounds. Attention should be paid to the range of 22,200 - 22,800 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 3,000 - 3,100 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10]. Aluminium - **Core View**: Aluminium is expected to rise and then fall in the short - term [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas electrolytic aluminium production has decreased, while China's production capacity remains high. The inventory reduction of aluminium ingots in major consumption areas has slowed down, and consumption is transitioning from the peak season to the off - season [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions when the price of Shanghai aluminium rebounds in the short - term. Pay attention to the operating rate changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 21,000 - 21,800 yuan/ton [14]. Nickel - **Core View**: Nickel is expected to rebound and then fall [1]. - **Main Logic**: Overseas nickel inventories have reached a high level, and domestic refined nickel inventories have been accumulating. The terminal consumption of stainless steel has weakened [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Sell short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 119,000 - 121,000 yuan/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Core View**: Buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Main Logic**: The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally. The total inventory has been decreasing for 11 consecutive weeks, and the destocking amplitude has expanded. Although production is increasing, terminal demand remains strong [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of 79,800 - 82,000 yuan/ton [21].