中辉有色观点 金银：鲍威尔释放利好，金银上涨 | | | 资料来源：Wind，中辉期货 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 鲍威尔讲话超预期，市场上涨，但是短期也缺乏向上的集中性风险事件爆发，中长 | | | 反弹做多 | 期，主要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需 | | ★ | | 求。长期黄金继续战略配置。 | | 白银 | | 情绪积极，白银跟随上涨。美国财政货币双宽政策积极，中长期全球流动性和各国 | | ★ | 反弹做多 | 再工业化需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。由于弹性大，噪音影响 明显。短期关注前高 9500 附近表现。 | | | | 鲍威尔超预期放鸽，美元走弱铜价反弹，短期建议铜多单持有，中长期，铜作为中 | | 铜 ★ | 多单持有 | 美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看好。 | | | | 隔夜受宏观和板块情绪影响，锌止跌反弹，但需求淡季，锌精矿供应增加，下游需 | | 锌 | 反弹 | 求疲软，锌上方空间或有限，关注上方缺口回补情况。中长期看锌供增需减 ...

1. Report Investment Ratings for the Industry - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For gold and silver, short - term "stop - falling and try to go long", long - term strategic allocation for gold and long - term long for silver [1] - For copper, short - term "buy on dips", long - term optimistic [1][8] - For zinc, lead, tin, and nickel, short - term "under pressure", long - term for zinc "sell on rallies" [1] - For aluminum, short - term "rebound" [1] - For industrial silicon, short - term "rebound under pressure" [1] - For polysilicon, "high - level consolidation", buy on dips [1] - For lithium carbonate, "high - level consolidation", hold long positions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: US data is mixed, and there is a lack of new drivers in the short - term, leading to market consolidation [2][3] - **Basic Logic**: Focus on Powell's speech; US data is mixed; in the short - term, it's hard for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 766 in the short - term, and long positions can be considered after stabilization; silver has support at 9100 in the short - term [5] 3.2 Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range [6][7] - **Industrial Logic**: There are recent disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Currently in the off - season, but demand is expected to pick up. Overall, copper supply and demand are in a tight balance [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the Fed officials' hawkish remarks, it is recommended to buy copper on dips. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai copper [78000, 80000] yuan/ton and LME copper [9650, 9950] dollars/ton [6][8] 3.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuates weakly, testing the lower support level [9][10][11] - **Industrial Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The processing fee of zinc concentrate is rising, and smelters' enthusiasm for production is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the off - season, zinc fluctuates weakly. It is recommended to take partial profits on previous short positions. In the long - term, sell on rallies. Pay attention to the range of Shanghai zinc [22000, 22600] and LME zinc [2700, 2800] dollars/ton [10][12] 3.4 Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices stabilize and rebound, and alumina shows a slight stabilization trend [13][14] - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the cost has decreased, the inventory of aluminum ingots has increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term [15] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of aluminum ingot inventory in the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [13][16] 3.5 Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices run weakly, and stainless steel is under pressure [17][18] - **Industrial Logic**: The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, the production of refined nickel has increased, and the inventory has accumulated again. The effect of stainless steel production cuts on inventory reduction is weakening, and there is still an oversupply pressure in the off - season [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term. Pay attention to the change of downstream inventory. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [17][20] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 opens slightly lower, rises and then falls, and closes slightly down [21][22] - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are negative news, the supply is expected to contract unexpectedly. With the arrival of the peak demand season, downstream factories start to stock up. The inventory structure is fragile, and the price is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of [82000 - 85000] [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market turns to expect a September rate cut after digesting short - term bearish sentiment, geopolitical easing, and Powell's potentially hawkish views. Gold and silver are recommended for short - term bottom - fishing and long - term strategic allocation. Copper is recommended for short - term dip - buying and long - term bullish outlook. Zinc is expected to rebound in the short - term and be shorted on rallies in the long - term. Lead is under short - term pressure. Tin and aluminum are under short - term pressure for rebounds. Nickel is under short - term pressure. Industrial silicon rebounds, while polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in high - level oscillations [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Bearish sentiment is partially digested, showing short - term signs of stopping the decline. Attention is paid to Powell's speech on Friday [4]. - **Basic Logic**: There is a divergence of opinions among Fed officials on a September rate cut. The UK's inflation rate in July reached a new high in 18 months, weakening the market's expectation of a rate cut. In the short - term, it is difficult for gold to break through the range, while in the long - term, it may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [5]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may be supported around 766, and long - term orders can be considered after stabilization. Silver is more volatile in the short - term, and attention is paid to the effectiveness of support around 9000. Attention is also paid to the meeting among the US, Russia, and Ukraine [6]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper fluctuates in a narrow range with converging volatility [8]. - **Industrial Logic**: Although there are disturbances in copper mines recently, the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. The production of refined copper may decrease marginally in August - September due to increased smelting maintenance. It is currently the off - season for consumption, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. The overall copper supply and demand are in a tight balance throughout the year [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to try buying copper on dips. In the long - term, copper is highly regarded as an important strategic resource in the China - US game. The focus ranges are [78000, 80000] yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton for London copper [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc stops falling and rebounds, getting support from the lower moving average [10]. - **Industrial Logic**: The supply of zinc concentrate is abundant in 2025. The production of refined zinc is expected to increase in August. On the demand side, the start - up rate of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The domestic zinc social and exchange inventories are accumulating, and the downstream is bearish [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short - term, it is recommended to partially take profit on previous short positions. In the long - term, short zinc on rallies. The focus ranges are [22000, 22600] yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton for London zinc [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices are under pressure, while alumina shows a slight stabilizing trend [14]. - **Industrial Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, there are still uncertainties in overseas macro - trade policies. The cost of the electrolytic aluminum industry has decreased, and the inventory has increased slightly. The start - up rate of downstream processing enterprises has increased. For alumina, the supply is expected to be loose in the short - term, and attention is paid to overseas bauxite changes [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in Shanghai aluminum on dips in the short - term, paying attention to the inventory changes of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices are weak, and stainless steel is under pressure and declining [18]. - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro - environment is still uncertain. The price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and the production of refined nickel has increased with accumulated inventory. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and it still faces over - supply pressure during the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on short positions in nickel and stainless steel on dips in the short - term, paying attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [20]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 gaps down and hits the daily limit down [22]. - **Industrial Logic**: Negative news impacts the market, but the corresponding production cannot make up for the gap. The fundamentals have not improved significantly, but with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, the inventory structure may amplify price elasticity. The main contract is expected to rise further after the strengthening of the de - stocking expectation [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy on dips in the range of [80000 - 85000] [24].

中辉有色观点 | | | 11/2 | 1200 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | 20.00 | | 1965 | C 22.0 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 俄乌、中东等地缘寻求停战，避险情绪下降，短期盘面缺乏向上动力。中长期，主 | | ★ | 止跌试多 | 要国家货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，地缘格局重塑，黄金有资产配置需求。长 | | | | 期黄金继续战略配置。 | | 白银 | | 中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作用明显，工业需求坚挺， | | | 反弹做多 | 供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。短期白银基本面变化不大，品种弹性较大， | | ★ | | 谨防黄金波动影响，短期关注 9150 附近表现，长期做多。 | | | | 全球央行年会在即，市场预测鲍威尔或发声偏鹰，打压美联储降息预期，美元反弹 | | 铜 | 回调试多 | 铜价承压，建议回调轻仓试多。中长期，铜作为中美博弈的重要战略资源，铜精矿 | | ★ | | 紧张和绿色铜需求爆发，对铜长期看 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - Long - term, gold may be in a long - bull market due to global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring. Silver has an upward trend with strong industrial demand and limited supply growth. Copper is expected to be in a tight supply - demand balance, with long - term positive prospects. Zinc has a supply - increase and demand - decrease situation in the medium - long term. Aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel prices are under pressure, while industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are bullish, and lithium carbonate is also recommended for long positions [1][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Last week, gold and silver prices declined due to factors such as the reconstruction of the global geopolitical pattern and the repeated expectations of US interest rate cuts [2]. - **Basic Logic**: US data is mixed, and there was a meeting between US and Russian leaders. In the long run, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, declining dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold may find support around 770, and long - term positions can be considered after stabilization. The trading range for silver is expected to be between 9150 - 9400, and long - term long positions are recommended [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark, showing a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas copper prices [6]. - **Industry Logic**: Recently, there have been disruptions in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has marginally improved. During the consumption off - season, demand is weak, but it is expected to pick up with the arrival of the peak season. Overseas copper inventories are slightly increasing, while domestic social inventories are tight [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: As the off - season and peak - season switch and the key interest - rate cut month of September approaches, it is recommended to try long positions on dips. Enterprises can wait for high - price opportunities to sell and hedge [7]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc opened lower and moved lower overnight, under pressure and falling back [9]. - **Industry Logic**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, the start - up of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline in August, and domestic zinc inventories are accumulating [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold short positions and pay attention to the support at the 22,000 - yuan mark. In the medium - long term, wait for high - price opportunities to short [10]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were slightly under pressure, and alumina was in a downward trend [12]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, the macro situation has slightly improved, with costs decreasing and inventories increasing. For alumina, the arrival volume may be affected by the rainy season in Guinea, and the supply is expected to be loose in the short term [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the inventory changes during the off - season [14]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices faced pressure during the rebound, and stainless steel was also under pressure [16]. - **Industry Logic**: Overseas nickel ore prices are weak, and domestic refined nickel production is increasing with inventory accumulation. The effect of stainless steel production cuts is weakening, and there is still an over - supply pressure during the off - season [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to downstream inventory changes [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2511 fluctuated slightly and rose more than 2% at the end of the session [20]. - **Industry Logic**: Although the overall inventory and production have slightly declined, the absolute quantity is still high. With the approaching of the peak demand season, downstream factories are stocking up, and the inventory structure is expected to drive price increases [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the range of 85,000 - 88,000 yuan [22].

中辉有色观点 | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美俄乌会面在即，美国 9 月份降息概率几成定局，短期盘面止跌后盘整。中长期 G2 | | | 止跌做多 | 大国货币政策宽松，央行继续买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性低，资产配置需要。 | | ★ | | 长期黄金继续战略配置。谨防短期特朗普普京会面对盘面冲击【770-788】 | | 白银 | | 白银逻辑不变，流动性影响白银涨幅更多，中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松 | | ★★ | 反弹做多 | 财政刺激等支撑作用明显，工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。 | | | | 短期白银品种弹性较大，短期试多长期做多。【9150-9400】 | | | | 宏观利好兑现后，市场情绪降温，商品大面积飘绿，需求淡季海外铜库存累库，国 | | 铜 | 多单持有 | 内铜社会库存相对偏紧，铜高位盘整，建议前期多单继续持有，部分可止盈兑现， | | ★★ | | | | | | 中长期依旧看好铜，沪铜关注区间【78000，80000】 | | 锌 | | 伦锌仓单紧张，锌外强内弱，短期需 ...

中辉有色观点 | | 11 | 1 1 | | --- | --- | --- | | T | | 8 | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美俄即将会面，中美关税或被再延缓 90 天，特朗普不对黄金加征关税，短期盘面波 | | | 回调做多 | 动剧烈。中长期多国货币政策宽松预期，央行买黄金，黄金与其他资产相关性较低， | | ★★ | | 长期黄金继续战略配置。谨防短期特朗普普京会面对盘面冲击【770-788】 | | 白银 | | 白银跟随黄金大幅波动，中长期美国降息预期和中美欧等国宽松财政刺激等支撑作 | | | 止跌做多 | 用明显，工业需求坚挺，供给端增量有限，白银向上趋势不变。短期白银品种弹性 | | ★★ | | | | | | 较大，短期等止跌试多长期做多。【9100-9300】 | | 铜 | | 美国通胀数据即将公布，市场预期受关税影响通胀回升，美元反弹铜价承压。LME | | | 回调试多 | 铜累库幅度放缓，国内铜社会库存偏紧，精废价差收敛刺激精铜消费，建议回调逢 | | ★★ | | 低试多，中长期依旧看好 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news indicates that the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index has experienced a slight decline of 0.32%, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, highlighting both gainers and losers in the market [1] - The top-performing stocks include Jerry Holdings, which hit the daily limit up, Yunda Holdings with a rise of 9.23%, and Guai Bao Pet with an increase of 5.21% [1] - Conversely, Huahai Pharmaceutical led the decline, followed by Kanghong Pharmaceutical and Huagong Technology [1] Group 2 - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index is composed of 100 listed companies selected for their high profitability, sustainable earnings, and strong cash flow, providing diverse investment options for investors [2] - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index include Dongwu Securities, Kaiying Network, and Huagong Technology, collectively accounting for 20.47% of the index [2] - The latest price-to-book ratio (PB) of the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index is 1.96, indicating that the valuation is at a historical low, being below 80.19% of the time over the past three years, suggesting attractive valuation [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the tin industry as "Overweight" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The central thesis of the report suggests that the price of tin is expected to rise, driven by tightening supply and improving demand conditions, particularly in the context of artificial intelligence and consumer electronics recovery [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Tin: A Competitive Advantage for China, Price Center Likely to Rise - Tin has a low abundance in the earth's crust, with significant resource advantages in China [7]. - Price analysis indicates that supply constraints and macroeconomic factors are expected to boost tin prices [18][34]. 2. Continuous Supply Disruptions, Incremental Growth May Fall Short of Expectations - Supply disruptions are ongoing, particularly in Myanmar, where production recovery is slow [46]. - The report anticipates that global tin production in 2025 will be around 300,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2% [2]. 3. Demand Growth Driven by AI Trends - The demand for tin solder is expected to increase significantly due to the high growth in artificial intelligence applications and the recovery of consumer electronics [3][31]. - The report forecasts a global refined tin supply gap of 8,300 tons in 2025, highlighting a pronounced supply-demand imbalance [2]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Tin Industry Co., Ltd., and Xingye Silver Tin, which are positioned well due to their resource advantages and global strategies [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is currently experiencing volatile fluctuations, characterized by a lack of sustained trends, with significant resistance at the $3250 level and support at $3207, indicating a broader range of consolidation [1][2][3]. Market Analysis - Recent movements in gold prices have shown a jump to test the $3250 resistance but failed to break through, leading to intense market contention as traders await a decisive breakout [1][2]. - The central bank's recent interest rate cut to below 1% signals a trend towards global monetary easing, which is expected to impact inflation and consumer prices, potentially driving interest in gold [1][2]. - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains cautious, with indications that a rate cut may be considered in the latter half of the year, influenced by external pressures including comments from former President Trump [2]. Technical Indicators - The gold price has recently broken below the $3207 support level, indicating a bearish trend, with the next key support identified between $3175 and $3170 [5]. - The market is currently in a choppy trading environment, where quick price movements may mislead traders into thinking a trend is forming, emphasizing the importance of stop-loss strategies [3][5]. - A confirmation of a trend reversal will only occur if the price breaks above the previous high and does not create new lows, highlighting the need for cautious trading strategies in the current environment [5].