他们指出，去年12月美联储的降息、对供应端收紧的持续担忧，以及特朗普关税言论的前景，共同推高了市场对该金属的乐观情绪。 SMM联合制作联系人 惠誉国际旗下的BMI研究机构分析师表示，供应收紧和稳健需求仍将支撑铜价。 该机构预测，今年铜均价为每吨11,000美元，明年为每吨12,500美元。 不过分析师警告称，美国关税压力的重现可能导致市场波动加剧。 美国商务部长定于6月30日前提供国内铜市场的最新报告，该报告将决定是否在2027年对精炼铜征收15%的全球通用关税，并在2028年将税率提高至30%。 （文华综合） 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局， 上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图： https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn ...

12月17日，铜业股集体上涨，其中，五矿资源、江西铜业股份涨近2%，中国大冶有色金属涨超1%，中 国黄金国际、中国有色矿业跟涨。 | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 涨跌幅 v | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01208 | 五矿资源 | 8.070 1.77% | | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | 34.480 | 1.77% | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金 | 0.088 | 1.15% | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | 155.700 | 0.84% | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | 14.590 | 0.14% | 摩根士丹利则预计2025年铜供应将出现26万吨的缺口，2026年缺口将进一步扩大至60万吨，几乎没有进 一步可以承受供应中断的空间。 美股频道更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>>责任编辑：栎树 消息上，伦铜期货近期持续创新高，目前在高位徘徊。高盛上调了其对2026年铜价的预测，将2026年铜 的平均价格预测从每吨10650美元上调至11400美元，理由是美国征收铜进口关税的风险仍然高企，这将 持续支撑铜价。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international copper prices have reached historical highs due to increasing concerns over global supply shortages, although a recent pullback was observed on December 9 [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core factor driving the rise in copper prices is the sustained tightness in supply, with several mining companies lowering their mid-term production forecasts and a significant number of cancellation requests for LME warehouse receipts [3]. - Demand for copper is steadily increasing in sectors such as electric vehicles, power grid construction, and AI data centers, contributing to a robust demand outlook [3]. Market Performance - Following a surge in copper prices since November 28, related A-share concept stocks have shown strong performance, with companies like Shengton Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing cumulative increases of 17.36% and 13.96%, respectively [2]. - On December 9, copper futures on the LME fell over 1%, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping 1.46%, reflecting a broader market reaction [2]. Long-term Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for copper prices, with expectations of new highs by 2026 driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. interest rate cycle and geopolitical stability [4]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) anticipates a supply gap of 150,000 tons by 2026 due to limited new copper mining capacity, further supporting price increases [4]. Structural Supply Concerns - While short-term supply is expected to meet demand, there are concerns about potential structural shortages in the long term, driven by economic recovery and growth in emerging industries [5]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with indications of profit-taking among investors, suggesting a need for careful position management [5].

事件： 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 工费已降至0美元/吨。即冶炼企业无加工费收入，只能依赖于副产品硫酸、小金属和超额回收率盈利。若 后续硫酸价格下行，冶炼企业或面临亏损，中国及海外电解铜均面临减产问题。 据SMM，2025年11月28日，鉴于铜精矿加工费及计价条款已严重偏离市场合理水平，为推进全球铜产业 健康高质量发展、同时落实好国家"反内卷"相关要求，中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）成员企业达成 以下共识并严格遵守：（1）2026年降低矿铜产能负荷10%以上；（2）维护Benchmark体系，加强与矿山 直接合作，抵制贸易商不合理计价模式；（3）强化成员参与现货投标、采购的监督；（4）建立黑名单制 度，抵制扰乱市场的供应商和检测机构。 产能：CSPT ...

大宗商品巨头摩科瑞能源集团 (Mercuria Energy Group,Ltd) 知名金属业务主管 Kostas Bintas 近日重申了 其对铜价的看涨预期。他警告称，当前涌向美国的铜发货潮，可能导致世界其他地区的库存枯竭。 近几周，受未来关税政策不确定性的推动，交易商纷纷加大对美铜出口量，再次瞄准纽约商品交易所 (COMEX) 的高额铜溢价套利机会。 这些最新交易延续了今年铜市的动荡格局：年初，美国总统特朗普首次威胁加征关税后，美国铜价大幅 飙升，引发全球铜资源向美集中流动。尽管特朗普最终豁免了精炼铜的关税，但表示将在 2026 年下半 年重新评估这一决定。此后，一系列矿山生产中断导致供应收紧，推动全球铜价攀升至历史新高。 Bintas 表示，随着利润丰厚的美国套利交易重启，其他地区将面临铜供应短缺，铜价很快将进一步上 涨。 "这是一场超级行情，" 他在上海一场重要行业会议闭幕前夕接受采访时表示，"如果全球持续保持当前 运输态势，除美国外的其他地区将面临电解铜供应枯竭。" 据了解，Bintas 在大宗商品行业声名显赫 —— 他曾在托克集团 (Trafigura Group) 任职期间，将该公司 的铜交易 ...

大宗商品巨头摩科瑞能源集团(Mercuria Energy Group,Ltd)知名金属业务主管Kostas Bintas近日重申了其 对铜价的看涨预期。他警告称，当前涌向美国的铜发货潮，可能导致世界其他地区的库存枯竭。 近几周，受未来关税政策不确定性的推动，交易商纷纷加大对美铜出口量，再次瞄准纽约商品交易所 (COMEX)的高额铜溢价套利机会。 这些最新交易延续了今年铜市的动荡格局：年初，美国总统特朗普首次威胁加征关税后，美国铜价大幅 飙升，引发全球铜资源向美集中流动。尽管特朗普最终豁免了精炼铜的关税，但表示将在2026年下半年 重新评估这一决定。此后，一系列矿山生产中断导致供应收紧，推动全球铜价攀升至历史新高。 Bintas表示，随着利润丰厚的美国套利交易重启，其他地区将面临铜供应短缺，铜价很快将进一步上 涨。 "这是一场超级行情，"他在上海一场重要行业会议闭幕前夕接受采访时表示，"如果全球持续保持当前 运输态势，除美国外的其他地区将面临电解铜供应枯竭。" 据了解，Bintas在大宗商品行业声名显赫——他曾在托克集团(Trafigura Group)任职期间，将该公司的铜 交易业务打造成全球规模最大，也因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper industry stocks experienced a significant increase, driven by concerns over negative processing fees affecting the global copper smelting industry and potential regulatory changes in China [1][1]. Industry Summary - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's vice president, Chen Xuesen, highlighted that negative processing fees are severely harming the interests of the global copper smelting industry, including China. This unusual situation challenges the long-standing pricing benchmarks in the global copper industry [1][1]. - The association's public statement marks the first acknowledgment of the processing fee market's irregularities by a Chinese industry authority [1]. Company Summary - Morgan Stanley reported that the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly limit new copper smelting capacity and shut down approximately 2 million tons of illegal copper smelting capacity. If implemented, this policy is expected to benefit copper prices and major copper producers [1][1]. - Morgan Stanley anticipates that the stock prices of Jiangxi Copper and Luoyang Molybdenum will rise within the next 15 days, with probabilities of 70% to 80%. The target prices are set at HKD 37.3 and HKD 18.6, respectively, both rated as "overweight" [1][1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is expected to tighten again next year, leading to new highs in copper concentrate and refined copper prices, with a projected shortfall of approximately 500,000 tons in the global copper concentrate market [1] - The limited supply growth and increasing demand from new smelters outside of China are the main reasons for the anticipated shortfall, which is consistent with this year's situation [1] - The refined copper market is currently experiencing an oversupply of 350,000 to 400,000 tons, a significant revision from the previous estimate of a 300,000-ton shortfall made in May [1] Group 2 - Mercuria, along with other energy traders like BGN and Gunvor, is expanding into metal trading, betting on structural changes in the global energy system to be profitable [2] - Over the past 12 months, Mercuria has invested nearly $2 billion, trading approximately 1 million tons of copper and 1.5 million tons of copper concentrate [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles suggests that despite the current stable copper prices, there is an expectation of a significant price increase, potentially reaching $12,000 per ton by mid-2026, driven by structural changes in the market [1][3][6] - Citigroup's analysis indicates that global copper consumption grew only by approximately 1% year-on-year in September, with demand from China stagnating, which has impacted overall global data [2][4] - The current market is viewed as being in a "buffer period," where the lack of immediate demand recovery may obscure potential structural changes in the coming years [1][3] Group 2 - From 2026 onwards, a shift in the copper market environment is anticipated, with increased demand from sectors such as electric vehicles, construction, and energy transition projects, supported by looser fiscal and monetary policies [3][4] - Concerns about supply bottlenecks are highlighted, as the construction of new copper mines is complex and capital-intensive, which may lead to production growth slowing down [3][4] - Despite short-term data showing weak consumption, there are signals of market participants positioning for a demand recovery, indicating a potential disconnect between current physical demand and future price movements [4][5] Group 3 - Copper is recognized as a critical indicator of global economic trends, reflecting both short-term economic fluctuations and long-term structural changes [5][6] - The forecasted price of $12,000 per ton is contingent on various factors, including global economic performance, mining supply conditions, and political and monetary policy frameworks [6] - The ongoing discussions about copper's importance in industrial and energy transitions are expected to remain a focal point in the market in the coming years [6]

Core Viewpoint - The optimistic mid-term outlook for copper prices supports the continued profitability momentum of Zijin Mining, which may lead to a further revaluation of the stock [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Zijin Mining has downgraded its 2025 group copper production forecast due to a flooding incident at one of its mines [1] - Despite the production downgrade, the company indicates that frequent severe disruptions in global mining production may keep supply tight and support long-term prices [1] - Strong fundamentals in gold and copper have reaffirmed Zijin Mining's robust nine-month performance, confirming its profit visibility [1] Group 2: Analyst Recommendations - Daiwa Capital Markets has raised the target price for Zijin Mining's H-shares from HKD 29.70 to HKD 37.80 while maintaining a buy rating [1]