Core Insights - The report presents two industry rotation models: one based on similar expected return differentials and another based on changes in analyst expectations, both aimed at identifying investment opportunities in various sectors [11][22]. Group 1: Similar Expected Return Differential Model - The latest configuration suggests focusing on sectors such as coal, communication, basic chemicals, automotive, real estate, and machinery [21]. - In September 2025, the model achieved a monthly return of +4.56%, outperforming the equal-weighted industry index by +3.66% [21]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 shows that the model has a mean Information Coefficient (IC) of 0.09, indicating strong selection ability [14][15]. Group 2: Analyst Expectation Change Model - The latest configuration highlights sectors including non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, agriculture, communication, steel, and computers [33]. - In September 2025, the model recorded a monthly return of +1.03%, with an excess return of +0.13% over the equal-weighted industry index [33]. - The historical backtest from December 2016 to September 2025 indicates a mean IC of 0.06, demonstrating significant industry selection capability [23][24]. Group 3: ETF Portfolio Construction - The recommended ETF portfolio for October 2025 includes sectors such as non-bank financials, non-ferrous metals, communication, basic chemicals, and automotive [35]. - Specific ETFs listed include the Huabao CSI All-Share Securities Company ETF and the Southern CSI Non-Ferrous Metals ETF, among others, with significant fund shares [35].

有色金属概念股早盘走强，山东黄金涨停，洛阳钼业、中金黄金、赣锋锂业涨超9%。 有券商表示，2025年，有色金属板块市场波动风险仍高，需求端、供应端扰动等因素均带来不确定性。然而，新兴需求在铜、铝下游结构中的 占比已从量变走向质变，有望支撑有色金属长期价格中枢向上抬升。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 受盘面影响，矿业、有色相关ETF涨约7%。 | 代码 | 类型 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 561330 | 主 | 矿业ETF | 1.769 | 0.125 | 7.60% | | 159690 | 主 | 矿业ETF | 1.805 | 0.127 | 7.57% | | 159562 | 主 | 黄金股ETF | 2.341 | 0.162 | 7.43% | | 560860 | 主 | 工业有色ETF | 1.433 | 0.096 | 7.18% | | 516650 | 主 | 有色金属ETF基金 | 1.739 | 0.115 | 7.08% | | 159871 | 主 | 有色金属ETF | 1 ...

Market Overview - Investors face a dilemma of holding stocks or cash during the upcoming National Day holiday, as A-shares will be closed while overseas markets remain open [1] - Historical data indicates a "post-holiday effect" in the A-share market, with a higher probability of a "post-holiday opening red" [1][2] - Over the past decade, the Shanghai Composite Index has generally performed better after holidays compared to before, with post-holiday gains often being more sustained during significant market rallies [1] A-share Performance Data - The table shows the performance of the Shanghai Composite Index before and after the National Day holiday from 2015 to 2024, highlighting the percentage changes [2] - The probability of the index rising post-holiday is 70% for the first trading day and 60% for the first five trading days [2] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market exhibits a "mid-holiday effect," with a tendency to rise during the National Day holiday, although the first trading day after the holiday may be weaker [5] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a higher probability of rising post-holiday, especially when the market is in an upward trend [5][6] Sector Performance Expectations - In the A-share market, sectors such as computer, beauty care, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, and automotive are expected to show strong performance in the five trading days following the holiday [8] - For the Hong Kong market, all sectors except comprehensive finance have an upward probability of over 60%, with consumer, high-beta, and growth sectors performing relatively well during the holiday [8][9] Investment Strategies - The report suggests focusing on "hard technology" sectors, including technology, chips, computing power, robotics, and artificial intelligence, as they are expected to lead market trends [11][13] - The "anti-involution" theme is highlighted, particularly in the battery and non-ferrous metals sectors, which are anticipated to benefit from policy catalysts and demand [13] - The report also emphasizes the potential of innovative pharmaceuticals, particularly in the Hong Kong market, due to favorable liquidity conditions and low valuations [14] Broader Market Trends - The report indicates that broad-based ETFs are likely to capture market trends effectively, with financial sectors such as brokerage firms expected to lead the charge [11] - The consumer sector is also highlighted as a key area of interest, especially during the holiday season, with significant inflows into consumer-focused ETFs [14]

截至9:43，成分股仅做展示使用，不构成投资建议 美国矿业巨头矿业巨头Freeport-McMoRan宣布其印尼Grasberg铜矿遭遇不可抗力，导致这座全球第二大铜矿停产。Freeport发布的初步评估显示，公司已下 调第三季度铜和黄金销售指引，分别较2025年7月的预期降低4%和6%。同时，公司预计2026年的铜和黄金产量可能较此前的估算骤降约35%。 高盛分析师将此事件定性为"黑天鹅"，预计未来12-15个月内造成50万吨的铜供应损失，并断言"铜价必须因此上涨"。受此影响，隔夜LME铜涨超3%！ 招商证券火线点评，印尼自由港生产事故对产量造成具体影响有待观察，但可以肯定的是，供应紧张有增无减。（来源于招商证券20250921《如期降息，从 宽松交易转复苏交易》） 方正证券表示，全球第二大铜矿Grasberg铜矿（占全球供给3%）未复产，另外，卡库拉矿山第二阶段大部分排水工作预计将于2025年11月底完成，艾芬豪矿 业推迟公布卡莫阿-卡库拉铜矿2026-2027年产量指引，行业供给扰动增加对价格形成向上支撑。（来源于方正证券20250921《有色金属行业周报：美联储降 息周期开启，金铜长牛可期》） 数据显 ...

格隆汇9月19日｜能源金属板块持续走强，其中，赣锋锂业涨停，天齐锂业涨超6%，腾远钴业、博迁新 材、寒锐钴业、盛新锂能跟涨。 相关ETF方面，有色50ETF(159652)涨1.51%，成交额3586.03万元，稀 有金属ETF(159608)涨2.02%，成交额2416.0万元。 ...

Group 1 - The ETF market showed mixed performance on the 18th, with the China Securities A50 ETF (512250) leading gains at 10.04% [2] - The Chip Equipment ETF (560780) increased by 5.55%, while the Semiconductor Materials ETF (562590) rose by 4.56% [2] - The Industrial Nonferrous ETF (560860) was the biggest loser, declining by 4.14%, followed by the Nonferrous 50 ETF (159652) which fell by 3.89%, and the Fintech ETF Huaxia (516100) also dropped by 3.89% [2]

9月1日，A股风格再度轮动至"反内卷"主题，有色板块直线冲高，领衔一众"反内卷"板块，有色50ETF(159652)放量涨超2%，盘中价创上市以来新高！截至 10:58，有色50ETF(159652)成交额达1.02亿元，已超上一交易日全天成交额，市场交投高度活跃！ 机构观点上，招商证券认为，美联储强降息预期下，预计美元持续偏弱，利多全球定价的贵金属和工业金属。有色资源股低估值、供需基本面有长期支撑、 宏观宽松敏感度高，看好有色资源股普涨的投资机会。重点关注铜金稀土钨锑钴铝等品种。（来源：招商证券《宽松周期，全面看好有色资源股》） 中信建投证券指出，美联储青睐的通胀指标核心PCE温和上涨，稳定了市场对美联储在9月议息会议降息的预期，特朗普解雇美联储理事库克的事件持续发 酵，严重威胁着美联储独立性，美元走弱，激发黄金货币属性与铜的金融属性，商品价格突破前高在即，打开权益标的上行空间。有色板块呈现各个子版块 全面开花的局面，价格驱动EPS与情绪改善及战略定位提升PE的双击进行时，建议积极参与。 国盛证券指出，特朗普罢免美联储理事库克事件持续发酵，美元信用受损叠加美国核心PCE数据连续回升，市场对美联储降息预期持续 ...

Group 1 - The non-ferrous metal sector continues to rise, with Jinmoly Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit, and companies such as Xiamen Tungsten, Yunnan Zinc Industry, Xingye Silver Tin, Jintian Titanium Industry, and Zhangyuan Tungsten also experiencing gains [1] - Related ETFs show positive performance, with the Rare Metals ETF (159608) increasing by 0.56% and a trading volume of 30.4946 million yuan, while the Non-Ferrous 50 ETF (159652) rose by 0.71% with a trading volume of 39.9473 million yuan [1]

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a style switch, with the previously leading technology sector undergoing a correction, while cyclical and anti-involution themes are rising [1] - The Color Metal 50 ETF (159652) increased by 2.86%, with a significant surge in trading volume, exceeding 46 million yuan within the first hour of trading [1][2] - The net inflow of funds into the Color Metal 50 ETF reached 605.95 million yuan, with a total of 1.02 billion yuan net inflow over the past five trading days [3] Group 2 - The recent Jackson Hole meeting has opened a window for potential interest rate cuts in September, leading to a more optimistic outlook for manufacturing sector recovery [3] - The introduction of new regulations for rare earth mining and processing is expected to enhance industry concentration and strengthen the government's control over supply and pricing [4] - The Color Metal 50 ETF is highlighted for its significant exposure to copper, accounting for 31% of its index, making it a leading choice for investors looking at precious metals and industrial metals [5][9] Group 3 - Key components of the Color Metal 50 ETF include leading companies in various sectors, such as Zijin Mining (15.8% weight) and Northern Rare Earth (5.0% weight) [6][7] - The overall investment landscape for non-ferrous metals is seen as favorable due to multiple factors, including supply-side constraints and new demand dynamics [4]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rally, driven by improved market confidence, active capital flow, heightened investor risk appetite, and a booming industrial sector, particularly in technology and innovation [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Drivers - Policy improvements have bolstered capital market confidence and catalyzed economic recovery, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the annual target [1]. - The capital market is seeing sustained activity, with margin trading balances reaching a near 10-year high and daily trading volumes exceeding 2 trillion yuan, attracting foreign investment due to lower valuations of Chinese assets amid a U.S. interest rate cut cycle [1]. - Investor risk appetite has significantly increased due to policy catalysts and expectations of economic recovery [3]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - ETFs are highlighted as effective tools for navigating the current market, addressing stock selection challenges and lowering investment thresholds, with many ETFs priced around 1 yuan per unit, making them accessible [5][6]. - The securities sector is poised for growth, supported by active trading, new business ventures by Chinese brokerages, and strong financial policies, making securities ETFs a focal point for investment [7]. - The semiconductor sector shows robust recovery, with a projected net profit growth of 104% for 2025, driven by AI advancements and domestic substitution trends [7]. - The cloud computing sector is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for computing power, with ETFs capturing both domestic and Hong Kong market opportunities [7]. - The robotics sector is experiencing rapid development, with various products and themes emerging, presenting investment opportunities in robotics ETFs [7]. - Traditional energy and new energy sectors are also highlighted, with ETFs focusing on industrial metals and renewable energy benefiting from favorable policies and market demand [7][8]. Group 3: Consumer and Technology Focus - The consumer sector is gaining traction, with significant inflows into consumer ETFs, reflecting a strong emphasis on domestic consumption [8]. - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors are expected to thrive under supportive policies and market conditions, with ETFs focusing on technology innovation and growth [9].