铜材企业产能开工率
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沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250808
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 05:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Copper Futures - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,460, up 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,710 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots; the open interest was 157,601 lots, a decrease of 973 lots; the inventory was 20,145 tons, a decrease of 201 tons [2]. - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,500, up 150 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 40, a decrease of 30; the spot premium of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was - 45, an increase of 10; the spot premium of North China electrolytic copper was - 120, unchanged; the spot premium of East China electrolytic copper was - 15, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,670.5, down 3.5 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,000 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 65.63, down 3.01; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 140, an increase of 4.79; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1133, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.414, up 0.03 from the previous day; the total inventory was 263,296 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons [2]. 3.2 Copper Foil Industry - Benefiting from good terminal orders, the operating rate of the copper foil industry is on the rise. In July 2025, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. SMM expects that the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry in August 2025 will continue to rise to 78.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.51 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Industry News - On August 5, the environmental assessment approval of the annual production project of 40,000 tons of copper strip blanks and tool steel of Anhui Zhongzui Copper Industry Co., Ltd. was publicly announced, with a 7 - day announcement period [2]. - Indonesia's PT Cresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure, with a maintenance period of 2 - 4 weeks. The annual output of this smelter is about 300,000 tons, and the estimated impact on production is about 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Copper Products Industry - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) compared with last week, and an increase in the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3]. - The order volume (operating rate of production capacity) of China's copper enameled wires has increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of enameled wire enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper strip production capacity has increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper tube production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have remained the same (increased) compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's brass rod production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - Due to the intertwined factors of the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decrease month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the operating rates of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [3].
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250808
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 03:26
| 华东电力与漆包线用精铜杆日度加工费较上周升高,使中国精铜杯(再生铜杆)产能开工率较上周升高(升高),精钢杯企业原料(成品)库存量 | | | --- | --- | | 较上周增加〈增加〉,再生铜桥企业原料〈成品〉库存量较上周城少〈增加〉,中国铜电线电缆产能升工率较上周下降,中国铜电线电缆企业原料 | | | (成品)库存量较上周减少〈增加〉;中国铜液包线接单量〈产能开工卒〉较上周增加(升高〉,中国漆包线企业原料(成品)库存天数较上周减 | | | 少〈減少〉;中国铜板带产能汗工率《生产量》较上周升高〈增加〉,中国铜板带企业境科〈成品〕库存天数较上周减少〈减少〉;中国铜管产能 | | | 开工率较上周下降,中国铜管企业原料(成品)库存天数较上周持平(增加);中国黄铜棒产能开工率较上周下降,中国黄铜棒企业历料(成品) | | | 库存天数较上周减少〈減少〉;中美互征关税缓和和传统消费淡季交织,或使国内8月铜材企业产能开工率〈生产量、进口量,出口量〉环比下降 | | | 投资策略 | 〈増加、减少、减少〉,具体而言:电解铜制杯、铜板带(新能源汽车及电力和高端电子需求向好,但家电与光伏需求疲软)、铜箔〈动力与储 ...