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沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250808
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 05:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Copper Futures - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,460, up 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,710 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots; the open interest was 157,601 lots, a decrease of 973 lots; the inventory was 20,145 tons, a decrease of 201 tons [2]. - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,500, up 150 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 40, a decrease of 30; the spot premium of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was - 45, an increase of 10; the spot premium of North China electrolytic copper was - 120, unchanged; the spot premium of East China electrolytic copper was - 15, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,670.5, down 3.5 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,000 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 65.63, down 3.01; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 140, an increase of 4.79; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1133, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.414, up 0.03 from the previous day; the total inventory was 263,296 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons [2]. 3.2 Copper Foil Industry - Benefiting from good terminal orders, the operating rate of the copper foil industry is on the rise. In July 2025, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. SMM expects that the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry in August 2025 will continue to rise to 78.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.51 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Industry News - On August 5, the environmental assessment approval of the annual production project of 40,000 tons of copper strip blanks and tool steel of Anhui Zhongzui Copper Industry Co., Ltd. was publicly announced, with a 7 - day announcement period [2]. - Indonesia's PT Cresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure, with a maintenance period of 2 - 4 weeks. The annual output of this smelter is about 300,000 tons, and the estimated impact on production is about 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Copper Products Industry - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) compared with last week, and an increase in the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3]. - The order volume (operating rate of production capacity) of China's copper enameled wires has increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of enameled wire enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper strip production capacity has increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper tube production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have remained the same (increased) compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's brass rod production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - Due to the intertwined factors of the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decrease month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the operating rates of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [3].
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250807
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional domestic consumption off - season suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad has been oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous short positions when the price is low, and pay attention to support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,280, a decrease of 300 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 26,388 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots. The open interest was 158,574 lots, a decrease of 1,292 lots. The inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,350, a decrease of 265. The Shanghai copper basis was 70, an increase of 35 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was affected, with the registered and unregistered warehouse receipt total inventory at 9,674, an increase of 39.5. The LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 62.62, an increase of 4.7 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.413, a decrease of 0.04. The total inventory weight was 263,104, an increase of 1,924 [2]. Industry News - **Copper Foil Industry**: In July 2025, the overall copper foil industry's开工率 was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. It is expected to reach 78.24% in August [2]. - **Project News**: On August 6, Anhui Zhongzui Copper Industry Co., Ltd.'s annual 40,000 - ton copper strip billet and tool steel production and processing project entered the environmental assessment approval publicity period [2]. - **Smelter Maintenance**: Indonesia's PT Cresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure for 22 - 4 weeks, affecting an estimated output of about 20,000 tons [2]. - **Mine Incidents and Production Adjustments**: Multiple mines had incidents or production adjustments, such as Codelco's BI Teniente copper mine suspending mining due to a collapse, and some mines reducing their production expectations [2][3]. Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Impact**: Domestic copper concentrate production (import) in August may increase month - on - month. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative but has risen compared to last week, and the port copper concentrate out - port, in - port, and inventory in the world (China) has changed compared to last week [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Investors are advised to take profits on previous short positions when the price is low and pay attention to support and resistance levels of different copper markets [3].
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250807
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:18
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased expectations of a Fed rate cut, but the traditional domestic consumption off - season has suppressed downstream demand. The total domestic and foreign electrolytic copper inventories are oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors take profits on their previous short positions when the price drops. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Copper Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On August 6, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,280, a decrease of 300 from the previous day; the trading volume was 26,388 lots, an increase of 13,597 lots; the open interest was 158,574 lots, a decrease of 1,292 lots; the inventory was 20,346 tons, an increase of 1,579 tons [2] - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spot Premium/Discount**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,350, a decrease of 265 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 70, an increase of 35; the spot premium/discount of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was - 55, unchanged; the spot premium/discount of North China electrolytic copper was - 120, unchanged; the spot premium/discount of East China electrolytic copper was - 15, a decrease of 15; the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai copper was - 10, unchanged; the spread between the first - continuous and the second - continuous contract was - 10, a decrease of 10; the spread between the second - continuous and the third - continuous contract was 10, a decrease of 10 [2] - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on August 6, 2025, was 9,674; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 9,674, an increase of 39.5 from the previous day; the LME copper futures 0 - 3 - month contract spread was - 62.62, an increase of 4.7; the LME copper futures 3 - 15 - month contract spread was - 144.79, a decrease of 2.18; the Shanghai - London copper price ratio was 8.0918, a decrease of 0.06 [2] - **COMEX Copper**: The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures on August 6, 2025, was 4.413, a decrease of 0.04 from the previous day; the total inventory was 263,104, an increase of 1,924 [2] 3.2 Industry News - **Copper Foil Industry**: Benefiting from good terminal orders, the copper foil industry's operating rate is on the rise. In July 2025, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. SMM predicts that the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry in August 2025 will continue to rise to 78.24% [2] - **Project News**: On August 6, the environmental assessment approval of Anhui Zhongzui Copper Co., Ltd.'s annual production project of 40,000 tons of copper strip blanks and tool steel was publicly announced. The project is expected to have an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons after completion. The PT Cresik smelter in Indonesia has entered maintenance due to a fault in the oxygen supply equipment, with an estimated impact on production of about 20,000 tons [2] 3.3 Mine - related News - **Production Adjustments and Accidents**: Multiple mines have production adjustments and accidents. For example, Codelco's El Teniente copper mine in Chile suspended mining due to a collapse on July 31; Teck Resources lowered the expected production of the Quebrada Blanca copper mine in 2025; several mines had accidents such as collapses, gas poisoning, and mechanical failures, which affected production [3] - **New Projects and Expansions**: Some mines have new projects or expansions. For example, Tongling Nonferrous' Mirado copper mine in Ecuador may have a second - phase 850,000 - ton production capacity put into operation in the second half of 2025; the second - phase expansion project of Julong copper mine may be put into operation by the end of 2025 [3] 3.4 Investment and Trading Strategies - **Investment Strategy**: The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume in August may increase month - on - month. The Chinese copper concentrate import index is negative but has risen compared with last week. The outbound (inbound, inventory) volume of copper concentrate at ports in the world (China) has decreased (increased, decreased) compared with last week [3] - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended that investors take profits on their previous short positions when the price drops. Attention should be paid to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper (74,000 - 76,000 and 80,000 - 81,000), London copper (9,300 - 9,500 and 10,000 - 10,200), and US copper (4.0 - 4.2 and 4.6 - 5.0) [3]