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沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量环比减少-20250808
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 05:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening US job market has increased market expectations of a Fed rate cut. However, due to the traditional consumption off - season in China suppressing downstream demand, the total inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad is oscillating upwards, which may cause the Shanghai copper price to remain volatile. It is recommended that investors wait and see, paying attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data of Copper Futures - On August 7, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 78,460, up 180 from the previous day; the trading volume was 42,710 lots, a decrease of 13,679 lots; the open interest was 157,601 lots, a decrease of 973 lots; the inventory was 20,145 tons, a decrease of 201 tons [2]. - The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,500, up 150 from the previous day; the Shanghai copper basis was 40, a decrease of 30; the spot premium of Guangzhou electrolytic copper was - 45, an increase of 10; the spot premium of North China electrolytic copper was - 120, unchanged; the spot premium of East China electrolytic copper was - 15, unchanged [2]. - The closing price of LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) was 9,670.5, down 3.5 from the previous day; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 156,000 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 65.63, down 3.01; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 140, an increase of 4.79; the ratio of Shanghai - London copper prices was 8.1133, an increase of 0.02 [2]. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 4.414, up 0.03 from the previous day; the total inventory was 263,296 tons, an increase of 1,106 tons [2]. 3.2 Copper Foil Industry - Benefiting from good terminal orders, the operating rate of the copper foil industry is on the rise. In July 2025, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises was 77.28%, a month - on - month increase of 2.50 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 11.00 percentage points. SMM expects that the overall operating rate of the copper foil industry in August 2025 will continue to rise to 78.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.96 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 9.51 percentage points [2]. 3.3 Industry News - On August 5, the environmental assessment approval of the annual production project of 40,000 tons of copper strip blanks and tool steel of Anhui Zhongzui Copper Industry Co., Ltd. was publicly announced, with a 7 - day announcement period [2]. - Indonesia's PT Cresik smelter entered maintenance due to oxygen supply equipment failure, with a maintenance period of 2 - 4 weeks. The annual output of this smelter is about 300,000 tons, and the estimated impact on production is about 20,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Copper Products Industry - The daily processing fee of refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared with last week, leading to an increase in the operating rate of China's refined copper rods (recycled copper rods) compared with last week, and an increase in the raw material (finished product) inventory of refined copper rod enterprises compared with last week. The raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled copper rod enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper wire and cable production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of copper wire and cable enterprises has decreased compared with last week [3]. - The order volume (operating rate of production capacity) of China's copper enameled wires has increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of enameled wire enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate (production volume) of China's copper strip production capacity has increased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper strip enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's copper tube production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of copper tube enterprises have remained the same (increased) compared with last week [3]. - The operating rate of China's brass rod production capacity has decreased compared with last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory days of brass rod enterprises have decreased compared with last week [3]. 3.5 Investment Strategy - Due to the intertwined factors of the easing of mutual tariffs between China and the US and the traditional consumption off - season, the operating rate (production volume, import volume, export volume) of domestic copper product enterprises in August may decrease month - on - month. Specifically, the operating rates of electrolytic copper rods, copper strips, copper foils, and brass rods may increase month - on - month, while the operating rates of recycled copper rods, copper wire and cables, copper enameled wires, and copper tubes may decrease month - on - month [3].
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250807
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:33
【車安资讯】 智利Codelco表示BI Teniente铜矿7月31日因发生坍塌而暂停开采,Teck Resources二季度下调智利Quebrada Blanca钢矿25年预期生产量, | | Mewnoort旗下加拿大Red Chris 铜矿(25年预期生产量为2万金属吨)的非生产性项目地下作业区通道发生明岛事故而暂停运营,盎格鲁亚洲矿业 | | --- | --- | | | (Anglo Asian Mining)旗下Denirli钢矿开始试生产使25年钢精矿生产量为4000吨而26年及以后钢精矿生产量将增至1.5万吨,俄罗斯Monnickel | | | 将25年铜生产量由35. 3-37. 3万吨下调至34.3-35. 5万吨,山西运城垣曲县五龙突业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡,五矿资源加00 | | | 下Las Banbas(2025年预计生产量38万金属吨)和Budbar旗下Cons tancia(2025年预计生产量8-9. 7万金属吨)因非正规矿工暂停封路坑议至7月 | | | 18日,加拿大Manitoba北部发生野火使Hudbay Minerals已经暂停Show La ...
沪铜日评:国内铜冶炼厂8月检修产能或环减,国内电解铜社会库存量环比增加-20250807
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 02:18
智利Codelco表示BI Teniente铜矿7月31日因发生坍塌而暂停开采,Teck Resources二季度下调智利Quebrada Blanca钢矿25年预期生产量, | | Mewnoort旗下加拿大Red Chris 铜矿(25年预期生产量为2万金属吨)的非生产性项目地下作业区通道发生明岛事故而暂停运营,盎格鲁亚洲矿业 | | --- | --- | | | (Anglo Asian Mining)旗下Denirli钢矿开始试生产使25年钢精矿生产量为4000吨而26年及以后钢精矿生产量将增至1.5万吨,俄罗斯Monnickel | | | 将25年铜生产量由35. 3-37. 3万吨下调至34.3-35. 5万吨,山西运城垣曲县五龙突业旗下洛家河铜矿发生炮烟中毒事故致三人死亡,五矿资源加00 | | | 下Las Banbas(2025年预计生产量38万金属吨)和Budbar旗下Cons tancia(2025年预计生产量8-9. 7万金属吨)因非正规矿工暂停封路坑议至7月 | | | 18日,加拿大Manitoba北部发生野火使Hudbay Minerals已经暂停Show Lake运营和勘探 ...