需求预期与"黑天鹅"共振，铜价打开上方空间 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：9月25日SHFE主力合约价格大幅上扬至82540元/吨，较9 月24日上涨3.19%，突破83000元/吨关口。基差整体走弱，升水铜贴水从9 月24日95元/吨回落至80元/吨，平水铜贴水从15元/吨扩大至-10元/吨，湿 法铜贴水加深至-60元/吨；LME(0-3)贴水9月24日为-31.37美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：铜价暴涨期间持仓量显著扩大；但成交量明显收缩，受高铜 价抑制，下游采购情绪减弱，日内精铜杆成交量下滑，现货市场买卖清 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供给扰动加剧，9月25日印尼Grasberg铜矿宣布不可抗力，预计 2026年产量降35%；叠加9月24日加拿大Hudbay矿业关闭秘鲁Constancia选 矿厂，引发全球供应担忧。上游铜精矿市场成交活跃度低，SMM进口指数9 月19日报-40.8美元/干吨，小幅回升；华北炼厂检修导致供应有限，整体 供应偏紧。 需求端 ：需求受高铜价显著抑制，9月25日华北市场下游企业备货需求几 无，消费不佳促使加工企业考虑延长国庆假期；电力、建筑等领 ...

Market Overview - On September 25, A-share major indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.01% at 3853 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.67% and the ChiNext Index increased by 1.58%, reaching a three-year high [1][2]. Gaming Sector - The gaming sector saw a significant rise, with 145 domestic online games approved in September, leading to a surge in stocks such as Kunlun Wanwei, which increased by over 7% [4][5]. - Notable performers included: - Kunlun Wanwei: +7.40% [5] - Ice Age Network: +6.92% [5] - Gigabit: +5.67% [5] Copper and Industrial Metals - The copper and industrial metals sector was active, with stocks like Naipu Mining hitting the daily limit up of 20%, and other companies such as Jingyi Co. and Luoyang Molybdenum also reaching their limits [6][7]. - The price of copper surged due to supply disruptions at Freeport's Grasberg mine, which accounts for about 3% of global copper supply [7]. Controlled Nuclear Fusion - The controlled nuclear fusion sector showed strong performance, with Ha Welding Huatong hitting the daily limit up of 20% [8][9]. - The China International Industrial Expo showcased the "China Circulation No. 4" fusion experimental device, aimed at verifying the reliability of large high-temperature superconducting magnets [9]. Wind Power Equipment - The wind power equipment sector saw significant gains, with Jixin Technology hitting the daily limit up [12][13]. - A report from Wood Mackenzie projected that global annual new wind power installations will exceed 170 GW over the next five years [13]. Precious Metals - The precious metals sector declined, with Shandong Gold leading the drop, falling over 4% [14][15]. - Gold prices retreated, with COMEX gold futures down 1.24% to $3768.5 per ounce [15]. Port and Shipping - The port and shipping sector experienced declines, with Nanjing Port and Ningbo Maritime both dropping over 6% [16][17]. Individual Stock Movements - Huadong Heavy Machinery saw a drop of 5.25%, with a market capitalization of 8.374 billion [18][19]. - Shareholders of Huadong Heavy Machinery announced plans to reduce their holdings, which may impact stock performance [22].