需求预期与"黑天鹅"共振，铜价打开上方空间 一、日度市场总结 铜期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差 ：9月25日SHFE主力合约价格大幅上扬至82540元/吨，较9 月24日上涨3.19%，突破83000元/吨关口。基差整体走弱，升水铜贴水从9 月24日95元/吨回落至80元/吨，平水铜贴水从15元/吨扩大至-10元/吨，湿 法铜贴水加深至-60元/吨；LME(0-3)贴水9月24日为-31.37美元/吨。 持仓与成交 ：铜价暴涨期间持仓量显著扩大；但成交量明显收缩，受高铜 价抑制，下游采购情绪减弱，日内精铜杆成交量下滑，现货市场买卖清 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端 ：供给扰动加剧，9月25日印尼Grasberg铜矿宣布不可抗力，预计 2026年产量降35%；叠加9月24日加拿大Hudbay矿业关闭秘鲁Constancia选 矿厂，引发全球供应担忧。上游铜精矿市场成交活跃度低，SMM进口指数9 月19日报-40.8美元/干吨，小幅回升；华北炼厂检修导致供应有限，整体 供应偏紧。 需求端 ：需求受高铜价显著抑制，9月25日华北市场下游企业备货需求几 无，消费不佳促使加工企业考虑延长国庆假期；电力、建筑等领 ...

又一家企业宣布签订储能订单，涉及5GWh储能项目合作。 | 《2025电力市场与数智化储能调研报告》 电力交易、技术融合、虚拟电厂与商业创新 | | --- | | 出品方: 因 行家说储能 | | 鸣谢:以下参编单位的特别贡献(排名不分先后) | | UHES HTHIUM | | PIOT 派语科技 | | 调研止式启动,欢迎参编 扫码了解 | 据行家说储能了解，作为BNEF Tier 1全球储能系统供应商，远信储能具备BBB级可融资性评级、年产能超20GWh的规模化生产能力。2025年上半年，远信储能全球 直流侧储能出货量达15GWh，海外在手订单储备充足，预计 2026 年海外业务贡献收入占比将超30%。 9月23日，波兰三家客户高管代表团一行共11人到访远信储能总部。期间，各方与远信储能分别签订了战略合作协议并批量下单VenturePro和GridUltra产品，远信储 能将从技术、产品、开发等多维度支持客户在波兰开展超过 5GWh储 能项目投资与建设。 本次合作汇聚了波兰能源领域三家不同环节的企业： 在能源基础设施领域，合作方专注于变电站改造与工业电气工程，具备从设计、施工到长期运维的全流程服务能 ...

Core Viewpoint - Huijin Tong announced a partnership with Qingdao Jintong New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. to sign an energy management and energy-saving service contract, focusing on building a storage power station to leverage peak and valley electricity price differences for energy savings [2] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Contract Details** - The contract involves a total transaction amount of approximately 44 million yuan over a cooperation period of 10 years [2] - The energy-saving benefits will be shared between Huijin Tong and the partner at a ratio of 1:9 [2] - **Projected Benefits** - The storage project is expected to generate total energy-saving benefits of around 14 million yuan during the contract period [2] - Huijin Tong's share of the energy-saving benefits is estimated to be approximately 1.4 million yuan [2]

2024年1至12月份，霍普股份的营业收入构成为：建筑设计占比72.82%，建筑绿能占比24.4%，其他占 比2.79%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 霍普股份（SZ 301024，收盘价：47.2元）8月19日晚间发布公告称，根据公司全资子公司天津嘉晖电力 工程有限公司前期取得的阆苑储能项目实施需要，天津嘉晖于近日与思源清能电气电子有限公司、上海 思源输配电工程有限公司签订采购合同，合同总价款合计为2.32亿元。为储能设备整体投运验收合格之 日起算，储能系统全套质保期为3年，电芯质保期5年，或储能系统全套设备货到现场之日起38个月、电 芯货到现场之日起62个月，两者以先到为准。该合同的签署及执行有利于推动阆苑储能项目的实施和交 付，预计将对公司未来业绩产生积极影响，具体影响金额以相关年度经审计的财务报告为准。 ...

同时，全省建立了规模达900万千瓦的需求侧响应资源池，吸引超4000户用户参与市场化交易；此 外，各类新型主体参与用电负荷精准调节，全省已建成虚拟电厂30座、储能项目295个，可调能力超100 万千瓦。 目前，四川电网全网总装机约1.5亿千瓦，水电、新能源、火电等各类电源实现应发尽发，省外购 电能购尽购。国网四川省电力公司持续优化电网运行方式，加大对重要输配电通道和设备的特巡维护力 度。近8000人的抢修队伍、200余辆中低压发电车24小时待命，确保运维无盲区、抢修不过夜，全力以 赴保障电力可靠供应。（记者 李欣忆） 8月5日，四川电网最大用电负荷攀升至7418.6万千瓦，较去年最高负荷6929万千瓦增长约7%，是 今年入夏以来第4次刷新历史纪录。空调降温负荷超过3000万千瓦，是用电负荷屡创新高的主要原因。 目前，四川电网运行安全平稳，电力供应稳定可靠。 国网四川省电力公司坚决贯彻省委省政府决策部署，坚持"存住水、发好电、保住网、错好峰"，充 分发挥电力保供专班作用，统筹省内电源发起来、电力外购保起来、错峰负荷控起来、市场调节用起 来；为应对高温高负荷挑战，提前建成投运23项迎峰度夏及世运会保供重点工程，全 ...

近日，川渝等地持续高温，用电负荷持续攀升。记者从国网四川省电力公司了解到，7月，四川电 网用电负荷两次创新高，超7200万千瓦；8月，四川电网最大用电负荷预计超7400万千瓦，同比增长 6.8%。 据了解，目前四川电网全网总装机约1.5亿千瓦，其中水电约1亿千瓦、新能源2250万千瓦、火电 2320万千瓦，各类电源已实现应发尽发。与此同时，全省超4000户用户主动参与需求侧市场化交易。 此外，各类新型经营主体参与用电负荷精准调节，全省已建成虚拟电厂30座、储能项目295个，可 调能力超100万千瓦。（记者 李欣忆） ...

Group 1: Report's Core Information - The report is about the lithium carbonate market, with the title "Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range Fluctuations, Pay Attention to Macroeconomic Sentiment Switch" and the date of July 30, 2025 [1] Group 2: Fundamental Tracking Futures Market Data - For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 70,840 yuan, down 2,280 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 744,160, down 261,235 from T - 1; the open interest was 300,620, down 77,852 from T - 1 [1] - For the 2511 contract, the closing price was 70,560 yuan, down 860 yuan from T - 1; the trading volume was 314,089, down 13,756 from T - 1; the open interest was 163,120, down 5,616 from T - 1 [1] Basis and Related Price Differences - The basis of spot - 2509 was 2,310 yuan, the basis of spot - 2511 was 2,590 yuan, and the basis of 2509 - 2511 was 280 yuan [1] - The price difference between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 2,150 yuan, and the price difference between spot and CIF was 9,279 yuan [1] Raw Material and Lithium Salt Prices - The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777 dollars, down 28 dollars from T - 1; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,775 yuan, down 30 yuan from T - 1 [1] - The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan, down 750 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan, down 700 yuan from T - 1 [1] Other Related Product Prices - The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 33,315 yuan, down 180 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) was 110,250 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1] Group 3: Macroeconomic and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,069 yuan/ton, down 668 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,000 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan/ton from the previous working day [2] - From January to June this year, 23 provincial - level administrative regions in China released 1,121 energy - storage project lists, with a total installed capacity exceeding 198.145GW and an energy - storage capacity of 507.803GWh [3] Group 4: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate was 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive outlook [3]

Group 1 - The latest stock price of JinkoSolar is 5.57 yuan, an increase of 1.46% compared to the previous trading day [1] - The opening price was 5.50 yuan, with a highest point of 5.58 yuan and a lowest point of 5.44 yuan, with a trading volume of 696,074 hands and a transaction amount of 383 million yuan [1] - JinkoSolar operates in the photovoltaic equipment industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of photovoltaic products, including silicon rods, wafers, cells, and modules [1] Group 2 - JinkoSolar has established a partnership with Metlen Group to participate in a 1.6GWh energy storage project in Chile, which is one of the large-scale energy storage projects in emerging markets scheduled for delivery in the first half of 2025 [1] - In the first half of 2025, global energy storage battery shipments are expected to increase by 106% year-on-year, with domestic manufacturers accounting for 97.67% of the total shipments [1] - On July 29, JinkoSolar saw a net inflow of 39.61 million yuan in main funds, representing 0.07% of its circulating market value [1]

Core Viewpoint - Recent developments in the energy storage sector highlight significant contracts and projects involving major companies like Fluence and Tesla, indicating a growing trend in battery storage solutions, particularly in Australia [1][4][9]. Group 1: Company Updates - Fluence has secured a contract for a 600MWh battery storage project in New South Wales, Australia, with AMPYR, which includes a 20-year service agreement [4][6]. - Pritchard's subsidiary, Hai Si Da Sodium Star, has signed a procurement contract for a 30MWh sodium-ion battery storage system with South Grid Technology, marking a significant milestone in sodium-ion battery applications [2][3]. - Tesla has completed the installation of 164 Megapack 2XL units for the Tarong battery storage project in Queensland, which has a total capacity of 300MW/600MWh [7][9]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Pritchard anticipates a net profit of 200 to 240 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 38.88% to 66.65% [3]. - Tesla deployed 9.6GWh of battery storage products in Q2 2025, contributing to a total storage capacity of approximately 20GWh for the first half of the year [10]. Group 3: Market Trends - The projects undertaken by Fluence and Tesla are part of a broader strategy to enhance energy storage capacity in Australia, with Fluence's project being a critical first step towards AMPYR's goal of delivering 6000MWh by 2030 [6][9]. - The increasing adoption of sodium-ion batteries, as demonstrated by Pritchard's recent contract, suggests a diversification in battery technology within the energy storage market [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - For lead, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 0.15% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract dropped by 0.58%. With no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, processing fees are likely to rise. The operation of primary lead is stable with a slight increase, while the operation of secondary lead is at a relatively low level due to rising scrap lead - acid battery prices and limited raw materials. The demand is gradually shifting from the off - season to the peak season, and the drag on lead prices may slow down. However, due to the inventory accumulation risk, the upward momentum of lead prices is limited [1]. - For zinc, on the previous trading day, the average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.94% compared to the previous day, and the main Shanghai zinc contract closed down 1.07%. Refineries have sufficient raw material reserves, zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and the output is showing an increasing trend. The demand is weak, and most downstream enterprises only replenish inventory as needed. Recently, zinc prices have rebounded due to positive macro - sentiment and supply - side disturbances, but the rebound space is limited, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities after the elimination of favorable factors [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Market Data Lead - SMM1 lead ingot average price: 16,925.00 yuan/ton, - 0.15% [1] - Shanghai lead futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 17,100.00 yuan/ton, - 0.58% [1] - Shanghai lead basis: - 175.00 yuan/ton, + 75.00 [1] - LME 3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,039.00 US dollars/ton, - 0.12% [1] - Shanghai - London lead price ratio: 8.39, - 0.46% [1] Zinc - SMM1 zinc ingot average price: 22,210.00 yuan/ton, - 0.94% [1] - Shanghai zinc futures - spot price (main contract closing price): 22,255.00 yuan/ton, - 1.07% [1] - Shanghai zinc basis: - 45.00 yuan/ton, + 30.00 [1] - LME 3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading): 2,713.50 US dollars/ton, - 1.00% [1] - Shanghai - London zinc price ratio: 8.20, - 0.06% [1] 2. Inventory Data Lead - LME inventory: 270,075.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory: 46,389.00 tons, + 0.22% [1] Zinc - LME inventory: 114,900.00 tons, 0.00% [1] - Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory: 6,824.00 tons, - 3.57% [1] 3. Trading Volume and Open Interest Data Lead - Futures active contract trading volume: 31,387.00 lots, - 2.89% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 51,411.00 lots, + 0.01% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 0.61, - 2.90% [1] Zinc - Futures active contract trading volume: 178,683.00 lots, + 11.04% [1] - Futures active contract open interest: 134,433.00 lots, - 4.10% [1] - Trading volume - open interest ratio: 1.33, + 15.79% [1] 4. Industry News Lead - Shanghai Municipal Commission of Commerce and other eight departments issued the "Implementation Rules for the Replacement Subsidy of Electric Bicycles in Shanghai in 2025". From July 1 to December 31, 2025, individual consumers who trade in old electric bicycles (including batteries) for new ones will receive a one - time 500 - yuan subsidy, and an additional 100 - yuan subsidy for those who trade in for lead - acid battery electric bicycles [1] - Nandu Power signed a 1.4GWh energy storage system supply contract for a large - scale new - energy photovoltaic project in India [1] Zinc - In April 2025, Peru's zinc concentrate production was 137,600 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3%, and the total production from January to April was 458,300 metal tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7% [1] - A mine in southwest China's zinc ore tender price in July was 3,770 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month increase of 170 yuan/metal ton [1] - Nexa's Cajamarquilla smelter resumed full - scale operation with normal capacity utilization after a three - day shutdown [1]