Core Views - Low inventory and supply contradictions support the bottom, but the easing of tariff disturbances and the seasonal weakening of consumption will cause Shanghai copper to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to domestic policy expectations and the rhythm of inventory accumulation [5] - The inventory of copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has dropped to 72,543 tons, and the recovery of import demand supports the tightness of the spot market [4] - The port inventory of copper concentrate has dropped to 560,900 tons, and the processing fee remains at a low level of -$42.63 per ton, increasing the pressure on smelting plants to cut production [4] - The United States only imposes a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products, exempting raw materials such as cathode copper. The decline in the COMEX premium has dragged down LME copper [4] - The growth rate of power grid investment has slowed down, and air conditioner production has entered the off-season. The end-users' acceptance of high prices is limited, which restricts the consumption elasticity [4] Copper Futures Market Data (Weekly) - The latest price of the main Shanghai copper contract is 78,400 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.07%, a position of 167,671 lots, and a trading volume of 80,943 lots [6] - The latest price of international copper is 69,530 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.18%, a position of 4,914 lots, and a trading volume of 4,289 lots [6] - The latest price of LME copper for three months is $9,803 per ton, with a weekly decline of 0.96%, a position of 239,014 lots, and a trading volume of 11,075 lots [6] - The latest price of COMEX copper is $566.95 per pound, with a weekly decline of 1.71%, a position of 104,219 lots, and a trading volume of 25,868 lots [6] Copper Spot Data (Weekly) - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous 1 copper is 78,330 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 1,120 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 1.41% [10] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao is 78,985 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 720 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.9% [10] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 620 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.78% [10] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous is 79,120 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 710 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 0.89% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Nonferrous premium is 110 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 130 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 54.17% [12] - The latest price of Shanghai Wumaomao premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 80 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.48% [12] - The latest price of Guangdong Southern Storage premium is 85 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 65 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 43.33% [12] - The latest price of Yangtze River Nonferrous premium is 115 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 60 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 34.29% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (spot/three months) premium is -$51.71 per ton, with a weekly increase of $16.53 and a weekly decline rate of 24.22% [12] - The latest price of the LME copper (three months/15 months) premium is -$92.25 per ton, with a weekly increase of $10.37 and a weekly decline rate of 10.11% [12] Copper Advanced Data (Weekly) - The latest price of copper import profit and loss is -249.88 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 232.62 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 48.21% [13] - The latest price of copper concentrate TC is -$42.75 per ton, with a weekly increase of $0.42 and a weekly decline rate of 0.97% [13] - The latest copper-aluminum ratio is 3.7801, with a weekly decline of 0.0635 and a weekly decline rate of 1.65% [13] - The latest refined scrap price difference is 805.43 yuan per ton, with a weekly decline of 35.31 yuan and a weekly decline rate of 4.2% [13] Copper Inventory (Weekly) - The total warehouse receipt of Shanghai copper is 18,083 tons, with a weekly decline of 7,424 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.11% [17] - The total warehouse receipt of international copper is 3,313 tons, with a weekly decline of 1,354 tons and a weekly decline rate of 29.01% [17] - The inventory of Shanghai copper is 73,423 tons, with a weekly decline of 11,133 tons and a weekly decline rate of 13.17% [17] - The registered warehouse receipt of LME copper is 108,225 tons, with a weekly decline of 4,375 tons and a weekly decline rate of 3.89% [17] - The cancelled warehouse receipt of LME copper is 19,400 tons, with a weekly increase of 7,150 tons and a weekly increase rate of 58.37% [17] - The inventory of LME copper is 127,625 tons, with a weekly increase of 2,775 tons and a weekly increase rate of 2.22% [19] - The registered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 109,453 tons, with a weekly increase of 1,404 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.3% [19] - The unregistered warehouse receipt of COMEX copper is 143,978 tons, with a weekly increase of 8,246 tons and a weekly increase rate of 6.08% [19] - The inventory of COMEX copper is 253,431 tons, with a weekly increase of 9,650 tons and a weekly increase rate of 3.96% [19] - The port inventory of copper ore is 409,000 tons, with a weekly decline of 48,000 tons and a weekly decline rate of 10.5% [19] - The social inventory is 418,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 4,300 tons and a weekly increase rate of 1.04% [19] Copper Midstream Production (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly output of refined copper was 1.302 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%. The cumulative output was 7.363 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.5% [21] - In June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.214 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%. The cumulative output was 11.765 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [21] Copper Midstream Capacity Utilization (Monthly) - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of refined copper rods was 15.84 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 62.32%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.78 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of scrap copper rods was 8.19 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 32.01%, a month-on-month increase of 3.08 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.98 percentage points [23] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper strips was 3.59 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 68.73%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.55 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.22 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper rods was 2.2865 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 51.52%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.97 percentage points, and a year-on-year decrease of 0.37 percentage points [24] - In June 2025, the total annual capacity of copper tubes was 2.783 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 72.25%, a month-on-month decrease of 10.35 percentage points, and a year-on-year increase of 1.01 percentage points [24] Copper Element Imports (Monthly) - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper concentrate was 2.34969 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 14.757457 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of anode copper was 68,548 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative import volume was 382,709 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of cathode copper was 300,506 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%. The cumulative import volume was 1,646,147 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of scrap copper was 183,244 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The cumulative import volume was 1,145,405 tons, a year-on-year increase of 0% [26] - In June 2025, the monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The cumulative import volume was 2,630,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6% [26]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The copper price is still oscillating within a wide - range, mainly affected by macro - environment changes. With terminal demand support and a tight supply expectation, the upward and downward amplitudes are limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of copper tariffs and wait for new drivers [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper opened low, rose, and was under pressure during the day. The weak US economic data pressured the US dollar. The Trump administration doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs to 50% and launched a Section 232 investigation on copper imports, triggering strong expectations of copper tariff policies. The supply is expected to be tight, but the actual supply has not decreased yet. The domestic PMI data is good, and the off - season demand is resilient, supporting the copper price. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continued to decline since the end of May, confirming the downstream export and demand. The demand has weakened marginally in the short - term and entered the off - season, but there are no obvious changes in the fundamentals [1] Periodic and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Opened high, went low, then high, fluctuated, and closed down, at 78270. The long positions of the top twenty decreased by 2631 to 126036 hands, and the short positions decreased by 1325 to 128264 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 90 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 5 yuan/ton. On June 2, 2025, the LME official price was 9619 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was 54.5 dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of May 30, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.45 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.34 cents/pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31700 tons, a decrease of 246 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 52000 tons, a decrease of 1900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 138000 tons, a slight decrease of 3350 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 185700 short tons, an increase of 1498 short tons from the previous period [9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The Trump administration's plan to double steel and aluminum import tariffs and initiate a Section 232 investigation on copper imports has led to strong expectations of copper tariff policies. China's economic output is expanding, with the May manufacturing PMI up 0.5 percentage points and the composite PMI output index up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The supply side is expected to remain tight, but the actual supply of refined copper has not decreased. The domestic PMI data is positive, and the demand during the off - season is resilient, which supports copper prices. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continued to decline since the end of May, indicating downstream demand. If the copper tariff policy becomes clearer, it may lead to expectations of supply shortages and benefit copper prices. Currently, copper is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to subsequent tariff policies and downstream demand resilience [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened high and closed slightly lower. The Trump administration's actions on tariffs have raised expectations of copper tariff policies. China's economic indicators show expansion. The supply of copper is expected to be tight, but actual supply remains stable. The domestic PMI data is good, and off - season demand is resilient, supporting copper prices. The inventory decline in the Shanghai Futures Exchange reflects downstream demand. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the economy persists. If copper tariff policies become clear, it may boost copper prices. Currently, copper is in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and downstream demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated, and closed lower at 77,650. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 6,123 to 119,553 hands, and the short positions increased by 6,221 to 126,122 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 185 yuan/ton, while in South China it was - 60 yuan/ton. On June 2, 2025, the LME official price was 9,600 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 55 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 30, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.45 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.34 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31,400 tons, a decrease of 2,724 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 143,900 tons, a slight decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 182,600 short tons, an increase of 1,997 short tons from the previous period [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the next 1 - 2 weeks, the upside space for copper is limited. There is a continuous game between the shortage of recycled copper raw materials and the release of mine production capacity on the supply side, and the resumption of scrap copper trade between China and the US still takes time. On the demand side, post - delivery restocking by downstream enterprises may briefly boost the spot premium, but high copper prices still suppress purchasing willingness. At the macro level, the decline of the US April CPI to 2.3% weakens the support for the US dollar. Overall, copper needs to be wary of inventory pressure and the risk of macro - sentiment switching [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - **Copper Futures Market Data Changes Analysis** - On May 14, 2025, the price of the SHFE copper main contract rose slightly to 78,630 yuan/ton, a 0.95% increase from the previous day, and the LME copper price also rose to $9,624.5/ton. The spot discount of domestic premium copper widened to - 15 yuan/ton, and the discounts of flat - water copper and wet - process copper deepened to - 40 yuan/ton and - 80 yuan/ton respectively. The LME (0 - 3) premium dropped from $23.87/ton on May 8 to $19.17/ton [1]. - The SHFE copper open interest continued to shrink, with the inventory on May 14 dropping to 185,575 tons, a 2.15% decrease from the previous week, while the LME copper inventory soared to 50,069 tons, a 71.72% increase from the previous period. In terms of trading volume, the trading volume of the BC copper main contract was 16,871 lots, and the open interest increased to 2,471 lots, indicating increased capital activity [2]. - **Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes** - **Supply Side**: In April 2025, the operating rate of Chinese scrap - produced anode copper enterprises decreased by 5.33 percentage points to 44.32% month - on - month due to the shortage of recycled copper raw materials, while the operating rate of mineral anode copper enterprises increased slightly by 2.50 percentage points to 72.40%. The new project of Chifeng Chehugou Copper - Molybdenum Mine (with a reserve of 9 billion tons) and the progress of the Ambler Mining Area Act in Alaska, USA, indicate the potential for medium - and long - term mine production capacity release, but it is difficult to alleviate the supply gap of recycled copper in the short term. The suspension of Sino - US trade has led to a loosening of scrap copper exports, but inventory transfer still takes time [3]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream demand is marginally weakening. Near the delivery date, the purchasing sentiment in the spot market is suppressed by the high monthly spread. In North China, the spot discount widened to 480 yuan/ton, and downstream enterprises generally wait to purchase after the contract change. There is a structural adjustment in the consumer electronics field, such as Solus, a Samsung supplier, accelerating the divestiture of its OLED business to focus on copper foil production, reflecting the industry's long - term bet on copper demand for electric vehicle batteries, but there is no significant boost in short - term demand in the power and construction sectors [4]. - **Inventory Side**: Global inventories are diverging. The LME copper inventory soared by 20,912 tons to 50,069 tons, reaching a phased high; the SHFE inventory continued to decline to 185,600 tons. The COMEX inventory also slightly increased to 165,100 short tons [5]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring | Data Index | May 14, 2025 | May 13, 2025 | May 8, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper | 79,060 | 78,270 | 78,560 | 790 | 1.01% | yuan/ton | | Premium Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 15 | 5 | - 5 | - 20 | - 400.00% | yuan/ton | | Flat - Water Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 40 | - 25 | - 30 | - 15 | - 60.00% | yuan/ton | | Wet - Process Copper (Spot Premium/Discount) | - 80 | - 70 | - 75 | - 10 | - 14.29% | yuan/ton | | LME (0 - 3) | - | 19 | 24 | - | - | dollars/ton | | SHFE | 78,630 | 77,890 | 78,070 | 740 | 0.95% | yuan/ton | | LME | - | 9,625 | 9,502 | - | - | dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 50,069 | 29,157 | 20,084 | 20,912 | 71.72% | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 185,575 | 189,650 | 190,750 | - 4,075 | - 2.15% | tons | | COMEX Inventory | - | 165,112 | 163,458 | - | - | short tons | [8] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - In May 2025, the expected operating rate of scrap - produced anode copper enterprises is 43.62%, a 0.70 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month, mainly affected by the shortage of recycled copper raw materials [9]. - In April 2025, the operating rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises was 53.37%, a 2.80 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month. The operating rate of scrap - produced enterprises was 44.32%, a 5.33 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month [9]. - The 19.8 - million - ton/year engineering design project of Chifeng Chehugou Copper - Molybdenum Mine was signed, with an estimated reserve of about 9 billion tons and a total investment of about 5 billion yuan, involving the mining and beneficiation of non - ferrous metals such as copper and molybdenum [9]. - Dianzhong Non - ferrous and Chinalco Environmental Protection signed a recycled copper resource supply contract, achieving cross - regional circulation and the establishment of a recycling system, and enhancing resource security capabilities [9]. - In March 2023, Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons; the production of Escondida Copper Mine increased by 18.9% to 120,600 tons, and the production of Collahuasi Copper Mine decreased by 29.3% to 35,200 tons [9]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts The report includes charts on China's PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, the correlation between US interest rates and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper open interest, LME copper net long positions analysis, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [10][12][14].