1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For alumina, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of stable supply and weak demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the fundamental situation may be in a stage of excessive supply and weak demand. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - term long trading at low prices and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 23,385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,790 yuan/ton, a decrease of 34 yuan [2] - The main - second - contract spread of Shanghai Aluminum is - 115 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan; the main - second - contract spread of alumina is - 198 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [2] - The main - contract positions of Shanghai Aluminum are 207,370 lots, a decrease of 17,386 lots; the main - contract positions of alumina are 359,707 lots, a decrease of 15,991 lots [2] - LME aluminum canceled warrants are 54,525 tons, unchanged; the total inventory of alumina is 265,223 tons, an increase of 42,736 tons [2] - The three - month quotation of LME electrolytic aluminum is 3,059 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 40 US dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 495,175 tons, a decrease of 8,014 tons; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.64, a decrease of 0.09 [2] - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 21,915 yuan/ton, a decrease of 680 yuan; the registered warrants of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 66,791 tons, unchanged [2] - The main - second - contract spread of cast aluminum alloy is - 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 340 yuan; the inventory of Shanghai Aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 216,771 tons, an increase of 19,718 tons [2] - The main - contract positions of cast aluminum alloy are 4,361 lots, a decrease of 169 lots; the inventory of cast aluminum alloy on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 74,068 tons, an increase of 1,635 tons [2] - The warrants of Shanghai Aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 150,289 tons, a decrease of 423 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 23,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 420 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 23,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 23,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 450 yuan [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,685 yuan/ton, an increase of 480 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan [2] - The aluminum premium and discount in Shanghai Wumao is - 170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount is - 27.72 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.73 US dollars; the basis of alumina is - 235 yuan/ton, an increase of 34 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of pre - baked anodes in the northwest region is 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the national alumina start - up rate is 83.49%, a decrease of 0.87 percentage points [2] - The alumina output is 801.08 tons, a decrease of 12.72 tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.00%, a decrease of 1.00 percentage point [2] - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 tons, an increase of 25.33 tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 28.90 tons, an increase of 2.32 tons [2] - The average price of broken primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,250 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan; the average price of broken primary aluminum in Shandong metal scrap is 17,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 194,102.07 tons, an increase of 31,482.14 tons; China's export volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 70.80 tons, a decrease of 0.73 tons [2] - The export volume of alumina is 21.00 tons, an increase of 4.00 tons; the import volume of alumina is 22.78 tons, an increase of 31.36 tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 77.20 tons, an increase of 3.00 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 189,196.58 tons, an increase of 43,086.86 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,536.20 tons, an increase of 12.00 tons [2] - The export volume of primary aluminum is 37,575.30 tons, a decrease of 15,472.39 tons; the aluminum product output is 613.56 tons, an increase of 20.46 tons [2] - The export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 tons, a decrease of 3.00 tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 68.40 tons, a decrease of 1.60 tons [2] - The export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 tons, a decrease of 0.51 tons; the total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 tons, unchanged [2] - The aluminum alloy output is 182.50 tons, unchanged; the national real estate climate index is 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 [2] - The automobile output is 341.15 vehicles, a decrease of 10.75 vehicles [2] 3.5 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 40.04%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 31.38%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points [2] - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 22.18%, a decrease of 0.0399 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.88, a decrease of 0.0161 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The central bank held the 2026 credit market work conference, focusing on supporting key areas such as expanding domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises [2] - The US January "small non - farm" ADP employment number was lower than expected, with only 22,000 new private - sector jobs added in January [2] - The US January ISM services PMI index slightly declined to 53.8, better than market expectations, but new order growth slowed and export orders shrank at the fastest rate since March 2023 [2] - Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, emphasizing the importance of the Taiwan issue and the need for the US to handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [2] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January were 900,000, a year - on - year increase of 1%. Tesla China's wholesale sales were 69,129, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [2] - The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that efforts should be made to ensure the basic housing needs of young people, develop affordable rental housing, public rental housing, and配售型保障性住房, and support local governments to appropriately increase the area of affordable housing according to the needs of multi - child families [2]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the market is in a stage of slightly converging supply and stable demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] - For electrolytic aluminum, the market is in a stage of slightly increasing supply and a demand off - season. The aluminum price remains in high - level oscillation due to positive macro expectations. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] - For cast aluminum alloy, the market is in a stage of converging supply and weakening demand. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading and control trading rhythm and risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 635 yuan/ton to 23,725 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 30,668 lots. The LME aluminum price decreased by 54.5 dollars/ton to 3,074.5 dollars/ton, and the inventory decreased by 2,500 tons to 501,750 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.07 to 7.72 [2] - The closing price of the main contract of alumina futures decreased by 75 yuan/ton to 2,863 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 61,525 lots [2] - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 22,585 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 390 lots. The registered warehouse receipts of cast aluminum alloy in the SHFE increased by 539 tons to 69,737 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals A00 aluminum increased by 230 yuan/ton to 23,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals AOO aluminum decreased by 190 yuan/ton to 24,170 yuan/ton. The spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals remained at 0 yuan/ton [2] - The basis of cast aluminum alloy increased by 405 yuan/ton to 1,115 yuan/ton, the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 865 yuan/ton to 415 yuan/ton, and the basis of alumina increased by 75 yuan/ton to - 278 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production in the current month increased by 27.30 million tons to 813.80 million tons, the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.51 percentage points to 85.00%, and the demand decreased by 24.27 million tons to 705.96 million tons [2] - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap increased by 350 yuan/ton to 18,550 yuan/ton, and in Shandong metal scrap increased by 400 yuan/ton to 17,850 yuan/ton [2] - China's import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 4,396.16 tons to 162,756.17 tons, and the export volume increased by 39.07 tons to 71.53 tons. The export volume of alumina decreased by 1.00 million tons to 17.00 million tons, and the import volume increased by 4.31 million tons to 23.24 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 12.00 million tons to 4,536.20 million tons, the production of primary aluminum imports decreased by 101,652.54 tons to 146,109.72 tons, and the exports increased by 28,474.13 tons to 53,047.69 tons [2] - The production of aluminum products increased by 23.70 million tons to 593.10 million tons, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products increased by 7.00 million tons to 57.00 million tons [2] - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 9.17 million tons to 70.00 million tons, and the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.03 million tons to 3.06 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national real estate climate index decreased by 0.52 to 91.90, and the automobile production increased by 24.00 million vehicles to 351.90 million vehicles [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.58 percentage points to 19.61%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 1.61 percentage points to 17.06% [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options of Shanghai aluminum's main contract increased by 0.0268 percentage points to 27.94%, and the call - put ratio decreased by 0.0324 to 1.54 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 52.4%, up 1.5 percentage points month - on - month, reaching the highest in 2025 [2] - In December 2025, China's passenger car market retail sales were 2.296 million vehicles, down 13% year - on - year and up 3% month - on - month. The new energy vehicle market retail sales were 1.387 million vehicles, up 7% year - on - year and up 5% month - on - month, with a new energy retail penetration rate of 60.4% [2] - In December 2025 in the US, the private - sector employment in ADP data increased by 41,000, reversing the previous month's decline but lower than market expectations. In November 2025, the JOLTS job openings in the US dropped to 7.146 million, far lower than the market - expected 7.6 million [2] - The eurozone's CPI in December 2025 slowed to 2%, and the core CPI slowed from 2.4% in November to 2.3%. The market expects the European Central Bank to remain unchanged in the long - term [2] - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, running in the range of 49% - 50% for 10 consecutive months [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of loose supply and stable demand. It is recommended to conduct short - long trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a situation of stable supply and slightly converging demand. It is recommended to conduct shock trading with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - Cast aluminum is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - long trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai aluminum was 20,460 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of alumina futures was 2,860 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The LME three - month aluminum quotation was 2,517 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 5356 hands, and those of alumina decreased by 1 hand. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2025 tons, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased by 0.02 [2]. - The closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 19,565 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan; the positions increased by 291 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 20,620 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 225 yuan to 485 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 65 yuan to 160 yuan. The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium increased by 240 yuan to 200 yuan; the LME aluminum premium increased by 2.81 US dollars to 2.39 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 732.30 million tons per month, down 15.22 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 693.70 million tons per month, down 30.02 million tons [2]. - The average price of broken raw aluminum in Foshan metal waste decreased by 50 yuan to 16,350 yuan/ton; the import volume of aluminum waste and scrap in China increased by 6,949.79 tons to 190,390.17 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 28,656.52 tons to 250,476.81 tons; the export volume increased by 4,972.94 tons to 13,672.79 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 20,000 tons to 4,520.20 million tons; the production of aluminum products was 576.40 million tons per month, down 21.77 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 3.37 million tons to 61.60 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy decreased by 0.16 million tons to 1.66 million tons [2]. - The national real estate prosperity index was 93.72, down 0.13; the automobile production was 264.20 million vehicles per month, up 3.80 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum remained unchanged at 9.22%; the 40 - day historical volatility decreased by 0.03 to 10.41% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money IV of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased by 0.0022 to 11.21%; the call - put ratio increased by 0.0278 to 0.85 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In May, the added value of large - scale industries nationwide increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%. From January to May, the national fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year [2]. - From January to May, the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year, and the new housing construction area decreased by 22.8%. In May, the housing prices in all tiers of cities decreased month - on - month [2]. - In June, the manufacturing activity in New York State contracted more than expected, and the New York Fed manufacturing index dropped nearly 7 points to - 16, remaining in the contraction range for the fourth consecutive month [2].