智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，中国宏桥(01378)作为全球领先铝全产业链生产商，全产业链 配套及规模优势打造盈利护城河，铝土矿、电力、氧化铝高自给率保障公司吨铝成本优势。该行预计 25-27年公司实现归母净利润248.03亿元、258.1亿元、279.6亿元，分别同比+10.9%、4.1%、8.3%。2026 年行业可比公司平均估值为11倍，考虑公司高股息属性，给予公司2026年12倍市盈率，目标价为34.3港 元，维持"推荐"评级。 华创证券主要观点如下： 中国宏桥三季度业绩或超预期 中国宏桥全资子公司山东宏桥发布三季报，公司前三季度营业收入1169.3亿元，同比+6%;净利润193.7 亿元，同比+23%其中Q3营收387亿元，同比+2%，环比+2%，净利润69亿元，同比+18%，环比+14%。 该行认为Q3业绩增长主要来自电解铝盈利能力快速提升，根据钢联，Q3电解铝行业利润4724元/吨，环 比25Q2+14%，同比24Q3+84%，氧化铝行业利润346元/吨，环比25Q2+120%，同比24Q3-68%，若计入 印尼氧化铝项目及几内亚铝土矿业务利润贡献，中国宏桥Q3业绩明显超预期。 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for China Hongqiao (01378.HK) with a target price of HKD 34.3, indicating a potential upside from the current price of HKD 31.36 [1]. Core Views - China Hongqiao is positioned as a high-dividend stock in the electrolytic aluminum sector, showcasing both growth potential and industry leadership [1]. - The company has achieved record-high performance in its recent financial results, with a significant increase in net profit and revenue, driven by enhanced profitability in the electrolytic aluminum sector [4][5]. - The company is optimistic about its future prospects, as evidenced by the controlling shareholder's recent share purchases, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [4]. Company Overview - Total shares outstanding: 992,438.02 million - Total market capitalization: HKD 3,112.29 billion - Debt-to-asset ratio: 49.08% - Net asset value per share: HKD 11.92 - 12-month price range: HKD 34.90 (high) / HKD 10.96 (low) [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of HKD 1169.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and a net profit of HKD 193.7 billion, up 23% year-on-year [4]. - The third quarter alone saw revenue of HKD 387 billion, with a net profit of HKD 69 billion, reflecting an 18% increase year-on-year [4]. - The company expects to achieve net profits of HKD 248.03 billion, HKD 258.1 billion, and HKD 279.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a growth trajectory of 10.9%, 4.1%, and 8.3% [5]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a favorable outlook for aluminum prices, with expectations of a balanced supply-demand scenario globally, which is likely to support price increases [4]. - The average aluminum price in China has risen to HKD 21,407 per ton, a 3.4% increase from the previous quarter [4]. - The company is set to benefit from the commissioning of the Simandou iron ore project, which is expected to enhance its earnings further [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report adjusts the aluminum price assumptions for 2025-2027 to HKD 20,600, HKD 21,000, and HKD 21,300 per ton, respectively, while lowering the alumina price assumptions [5]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are HKD 2.25, HKD 2.50, and HKD 2.60, respectively [5].

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) has seen its stock price rise over 4%, reaching a new historical high of 28.96 HKD, driven by positive market sentiment and forecasts regarding aluminum supply and demand dynamics [1] Industry Summary - According to Huatai Securities, the global primary aluminum supply-demand gap is projected to be -59.1 million tons in 2025 and -84.3 million tons in 2026, indicating a tightening market. It is expected that the LME aluminum price may exceed 3200 USD/ton by 2026 [1] - The domestic supply constraints are expected to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, leading to a significant narrowing of the price difference between domestic and international aluminum prices, with domestic prices likely to perform more strongly [1] Company Summary - Tianfeng Securities notes that the tightening supply-demand landscape is significantly improving the profitability of the electrolytic aluminum industry, with high profits expected to continue. This improvement in profitability is also reflected in the performance of electrolytic aluminum companies [1] - With the limitation on domestic supply, the peak of capital expenditure for electrolytic aluminum companies has passed. Leading companies like China Hongqiao are gradually implementing stable dividend policies, and there is a noticeable trend of increasing dividends across the electrolytic aluminum sector this year [1] - The current electrolytic aluminum stocks are transitioning from traditional cyclical commodities to high-quality, scarce assets characterized by price elasticity and dividend support [1]

Group 1: Company Overview - China Hongqiao (01378) is a leading integrated electrolytic aluminum producer with significant advantages in resource layout and high self-sufficiency in alumina and electricity [1] - The company has a prominent cost advantage due to the low price of thermal coal and a decreasing dependence on imported bauxite [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company expects a 35% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, projecting approximately 135.1 billion RMB compared to 100.1 billion RMB in the first half of 2024 [2] - The increase in profit is attributed to higher sales prices and volumes of alloy and alumina products, along with reduced electricity costs due to falling thermal coal prices [2] Group 3: Cost Structure - As of June 24, 2025, the average price of thermal coal has decreased by 22% year-on-year, leading to a reduction in self-generated electricity costs and electrolytic aluminum production costs [3] - The company's self-generated electricity rate is 46%, and the ongoing decline in coal prices is expected to further enhance its cost advantages [3] Group 4: Dividend Policy - The company declared a final dividend of 0.102 HKD per share for 2024, with a total annual dividend of 0.161 HKD per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of approximately 63% and a dividend yield of about 11% [4] - The company has consistently paid dividends since its listing in 2011, with a stable payout ratio above 47% over the past five years, indicating strong long-term investment value [4] Group 5: Market Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is nearing its limit, while overseas supply growth is slow, leading to a constrained supply outlook [5] - Demand from the electric vehicle and power sectors is expected to offset the decline in real estate demand, resulting in a favorable long-term supply-demand balance for electrolytic aluminum [5]