1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market is expected to recover as concerns about high capital expenditure and profit sustainability of technology stocks intensify. If the earnings reports show an extended AI investment return cycle or lower - than - expected profits, it may trigger further volatility in technology stocks, leading to a decline in global risk appetite. As a result, funds may shift to safe - haven assets like Treasury bonds, increasing the allocation demand for Treasury bond futures. In the long - term, the bond market trend will depend on the sustainability of economic recovery, the actual strength of fiscal policies, and the future direction of monetary policies. If subsequent economic data (such as inflation) continues to pick up and more regions are able to expand their balance sheets after debt resolution, the possibility of interest rates rising after reaching a bottom will increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints - The Treasury bond futures market showed an overall upward - trending and volatile pattern last week, with major - term contracts generally closing higher. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures performed the strongest, with the main contract rising 0.46% to 112.570 yuan; the 10 - year main contract rose 0.16%; the 5 - year and 2 - year main contracts rose 0.08% and 0.06% respectively. The spot bond market also strengthened, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield dropping to 1.8% and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield to 2.222%. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield fell 9BP from its high, and the 30 - year active bond yield fell 11BP. Market volatility decreased significantly, contrasting sharply with the large fluctuations in other asset classes. The bond market's strength was mainly driven by three factors: liquidity support, a decline in risk appetite, and market sentiment repair [4]. 3.2 Liquidity Tracking The report presents multiple charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (money injection, money withdrawal, and net money injection), medium - term lending facilities (amount and price), reverse - repurchase rates, deposit - based pledged repurchase rates, SHIBOR, Shanghai Stock Exchange pledged repurchase rates, bond - pledged repurchase rates, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates, excess reserve ratios, LPR, deposit reserve ratios, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads, but no specific analysis or conclusions are provided in the given text [10][11][13]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking The report provides charts of various Treasury bond futures arbitrage indicators, including basis, net basis, implied repo rate (IRR), and implied interest rate for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, but no specific analysis is given [42][48][56].

2025 年 11 月 17 日 风险偏好回落 铝价高位调整 核心观点及策略 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 1 / 7 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面，上周美联储官员鹰派发言一度压制美 联储间隙预期，不过就业数据较弱，后续降息预期仍 有变动。美国政府即将开门，前期暂停的经济数据密 集公布，市场宏观波动放大。基本面国内供应端开工 产能稳定，铝水比例回落，铸锭量提高。海外由于电 力紧张，未来供应端担忧持续笼罩。消费端上周铝加 工开工率小幅回升0.4%至62%，电力及汽车板块消费 较有韧性。不过旺淡季切换下开工率难持续回升。周 度铝 ...