Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Aluminum prices show signs of weakness at high levels, with spot discounts widening and social inventories continuously increasing. Downstream demand enters the off - season, and there is a need for price correction in the short term, while long - term macro factors still support price increases [6] - Alumina spot prices are still falling, with the futures market in a premium state. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains high, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged, with social inventories increasing [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,030 yuan/ton, with a change of - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,940 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 20 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton [1] - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,070 yuan/ton, with a change of - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium changes - 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On January 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,460 yuan/ton, closed at 24,215 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 24,570 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 24,095 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 510,890 lots, and the positions were 322,087 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of January 26, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 777,000 tons, a change of 34,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory is 141,725 tons, a change of 573 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory is 505,275 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On January 26, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan is 2,640 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina is 308 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On January 26, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,725 yuan/ton, closed at 2,732 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of 0.37%, a maximum price of 2,745 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,703 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 590,668 lots, and the positions were 488,440 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 26, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 17,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum is 18,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 23,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 67,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 65,100 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 426 yuan/ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Report's Core Viewpoints - In 2026, Shanghai aluminum prices are at a relatively high level, and the high - profit situation is unsustainable. The market will shift from a tight - balance state to a substantial surplus, and the industry profit will return to a reasonable level. Investors should be cautious and wait for important nodes. [4][45] - The long - term bull market in the Shanghai aluminum market since 2015 is facing the key test of the economic cycle transformation, and 2026 is likely to be an important turning point, with high prices and high volatility as its core characteristics. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - From a long - term perspective, 2026 may be an important node in this round of the aluminum price bull market, and there is a risk of a large - scale bear market. In 2025, Shanghai aluminum showed a steady upward trend in shock, breaking through the previous high, but the price is under pressure. [8] - In 2025, the price trend of Shanghai aluminum can be divided into three stages: from January to mid - March, it oscillated upward; from mid - March to early April, it had a deep correction; from early April to December, it oscillated upward again and hit a new high. [9][10][11] 2. Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - side - Globally, the supply of primary aluminum continued in a tight - balance pattern in 2025, with the supply growth rate slowing down. The main constraint was China's strict production capacity ceiling policy, and overseas markets also faced multiple challenges. [15] - In China, policies strictly controlled production capacity, and supply lacked elasticity. The development of the scrap aluminum and recycled aluminum markets was incomplete, and the primary aluminum supply remained rigid. [17] - China's net import of electrolytic aluminum continued, with Russian aluminum dominating the import pattern. In the future, the growth rate of the net import scale may decline marginally. [20] Demand - side - Traditional construction consumption industries were under pressure. The real estate industry had a negative impact on the demand for aluminum in construction, and the demand proportion was decreasing year by year. [24] - Emerging fields still had resilience. The transportation field, especially new - energy - related areas, became the main growth point of aluminum demand, and the aluminum consumption scale in transportation was expected to exceed that in traditional construction in the future. [25] 3. Inventory Analysis - As of the end of December 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory was at a relatively low level, providing support for aluminum prices. The inventory might face a transformation between accumulation and depletion, and was affected by seasonal factors and supply - demand fundamentals. [31][33] - In 2025, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated complexly, experiencing seasonal accumulation in the first quarter, continuous depletion in the second quarter, re - accumulation in the third quarter, and high - level oscillation in the fourth quarter. [32] 4. Cost - Profit Analysis - In 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry maintained high profits, but many factors supporting high profits were unsustainable. As the market shifted to a substantial surplus and inventory accumulated, the high profits would be squeezed out through price decline and cost collapse. [36] 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum market is expected to shift from a tight - balance state from 2021 - 2023 to a small - scale surplus pattern after 2024, and the surplus will expand. The total consumption growth rate will show a downward trend, and the core contradiction in the future market will be the balance between the rigid growth of supply and the slow - down of demand growth under structural transformation. [40] 6. Summary and Outlook 2025 Shanghai Aluminum Market Summary - In 2025, the Shanghai aluminum market showed strong resilience. The price fluctuated widely in the range of 19,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton, with a lower volatility than in 2024. [44] - The supply rigidity increased, the demand was structurally differentiated, the low - inventory state was normalized, and the cost center moved down but remained at a relatively high level. [44] 2026 Shanghai Aluminum Market Outlook - In 2026, the high price and high profit of Shanghai aluminum are unsustainable. The market will turn to a substantial surplus, and the price will face challenges. [45] - The price will be under pressure from inventory accumulation and cost collapse. It is recommended that investors be cautious, avoid chasing high prices, and pay close attention to inventory turning points and cost - line verification. [46]