Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The medium - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is oscillating strongly. Before mid - March, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations. The market may run strongly due to restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply, but geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, changes in the Fed's interest policy expectations, and tariff fluctuations are important factors disturbing the market. The low - end price of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500, and the high - end around 24,000 - 25,000. The price of aluminum ingots after the Spring Festival in 2026 shows a trend of bottoming out, digesting, and then oscillating and recovering. In the short term, it is weakly affected by high inventory, and in the medium term, it will gradually strengthen with the full resumption of work of downstream industries and the start of the traditional peak season, mainly with range - based recovery and no significant unilateral market. [4][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall View - **Bauxite market**: It shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With the increase in shipping volume since January, the inventory at major Chinese ports is expected to gradually increase in mid - to late February. The cost of transporting bauxite from Guinean mines to ports varies greatly. Large mines have strong cost - resistance, while some small - and medium - sized inland mines are under cost pressure but have not significantly reduced production. The Guinean government's quota system policy, if introduced, may significantly affect supply, but there is no official confirmation yet. [9] - **Alumina market**: As of February 13, the domestic alumina production capacity is about 112.55 million tons, the operating capacity is about 93.3 million tons (93.6 million tons last week), and the operating rate is 83.46%. The operating capacity has slightly declined from the high level since October 2025 but is still at a high level in recent years. [9] - **Electrolytic aluminum production**: In January, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity was about 46.1865 million tons, and the output was 44.7793 million tons. The production capacity has plateaued, but the output has slightly increased. In 2026, the domestic supply is under rigid constraints. Although the high aluminum price has promoted an increase in overseas marginal production, the new energy investment of electrolytic aluminum plants in Europe and the US is severely restricted by carbon taxes and high electricity prices, and new projects in countries like India and Indonesia are progressing slowly due to power supply issues. The global aluminum supply elasticity in 2026 is expected to be very small. [9] - **Electrolytic aluminum import and export**: The theoretical import loss of electrolytic aluminum is about 2,400 yuan/ton (about 2,000 yuan/ton last week), at a low level in recent years. In 2026, China's aluminum profile exports are expected to show a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthroughs, but increasing external barriers". Although the overall growth rate may slow down, the export structure in high - value - added fields such as new energy and transportation lightweighting continues to optimize. [9] - **Electrolytic aluminum inventory**: As of February 12, the social inventory of aluminum was about 914,000 tons, and on February 19, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants was about 191,000 tons, both near the same - period high since 2024. On the 12th, the social inventory of aluminum rods was 309,000 tons, at a high level in the past 10 years. However, the inventory accumulation is expected to reach an inflection point between February 24 - 26. The LME aluminum inventory is about 475,600 tons, which has slightly declined since 2025 and is at a low level in recent years. [9] - **Alumina profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month is about 2,680 yuan/ton, the theoretical spot profit is about - 50 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit of the futures main - contract month is about 160 yuan/ton. [10] - **Electrolytic aluminum profit**: The current average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 6,600 yuan/ton (6,500 yuan/ton last week), at a high level in history. [10] 2. Mid - line Market Analysis - **Trend judgment**: The medium - term trend is oscillating strongly, and before mid - March, it may experience high - level wide - range oscillations. The market may run strongly due to restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply. [4] - **Trend judgment logic**: The start of restocking in March, peak - season demand, and tight supply will drive the market to run strongly. However, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, changes in the Fed's interest policy expectations, and tariff fluctuations are important factors disturbing the market. [4] - **Mid - line strategy suggestion**: Keep an appropriate inventory. [4] 3. Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: Continue to hold medium - term long positions, and new long positions can be appropriately established below 23,000. [7] - **This week's strategy suggestion**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory, and for spot enterprises, consider light - position long positions or clear positions for the holiday. [7] 4. Supply and Demand Situation - The full - cost of the domestic alumina industry in the past month is about 2,680 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 50 yuan/ton, a theoretical profit of the futures main - contract of about 160 yuan/ton, and a theoretical import profit of about - 50 yuan/ton (the same as last week). The production cost of electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton (the same as last week), the theoretical profit is about 6,600 yuan/ton (about 6,500 yuan/ton last week), and the theoretical import loss is about 2,400 yuan/ton (about 2,000 yuan/ton last week). [12] 5. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,540 yuan/ton, compared with - 2,520 yuan/ton before the holiday. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloy is at a relatively low level in recent years, and it has a neutral - to - supportive impact on electrolytic aluminum. [21][23] 6. Market Capital Situation - The net long position of LME aluminum has slightly narrowed recently but is still at a high level since 2018. In the latest period, the net long position of funds has continued to decline slightly. Since late January, long - position holders have slightly reduced their positions at high levels, while short - position holders have slightly increased their positions. Currently, long - position holders have heavy floating - profit positions, which may lead to repeated high - level market conditions. [25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Aluminum prices show signs of weakness at high levels, with spot discounts widening and social inventories continuously increasing. Downstream demand enters the off - season, and there is a need for price correction in the short term, while long - term macro factors still support price increases [6] - Alumina spot prices are still falling, with the futures market in a premium state. The cost support is weak, the supply pressure remains high, and the surplus pattern remains unchanged, with social inventories increasing [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,030 yuan/ton, with a change of - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, a change of - 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,940 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 20 yuan/ton to - 250 yuan/ton [1] - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,070 yuan/ton, with a change of - 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium changes - 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum Futures - On January 26, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,460 yuan/ton, closed at 24,215 yuan/ton, a change of 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a maximum price of 24,570 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 24,095 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 510,890 lots, and the positions were 322,087 lots [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of January 26, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 777,000 tons, a change of 34,000 tons from the previous period; the warehouse receipt inventory is 141,725 tons, a change of 573 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory is 505,275 tons, a change of - 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Alumina Spot Price - On January 26, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi is 2,610 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 2,555 yuan/ton, in Henan is 2,640 yuan/ton, in Guangxi is 2,685 yuan/ton, in Guizhou is 2,740 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina is 308 US dollars/ton [2] Alumina Futures - On January 26, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,725 yuan/ton, closed at 2,732 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of 0.37%, a maximum price of 2,745 yuan/ton and a minimum price of 2,703 yuan/ton. The trading volume for the day was 590,668 lots, and the positions were 488,440 lots [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 26, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum is 17,900 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum is 18,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 is 23,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 67,000 tons, and the in - factory inventory is 65,100 tons [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 22,874 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is 426 yuan/ton [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is currently dominated by bearish factors. Supply is abundant while demand lacks highlights, leading to a continuous decline in spot prices. It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will maintain a weak and stable-to-declining oscillatory pattern next week [4]. - There is a high probability that the price of aluminum oxide will decline. The market supply is increasing with the outflow of expired warehouse receipts from Xinjiang, and the demand side has a high inventory level, reducing the need for further large - scale spot purchases [17]. Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - **Supply**: The supply pressure of the chlor - alkali industry remains. The operating rate of chlor - alkali plants is high, with the national sample enterprise operating load rate at 89.84% and a weekly output of 869,500 tons. Maintenance losses are decreasing, and there will be no large - scale maintenance except for a few enterprises in the future, indicating sufficient supply [4]. - **Demand**: Demand is weak, and downstream support has weakened. The operating capacity of the core downstream aluminum oxide industry has dropped to 81.37%, and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has slightly decreased. Downstream and traders are not very enthusiastic about purchasing, mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude and making purchases based on rigid demand [4]. - **Inventory**: Inventory performance varies. In Shandong, inventory decreased by 18.12% due to price - for - volume strategies, but in East China, the overall inventory increased by 2.83%, showing inventory accumulation pressure in some regions [4]. - **Profit**: Profits have shrunk significantly. Affected by the decline in liquid caustic soda prices, the ECU profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has decreased significantly. In Shandong, the profit of enterprises with self - owned power plants decreased by 25.90% month - on - month, and the loss of enterprises without self - owned power plants widened to 146.97 yuan per ton [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Caustic soda shows a weak trend; Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being; Options: Wait and see for the time being [5]. Core Logic Analysis - **Aluminum Oxide in Shandong**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large - scale aluminum oxide plants in Shandong is at a high level, and the price continues to decline. From November 14 to December 5, the purchase price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda by major aluminum oxide plants in Shandong was continuously reduced [7][9]. - **Aluminum Oxide Production and Market**: The overall operation of national aluminum oxide enterprises is relatively stable. As of Friday, the national built - in capacity of aluminum oxide is 114.62 million tons, with an operating capacity of 95.90 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.6%. The inventory of aluminum oxide at the electrolytic aluminum enterprise end continues to rise, and the market supply is increasing. It is expected that the price of aluminum oxide will decline rapidly next week [17]. - **Caustic Soda Operation**: From December 5 - 11, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. The load in North China and East China increased slightly, while that in Southwest and Central China decreased [19]. Weekly Data Tracking - **Price**: The report provides price trend charts of caustic soda futures, 32% liquid caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, flake caustic soda, as well as charts of caustic soda variety spreads, regional spreads, and profit [22][25][28][30][32][35][38]. - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the warehouse inventory of national fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 457,100 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 9.46% and a year - on - year increase of 50.1%. The inventory performance varies by region [13]. - **Output**: Tianjin Bohua's 300,000 - ton caustic soda plant has been put into operation, and Gansu Yaowang Chemical Co., Ltd.'s 300,000 - ton caustic soda project has also been successfully put into operation, with a current daily output of 600 - 700 wet tons of 32% liquid caustic soda. The total additional capacity in 2025 is expected to be 2.1 million tons [52][53]. - **Plant Maintenance**: The report lists the maintenance situations of caustic soda plants in different regions, including the enterprise names, caustic soda capacities, and maintenance schedules [55]. - **Consumption**: The report provides charts of caustic soda demand, weekly consumption (including exports), and consumption of different types of caustic soda [57][58]. - **Aluminum Oxide Production Capacity**: There will be a large number of new aluminum oxide production capacity projects put into operation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, especially in Guangxi. The new capacity will drive the demand for 50% and flake caustic soda in Shandong and other places [65][66]. - **Viscose Staple Fiber**: From September 12 - 18, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 89.52%, a week - on - week increase of 1.75% [67]. - **Printing and Dyeing Industry**: As of September 18, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 65.76%, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The operating rates in different regions showed different trends, and the industry was generally stable with a strong wait - and - see sentiment [71]. - **Caustic Soda Export**: The report provides charts of caustic soda export volume, export price, export profit, and export destinations. In 2025, there is an estimated 4.5 million tons of new overseas aluminum oxide production capacity to be put into operation, and most of the new aluminum oxide plants in Indonesia have been put into operation, with caustic soda stockpiling completed [73][74][82].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquid caustic soda market is in a pattern of increasing supply, weak demand, inventory accumulation, and profit contraction, with a short - term bearish trend. It is expected that the prices of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda will maintain a weak operation with a stable - to - decreasing trend next week [4]. - The alumina market continues to operate weakly and steadily, and it is expected that the spot price of alumina will still fluctuate narrowly next week, and the subsequent overall downward pressure trend is expected to continue [17]. - The caustic soda industry has a slight increase in start - up, and the unilateral trend of caustic soda is weak. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [5][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy Comprehensive Analysis - Supply: Although some caustic soda plants are under maintenance, the overall industry operating load rate has increased to 90.29%, and the caustic soda output has increased by 0.55% week - on - week to 871,000 tons, with the supply pressure slightly increasing [4]. - Demand: The support from the demand side is limited. Although the operating rate of the alumina production capacity of the main downstream has rebounded to 76.76%, the non - aluminum downstream's enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, and the viscose staple fiber industry's losses have intensified, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment [4]. - Inventory: There is a significant inventory accumulation. The inventory of 32% liquid caustic soda plants in Shandong has increased by 13.39% week - on - week, and the inventory of sample enterprises in East China has soared by 25.78%, increasing the manufacturers' shipping pressure [4]. - Profit: The profits have been significantly reduced. Affected by the double decline in the prices of liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine, the profitability of chlor - alkali enterprises has deteriorated. Enterprises without self - owned power plants in Shandong have turned from profit to loss, and the profits of enterprises with self - owned power plants have also dropped by 28.83% [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: The caustic soda trend is weak [5]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see for the time being [5]. - Options: Wait and see for the time being [5]. 2. Core Logic Analysis - In Shandong, the delivery volume of liquid caustic soda from large alumina manufacturers has increased, and the price has decreased. The price of 32% ion - exchange membrane caustic soda purchased by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has been successively reduced, and the current delivery volume has significantly rebounded to 13,368 tons [7][9]. - The factory inventory has increased by 6.3% week - on - week. As of November 20, 2025, the inventory of sample enterprises of fixed liquid caustic soda with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in the country has increased by 6.32% week - on - week and 80.65% year - on - year. Inventories in various regions are generally on the rise [10][13]. - Alumina continues to operate weakly and steadily. The national alumina operating level has fluctuated slightly this week, and it is expected to return to normal next week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises has increased, and the demand for spot purchases has decreased. It is expected that the spot price of alumina will still fluctuate narrowly next week [17]. - The caustic soda start - up has slightly increased. This week, the average utilization rate of the capacity of sample caustic soda enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China has increased by 0.5% week - on - week. The load in North China and Northeast China has increased, while the start - up in East China, Central China, and Southwest China has declined due to plant maintenance and production reduction [19]. 3. Weekly Data Tracking Price Data - Caustic soda futures price: Including the price trend, basis, position, and warehouse receipt volume of the SH01 contract, as well as the price difference between the 1 - 5 months [23]. - 32% liquid caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang [26]. - 50% caustic soda spot price: The price trends of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong [29]. - Flake caustic soda spot price: The price trends of flake caustic soda in Shandong, Southwest, Northwest, Guangdong, and Guangxi [31]. - Caustic soda variety price difference: The price differences between flake caustic soda and 50% caustic soda, 32% caustic soda in Shandong, and the price differences between different varieties in Jiangsu and Guangdong [33]. - Caustic soda regional price difference: The price differences of 32% and 50% caustic soda between Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Guangdong, as well as the price differences of flake caustic soda between different regions [36]. - Caustic soda profit: The profit trends of caustic soda and chlor - alkali in Shandong and Jiangsu, as well as the price trends of liquid chlorine [39]. Inventory Data - Caustic soda inventory: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda and flake caustic soda in factories and the market [41][42]. - Caustic soda inventory by province: The inventory trends of liquid caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu [45]. Production and Start - up Data - Caustic soda start - up: The start - up trends of caustic soda and solid caustic soda, as well as the output trends [48]. - Caustic soda production by province: The production trends of caustic soda in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang [50]. - Newly - added caustic soda capacity: A total of 2.1 million tons of newly - added caustic soda capacity is expected to be put into production in 2025 [52]. - Caustic soda plant maintenance: The maintenance situations of caustic soda plants in different regions [54]. Consumption and Related Market Data - Caustic soda consumption: The demand and weekly consumption trends of caustic soda, liquid caustic soda, and flake caustic soda [56][57]. - Alumina operating capacity: The production, operating capacity, and start - up trends of alumina [60][61]. - Newly - added alumina capacity: A total of 10.8 million tons of newly - added alumina capacity is expected to be put into production in 2025, and 12 million tons in 2026 [65]. - Viscose staple fiber: The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry this week has increased by 1.75% week - on - week [66]. - Printing and dyeing start - up: The start - up rates of printing and dyeing enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are generally stable, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the industry [70]. - Caustic soda export: The export volume, FOB price, and export profit trends of caustic soda [72][73]. - Caustic soda export destinations: The export volumes of caustic soda to Australia, Indonesia, Taiwan, and Vietnam [76][77][78][79]. - Overseas alumina newly - added capacity: It is estimated that 4.5 million tons of newly - added alumina capacity will be put into production overseas in 2025, and most of the new alumina plants in Indonesia have been put into production, and the caustic soda stockpiling has been completed [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquid caustic soda market is in a weak balance, with short - term weak trends mainly. The supply in the Shandong liquid caustic soda market is continuously abundant, the export market lacks substantial boost, and the demand from alumina enterprises is in a stalemate. The caustic soda market shows an oscillating and weakening trend [4][5]. - The alumina market is gradually entering a stalemate in the short - term, with a supply surplus situation remaining unchanged, and prices are expected to still have a large probability of falling [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply - demand situation**: The supply of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market is abundant, and the export market lacks substantial boost. The demand from alumina enterprises is in a stalemate, with many news of potential production cuts from the end of the last month. The liquid chlorine price remains in the profit range [4]. - **Trading strategies**: For unilateral trading, the caustic soda market shows an oscillating and weakening trend; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina market**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong has increased, and the price has slightly decreased. As of November 6, 2025, the inventory of alumina plants has continued to rise. The alumina market is in a stalemate, and prices are expected to fall [7][9][17]. - **Caustic soda market**: The caustic soda inventory has decreased, with a 6.29% week - on - week decrease in the factory inventory of 200,000 - ton and above fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises. The caustic soda production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, with an average of 84.8% for 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China from October 31 to November 6, 2025, a 0.5% increase from the previous week [10][13][19]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price data**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda purchased by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has decreased. The caustic soda futures price, 32% liquid caustic soda spot price, 50% caustic soda spot price, and flake caustic soda spot price are presented in the form of charts [9][25][27]. - **Inventory data**: The factory inventory of caustic soda has decreased, and the inventory in different regions shows different trends. The inventory of flake caustic soda is also presented in the form of charts [10][13][42]. - **Production capacity and production data**: The alumina production capacity has increased, with the national alumina operating capacity reaching 96.85 million tons as of this Friday, a 100,000 - ton increase from last week. The caustic soda production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, and new caustic soda production capacity has been put into operation [17][19][52]. - **Device maintenance data**: Multiple caustic soda plants have carried out or planned maintenance, affecting the local production capacity [55]. - **Consumption data**: The consumption of caustic soda is presented in the form of charts, including total consumption, liquid caustic soda consumption, and flake caustic soda consumption [57]. - **Export data**: The export of caustic soda is presented in the form of charts. In 2025, overseas alumina new production capacity is expected to reach 4.5 million tons, and the preparation of caustic soda in Indonesia has been completed [73][82].