烧碱周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 供给端压力仍存，氯碱装置运行维持高位，全国样本企业开工负荷率为89.84%，周产量86.95万吨。检修损失量减少，且后续除个 别企业外无大规模检修，供应充足。需求端表现疲软，下游支撑减弱。核心下游氧化铝运行产能回落至81.37%，粘胶短纤开工率微 降。整体需求不温不火，下游及贸易商接货积极性不高，多持观望心态，刚需采购为主。库存表现不一。山东地区因以价换量库存下 降18.12%，但华东地区整体库存增加了2.83%，累库压力在部分区域显现。利润大幅缩水，受液碱价格下跌影响，氯碱企业ECU盈 利显著下滑。山东有自备电厂企业盈利环比减少25.90%，无自备电厂企业亏损扩大至146.97元/吨。当前市场利空因素主导。供应 端充裕而需求端缺乏亮点，加之市场看空情绪较浓，导致现货价格持 ...

烧碱周报 研究员：李轩怡 期货从业证号：F03108920 投资咨询资格证号：Z0018403 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第二章 | 周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 液碱市场供需处于供增需弱、累库施压、利润收缩的格局，短期走势偏空。供给端虽然部分装置检修，但行业整体开工负荷率提升至90.29%，烧碱产量环 比增加0.55%至87.10万吨，供应压力未减反而微增。需求端支撑有限。尽管主力下游氧化铝产能运行率回升至76.76%，刚需尚在，但非铝下游接货积极 性不高，且粘胶短纤行业亏损加剧，市场观望情绪浓厚，整体需求表现平淡。 库存端累库明显。山东32%液碱工厂库存环比大增13.39%，华东样本企业 库存更是激增25.78%，厂家出货压力加大。利润端大幅缩减。受液碱和液氯价格双降影响，氯碱企业盈利恶化。山东无自备电厂企业ECU由盈转亏，有自 备电厂企业盈利也大幅下滑28.83%。鉴于供应充足且库存持续累积，加上下游买涨不买跌的谨慎心态，市场缺 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The liquid caustic soda market is in a weak balance, with short - term weak trends mainly. The supply in the Shandong liquid caustic soda market is continuously abundant, the export market lacks substantial boost, and the demand from alumina enterprises is in a stalemate. The caustic soda market shows an oscillating and weakening trend [4][5]. - The alumina market is gradually entering a stalemate in the short - term, with a supply surplus situation remaining unchanged, and prices are expected to still have a large probability of falling [17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Supply - demand situation**: The supply of the Shandong liquid caustic soda market is abundant, and the export market lacks substantial boost. The demand from alumina enterprises is in a stalemate, with many news of potential production cuts from the end of the last month. The liquid chlorine price remains in the profit range [4]. - **Trading strategies**: For unilateral trading, the caustic soda market shows an oscillating and weakening trend; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis - **Alumina market**: The delivery volume of liquid caustic soda to large alumina plants in Shandong has increased, and the price has slightly decreased. As of November 6, 2025, the inventory of alumina plants has continued to rise. The alumina market is in a stalemate, and prices are expected to fall [7][9][17]. - **Caustic soda market**: The caustic soda inventory has decreased, with a 6.29% week - on - week decrease in the factory inventory of 200,000 - ton and above fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises. The caustic soda production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, with an average of 84.8% for 200,000 - ton and above caustic soda sample enterprises in China from October 31 to November 6, 2025, a 0.5% increase from the previous week [10][13][19]. 3.3 Weekly Data Tracking - **Price data**: The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda purchased by major alumina manufacturers in Shandong has decreased. The caustic soda futures price, 32% liquid caustic soda spot price, 50% caustic soda spot price, and flake caustic soda spot price are presented in the form of charts [9][25][27]. - **Inventory data**: The factory inventory of caustic soda has decreased, and the inventory in different regions shows different trends. The inventory of flake caustic soda is also presented in the form of charts [10][13][42]. - **Production capacity and production data**: The alumina production capacity has increased, with the national alumina operating capacity reaching 96.85 million tons as of this Friday, a 100,000 - ton increase from last week. The caustic soda production capacity utilization rate has slightly increased, and new caustic soda production capacity has been put into operation [17][19][52]. - **Device maintenance data**: Multiple caustic soda plants have carried out or planned maintenance, affecting the local production capacity [55]. - **Consumption data**: The consumption of caustic soda is presented in the form of charts, including total consumption, liquid caustic soda consumption, and flake caustic soda consumption [57]. - **Export data**: The export of caustic soda is presented in the form of charts. In 2025, overseas alumina new production capacity is expected to reach 4.5 million tons, and the preparation of caustic soda in Indonesia has been completed [73][82].