1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of cast aluminum alloy continued to be strong, reaching a record - high of 21,390 yuan/ton. Considering the high price of scrap aluminum, stable demand, and cost - rising factors, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term but remain bullish in the long - term. As of November 14, the combined inventory of ingot factories and social warehouses decreased by 0.16 tons to 131,100 tons, but the inventory is still at a high level. Although the retail sales of passenger cars from November 1 - 9 decreased compared to the same period last year and last month, due to the approaching expiration of the vehicle purchase tax concession policy at the end of the year, consumer enthusiasm for buying cars is expected to remain high, which may improve car sales [6]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog Transaction - end: Volume and Price - The short - term refined - scrap price difference has rebounded, and the short - term price difference between ADC12 and A00 has weakened [2][4]. Transaction - end: Arbitrage Inter - period Positive Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The cost of cast aluminum alloy inter - period positive arbitrage is calculated. Taking the AD2512 and AD2601 contracts on November 14, 2025, as an example, the fixed cost is 12.83 yuan/ton, the floating cost is 78.81 yuan/ton, and the total cost is 91.64 yuan/ton [13]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Cost Calculation - The market's actual spot quotation fluctuates around the Baotai price. Taking the latest Baotai Group's quotation of 21,100 yuan/ton as an example, the cost of spot - futures arbitrage is calculated, and the warehouse receipt cost is 21,319 yuan/ton [14][15]. Supply - end: Scrap Aluminum - Scrap aluminum production is at a high level, and social inventory is continuously decreasing. Scrap aluminum imports are also at a high level, with a relatively fast year - on - year growth rate [17][20]. Supply - end: Recycled Aluminum - The price of Baotai ADC12 has been slightly adjusted upwards, and the price difference between recycled and primary aluminum has weakened. The regional price difference of cast aluminum alloy shows certain seasonal patterns. The weekly operating rate of cast aluminum alloy has increased, while the monthly operating rate has decreased. The monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy and its proportion in different regions are presented. The cost of ADC12 is mainly composed of scrap aluminum, and it is currently around the break - even line. The factory inventory of cast aluminum alloy has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The import window of cast aluminum alloy is currently closed. The production and inventory of recycled aluminum rods and their proportion in different regions are also provided [31][42][45][48][53][58][61]. Demand - end: Terminal Consumption - The terminal consumption shows that fuel - powered vehicles are in the year - end sales rush stage, which is transmitted to the die - casting consumption. Data on the production of new energy vehicles, fuel - powered vehicles, motorcycles, and small household appliances, as well as the PPI of auto parts manufacturing and the auto inventory warning index, are presented [67].

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy futures market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to weak demand and seasonal factors, despite tight supply of raw materials [1][2][3] Market Performance - As of July 18, 2025, the main contract for aluminum alloy futures closed at 19,875 CNY/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.53% [1] - The weekly trading range was between 19,700 CNY/ton and 19,950 CNY/ton, indicating a stable yet cautious market environment [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high production costs for aluminum alloy, which supports current price levels [2][3] - However, the automotive industry's "anti-involution" trend and the ongoing off-season have weakened demand, resulting in increased inventory levels for aluminum alloy [2][3] Institutional Insights - Guoxin Futures notes that while raw material prices remain high, the weak demand is expected to suppress aluminum alloy prices, making it challenging to maintain levels above 20,000 CNY/ton [3] - Donghai Futures highlights that the tight supply of scrap aluminum is causing production costs to rise, leading to losses for some recycling aluminum plants, which are now facing a loss of 41 CNY/ton [3] - The overall manufacturing sector is experiencing a lack of growth in orders, further contributing to the weak demand outlook for aluminum alloys [3]