电解铝 期货品种周报 2025.11.24-11.28 偏强震荡。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 中期而言，参考WIND相关数据，考虑国内供给增速收到产能天花板约束，同 时海外新增产能及欧美复产进度均较为缓慢，2026年全球供应端同比增速或 有所放缓，而需求在全球制造业复苏背景下有望维持韧性，预计2026年全球 原铝供应缺口较2025年有所扩大，中期供需格局仍偏强。不过就近期而言， 参考2000年来沪铝对22000元/吨一线上方的探索，基本伴随着供应端的巨大 扰动，年底几内亚供应预计持稳，国内铝土矿及氧化铝库存宽裕，需求端韧 性十足，但暂未见明显新需求增量，11月下旬铝价或有所反复。 2 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 近期或出现高位反复，短线多单可以考虑适当减持或者离场 避险。 未来一周主力2601合约看21000-21700区间。 本周策略建议 正常持有库存。 现货企业套期保值建议 轻仓持多待涨。 3 中线策略建议 中线行情分析 【总体观点】 | | 2025年11月第3周 | | --- | --- | | 铝土矿市场 | 市场参与者普遍对年末几内亚供应端发运增加存在预期，另外，根据钢联数据，今年铝土矿 ...

Core Viewpoint - 招银国际 maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) and significantly raises its target price from HKD 27 to HKD 39, citing improved supply-demand dynamics, robust end-user demand, and stable costs as key factors for market re-evaluation [1][2] Industry Summary - China accounts for approximately 60% of global aluminum supply, with production capacity capped at around 45 million tons since the supply-side reform in 2017. As of September 2025, industry capacity utilization reached a ten-year high of 99%, remaining at 98.6% in October. Additionally, new overseas capacity, such as in Indonesia, is progressing slowly, leading to limited global supply growth in the next 3-6 months [1] - End-user demand in sectors like electric vehicles, power equipment, and electronics remains resilient, supporting an increase in aluminum prices. Global aluminum demand is projected to grow by 2.1% and 1.7% in the fiscal years 2025 and 2026, respectively, while supply is expected to grow only by 1.7% and 1.3%, shifting the market from a supply surplus in FY 2025 to a supply shortage in FY 2026 [1] Company Summary - Based on a more optimistic outlook for aluminum prices, 招银 has raised its profit forecasts for China Hongqiao for 2025-2027 by 4-5%. The company is estimated to see a 3% profit increase for every 1% rise in aluminum prices, while a 1% decrease in coal prices could boost profits by 0.4%. The report highlights the company's strong free cash flow, which is expected to support a 60% dividend payout ratio, with a near net cash balance sheet structure anticipated by the end of 2026. The current stock price corresponds to an attractive dividend yield of approximately 6% [2] - Over the past decade, China Hongqiao's forward P/E ratio has frequently peaked at 10 times. Although the expected P/E ratio for 2026 is around 10 times, 招银 believes there is still upside potential for the stock price due to favorable short-term industry supply-demand dynamics and significant improvements in the balance sheet, with net debt ratio projected to decrease from 24% at the end of 2024 to a near net cash position by the end of 2026 [2]