| | | 本周沪铜主力合约继续呈现高位震荡格局，宏观对于铜价的扰动整体上有所减弱，但地缘冲突继续带来不稳定因素。中国外交部要求在刚 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 果（金）东部地区驻留的中国公民和企业应立即撤离该地区，目前刚果（金）安全形势复杂严峻，对矿区的影响需保持关注。基本面上， | | | | 高位震荡调整 | 近期市场消费有好转势头，市场交易较10月整体有所提升，社会库存近期有所回落。近期市场目光开始向矿长单谈判聚焦，另外自由港麦 | 观望 | | 铜 | 85000-88000 | 克莫兰计划于2026年二季度恢复印尼Grasberg矿区大规模生产，目前已重启两座未受灾害影响的地下矿山，这有望缓解矿端供应的焦虑情 | 或轻仓区间交易 | | | | 绪。铜长期需求前景依然乐观，人工智能、AI算力、绿色能源等行业发展对铜消耗存在高预期，铜价上涨潜力依然较大，但短期需警惕高 | | | | | 铜价对消费的抑制作用以及美联储政策预期变化带来的压力。短期内铜价高位运行的状态不改，沪铜主力运行区间或继续维持在85000- | | | | | 88000一线，建议观望 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall rating of "Bullish Oscillation" for the electrolytic aluminum industry [4][11] Core Viewpoints - Mid - term (2026): The global supply growth rate of primary aluminum is expected to slow down, while demand is likely to remain resilient due to the global manufacturing recovery. The supply gap is expected to widen compared to 2025, indicating a bullish mid - term supply - demand pattern [4] - Short - term (November 2025): The aluminum price may fluctuate. There is no significant new demand increment, and although the demand is resilient, the exploration above 22,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum usually requires major supply disruptions. The supply from Guinea is expected to be stable at the end of the year, and domestic bauxite and alumina inventories are abundant [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall View Supply - Bauxite: The market is in a state of oversupply. Market participants expect an increase in shipments from Guinea at the end of the year, and the cumulative import volume growth rate of bauxite this year is higher than the cumulative production growth rate of alumina [9][12] - Alumina: As of November 21, 2025, the domestic built - in capacity is about 11,255 million tons, the operating capacity is about 9,660 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate is about 85.46%. In 2026, about 1,440 million tons/year of new capacity will be put into production, mainly in the first half of the year in the southwest and northern coastal regions. The supply - demand contradiction is still severe due to high inventory and new capacity [9] - Electrolytic Aluminum: In October 2025, the domestic built - in capacity was about 4,571.65 million tons, and the operating capacity was about 4,455.93 million tons. The domestic smelting profit is high, and the supply is steadily increasing. However, overseas supply may decrease due to power shortages, and the global aluminum supply has entered a low - growth stage [9] Demand - Aluminum Profiles: The weekly industry starting rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 52.6%. The construction profile market sentiment is weak, while the automotive profile orders are expected to last until the end of the year. The procurement of photovoltaic component factories has slowed down, and the starting rate is expected to decline slightly [10] - Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil: The starting rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increased by 0.4 percentage points to 66.0%, but it will continue to decline due to the off - season, uncertain environmental policies, and lack of order support. The starting rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 70.4%, and the demand in traditional consumption areas is weak [10] - Aluminum Cables: The weekly starting rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.4%. Supported by grid orders, it is expected to continue to recover [10] - Alloys: The starting rate of the primary aluminum alloy industry remained stable at 59.8%, showing a stable supply - demand situation. The starting rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises remained stable at 60.6%, and it is expected to remain stable in the short term [10] Inventory - Electrolytic Aluminum: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots is 61.9 million tons, basically stable since November, about 15% higher than the same period last year, and slightly below the mid - axis level since 2023. The in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a low level in recent years, and the outbound volume has decreased significantly since the end of October. The inventory of aluminum rods is 13.62 million tons, about 2% lower than last week and about 31% higher than last year. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by about 1% compared to last week and about 23% compared to last year, remaining at a low level in recent years [10] Profit - Alumina: The average full - cost in the past month was about 2,800 yuan/ton, the spot theoretical profit was about 50 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract theoretical profit was - 70 yuan/ton [11][19] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The current average production cost is about 16,950 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 4,200 yuan/ton (last week it was 4,800 yuan/ton), with a relatively high profit level [11][19] Market Expectation and Outlook - Market Expectation: The strong US dollar and low interest - rate cut expectations at the macro level suppress the aluminum price. The domestic supply is at a high level, the demand has entered the off - season, the inventory support is limited, the capital sentiment is cautious, and the current spot trading is still weak, so the correction may not be over [11] - Outlook: At the end of November, the macro - guidance is slightly weak. The domestic supply is stable, while the demand has further seasonal contraction pressure. The social inventory may slightly increase, and the price is expected to oscillate under pressure. The main 2601 contract is expected to be in the range of 21,000 - 21,700 yuan/ton in the next week [11] 2. Important Industry Link Price Changes - Bauxite: The import price is under pressure. The price of bauxite SI2 - 3% Guinea decreased by 0.69% week - on - week, and the prices of some other types remained stable [12] - Alumina: It has been oscillating downward since mid - August. The price of Henan first - grade alumina decreased by 0.18% week - on - week [12] - Other: Coal prices have been rising since September, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be strong at the end of the year. The prices of some other raw materials such as pre - baked anodes and ice crystals have also changed to varying degrees [12] 3. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - Bauxite: The port inventory of imported bauxite decreased slightly, and it has been fluctuating around the annual high of 2,850 million tons since August. The domestic bauxite inventory is abundant [16] - Alumina: It has been accumulating inventory since the end of May and is currently at a high level in recent years. The inventory of alumina plants and ports decreased slightly this week, while the in - plant inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to accumulate rapidly [16] - Electrolytic Aluminum: The domestic mainstream consumption area inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots remained stable, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased [16] 4. Supply - Demand Situation - The off - season characteristics of the aluminum processing industry are more obvious this week, with significant structural differentiation in the sector. The primary aluminum alloy has stable supply and demand; the starting rate of aluminum cables has slightly increased supported by grid orders; the traditional demand for aluminum plates and strips is weak; the construction profiles are sluggish, and the demand for packaging foil has weakened; the recycled aluminum is still restricted by the tight raw material supply [25] 5. Futures - Spot Structure - The current spot - end price is under pressure, and the Shanghai aluminum futures price structure is moderately weak [30] 6. Spread Structure - The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week is about - 2,040 yuan/ton (pre - holiday was - 1,840 yuan/ton). The current spread of primary aluminum and alloys is at the mid - axis level in recent years and has a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [34][36] 7. Market Fund Situation - LME Aluminum: The net long position of funds is near the high level since April 2022. In the latest period, the net long position increased slightly, and both the long and short camps reduced their positions. Overseas funds still have a positive expectation for the aluminum price [38] - SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum: The net long position of the main force significantly reduced this week, with the long camp reducing positions more than the short camp. The net long position of funds with a financial speculation background continued to reduce positions, and funds with a background of mid - downstream enterprises are in a stalemate between long and short. Overall, the main funds still tend to adjust [41]

11月21日（周五），伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜下滑，预计本周将录得跌幅，因强势美元及喜忧参半的 9月就业数据令投资者在美联储12月利率决议前保持谨慎。 LME三个月期铝下跌0.94%，至每吨2,787.50美元；期锌下跌1.33%，至每吨2,976美元；期铅下跌 1.07%，至每吨1,989美元；期锡下跌0.79%，至每吨36,775美元；期镍下跌0.94%，至每吨14,365美元。 沪铝主力合约下滑1.09%，收报每吨21,340元；沪铅合约下跌0.46%，收报每吨17,165元；沪锌下跌 0.09%，收报每吨22,395元；沪镍下跌1.75%，收报每吨114,050元；沪锡下跌0.93%，收报每吨290,740 元。 （文华综合） 周四因美国政府停摆而推迟公布的9月就业数据向美联储发出了好坏参半的信号，决策者正在考虑12月 份的利率决定，该数据显示新增就业岗位增长强于预期，但失业率升至近四年来的新高。 9月就业数据将是12月利率决议前发布的最后一次官方就业数据。 由于许多美联储官员仍持鹰派态度，美元依然强劲，这对以美元计价的大宗商品造成了压力，使持有其 他货币的投资者认为这些商品更加昂贵。 截至北京时 ...

Core Insights - The main point of the article is that the Shanghai Futures Exchange's primary aluminum futures contract experienced a decline, closing at 21,840.0 yuan per ton, with a notable outflow of funds during the trading session [1] Group 1 - The primary aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell by 0.68% [1] - The closing price for the primary aluminum futures contract was reported at 21,840.0 yuan per ton [1] - There was a significant capital outflow of 625 million yuan during the trading day [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The ongoing government shutdown continues to affect liquidity [2][4]. - Silver: Expected to rebound with oscillations [2][5]. - Copper: Lacks clear drivers, with prices expected to oscillate [2][9]. - Zinc: Expected to trade within a range [2][12]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2][16]. - Tin: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts [2][19]. - Aluminum: Expected to perform strongly [2][23]. - Alumina: Expected to rebound from the bottom [2][23]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Expected to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - Nickel: Constrained by inventory accumulation at the smelting end, supported by uncertainties at the mine end [2][25]. - Stainless steel: Steel prices are expected to oscillate narrowly at a low level [2][25]. 3. Summary by Commodity Gold - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 912.26 with a daily decline of 0.36% and a night - session increase of 0.63% to 916.38; Comex Gold 2512 rose 1.25% to 3990.40 [5]. - **Trend Strength**: Gold trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [7]. Silver - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11276 with a daily increase of 0.33% and a night - session increase of 1.58% to 11381; Comex Silver 2512 rose 2.06% [5]. - **Trend Strength**: Silver trend strength is - 1, indicating a weak - bearish view [7]. Copper - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 85670 with a daily decline of 0.08% and a night - session increase of 0.27% to 85900; LME Copper 3M rose 0.79% to 10733 [9]. - **Industry News**: Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental permits for a new $1.7 billion copper smelter; Indonesia granted Amman Mineral International a 400,000 - ton copper concentrate export quota; Chile's September copper production was 456,663 tons, up 7.79% month - on - month and down 4.5% year - on - year; Glencore plans to close its Canadian smelter and refinery [9][11]. - **Trend Strength**: Copper trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [11]. Zinc - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22650 with a daily decline of 0.09%; LME Zinc 3M closed at 3077.5 with a decline of 0.98% [12]. - **Trend Strength**: Zinc trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Lead - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17475 with a daily increase of 0.34%; LME Lead 3M closed at 2021 with a decline of 0.44% [16]. - **Trend Strength**: Lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Tin - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 282090 with a daily decline of 0.58% and a night - session increase of 0.28% to 282820; LME Tin 3M rose 0.21% to 35745 [19]. - **Trend Strength**: Tin trend strength is 1, indicating a slightly bullish view [22]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 21395, Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2772, and the aluminum alloy main contract closed at 20830 [23]. - **Industry News**: US employment showed signs of stabilization; the US October ISM services PMI rebounded strongly [24]. - **Trend Strength**: Aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy trend strengths are all 0, indicating neutral views [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Performance**: Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 120030, and the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12535 [25]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mine was taken over by the forestry working group; China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia; Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies; Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on China [25][26][27]. - **Trend Strength**: Nickel and stainless - steel trend strengths are both 0, indicating neutral views [27].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's primary aluminum futures contract closed up by 0.35% at 21,295.0 CNY per ton, indicating a positive market movement despite a significant outflow of funds during the trading day [1]. Group 1 - The primary aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a price increase of 0.35% [1] - The closing price for the contract was reported at 21,295.0 CNY per ton [1] - There was a net outflow of funds amounting to 8.33 million CNY during the trading session [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Futures Exchange's main aluminum contract closed up by 0.61% at 21,360.0 CNY per ton, with a daily capital inflow of 211 million CNY [1] Group 1 - The main aluminum contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange experienced a price increase of 0.61% [1] - The closing price for the aluminum contract was reported at 21,360.0 CNY per ton [1] - There was a significant capital inflow of 211 million CNY during the trading day [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After continuous gains, high - flying sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, while sectors such as nuclear fusion, chips, and non - ferrous metals have emerged. Although short - term index fluctuations have increased, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips due to policy support for the capital market [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is likely to remain volatile under the intertwined bull - bear background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. - With the weakening of the US dollar credit and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals. However, there is a significant risk of price correction in the short term [9]. - For most metals, factors such as supply - demand changes, cost fluctuations, and market sentiment affect their prices. For example, copper is supported by supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations; aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong; zinc is expected to be strong in the short term; and nickel may have a short - term downward exploration but is supported in the long term [12][14][16][18]. - For black building materials, although the current real - world demand for steel is weak, the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. The price of iron ore may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [31][33][35]. - For energy and chemical products, rubber is recommended to go long on dips; for crude oil, wait and see in the short term; methanol and urea can be considered for short - term long positions after a decline; and for some chemical products like PVC and ethylene glycol, the supply - demand situation is weak, and short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [53][55][56][58]. - For agricultural products, the prices of live pigs and eggs are expected to be weak in the short term; soybean meal is expected to be weak and volatile; oils are expected to be strong; sugar is recommended to be shorted on rallies; and cotton is likely to be weak in the short term [77][79][82][84][87][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - financial Category Stock Index - **Market News**: The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs have imposed export controls on certain items; some foreign entities have been included in the unreliable entity list; some securities firms have adjusted the margin conversion ratios of certain stocks; and the price of spot gold remains high, with some banks adjusting their related businesses [2]. - **Basis Ratio of Stock Index Futures**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the previous continuous rise, the high - flying sectors have shown divergence, and the short - term index fluctuations have increased. However, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market News**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts have changed; the daily average sales revenue of the national consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays has increased year - on - year; and export controls have been imposed on some medium - heavy rare earth - related items [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 6120 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 14513 billion yuan on the day [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The manufacturing PMI has rebounded, but the follow - up social financing and money growth may be under pressure. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and pay attention to the stock - bond seesaw effect [7]. Precious Metals - **Market News**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver have declined, while the prices of COMEX gold and silver have increased. The US government shutdown has affected the release of economic data, and the Fed's meeting minutes show differences in the outlook for interest rates [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view on precious metals, but pay attention to short - term price corrections [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market News**: After the National Day, the copper price continued to be strong. The LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory also increased. The spot import loss expanded, and the scrap copper substitution advantage increased [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supply tightening and Fed rate - cut expectations support the copper price, but the short - term upward pace may slow down [12]. Aluminum - **Market News**: On the first day after the National Day, non - ferrous metals generally strengthened. The LME aluminum price rose, and the domestic aluminum inventory increased. The market atmosphere was warm, but the trade situation was still volatile [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and strong [14]. Zinc - **Market News**: The Shanghai zinc index rose, and the LME zinc price fell. The domestic social inventory increased slightly, and the zinc export window opened [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai zinc is expected to be strong in the short term [16]. Lead - **Market News**: The Shanghai lead index rose, and the LME lead price also rose. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Shanghai lead is expected to be in a wide - range low - level shock in the short term [17]. Nickel - **Market News**: The nickel price rose significantly. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was stable, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term nickel price may decline, but it is supported in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long on dips [18]. Tin - **Market News**: The tin price was strong. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors was still weak [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The tin price is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market News**: The carbonate lithium price was stable. The social inventory decreased, and a company obtained mining rights [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand mismatch has led to a decrease in inventory. Pay attention to the supply and demand situation and the market atmosphere [22]. Alumina - **Market News**: The alumina index rose. The domestic and overseas prices changed, and the import window opened [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The alumina market is expected to be volatile. Wait and see for the macro - mood resonance [24]. Stainless Steel - **Market News**: The stainless steel price rose. The raw material prices were stable, and the social inventory decreased slightly [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel price is expected to be range - bound. Pay attention to the RKAB approval progress [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market News**: The cast aluminum alloy price rose. The trading volume increased, and the inventory increased slightly [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downstream consumption is in the peak season, but the delivery pressure of the near - term contract is large, and the upside space is limited [28]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market News**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil remained unchanged [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current real - world demand for steel is weak, but the market's expectation of demand recovery is rising. Pay attention to policy signals [31]. Iron Ore - **Market News**: The iron ore price rose. The overseas shipment decreased, and the domestic arrival increased. The steel mill's profit rate continued to decline [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The iron ore price may adjust if the downstream situation weakens. Pay attention to the "Silver October" performance after restocking [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market News**: The glass price rose, and the inventory increased. The soda ash price fell, and the inventory decreased [34][36]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass is recommended to be treated bullishly in the short term, and soda ash is expected to be range - bound [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market News**: The manganese silicon price rose slightly, and the ferrosilicon price fell slightly. The prices are in a shock range [38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The black sector may first decline and then rise. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black sector's trend [39][40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market News**: The industrial silicon price was stable, and the polysilicon price fell. The supply and demand of industrial silicon changed little, and the polysilicon inventory was limited [42][44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and polysilicon may improve if the leading enterprises conduct maintenance [43][46]. Energy and Chemical Category Rubber - **Market News**: The rubber price stabilized. The tire production rate decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The spot price changed [48][50][52]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips and partially build a hedging position [53]. Crude Oil - **Market News**: The crude oil price fell, and the inventories of related products changed. The US EIA data showed inventory changes [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and verify the OPEC's export - price - support intention [55]. Methanol - **Market News**: The methanol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider short - term long positions after a decline [56]. Urea - **Market News**: The urea price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [57]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Consider long positions at a low price [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market News**: The pure benzene price was stable, and the styrene price fell. The supply and demand changed, and the inventory increased [59]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The styrene price may stop falling due to the seasonal peak season [60]. PVC - **Market News**: The PVC price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was strong, and the demand was weak [61]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PVC market is bearish in the medium term. Consider short positions [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market News**: The ethylene glycol price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was weak [64]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [65]. PTA - **Market News**: The PTA price fell, and the inventory increased. The supply was affected by maintenance, and the demand was stable [66]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term [67]. Para - Xylene - **Market News**: The para - xylene price rose, and the inventory increased. The supply was high, and the demand was affected by PTA maintenance [68]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market News**: The PE price fell, and the inventory decreased. The supply was limited, and the demand was expected to increase [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price may rise in the long term [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market News**: The PP price fell, and the inventory was high. The supply was large, and the demand was weak [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PP market is in a weak supply - demand situation, and the inventory pressure is high [74]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market News**: The live pig price continued to fall. The slaughtering and sales situation was not good [76]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The live pig price is expected to be weak in the short term. Short the near - term contract and conduct reverse hedging [77]. Eggs - **Market News**: The egg price generally fell. The supply was greater than the demand, and the market confidence was low [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg price is expected to be weak in the short term. Wait for the bottom - building [79]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market News**: The CBOT soybean price fell slightly. The domestic soybean meal price was stable, and the import cost was affected by multiple factors [80][81]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic soybean meal supply pressure is large. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [82]. Oils - **Market News**: Indonesia is promoting the B50 biodiesel plan. The domestic oil price rose, and the inventory may decrease [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oil price is expected to be strong. Go long on dips [84]. Sugar - **Market News**: The sugar price rebounded slightly. The Brazilian sugar production data was released, and the port waiting quantity increased [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The sugar price is expected to be bearish in the long term. Short on rallies in the fourth quarter [87]. Cotton - **Market News**: The cotton price rebounded slightly. The spot price fell, and the acquisition price was lower than last year [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cotton price is likely to be weak in the short term. There is cost support at the bottom [89].

铝类产业日报 2025/9/25 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,765.00 | +60.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,942.00 | +35.00↑ | | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | -5.00 220,640.00 | -5.00↓ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) -674.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | -33.00 303,116.00 | -7.00↓ -15757.0 ...

Group 1 - The main contracts for copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, lead, stainless steel, and alumina experienced mixed performance, with copper, aluminum, zinc, stainless steel, and alumina showing declines while nickel, tin, and lead recorded slight increases [1] - The closing prices for the main contracts were as follows: copper at 78,620 CNY/ton, aluminum at 20,010 CNY/ton, zinc at 22,225 CNY/ton, nickel at 122,280 CNY/ton, tin at 262,930 CNY/ton, lead at 16,710 CNY/ton, stainless steel at 12,615 CNY/ton, and alumina at 2,898 CNY/ton [1] - International copper main contract closed at 69,980 CNY/ton, reflecting a decrease of 0.34% [1]