铝策略月报 2025 年 9 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 氧化铝&电解铝&铝合金：预期乐观，上行有力 | | --- | | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据SMM，预计8月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能增至9109万吨，产量770万吨，环比增长0.7%，同比增长6.6%；几矿报价提升， | | | 广西部分企业再度出现常规检修情况。山东、山西开工持稳；8月国内电解铝运行产能小幅提升至4390万吨，产量373万吨，环比增长 | | | 0.2%，同比增长1.1%，铝水比小幅回落至73.7%。供给延续高位，广西技改项目投产，云南第二批置换项目投产，其他暂无变动计划。 | | | 2.需求：金九旺季将至，加工端开始稳步回暖。8月铝下游加工企业平均开工率59.7%，环比7月上调1.04%。其中铝板带开工率上调2.3% | | | 至65.6%，铝箔开工率上调0.24%至69.7%，铝型材开工率上调0.63%至50.63%，铝线缆开工率上调1.19%至62.95%。再生铝合金开工率下 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing a slight upward trend, with current trading showing a price of $2598 per ton, reflecting a 0.46% increase from the opening price [1] Aluminum Market Overview - On August 11, LME aluminum futures opened at $2606 per ton, reached a high of $2624 per ton, and closed at $2585 per ton, marking a decrease of 1.11% [1] - In the first week of August 2025, Brazil exported a total of 25.93 million tons of aluminum ore and aluminum concentrate, a significant drop from 53.24 million tons in August of the previous year. The average daily shipment increased by 78.58% to 4.32 million tons per day compared to 2.42 million tons per day last year [1] - As of August 11, the electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.9, with an import loss of -1546.36 yuan per ton, slightly improved from -1581.27 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - On August 11, LME reported aluminum registered warrants at 461,625 tons and canceled warrants at 14,225 tons, remaining stable; total aluminum inventory increased by 5,275 tons to 475,850 tons [1]