Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In September, the resumption of alumina production will increase, and warehouse receipts will gradually accumulate, further strengthening the expectation of oversupply. Due to the rainy season in Guinea and the domestic parade period, there are strong disturbance factors on the ore side. Alumina should be mainly shorted on rallies, but chasing the decline is not recommended. - Before the "Golden September" peak season, the stocking speed of downstream sectors has started quickly. There is a possibility of exceeding expectations in the demand for electrolytic aluminum during the peak - season cycle, and the profits of the aluminum industry will continue to shift from the upstream to the downstream. Driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut in September and the domestic peak season, electrolytic aluminum has strong upward momentum. - Due to the peak - season mismatch of aluminum alloy, there is room for the spread of far - month contracts to continue to repair. Opportunities such as the widening of the AL2510 - AO2510 spread and the narrowing of the AL2511 - AD2511 spread can be tracked. Attention should be paid to the pace of the US interest - rate cut and the confirmation or falsification of strong demand. [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price - In August, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly. As of the 29th, the main contract closed at 3036 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 5.8%. The Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 20740 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 1.1%. The aluminum alloy futures also fluctuated strongly, and the main contract closed at 20350 yuan/ton within the month, with a monthly increase of 6%. [5][6] 3.2 Spread - In August, alumina changed from a discount of 16 yuan/ton to a premium of 190 yuan/ton, and electrolytic aluminum's discount widened from 20 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton. [5][9] 3.3 Supply - According to SMM, it is estimated that in August, the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina will increase to 91.09 million tons, with a production of 7.7 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.7% and a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. In August, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum slightly increased to 43.9 million tons, with a production of 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. The molten - aluminum ratio slightly dropped to 73.7%. [3][5] 3.4 Demand - As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the processing end has started to recover steadily. In August, the average operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 59.7%, an increase of 1.04% compared with July. Among them, the operating rate of aluminum sheets and strips increased by 2.3% to 65.6%, the operating rate of aluminum foils increased by 0.24% to 69.7%, the operating rate of aluminum profiles increased by 0.63% to 50.63%, and the operating rate of aluminum cables increased by 1.19% to 62.95%. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0.21% to 53.15%. [3][5] 3.5 Inventory - In terms of exchange inventories, in August, alumina inventories increased by 82,200 tons to 88,200 tons; Shanghai aluminum inventories increased by 8,815 tons to 124,605 tons; LME inventories increased by 20,800 tons to 481,150 tons. In terms of social inventories, alumina monthly inventories increased by 15,000 tons to 63,000 tons; aluminum ingot monthly inventories increased by 76,000 tons to 620,000 tons; aluminum rod monthly inventories decreased by 13,000 tons to 134,000 tons. [3][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the third quarter, the alumina ore price will continue to decline. The profit margin of alumina will lead to an oversupply situation, continuously suppressing the market. After the rainy season in Guinea arrives in September, the alumina supply - demand may enter a mismatch stage, and there may be an opportunity for the price to reach a high point. - In the third quarter, the ingot output of electrolytic aluminum will continue to decline. After the end of the export rush, combined with the decline in photovoltaic and automobile production schedules, the supply - demand will converge bidirectionally, forming a game. - It is expected that the aluminum price will first decline and then rise in the second half of the year, with the lowest point from July to August. The low inventory at home and abroad provides strong bottom support, and the possibility of a smooth decline is low. If consumption exceeds expectations, there may be a driving force for further upward movement. With the end of the Sino - US tariff relaxation period and the uncertain Middle East situation, there are many macro - uncertain risk factors, and the amplitude may widen. [4] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price and Spread - In the first half of 2025, the alumina price dropped significantly, with the main contract closing at 2,986 yuan/ton as of the 27th, a total decline of 37%. The Shanghai aluminum price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 20,580 yuan/ton, a total increase of 4%. - In the first half of the year, the alumina spot premium decreased from 986 yuan/ton to 152 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum spot changed from a discount of 30 yuan/ton to a premium of 80 yuan/ton, and the near - far month spread changed from a discount of 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 165 yuan/ton. [6][8][12][15] 3.2 Supply - As of the end of June, the domestic alumina operating capacity will recover to 87.95 million tons, with an operating rate of 83.8%. The output in the first half of the year was 43.683 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The electrolytic aluminum operating capacity remained stable at 43.91 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.1%. The output in the first half of the year was 21.678 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The aluminum - water ratio increased to around 76%. - The domestic bauxite production in Shanxi and Henan is gradually recovering. The import volume of Guinea bauxite is gradually increasing as the rainy - season impact fades. [6][29][31] 3.3 Demand - In the first half of the year, the start - up rhythm was affected by tariffs, with an average start - up rate of 60.2%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.98%. From January to May, the downstream comprehensive processing orders exceeded expectations, with the processing PMI average at 51.8, a year - on - year increase of 4.5. It is expected that the decline space of the PMI in June will be significant. Among them, the start - up rates of aluminum plate, strip, foil, and cables decreased significantly year - on - year, while the profiles showed relative resilience. [4][7] 3.4 Inventory - Exchange inventory: In the first half of the year, the alumina inventory increased by 19,500 tons to 31,200 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased by 99,000 tons to 94,000 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 258,000 tons to 337,000 tons. - Social inventory: The alumina inventory decreased by 70,000 tons to 25,600 tons; the aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 463,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory increased by 39,500 tons to 142,500 tons. [4][7] 3.5 Future Capacity Projections - Domestic alumina: There are multiple new and replacement projects in various provinces, with a total planned capacity of 11.3 million tons. - Overseas alumina: There are many planned capacity expansion projects in countries such as India and Indonesia, with a total planned capacity of 30.35 million tons. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum: The operating capacity remains high and stable, mainly through the optimization and replacement of existing capacity and the transfer of capacity indicators between regions. The total planned new and replacement capacity in 2025 is 3.32 million tons. - Overseas electrolytic aluminum: The planned restart scale in 2025 is 1.01 million tons, and 205,000 tons have been restarted in the first quarter. [67][68][69] 3.6 Options - Alumina options: Analyzed historical volatility and the put - call ratio of option positions and trading volumes. - Shanghai aluminum options: Also analyzed historical volatility and the put - call ratio of option positions and trading volumes. [91][94][98][102]