冯卫东 天图投资创始合伙人、黑马加速导师 这几年消费投资的变化确实非常大，过去我们也经历过大大小小的周期起伏， 但这一次持续的时间比较长，我觉得都不是寒冬了，应该叫 做"小冰河期"。 其中一个比较共通的挑战，来自于IPO退出前景的不确定性，去年开始这方面的情况有了一些恢复。 这些都是短期波动，长期来看还是消费时代的变迁。 现在又有学者提出了 "第五消费时代" （日本社会学家三浦展出版的《第五消费时代》），就是说随着经济发展阶段的不同，背后驱动要素的 改变，整体的消费文化、消费观念、消费预期都会发生变化，而且会持续变化。 另外一个是来自供给侧的技术变革，这些会给未来的消费市场和消费投资带来巨大的变化。 实际上，复杂系统是没有所谓周期的，任何大的改变都是不可逆的，不是简单的循环。 死掉的行业基本上不会重新长出来，走出危机都是靠新产业的兴起。 消费投资也是同样，过去那一波新消费模式的繁荣已经一去不复返了。 一方面， 消费的赛道是很宽的，绝大部分经济活动最终都会通向C端消费， 所以它永远有机会，但另一方面， 消费投资的内容在不断变化。 三浦展， " 日本消费社会研究第一人 " 目前看来，中国的消费市场分层很明显——有 ...

Core Insights - The current consumption investment landscape is undergoing significant changes, described as a "small ice age" rather than a winter, indicating a prolonged period of transformation [1] - The uncertainty surrounding IPO exit prospects has been a common challenge, although there has been some recovery since last year [2] - Long-term trends indicate a shift in consumption culture and expectations, as highlighted by the concept of the "Fifth Consumption Era" proposed by Japanese sociologist Minoru Miura [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer market in China is clearly stratified, with first-tier cities entering the fourth consumption era, while others are transitioning between the third and fourth eras, presenting diverse investment opportunities [10] - There is a notable rise in cost-effective consumption over the past two years, while high-end brands that have withstood market challenges are increasingly favored by consumers as a form of self-reward [10][11] - The previous trend of novelty-seeking consumption has diminished, with consumers prioritizing conservative spending in light of insufficient income growth expectations [11] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The consumption investment landscape is evolving, with a shift towards mid-to-high-end brands that offer differentiation, leading to higher investment success rates compared to low-cost competitors [13] - Emerging trends include the aging population driving the silver economy, the youth's increasing focus on health, and the growing pet economy, indicating new avenues for investment [14] - The rise of new Chinese brands targeting the mid-to-high-end market is expected to follow the historical patterns seen in German and Japanese manufacturing, suggesting a maturation of the Chinese consumer market [14]

Core Insights - The current consumption investment landscape is undergoing significant changes, characterized as a "small ice age" rather than a winter, indicating prolonged challenges in the market [1] - The uncertainty surrounding IPO exit prospects has been a common challenge, although there has been some recovery since last year [2] - The long-term view suggests a transformation in consumption culture and expectations, as proposed by the concept of the "Fifth Consumption Era" [3] - Technological changes from the supply side are expected to bring substantial shifts in the consumption market and investment opportunities [4] - The notion that complex systems do not follow cyclical patterns implies that significant changes are irreversible [5] - Industries that have declined are unlikely to recover; new industries will emerge to drive recovery, similar to trends seen in consumption investment [6] Consumption Market Dynamics - The consumption sector is broad, with most economic activities ultimately leading to consumer spending, presenting ongoing opportunities [7] - China's consumption market shows clear stratification, with first-tier cities entering the fourth consumption era, while others are transitioning between the third and fourth eras, creating diverse investment opportunities [10] - Recent trends indicate a rise in cost-effective consumption, while high-end brands that have withstood market tests are gaining popularity as consumers seek small rewards for themselves [10][11] Investment Trends - The previous wave of new consumption models is unlikely to return, leading to a focus on mid-to-high-end products as a more stable investment choice [11][13] - The "Matthew Effect" suggests that cost-effective brands must achieve scale, making investment in this area riskier, while mid-to-high-end brands can offer multiple successful players within each category, increasing investment success rates [13] - Emerging trends in the Chinese market include the aging population leading to a silver economy, the youth's increasing focus on health, and the growing pet economy, indicating new avenues for investment [14]

Core Viewpoint - The current consumption investment landscape is undergoing significant changes, characterized as a "small ice age" rather than a winter, with long-lasting effects on consumer behavior and investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - There is a common challenge stemming from the uncertainty of IPO exit prospects, which has shown some recovery since last year [2]. - The long-term view indicates a transformation in consumption culture and expectations, as proposed by the concept of the "Fifth Consumption Era" by Japanese sociologist Minoru Miura, highlighting the evolving drivers behind consumer behavior [3]. - The Chinese consumption market is distinctly layered, with first-tier cities entering the fourth consumption era, while others are transitioning between the third and fourth eras, presenting varied investment opportunities [10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Recent years have seen a rise in cost-effective consumption, while high-end brands that have withstood market challenges are increasingly favored by consumers as a form of self-reward [10]. - The trend of trial-based consumption, often associated with internet celebrities, is declining as consumers prioritize conservative spending amid uncertain income growth expectations [11]. - The investment focus is shifting towards mid-to-high-end brands, which are seen as having a higher success rate due to their differentiation in the market [13]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The rise of new Chinese brands targeting the mid-to-high-end market is anticipated, driven by improvements in manufacturing quality and deeper brand understanding among entrepreneurs [14]. - Key trends for future investment include the aging population leading to a silver economy, the youth's increasing focus on health, and the growing pet economy, indicating strong consumer demand in these areas [14].

Group 1 - The current consumption investment landscape in China is undergoing significant changes, characterized as a "small ice age" rather than a simple winter, with prolonged challenges affecting the market [2] - The uncertainty surrounding IPO exit prospects has been a common challenge, although there has been some recovery since last year [2] - The concept of the "Fifth Consumption Era" has emerged, indicating that consumption culture and expectations will continue to evolve with economic development [2] Group 2 - China's consumption market shows clear stratification, with first-tier cities entering the Fourth Consumption Era, while others are transitioning between the Third and Fourth [3] - There is a notable rise in cost-effective consumption, while high-end brands that have withstood market tests are increasingly favored by consumers [3] - Investment choices are shifting towards mid-to-high-end products, as evidenced by the success of brands like Zhou Hei Ya and Bao Shifu [3] Group 3 - The "Matthew Effect" in cost-effective consumption means that only a few succeed, making investments in this area riskier, while mid-to-high-end brands can have multiple successful players in each category [5] - The trend of Chinese brands moving towards mid-to-high-end markets is expected to grow, similar to the experiences of German and Japanese manufacturing [6] - Key trends for investment include the aging population leading to a silver economy, the youth's focus on health, and the growing pet economy [6][7]