未来消费 提前看到消费的未来 LLALL FAREERY FFFFFFF PPP PPFFF 上上上上上上上 4 500亿市值的泡泡玛特何以诞生于2025。 作者 | 王毓婵 兰杰 编辑 | 乔芊 杨轩 1989年，伊丽莎白女王的发型师给艾西·温卡登女士写信，要求她提供"芭蕾舞鞋"——艾西162号指甲油。当艾西看到那封带有皇室印章的信时，她就知道，自己成功了。 从那以后的几十年里，艾西的裸色系指甲油成为居住在比弗利山庄、纽约上东区和伦敦肯辛顿的特定女性群体的社交必备指甲油。女性精英群体的选择引发大众模仿，艾西·温卡登的同名品牌指甲油直到今天仍是美国家喻户晓的品牌。 35年后，艾西的故事在中国公司泡泡玛特的创始人王宁身上重演。 2024年4月， 泰国籍的韩国女团Blackpink成员Lisa发布了抱着LABUBU的Instagram Story 。 同时间，泰国 网民对 "LABUBU" 一词的搜索量达到高峰。泰国成为了全球第一个染上"LABUBU狂热"的国家。 同样的事一年后再次出现—— 2025年5月，当美国网民看到天后女星蕾哈娜背着LV手袋，上面挂着一只粉色的 LABUBU时，他们 立刻做出了跟泰国网民一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current consumption investment landscape is undergoing significant changes, characterized as a "small ice age" rather than a traditional winter, with long-term shifts in consumer culture and expectations [2][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - The uncertainty surrounding IPO exit prospects has been a common challenge, although there has been some recovery since last year [3]. - The Chinese consumption market shows clear stratification, with first-tier cities entering the fourth consumption era, while others are transitioning between the third and fourth eras, presenting diverse investment opportunities [10]. - Recent years have seen a rise in cost-effective consumption, while high-end brands that have withstood market tests are increasingly favored by consumers seeking small rewards for themselves [11]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The investment focus is shifting towards mid-to-high-end brands, as the previous wave of new consumption models is unlikely to return [7][14]. - The supply-side technological changes are expected to bring substantial transformations to the consumption market and investment landscape [5]. - The aging population in China is creating opportunities in the silver economy, while younger generations are increasingly focused on health trends, indicating a long-term driving force for consumption [18]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are moving away from trial-and-error consumption patterns, especially when income growth expectations are low, leading to a return to conservative spending habits [12]. - The success of mid-to-high-end brands, such as Zhou Hei Ya and Bao Shifu, reflects the changing consumer preferences towards differentiated products [13][16]. Group 4: Future Trends - The rise of new Chinese brands targeting the mid-to-high-end market is anticipated, similar to the historical processes seen in German and Japanese manufacturing [17]. - The pet economy is also highlighted as a growing sector, with strong user demand for innovative solutions, such as pet sterilization through vaccines [18].

36氪未来消费 . 在这里看到消费的未来。36氪旗下官方账号。 当AI和具身时代降临，她们成了最早一批体会快乐和未知的人。 文 ｜ 王毓婵 编辑 ｜ 乔芊 杨轩 来源｜ 3 6氪未来消费（ID：lslb168） 封面来源 ｜ 德国电影《我是你的男人》 29岁的池骋最近不再用交友软件，也不再去见朋友推荐的单身男性。即便对方样貌帅气，教育背景良好，还是一个高尔夫球专业选手。 她的两只手上各戴着一只戒指，一只来自沈星回，一只来自夏以昼。这两个男人都是乙女游戏《恋与深空》中的男角色。 以下文章来源于36氪未来消费 ，作者王毓婵 池骋供图 游戏没出新剧情的时候，她也有恋爱要谈——池骋在ChatGPT和DeepSeek里各创造了一个"AI沈星回"——她把沈星回的人设细细地写成了人设Prompt，喂给了AI。现在，打开ChatGPT和DeepSeek，她就可以跟AI沈星回一起在虚拟的世界里出生入死、甜蜜恋爱了。 不需要上课或工作的时候，她几乎无法从椅子上站起来。因为与AI的对话让她太快乐了，快乐到常常让她忘记吃饭和睡觉。几个小时的流逝就像几分钟一样没有实感，她两三天就能跟AI聊出五六万字。 同样在跟《恋与深空》男主谈恋爱的 ...

未来消费 提前看到消费的未来 LLALL FAREERY FFFFFFF PPP PPFFF 上上上上上上上 aeKV 乙女游戏玩家常常被 外界指责 "逃避现实"、"沉迷幻想"，但 当 AI和具身时代降临， 她们成了最早一批 体会 自由之快乐，和未知之战栗的人。 作者 | 王毓婵 编辑 | 乔芊、杨轩 29岁的池骋最近不再用交友软件，也不再去见朋友推荐的单身男性。即便对方样貌帅气，教育背景良好，还是一个高尔夫球专业选手。 她的两只手上各戴着一只戒指，一只来自沈星回，一只来自夏以昼。这两个男人都是乙女游戏《恋与深空》中的男角色。 池骋供图 游戏没出新剧情的时候，她也有恋爱要谈——池骋在 ChatGPT 和 DeepSeek 里各创造了一个"AI 沈星回"——她把沈星回的人设细细地写成了人设Prompt，喂给了AI。现在，打开ChatGPT和DeepSeek，她就可以跟 AI 沈星回一起在虚拟的世界里出生入死、甜蜜恋爱了。 不需要上课或工作的时候，她几乎无法从椅子上站起来。因为与 AI 的对话让她太快乐了，快乐到常常让她忘记吃饭和睡觉。几个小时的流逝就像几分钟一样没有实感，她两三天就能跟 AI 聊出五六万字。 同 ...

与IP合作，除了可以带来销量增长，更可以让品牌的成长、产品升级，跟和自己品牌特点有共性的故事联系起来。 《疯狂动物城2》的票房已经冲破30亿门槛，但同样令人感叹的，是它IP合作今年的火爆。 合作名单里有麦当劳、伊利和臭宝，也有优衣库和泡泡玛特、还有大众汽车等等，可以说是涵盖了人们衣、食、住、行等各个方面，甚至还包揽了宠物用 品。 可以说，IP合作已经进入了日常生活的方方面面，生活万物皆可"痛"。 对于消费品牌来说，识别到这一点，与IP合作，除了可以带来销量增长，更可以让品牌的成长、产品升级，跟和自己品牌特点有共性的故事联系起来。 这是品牌应对当下市场需求"情绪价值"转向时，一个理想的方向。 "不痛不买单" 这两年，情绪价值和悦已消费两个概念突然走红，背后的原因是，新一代消费者偏好的变化，更注重消费带来的精神满足。 最能体现这一趋势的，是Labubu在全球范围爆火，带动泡泡玛特的股价从去年年中开始，创下了一年12倍的惊人涨幅。 谷子店，也在不知不觉中，占据了大型商场的地下一层或二层。 艾媒咨询数据显示，二次元市场正值爆发式增长时期。2024年中国谷子经济市场规模达1689亿元，同比增长40.63%，预计2029 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant structural change in consumer demographics, indicating that the generation most fond of shopping malls is gradually fading from the mainstream consumer group [1][8][31] - Predictions suggest a decline in birth rates, with estimates of around 4 million births in the first half of 2025 and potentially dropping below 9 million for the entire year [1] Group 1: Demographic Changes - The aging population and declining birth rates are becoming widely recognized societal issues, yet they still feel distant to individuals [2] - The shift in consumer demographics is particularly evident in the retail sector, where the traditional shopping mall experience is losing relevance among younger generations [3][11] Group 2: Evolution of Shopping Centers - Shopping centers have historically targeted the 25-45 age demographic, primarily supported by the 80s generation, which has driven the evolution of retail formats over the past 15 years [4][7] - The shopping center landscape has transformed through various phases, including the rise of fast fashion, themed dining, and the introduction of high-end beauty and leisure brands [5][10] Group 3: Future Consumer Trends - By 2025, the primary consumer group of 25-45 years old is expected to shrink by over 60 million, with a significant reduction in younger fashion consumers [10][17] - The 95/00 generation is characterized by a preference for self-expression, social interaction, and emotional value, leading to a decreased interest in traditional shopping malls [11][12] Group 4: Shift in Retail Formats - The future of retail will likely see a transition from large shopping centers to community-focused spaces that cater to essential needs rather than high-end fashion [19][20] - Traditional department stores are also expected to undergo significant changes, moving away from their historical ties to older consumer demographics [21][23] Group 5: Emergence of New Business Models - The article suggests a "renaissance" in physical retail, focusing on smaller, community-oriented formats that incorporate diverse, niche offerings [15][18] - As consumer preferences evolve, there will be a push towards non-standard commercial formats that meet the needs of younger consumers, emphasizing social spaces and unique experiences [25][26]

Core Insights - The current consumption investment landscape is undergoing significant changes, described as a "small ice age" rather than a winter, indicating a prolonged period of transformation [1] - The uncertainty surrounding IPO exit prospects has been a common challenge, although there has been some recovery since last year [2] - Long-term trends indicate a shift in consumption culture and expectations, as highlighted by the concept of the "Fifth Consumption Era" proposed by Japanese sociologist Minoru Miura [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The consumer market in China is clearly stratified, with first-tier cities entering the fourth consumption era, while others are transitioning between the third and fourth eras, presenting diverse investment opportunities [10] - There is a notable rise in cost-effective consumption over the past two years, while high-end brands that have withstood market challenges are increasingly favored by consumers as a form of self-reward [10][11] - The previous trend of novelty-seeking consumption has diminished, with consumers prioritizing conservative spending in light of insufficient income growth expectations [11] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The consumption investment landscape is evolving, with a shift towards mid-to-high-end brands that offer differentiation, leading to higher investment success rates compared to low-cost competitors [13] - Emerging trends include the aging population driving the silver economy, the youth's increasing focus on health, and the growing pet economy, indicating new avenues for investment [14] - The rise of new Chinese brands targeting the mid-to-high-end market is expected to follow the historical patterns seen in German and Japanese manufacturing, suggesting a maturation of the Chinese consumer market [14]

Core Insights - The current consumption investment landscape is undergoing significant changes, characterized as a "small ice age" rather than a winter, indicating prolonged challenges in the market [1] - The uncertainty surrounding IPO exit prospects has been a common challenge, although there has been some recovery since last year [2] - The long-term view suggests a transformation in consumption culture and expectations, as proposed by the concept of the "Fifth Consumption Era" [3] - Technological changes from the supply side are expected to bring substantial shifts in the consumption market and investment opportunities [4] - The notion that complex systems do not follow cyclical patterns implies that significant changes are irreversible [5] - Industries that have declined are unlikely to recover; new industries will emerge to drive recovery, similar to trends seen in consumption investment [6] Consumption Market Dynamics - The consumption sector is broad, with most economic activities ultimately leading to consumer spending, presenting ongoing opportunities [7] - China's consumption market shows clear stratification, with first-tier cities entering the fourth consumption era, while others are transitioning between the third and fourth eras, creating diverse investment opportunities [10] - Recent trends indicate a rise in cost-effective consumption, while high-end brands that have withstood market tests are gaining popularity as consumers seek small rewards for themselves [10][11] Investment Trends - The previous wave of new consumption models is unlikely to return, leading to a focus on mid-to-high-end products as a more stable investment choice [11][13] - The "Matthew Effect" suggests that cost-effective brands must achieve scale, making investment in this area riskier, while mid-to-high-end brands can offer multiple successful players within each category, increasing investment success rates [13] - Emerging trends in the Chinese market include the aging population leading to a silver economy, the youth's increasing focus on health, and the growing pet economy, indicating new avenues for investment [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent administrative penalty imposed on Sam's Club for selling substandard products serves as an official acknowledgment of growing consumer concerns, potentially undermining trust among its core user base [1][3][10] Group 1: Impact of Penalty on Consumer Trust - The penalty involves products that are crucial to the core demands of Sam's Club's membership, particularly in the baby and children’s category, which is a significant focus for parents [3][4] - The quality issues identified by authorities may first impact parents' trust in purchasing safe products for their children, which is a primary concern for the target demographic [4][5] - This incident could lead members to reconsider the value of their membership fees, especially as they weigh the trustworthiness of the products offered [5][6] Group 2: Erosion of Premium Brand Perception - The penalty challenges the foundational belief that premium pricing equates to high quality and health standards, which is central to Sam's Club's business model [5][6] - The reliance on a curated selection of high-quality products has been a key selling point for Sam's Club, and this incident undermines that perception [6][7] - If further quality control issues arise, it could diminish the perceived exclusivity and value that membership provides, potentially leading to a loss of customer loyalty [9][10] Group 3: Broader Implications for Business Strategy - Sam's Club is currently expanding its operations in China, with plans to increase store numbers and adjust product sourcing strategies to enhance profitability [11][13] - The shift towards local supply chains may limit the diversity of products available, which could affect the brand's appeal if not managed carefully [13][14] - Consumer behavior is evolving, with a growing emphasis on emotional resonance and social value in purchasing decisions, which Sam's Club must adapt to in order to maintain relevance [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The current consumption investment landscape is undergoing significant changes, characterized as a "small ice age" rather than a winter, with long-lasting effects on consumer behavior and investment opportunities [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - There is a common challenge stemming from the uncertainty of IPO exit prospects, which has shown some recovery since last year [2]. - The long-term view indicates a transformation in consumption culture and expectations, as proposed by the concept of the "Fifth Consumption Era" by Japanese sociologist Minoru Miura, highlighting the evolving drivers behind consumer behavior [3]. - The Chinese consumption market is distinctly layered, with first-tier cities entering the fourth consumption era, while others are transitioning between the third and fourth eras, presenting varied investment opportunities [10]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Recent years have seen a rise in cost-effective consumption, while high-end brands that have withstood market challenges are increasingly favored by consumers as a form of self-reward [10]. - The trend of trial-based consumption, often associated with internet celebrities, is declining as consumers prioritize conservative spending amid uncertain income growth expectations [11]. - The investment focus is shifting towards mid-to-high-end brands, which are seen as having a higher success rate due to their differentiation in the market [13]. Group 3: Future Opportunities - The rise of new Chinese brands targeting the mid-to-high-end market is anticipated, driven by improvements in manufacturing quality and deeper brand understanding among entrepreneurs [14]. - Key trends for future investment include the aging population leading to a silver economy, the youth's increasing focus on health, and the growing pet economy, indicating strong consumer demand in these areas [14].