业 及 产 业 2025 年 08 月 23 日 冯思远 (8621)23297818× fengsy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 郑庆明 A0230519090001 zhengqm@swsresearch.com 林颖颖 A0230522070004 linyy@swsresearch.com 冯思远 A0230522090005 fengsy@swsresearch.com 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 研究支持 李禹昊 A0230525070004 liyh2@swsresearch.com 联系人 上市银行有望开启新一轮稳 ROE 周期 看好 ——银行新周期、新格局系列之再看盈利驱动 前言：我们曾在今年 5 月发布的专题报告《再论银行业投资框架与配置价值》中提出一个核 心判断：上市银行或已重新进入 ROE 趋稳阶段。基于此，当我们讨论银行股估值时，在传统 PB 视角的基础上参考 PE 会更能凸显银行的配置价值。本篇报告从维护金 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant number of listed banks in China are distributing cash dividends, with 37 out of 42 A-share listed banks having completed their annual dividend distributions by July 16, 2024, totaling 632.6 billion yuan, marking a 3.1% increase year-on-year [2][5][11]. Dividend Distribution - The total cash dividends distributed by 42 A-share listed banks for 2024 amount to 632.6 billion yuan, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) leading with 109.77 billion yuan and 100.75 billion yuan respectively [2][5][7]. - Notably, Zhengzhou Bank has the lowest total dividend of 18.2 million yuan, with a dividend rate of only 9.69%, the lowest among the listed banks [2][6][11]. Timing of Dividend Payments - Several banks, including SPDB and Ningbo Bank, have advanced their dividend payment dates, with SPDB distributing dividends on July 16 and Ningbo Bank distributing 5.943 billion yuan [3][4]. - Traditionally, annual dividends are distributed between June and July, but this year, four state-owned banks completed their distributions earlier, in April and May [4][5]. Year-on-Year Comparison - Among the 42 listed banks, only three banks saw a decline in their total dividend amounts compared to 2023: Zhejiang Commercial Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Ping An Bank, with declines of 4.88%, 11.11%, and 15.44% respectively [9][10]. - Conversely, 34 banks experienced an increase in their dividend amounts, with the highest growth seen in Zhengzhou Bank, which had no dividends in 2023 but distributed 18.2 million yuan in 2024 [9][10]. Future Dividend Plans - Many banks have outlined their cash dividend targets for 2025, with plans to distribute at least 30% of their net profits as cash dividends annually [12].

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Bank's largest shareholder, Suzhou International Development Group, has significantly increased its stake in the bank, indicating confidence in the bank's future performance and potential for further investment [1][2][6]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Suzhou International Development Group has acquired a total of 118 million shares of Suzhou Bank from January 14 to June 26, representing 2.63% of the bank's total share capital, with an investment of 856 million yuan [1]. - The group has exceeded its initial plan of a 300 million yuan increase, raising its total shareholding to 14.7292% when combined with its concerted action partner, Dongwu Securities [2][6]. - The bank has received approval from the Jiangsu Financial Regulatory Bureau for the change in shareholding, suggesting that the group may aim to surpass a 15% stake [3][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of the end of March, Suzhou Bank reported total assets of 727.154 billion yuan, a 4.82% increase from the beginning of the year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% [7]. - The bank's first-quarter revenue was 3.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.76%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.554 billion yuan, up 6.80% year-on-year [7]. Group 3: Convertible Bonds and Market Trends - The bank's convertible bond, "Suzhou Bank Convertible Bond," has triggered a mandatory redemption clause due to a stock price increase of over 30% in 2024, indicating strong market performance [9]. - The total share capital of Suzhou Bank is expected to increase to approximately 3.98 billion shares by January 20, 2025, due to the conversion of convertible bonds [10]. - The trend of shareholders increasing their stakes through convertible bond conversions has been observed in other banks, reflecting a broader recovery in the banking sector's valuation [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Suzhou Bank, with an adjusted target valuation set at 1 times PB for 2025 [8]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the strong regional presence, substantial provisions, and excellent performance characteristics of Suzhou Bank, highlighting the significant shareholding increase by the major shareholder, Guofa Group, as a key catalyst for investment [8]. - The report notes that Guofa Group has increased its stake to approximately 14.6% and has completed a share buyback plan exceeding the lower limit, indicating confidence in the bank's long-term growth potential [6][8]. - The expected improvement in mid-year revenue performance and the bank's ability to maintain a leading position in profit growth within the industry are also highlighted [8]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total operating income is projected to grow from 11,866.12 million in 2023 to 14,377.10 million by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.17% [7]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 4,600.65 million in 2023 to 6,353.92 million in 2027, reflecting a growth rate of 8.29% by 2027 [7]. - The report anticipates a decrease in asset impairment losses from 1,647.96 million in 2023 to 2,223.63 million by 2027, indicating improved asset quality [7]. - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is projected to remain stable at around 0.82% from 2025 to 2027, with a high provision coverage ratio of over 420% expected to be maintained [7][8]. Shareholder Activity - Guofa Group has increased its holdings in Suzhou Bank four times since September 2024, accumulating a total of 2.2 billion shares for nearly 17 billion, demonstrating strong confidence in the bank's future [9]. - Following the approval of shareholder qualifications, Guofa Group's maximum holding limit has increased to 20%, allowing for further potential share purchases [8][9]. Valuation Comparison - As of June 26, 2025, Suzhou Bank's closing price is 9.13 yuan, with a market capitalization of 40,071 million yuan and a price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.79, indicating an approximate 11% discount compared to comparable peers [8][13]. - The report suggests that the current stock price corresponds to a 2025 P/B of 0.79, with an expected dividend yield of around 4.0%, providing a potential upside of 27% [8].

Group 1 - Agricultural Bank of China was increased by China Ping An Life Insurance Company, acquiring 29.896 million shares at an average price of HKD 5.0291 per share, totaling approximately HKD 150 million, raising its stake from 11.93% to 12.03% [1] - In 2024, the insurance sector has initiated a third wave of shareholding increases, with 15 instances recorded by seven insurance companies, surpassing the total for the entire year of 2023 and the first nine months of 2024 [1] - The companies targeted for shareholding increases include Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank, and several others, with nine of these stocks being H-shares [1] Group 2 - The banking sector has been the most frequently targeted for shareholding increases, alongside public utilities, energy, and transportation sectors [2] - Research from Shenwan Hongyuan indicates that the banking sector has begun a valuation recovery in 2024, despite external economic pressures, suggesting a need to revise existing analytical frameworks [2] - Tianfeng Securities reports that the valuation recovery logic driven by dividend value is expected to continue, with limited downward pressure on net interest margins and a stable performance outlook for banks [2] Group 3 - Related Hong Kong stocks in the banking sector include Citic Bank, Minsheng Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, China Construction Bank, and Bank of China [3]