消息面上，11月19日，中国农业发展银行与中国建设银行股份有限公司在京签订全面合作协议。双方采 用"总行+分行"签约形式，13家分行同步签约。根据协议，双方将进一步在金融市场、银团贷款、咨询 业务等领域开展深入合作。 据智通财经，"过去依靠规模扩张的阶段已经结束，中国银行业已迈入转型升级、价值创造的新阶 段。"招商银行行长王良在11月19日举办的2025深圳国际金融大会上如是说。王良表示，当前我国银行 业已经站在转型升级的"十字路口"，银行业需要将国家所需、行业所向、客户所愿和自身所能紧密结合 起来，加快转型升级，全面提升服务中国式现代化和建设金融强国的能力。 11月21日，银行板块早盘活跃，中证银行指数截至发稿跌0.20%，成分股中，中国银行一度涨超2%，续 创历史新高，南京银行、工商银行、厦门银行、长沙银行等跟涨，西安银行跌近2%。 相关ETF中，银行ETF天弘（515290）走势震荡，截至发稿成交额超5000万元。 银行ETF天弘（515290，场外C类001595）打包A股42家上市银行，覆盖国有大行、股份行、城商行全 链条，布局银行整体板块行情。 申万宏源表示，我们重申聚焦"龙头搭台+底部股份行、优 ...

天风证券认为，低利率环境下，银行表内资产结构中贷款增速与债券投资增速"背离态势"可能会更加明 显。我国银行体系竞争格局已经出现明显"逆转"，不太需要担心2026年国有大行会出现信贷缩表，预计 银行投放税后低于同期限国债利率贷款的情况已经得到明显改善。 开源证券表示，债市利率或已达到国股行合意配置点位，预计Q4银行配置盘买债力度不小。银行估值 仍处于历史偏低水平，中长期资金亦具备配置动能，增加银行板块配置是"高切低"及均衡配置思路下的 较优选择，建议配置大型国有银行如农业银行、工商银行作为底仓，核心配置招商银行、中信银行、兴 业银行等头部综合龙头，弹性配置江苏银行、重庆银行、渝农商行等。 然而在午盘收盘后，中国银行市净率为0.76，仍未修复至1以上。在申万银行分类下，截至11月19日收 盘，42家A股上市银行仅有农业银行、招商银行市净率大于1，市场投资者对银行的账面价值仍心存疑 虑。 11月20日，银行板块集体异动，中国银行（601988.SH）盘中触及6.33元/股，创历史新高，截至午盘， 建设银行（601939.SH）上涨4.73%，邮储银行（601658.SH）上涨3.84%，银行指数（881155.TI ...

不容忽视，银行板块价值回归的资金驱动力：1）"前所未有的低利率环境"是带动增量资金流向红利板 块最直接驱动，银行板块性价比更优。对标美国和日本，低利率环境中红利高股息策略总体跑赢，也是 险资更为青睐的投资方向；而当前银行指数股息率约4.3%，较十年国债利率溢价位居过去十年超70%分 位，在红利板块中性价比更为突出。2）耐心资本入市仅是开端，以险资为代表的中长期资金密集增配 银行已验证趋势，我们基于险资权益配置用足上限估算，假设增量资金40%配置OCI、其中40%配置银 行股，则对应潜在流入空间约6000亿；此外，公募基金改革带动欠配板块资金配置，3Q25银行股重仓 占比降至近十年最低的1.74%，估算若公募基金持仓各银行比重持平沪深300中权重，则带来增量资金 超3700亿。 2026年我们可以期待的银行基本面新变化：1）央行明确提出"支持银行稳定净息差"并将之与"拓宽货币 政策逆周期调节空间"直接勾稽，聚焦量与价的新平衡，我们预计2026年银行息差或扭转下行趋势转为 同比微升，存款成本改善空间更大的银行息差表现将好于同业。核心在于改变低价冲量的大环境，直接 扭转过去"量难补价、有量无价、无量更无价"的囹圄， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] Core Views - The state-owned banks are undergoing a systematic valuation repair process, with the company currently having the lowest PB valuation among state-owned banks in A-shares, at 0.59x, which is a 26% discount compared to the average of the other five major state-owned banks [11][17] - The expected dividend yield for 2025 is the highest among state-owned banks at 4.3%, indicating significant valuation repair potential and elasticity [11][17] - Recent improvements in the company's fundamentals have not been fully priced in, with net interest margins stabilizing and asset quality indicators showing continuous improvement [11][17] Summary by Sections Valuation and Dividend Yield - The company is trading at a PB valuation of 0.59x, which is 26% lower than the average of other major state-owned banks and 17% lower than three other banks that have completed fiscal injections this year [11][17] - The expected ROE for 2025 is 8% lower than the average of three other state-owned banks, suggesting that the current valuation discount is unreasonable [11][17] - The A/H share price difference is the lowest among major banks, with H shares trading at a 12% discount, significantly lower than the average of 24% for other state-owned banks [11][17] Fundamental Improvements - Since the asset quality improvement campaign began at the end of 2019, risk indicators have shown continuous improvement, with the non-performing loan ratio decreasing by 5 basis points to 1.26% as of Q3 2025, marking a cumulative decline of 42 basis points from the peak in 2020 [11][17] - The company's provision coverage ratio reached a ten-year high of 210% as of Q3 2025, indicating enhanced risk absorption capacity [11][17] - The net interest margin has shown the best performance among state-owned banks since 2024, supporting positive growth in net interest income [11][17] Market Performance and Future Outlook - The company's stock price has declined by 9% since July 10, 2025, the largest drop among state-owned banks, primarily due to trading factors [11][17] - The current stock price is 12% lower than the price at which fiscal injections were made this year, the highest discount among four state-owned banks [11][17] - The recent acceleration of mid-term dividends among state-owned banks is expected to attract dividend-focused investors, with the company's A-share index weight at 0.78%, ranking fifth among bank stocks [11][17]

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has experienced a significant rise in its A-share stock price, achieving a 12-day consecutive increase and surpassing a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1, indicating a potential valuation recovery for bank stocks in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - ABC's A-share stock price reached a high of 7.76 CNY per share on October 20, closing at 7.75 CNY, with a daily increase of 1.71% [1]. - Year-to-date, ABC's A-share stock has risen by 51.65%, leading the banking sector [1]. - The total market capitalization of ABC's A+H shares is approximately 2.63 trillion CNY as of October 20 [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, ABC reported operating revenue of 369.94 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 139.51 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.7%, making it the only major bank to achieve both revenue and profit growth [1]. Group 3: Investment Insights - Analysts highlight four key strengths of ABC: significant credit growth potential in county economies, leading personal deposit ratios, the lowest non-performing loan (NPL) ratio among peers, and strong provisioning for risk management [2]. - Market analysts predict a favorable environment for bank stocks in the fourth quarter, driven by potential shifts in investment strategies and historical trends indicating strong performance for bank indices during this period [2]. - The crossing of the PB ratio above 1 is seen as a pivotal moment for bank stock valuation recovery, with expectations for continued positive performance in the sector [3].

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has experienced a significant stock price increase, achieving a 12-day consecutive rise and breaking the price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1, indicating a potential valuation recovery for bank stocks [1][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - ABC's A-shares reached a closing price of 7.75 yuan on October 20, 2023, with a single-day increase of 1.71%, and a year-to-date increase of 51.65%, leading the banking sector [3]. - The market capitalization of ABC's A and H shares combined is approximately 2.63 trillion yuan [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2023, ABC reported operating income of 369.94 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 139.51 billion yuan, up 2.7%, making it the only major bank to achieve growth in both metrics [3]. Group 3: Strategic Insights - Analysts highlight four key strengths of ABC: 1. Greater credit growth potential due to deep engagement in county economies [4]. 2. Leading position in personal demand deposits among peers, resulting in lower funding costs and stronger interest margins [4]. 3. Lowest non-performing loan ratio compared to peers, with manageable risks in real estate-related loans [4]. 4. High provisions enhancing risk absorption and profit reinvestment capabilities [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts predict a favorable market environment for bank stocks in the fourth quarter, driven by potential shifts in investment strategies and historical trends indicating strong performance for bank indices during this period [4][5].

Group 1 - The overall A-share market continues to adjust, but the banking sector shows resilience, with notable gains in several banks such as Shanghai Pudong Development Bank rising over 5% and Nanjing Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank rising over 2% [1] - The bank ETF (512800) has seen a net inflow of 7.63 billion yuan over the past three days, indicating renewed investor interest in the banking sector amid increased market volatility [3] - Global perspectives suggest that Chinese banks are undervalued relative to their current ROE, reflecting market pessimism about the economy, but medium to long-term prospects remain strong due to innovation and structural opportunities [3] Group 2 - The bank ETF (512800) and its linked funds are efficient investment tools that track the performance of the banking sector, comprising 42 listed banks in A-shares [4] - The bank ETF (512800) maintains a significant scale, with an average daily trading volume exceeding 600 million yuan this year, making it the largest and most liquid among A-share bank ETFs [4] - The average static dividend yield for A-share listed banks has risen to 4.3%, and the average static PB level has decreased to 0.61x, indicating a high potential for equity returns [3]

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities analyzes the performance of 154 banks across 17 global markets from 2015 to 2025, highlighting the core investment logic in the banking sector and suggesting that Chinese banks are undervalued with significant potential for valuation recovery [1][2][6]. Global Banking Index Performance - Economic fundamentals are the primary drivers of banking index performance, with Indian and US banking indices leading with cumulative gains of 196% and 147% respectively from early 2015 to September 2025, benefiting from strong economic growth [1][2]. - Japanese and European banking indices, which were sluggish from 2015 to 2019, rebounded post-2021 due to the exit from zero/negative interest rates and economic recovery, achieving cumulative gains of 140% and 60% respectively [1][2]. - The Korean banking index has historically been below 0.5x price-to-book (PB) ratio, expected to recover to 0.65x by the end of 2024 after interest rate cuts [1][2]. - The Shenyin Wanguo banking index has only seen an 18% increase, with a PB ratio of 0.53x, reflecting pessimistic market expectations due to pressures from economic structural transformation in China [1][2]. Individual Bank Performance - Over 60% of the sampled banks outperformed their domestic market indices, with one-third surpassing the S&P 500 index. Notably, banks in high-growth regions like Vietnam saw stock price increases between 531% and 584% [2][6]. - Major US banks, such as JPMorgan Chase, experienced a 574% increase, while specialized banks like First Citizens Bank rose by 668% [2][6]. - In China, only two banks, China Merchants Bank and Ningbo Bank, outperformed the S&P 500, with increases of 277% and 252% respectively, indicating significant individual stock differentiation [2][6]. Valuation Insights - Chinese banks are globally undervalued, with an average PB ratio of 0.52x compared to 1.29x for 240 global banks. This is lower than South Korea (0.55x), Japan (0.82x), and the US (1.38x) [2][6]. - The disparity between PB ratios and return on equity (ROE) for Chinese banks suggests market pessimism regarding future ROE expectations. For instance, China Merchants Bank has an ROE of 14.95% with a PB of 0.97x, while JPMorgan Chase has an ROE of 18.19% with a PB of 2.57x [2][6]. Economic Resilience and Future Outlook - Despite recent economic pressures, China's economy is expected to demonstrate medium to long-term resilience, supported by innovation, industrial upgrades, urbanization, consumption, and regional development [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the potential for significant valuation recovery in Chinese banks, driven by structural economic improvements and a more optimistic outlook for the banking sector [2][6].

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for quality banks in China, indicating significant valuation recovery potential [2][3]. Core Insights - The core conclusion emphasizes not to underestimate the resilience of China's economy, with a substantial space for bank valuation recovery. The investment focus should be on quality banks with stable operations and those with specialized business models [2][3]. - The report highlights that the investment in the banking sector is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors, with a strong correlation between bank profitability and economic performance [33][56]. Summary by Sections Global Banking Index Performance - The report outlines the performance of various banking indices over the past decade, noting that the Indian CNX Nifty Bank Index has seen a cumulative increase of 196%, while the Shenyin Wanguo Bank Index has only increased by 18% [5][19]. - It indicates that the Shenyin Wanguo Bank Index has lagged behind other global indices, primarily due to the economic pressures faced in China since 2022 [57][58]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality cyclical stocks that are expected to outperform as the economic fundamentals improve, particularly in the fourth quarter and early next year [3]. - Specific banks such as Ningbo Bank and China Merchants Bank are highlighted as key investment opportunities, along with a recommendation to monitor banks like Changshu Bank and Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank [3][82]. Bank Performance Analysis - Among the 154 sample banks analyzed, 102 outperformed the domestic market index, with notable performances from banks in strong economic growth regions such as the UAE and Vietnam [82]. - The report notes that the performance of banks varies significantly based on their economic environment, governance, and market conditions, with private banks in India showing better performance compared to state-owned banks [89].

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of 42 listed banks in A-shares as of September 1, with no significant changes in the rankings of state-owned and joint-stock banks in terms of total market value, asset scale, revenue, and net profit compared to the end of last year or the same period last year [1] - Jiangsu Bank has emerged as the leading city commercial bank in total assets, surpassing Beijing Bank, while Nanjing Bank has climbed to the third position among city commercial banks [6][7] Market Value and Revenue - The overall market value of listed banks has generally recovered, with the price-to-book ratio rising from 0.57 at the end of last year to 0.64 by the end of August [3] - Agricultural Bank of China has shown significant stock price growth, with its market value nearing that of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with a market value of 2.46 trillion yuan, only 715 billion yuan higher than Agricultural Bank [4] - Minsheng Bank's revenue increased by nearly 8% year-on-year, ranking first among state-owned and joint-stock banks, with a revenue of 724 billion yuan [10] Asset Scale - Agricultural Bank's total assets have grown rapidly, surpassing China Construction Bank, with a total asset scale of 52.3 trillion yuan as of June 30, accounting for approximately 11% of the total assets of China's banking industry [6][9] - Jiangsu Bank's total assets reached 4.8 trillion yuan, exceeding Beijing Bank by over 1 billion yuan, marking it as the top city commercial bank in terms of asset scale [7][8] Profitability - The net profit rankings for large banks, joint-stock banks, and rural commercial banks remained unchanged, while city commercial banks experienced significant shifts [11] - Guizhou Bank's revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year to 6.5 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in net interest margin [10][11]