国信证券《全球十年复盘：哪些银行可以跑出超额收益》报告，通过分析2015-2025年全球17个市场154家银行样本，揭示银行板块投资核心逻辑，指出我国 银行估值低估及修复潜力，给出投资建议。 从全球银行指数表现看，经济基本面是核心驱动。2015年初至2025年9月，印度、美国银行指数领涨，累计涨幅196%、147%，受益于经济强劲增长；日 本、欧洲银行指数2015-2019年低迷，2021年后因退出零/负利率、经济复苏，累计涨幅140%、60%，PB分别修复至1.08x、1.26x；韩国银行指数PB长期低于 0.5x，2024年底降息后修复至0.65x；申万银行指数涨幅18%，PB 0.53x，因我国经济结构转型承压，市场预期悲观。分阶段看，美国、印度银行指数两阶段 均获绝对收益，日本、欧洲、韩国2020年后逆袭，我国银行指数两阶段涨幅小，2020年后仅涨5.7%。 个股层面，超六成样本行跑赢本国大盘，1/3跑赢标普500指数。经济高增国家/地区银行表现突出，越南3家样本行涨幅531%-584%，阿联酋、以色列样本行 悉数跑赢；美国优质大行（摩根大通涨574%）及特色银行（第一公民银行涨668%）领先；日本大 ...

核心结论：不要低估我国经济韧性，银行估值修复空间大 Ø 全球视角，银行板块投资核心是宏观经济，优质银行个股具备较好中长期投资价值；精选个股往往需要结合经济结构、市场环境、政策 监管等多种因素。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 银行指数视角：（1）美国和印度的银行指数PB估值持续处在较高水平，且美国和印度的银行指数在过去十年不同阶段均取得了不错的 绝对收益，主要是两国经济增长延续强劲增长态势，但2020年以来的行情中两国银行指数都没有超额收益。（2）日本和欧洲的银行指数 在2015-2019年表现欠佳，但2021年以来获得了不错的绝对收益和超额收益，主要是政策刺激下日本和欧洲走出零利率/负利率时代，经 济呈现出复苏态势，当前日本和欧洲银行指数PB值分别为1.08x和1.26x。（3）韩国银行指数PB值常年处在0.5x之下，2024年底以来有所 修复，当前PB值约修复至0.65x。（4）申万银行指数近年来涨幅明显落后，当前PB值约0.53x，我们判断主要是我国经济在结构转型大背 景下，近年来经济处在承压运行期，导致市场预期较为悲观。 • 银行个股视角：我们统计的17个市场的154家样本行中有10 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights the performance of 42 listed banks in A-shares as of September 1, with no significant changes in the rankings of state-owned and joint-stock banks in terms of total market value, asset scale, revenue, and net profit compared to the end of last year or the same period last year [1] - Jiangsu Bank has emerged as the leading city commercial bank in total assets, surpassing Beijing Bank, while Nanjing Bank has climbed to the third position among city commercial banks [6][7] Market Value and Revenue - The overall market value of listed banks has generally recovered, with the price-to-book ratio rising from 0.57 at the end of last year to 0.64 by the end of August [3] - Agricultural Bank of China has shown significant stock price growth, with its market value nearing that of Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, with a market value of 2.46 trillion yuan, only 715 billion yuan higher than Agricultural Bank [4] - Minsheng Bank's revenue increased by nearly 8% year-on-year, ranking first among state-owned and joint-stock banks, with a revenue of 724 billion yuan [10] Asset Scale - Agricultural Bank's total assets have grown rapidly, surpassing China Construction Bank, with a total asset scale of 52.3 trillion yuan as of June 30, accounting for approximately 11% of the total assets of China's banking industry [6][9] - Jiangsu Bank's total assets reached 4.8 trillion yuan, exceeding Beijing Bank by over 1 billion yuan, marking it as the top city commercial bank in terms of asset scale [7][8] Profitability - The net profit rankings for large banks, joint-stock banks, and rural commercial banks remained unchanged, while city commercial banks experienced significant shifts [11] - Guizhou Bank's revenue decreased by 12% year-on-year to 6.5 billion yuan, primarily due to a decline in net interest margin [10][11]

Group 1 - The A-share market has shown a steady slow bull trend this year, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points and aiming for 4000 points, highlighting the importance of the banking sector as a pillar of the market [1] - In the current complex macroeconomic environment, the banking sector's stable cash flow, high dividend yield, and strong support for the real economy are crucial for the market's steady progress, making banks with low valuations increasingly attractive [1] - Ping An Bank has come into focus due to its unique operational strategy and growth potential [1] Group 2 - Ping An Bank's 2025 semi-annual report revealed operating income of 69.385 billion yuan and net profit of 24.870 billion yuan, with both core financial metrics showing a year-on-year decline, although the decline has narrowed compared to the first quarter [2] - The bank's net interest margin for the first half of 2025 was 1.80%, down 16 basis points year-on-year, impacted by the overall interest rate decline in the banking sector [2] - Despite the decline, Ping An Bank's net interest margin remains above the average of 1.55% for joint-stock banks, demonstrating strong risk resistance and operational resilience [2] Group 3 - Ping An Bank has shifted its focus from scale expansion to balancing quality and quantity, which is significant for asset quality improvement [3] - As of the end of June, the bank's non-performing loan ratio was 1.05%, a slight year-on-year decrease, indicating effective credit risk management [3] - The bank's core tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, and total capital adequacy ratio were 9.31%, 10.85%, and 13.26%, respectively, showing solid foundations for future growth [3] Group 4 - The persistent issue of banks trading below their net asset value has been a concern, but improvements in asset quality and performance growth can lead to value recovery [5] - Ping An Bank's ongoing improvements in asset quality provide a solid foundation for performance growth and risk resistance, creating favorable conditions for valuation re-evaluation [5][6] Group 5 - Despite pressures in retail banking due to insufficient credit demand, Ping An Bank is committed to transforming its retail business, focusing on wealth management [7] - The bank's wealth management fee income reached 2.466 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.8% [7] - The bank has also adjusted its credit resource allocation strategy to enhance corporate business, with corporate customer numbers increasing by 6.5% [8] Group 6 - Ping An Bank's valuation remains relatively low, with a price-to-book ratio of 0.53 as of August 22, indicating potential for valuation recovery as asset quality continues to improve [8] - The bank's focus on quality growth rather than scale expansion positions it favorably for future performance and valuation re-evaluation [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the banking sector, indicating a potential stabilization of ROE and a favorable investment environment for bank stocks [3][6]. Core Viewpoints - The banking sector is expected to enter a new cycle of stable ROE, with the average ROE projected to stabilize around 10% by the end of 2024, following a decline from over 20% in 2013 [3][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining stable bank profits to support the economy and prevent systemic risks, highlighting that bank profits are crucial for fiscal support and capital replenishment [4][5]. - The report argues against the common misconception that declining ROE will continue indefinitely, attributing past declines to regulatory changes rather than a linear trend [3][7]. Summary by Sections Banking Sector Overview - The banking sector is described as the backbone of the economy, with profits primarily reinvested into the real economy through credit and capital replenishment [5][8]. - The report notes a decline in the core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio for listed banks, indicating pressure on internal capital strength [11]. ROE Analysis - The report discusses the balance between profitability, risk, and capital in determining ROE, emphasizing the need for stable bank performance to support economic stability [5][6]. - It provides a detailed analysis of ROE trends, showing a decline from 20.7% in 2010 to an estimated 10% by 2024, influenced by regulatory changes and market conditions [7][31]. Profitability and Cost Management - The report highlights that banks have been managing profitability through cost control and provisioning strategies, with a shift from relying solely on provisions to maintaining revenue stability [6][14]. - It predicts a stabilization of net interest margins in the near term, with potential recovery in 2026 as deposit costs decrease [6][25]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies specific banks with strong regional performance and stable profit growth as attractive investment opportunities, recommending banks like Chongqing Bank, Suzhou Bank, and Hangzhou Bank for their potential to recover to 1x PB [6][28]. - It also points out that the banking sector's current PE valuation is significantly undervalued compared to its ROE, suggesting a potential for valuation recovery [6][28]. Long-term Projections - The report estimates that to maintain a stable core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio, banks need to sustain an ROE of approximately 10% over the next five years, with varying loan growth scenarios [18][22]. - It emphasizes that a slowdown in loan growth does not necessarily equate to lower ROE, as seen in comparisons with international banks [27][28].

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the banking sector is experiencing a gradual improvement in performance, with narrowing declines in interest margins and stable asset quality in the second quarter [1] Group 1: Banking Sector Performance - The banking sector's interest margin decline has narrowed, and asset quality remains stable, leading to an improvement in performance growth [1] - It is expected that the trend of gradual improvement will continue in the subsequent quarters of the year [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent pullback in the sector is attributed to style and funding factors [1] - The overall performance in 2025 is anticipated to be relatively stable, with the annual trend being more influenced by valuation fluctuations rather than fundamental changes [1] Group 3: Valuation and Investment Outlook - The banking sector is still undergoing a revaluation of net assets from a medium-term perspective [1] - In the short term, without sustained inflows of allocation-type funds, there may be volatility driven by market style affecting trading-type funds [1] - There remains potential for recovery in the sector until valuations exceed 1 times net assets, indicating that absolute returns are still expected [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share listed banks have reported strong performance in their semi-annual reports, with significant growth in net profit and improved asset quality across multiple institutions [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Zhangjiagang Bank reported a total operating income of 2.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.74%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 762 million yuan, up 27.76% year-on-year [2]. - As of August 10, 2022, 12 listed banks have disclosed their semi-annual performance, all showing double-digit growth in net profit [2][3]. - Jiangyin Bank achieved the highest year-on-year growth in operating income at 25.96%, while Zijin Bank had the lowest at 2.64% [3]. Group 2: Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio for Zhangjiagang Bank decreased by 0.05 percentage points to 0.90% as of June 30, 2022 [2]. - Among the 12 listed banks, Hangzhou Bank had the lowest NPL ratio at 0.79%, while Jiangyin Bank showed the most significant improvement, with a decrease of 0.34 percentage points to 0.98% [3][4]. Group 3: Provision Coverage - The provision coverage ratio increased for 10 out of 12 banks, with Hangzhou Bank, Changshu Bank, Zhangjiagang Bank, Wuxi Bank, and Suzhou Bank exceeding 500% [4]. - Jiangyin Bank and Suzhou Bank saw significant increases in their provision coverage ratios, rising by 165.46 percentage points and 82.02 percentage points, respectively [4]. Group 4: Market Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the valuation recovery of the banking sector, citing stable net interest margins and improved asset quality as key factors [5][6]. - The overall performance of listed banks is expected to remain robust, with a focus on regional banks benefiting from economic recovery and increased financing demand [6].

Group 1: Overall Performance of Listed Banks - Multiple A-share listed banks reported strong performance for 2022, with net profit growth exceeding 25% for several banks, including Ping An Bank, Changshu Bank, Wuxi Bank, and Zhangjiagang Bank [1] - The profitability of banks is driven by improved asset quality and declining credit costs, indicating potential for sustained high growth in the coming years [1] Group 2: Specific Bank Performance - China Merchants Bank ("CMB") achieved a revenue of 344.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.08%, and a net profit of 138.01 billion yuan, up 15.08% [2] - CMB's total assets surpassed 1 trillion yuan for the first time, reaching approximately 10.14 trillion yuan, a growth of 9.6% from the previous year [2] - Ping An Bank reported a revenue of 179.90 billion yuan, a 6.2% increase, and a net profit of 45.52 billion yuan, up 25.3% [3] - Changshu Bank's revenue was 8.81 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.74 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.06% and 25.41% increase, respectively [4] - Wuxi Bank achieved a total revenue of 4.48 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, with increases of 3.04% and 26.65% [4] Group 3: Asset Quality and Risk Management - CMB's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio slightly increased to 0.96%, while its provision coverage ratio decreased to 450.79% [2] - Ping An Bank's NPL ratio rose to 1.05%, with a provision coverage ratio of 290.28% [3] - Both Changshu Bank and Wuxi Bank maintained NPL ratios of 0.81%, with strong provision coverage ratios exceeding 530% [5] Group 4: Market Outlook and Valuation - The stock prices of banks that reported positive earnings have seen recovery, with CMB's market capitalization exceeding 1 trillion yuan [6] - Analysts expect significant valuation recovery for quality banks, particularly as real estate risks are resolved [6] - There is a positive outlook for regional banks with strong operational capabilities and high growth in revenue and net profit, alongside favorable asset quality metrics [6]

Core Viewpoint - A significant number of listed banks in China are distributing cash dividends, with 37 out of 42 A-share listed banks having completed their annual dividend distributions by July 16, 2024, totaling 632.6 billion yuan, marking a 3.1% increase year-on-year [2][5][11]. Dividend Distribution - The total cash dividends distributed by 42 A-share listed banks for 2024 amount to 632.6 billion yuan, with Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and China Construction Bank (CCB) leading with 109.77 billion yuan and 100.75 billion yuan respectively [2][5][7]. - Notably, Zhengzhou Bank has the lowest total dividend of 18.2 million yuan, with a dividend rate of only 9.69%, the lowest among the listed banks [2][6][11]. Timing of Dividend Payments - Several banks, including SPDB and Ningbo Bank, have advanced their dividend payment dates, with SPDB distributing dividends on July 16 and Ningbo Bank distributing 5.943 billion yuan [3][4]. - Traditionally, annual dividends are distributed between June and July, but this year, four state-owned banks completed their distributions earlier, in April and May [4][5]. Year-on-Year Comparison - Among the 42 listed banks, only three banks saw a decline in their total dividend amounts compared to 2023: Zhejiang Commercial Bank, Minsheng Bank, and Ping An Bank, with declines of 4.88%, 11.11%, and 15.44% respectively [9][10]. - Conversely, 34 banks experienced an increase in their dividend amounts, with the highest growth seen in Zhengzhou Bank, which had no dividends in 2023 but distributed 18.2 million yuan in 2024 [9][10]. Future Dividend Plans - Many banks have outlined their cash dividend targets for 2025, with plans to distribute at least 30% of their net profits as cash dividends annually [12].

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou Bank's largest shareholder, Suzhou International Development Group, has significantly increased its stake in the bank, indicating confidence in the bank's future performance and potential for further investment [1][2][6]. Group 1: Shareholding Changes - Suzhou International Development Group has acquired a total of 118 million shares of Suzhou Bank from January 14 to June 26, representing 2.63% of the bank's total share capital, with an investment of 856 million yuan [1]. - The group has exceeded its initial plan of a 300 million yuan increase, raising its total shareholding to 14.7292% when combined with its concerted action partner, Dongwu Securities [2][6]. - The bank has received approval from the Jiangsu Financial Regulatory Bureau for the change in shareholding, suggesting that the group may aim to surpass a 15% stake [3][5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - As of the end of March, Suzhou Bank reported total assets of 727.154 billion yuan, a 4.82% increase from the beginning of the year, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.83% [7]. - The bank's first-quarter revenue was 3.25 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.76%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.554 billion yuan, up 6.80% year-on-year [7]. Group 3: Convertible Bonds and Market Trends - The bank's convertible bond, "Suzhou Bank Convertible Bond," has triggered a mandatory redemption clause due to a stock price increase of over 30% in 2024, indicating strong market performance [9]. - The total share capital of Suzhou Bank is expected to increase to approximately 3.98 billion shares by January 20, 2025, due to the conversion of convertible bonds [10]. - The trend of shareholders increasing their stakes through convertible bond conversions has been observed in other banks, reflecting a broader recovery in the banking sector's valuation [11].