丨证券研究报告丨 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 公司研究丨点评报告丨杭州银行（600926.SH） [Table_Title] 机构减持影响有限，价值重估方向清晰 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 杭州银行公告中国人寿拟未来三个月内通过集中竞价或大宗交易的方式减持不超过 0.70%股 份。中国人寿投资杭州银行长达 16 年，持有长期回报丰厚，预计此次减持主要基于自身经营 管理及资产配置需要，对股价影响有限。2024 年 8 月已公告过中国人寿减持计划，通过集中竞 价减持 1%的股份，本次减持的股份是上次减持未完成的部分，规模占比较低，预计对股价影 响有限。杭州银行是银行股的利润增速龙头和资产质量冠军，近期可转债已完成转股，对股价 影响出清，中长期高 ROE 优势可持续，坚定看好价值重估。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 杭州银行（600926.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 机构减 ...

银行股已经涨很久了，截止目前，工行反超美国银行，高居全球商业银行第二位，四大行加招商总市值逼近10万亿大关，与摩根大通等美国五大银 行差距不足2万亿。 周五行情，A股银行板块上演了一出戏剧性的变脸行情。上午还是"大牛市冲冲冲"，"你们是打不败工行的"的狂欢声此起彼伏，下午随着银行股集体 跳水，投资者的调侃又变成了"山顶资本"。 到了周末，雪球app里关于银行股的谈论依然很多：银行股是否真的迎来了历史大顶，还是回调后会再出发？ 01 A股银行的市值狂飙 工行反超美国银行，高居全球商业银行第二位 周五上午，四大行领涨大盘，工商银行高开高走，再度刷新历史纪录，今年以来累计大涨逾22%，农业银行、建设银行、中国银行也均创历史新 高。工商银行一度上涨3.34%，最高报8.36元/股，总市值超过2.7万亿元，稳居A股一哥地位。 | 工商银行 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 601398 休市 07-11 15:00:00 北京 | | | | | | | 8.01 -0.07 -0.87% | | | 57.23万人加自选 率 ( | | | | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in bank stocks, driven by low interest rates, high dividends, stable performance, and market management policies, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high of 3555 points in early July 2023 [1][2] - Since the beginning of the year, bank stocks have shown strong performance, with the banking sector's increase exceeding 50% since the "924 market" [1][2] - The decline in deposit rates, with 3-year and 5-year rates dropping below 2% and 1-year rates around 1%, contrasts sharply with bank dividend yields ranging from 3% to 7%, making bank stocks attractive [2] Group 2 - Major buyers of bank stocks include insurance funds, which held A-share bank stocks worth 265.78 billion yuan as of Q1 2023, accounting for nearly half of their heavy industry allocation [3] - Public funds have also increased their holdings in the banking sector, with active funds raising their bank stock ratios and passive index funds adding over 50 billion yuan to bank stocks this year [3] - The global banking sector has also seen significant gains, with indices in various regions, including the US, Europe, and China, rising between 49% and 88% since the beginning of 2024, indicating a broader trend beyond A-shares [3]

Group 1 - The banking sector continues to show strength, with major banks like Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, and others reaching historical highs on July 10 [1] - The Bank AH Preferred ETF (517900) has seen a net inflow of 610 million yuan since the beginning of the year, with a share increase of 474%, leading among bank ETFs [3] - The total dividend payout for the 2024 fiscal year from major banks is expected to exceed 620 billion yuan, with significant contributions from the four major banks [4][5] Group 2 - Southbound funds have been actively purchasing bank stocks, with a net buy of 9.256 billion HKD on July 9, indicating strong demand [7][8] - The net buying amounts from southbound funds over the past month, three months, and year are 26.3 billion yuan, 75.5 billion yuan, and 211.5 billion yuan respectively, leading among all sectors [9] - Analysts suggest that the current banking stock market reflects a trend of value reassessment, with expectations of stable fundamentals supporting continued institutional investment [9] Group 3 - The Bank AH Index, which includes both A-shares and H-shares, has shown a cumulative increase of 101.8% since its inception, outperforming other indices [11][13] - The H-shares of 14 banks have higher dividend yields compared to their A-share counterparts, indicating a "higher yield, lower valuation" phenomenon [10][11] - The banking sector is characterized by a "weak cycle" in both fundamentals and investment, with stable dividend yields providing attractive investment opportunities [4][6]

行业研究丨深度报告丨银行 [Table_Title] 价值重估的下半场 ——银行业 2025 年度中期投资策略 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 银行股目前仍处于价值重估的趋势中。我们认为行情实质性反映的是对于基本面稳定性的预期 偏差。近年来银行的盈利韧性持续超预期，主要源于监管政策托底，城投/地产/资本等重大风险 底线确立。本质在于我国银行作为准财政货币工具，具备显著的系统重要性，股息分红构成重 要财政收入。基本面稳定是红利价值重估、机构持续加仓的核心基础，2025 年净息差正在筑 底，资产质量稳定，区域银行业绩增速领先。当前继续重点推荐优质城商行和高股息红利银行。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 马祥云 盛悦菲 盈利何以维持稳定？净息差正在筑底+政策托底资产质量 我们预计 2025 年起金融让利将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share financial sector has shown significant growth, with the banking index reaching new highs, driven by various factors including low valuations and expected future performance improvements [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On May 14, the A-share financial sector collectively surged, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high since April 8, marking a 3.99% increase in the non-bank financial index and a 0.82% rise in the banking index, which closed at 4227.96 points, the highest since February 2021 [1]. - The total market capitalization of A-share banks surpassed 10 trillion yuan, reaching 100270.09 billion yuan, with notable banks like Industrial and Commercial Bank of China nearing a market cap of 20000 billion yuan [1]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The banking sector has seen a substantial increase, with the banking index rising over 34% in 2024, making it the top performer among major sectors, and an 8% increase year-to-date, ranking fifth [2]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced an action plan to promote high-quality development of public funds, encouraging a shift from focusing on scale to prioritizing returns, which may further enhance the valuation of bank stocks [2]. Group 3: Valuation and Future Performance - The banking sector is characterized by low valuations, with an average price-to-book ratio (PB) of only 0.62, indicating strong long-term investment potential [2]. - Future performance expectations are positive, with projections for stable revenue and net profit growth by 2025, driven by improved credit structures and reduced risk in retail banking [3]. Group 4: Institutional Investment - Despite the banking sector's high market capitalization, institutional investment remains relatively low, with public funds holding bank stocks valued at 1.85 trillion yuan, significantly less than the electronic sector [4]. - As of the first quarter of 2025, the proportion of active equity funds invested in bank stocks was only 3.75%, indicating a continued underweight position compared to other sectors [4]. Group 5: Financial Metrics - The banking sector is recognized for its low valuation and high dividend yield, with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio below 6.5 and a dividend yield of 6.4%, ranking second among major sectors [5]. - The asset quality of the banking sector is improving, with non-performing loans decreasing to 3.28 trillion yuan and a non-performing loan ratio of 1.50% as of the end of Q4 2024 [6]. - The net interest margin for the banking sector was 1.52% at the end of Q4 2024, with expectations for stabilization following a period of decline [7].