记者丨 林汉垚 见习记者冯紫彤 编辑丨曾芳 随着2026年日益临近，银行股的业绩走向与结构分化逻辑再次成为机构研报的核心议题。 作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，银行业的经营环境与投资逻辑将如何演变？对于投资者而言， 机会藏于何处？ 近期，多家券商密集发布年度展望，普遍认为在宏观政策托底、息差有望筑底以及存量风险持 续缓释的背景下，2026年上市银行整体业绩大概率将步入温和修复通道。 然而，几乎所有机构都同时强调，行业内部的结构性分化将成为未来一年的主旋律，马太效应 加剧，具备独特客户优势、负债成本管控能力或特定区域禀赋的银行，将有望领跑新一轮周 期。 业绩温和修复成共识，内部分化已成定局 对于2026年的行业整体业绩走势，机构观点呈现出显著共识。多数研报判断，得益于息差收窄 压力的缓解和财富管理等中收业务的增长，上市银行营收与净利润将告别低迷，实现小幅正增 长，步入温和的修复通道。 然而，这并非一次普惠式的回暖，"分化"成为各机构策略报告中最高频的关键词之一。 机构普遍指出，银行业增长驱动逻辑正在发生根本性转变，从同质化的规模扩张，转向依赖客 户黏性、业务结构和经营效率的差异化竞争。那些在结算业务、财富管理领域 ...

随着2026年日益临近，银行股的业绩走向与结构分化逻辑再次成为机构研报的核心议题。 作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，银行业的经营环境与投资逻辑将如何演变？对于投资者而言，机会藏于 何处？ 然而，这并非一次普惠式的回暖，"分化"成为各机构策略报告中最高频的关键词之一。 机构普遍指出，银行业增长驱动逻辑正在发生根本性转变，从同质化的规模扩张，转向依赖客户黏性、 业务结构和经营效率的差异化竞争。那些在结算业务、财富管理领域建立护城河的大型银行，与部分深 耕优质区域的城农商行，其业绩回暖的幅度和确定性将显著强于同业。 近期，多家券商密集发布年度展望，普遍认为在宏观政策托底、息差有望筑底以及存量风险持续缓释的 背景下，2026年上市银行整体业绩大概率将步入温和修复通道。 然而，几乎所有机构都同时强调，行业内部的结构性分化将成为未来一年的主旋律，马太效应加剧，具 备独特客户优势、负债成本管控能力或特定区域禀赋的银行，将有望领跑新一轮周期。 业绩温和修复成共识，内部分化已成定局 对于2026年的行业整体业绩走势，机构观点呈现出显著共识。多数研报判断，得益于息差收窄压力的缓 解和财富管理等中收业务的增长，上市银行营收与净利润将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent capital inflow into Nanjing Bank reflects a significant trend of shareholder increases across various banks, indicating a growing confidence in the banking sector's long-term value and stability [2][3][9] Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Nanjing Gaoke Co., Ltd. increased its stake in Nanjing Bank to 9.99% by investing approximately 1.684 billion yuan, marking the second major increase for the bank this year [2][3] - BNP Paribas raised its holdings in Nanjing Bank to 17.02% by acquiring 108 million shares, signaling international capital's endorsement of the bank's fundamentals [3] - Other banks, including Qingdao Bank, Suzhou Bank, Chengdu Bank, and Chongqing Bank, have also seen significant shareholder increases, showcasing a broader trend in the banking sector [2][5][7] Group 2: Capital Composition - The capital influx into Nanjing Bank includes contributions from foreign investors, domestic listed companies, and local state-owned enterprises, indicating a rare alignment of interests among diverse capital sources [3][4] - Local state-owned capital, such as Jiangsu Transportation Holding Co., Ltd., has optimized its shareholding structure by transferring shares to enhance management efficiency [4] Group 3: Market Trends - The trend of shareholder increases in 2025 is characterized by a diverse range of investors, including local state-owned platforms, central state-owned enterprises, foreign QFII, and industrial capital [8] - The banking sector is experiencing a shift in valuation logic, with investors increasingly focusing on structural advantages such as customer base, regional economic resilience, and asset quality stability [9] - The current market environment is transitioning from speculative trading to a focus on stable returns, positioning bank stocks as attractive investments for long-term capital [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has seen a significant rise in its A-share price, achieving a historical high and a "14 consecutive days of gains" phenomenon, driven by both sector-wide recovery and individual bank characteristics [2][3][8] Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 22, ABC's A-share price increased by 2.66% to 8.09 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 2.75 trillion yuan, making it the highest-valued company in A-shares [2] - Over the past 14 trading days, ABC's stock has risen over 23%, and its year-to-date increase exceeds 58%, leading the A-share banking sector [3] - ABC's price-to-book (PB) ratio has returned to 1.06, surpassing that of China Merchants Bank, with both banks being the only ones among 42 A-share listed banks to exceed a PB of 1 [3] Group 2: Market Factors - The banking sector is experiencing a recovery, characterized by high dividends and strong defensive attributes, attracting funds as market conditions shift [3][8] - Long-term funds have shown a preference for banking stocks, particularly in the context of rising risk aversion among investors [8][10] Group 3: Individual Bank Characteristics - ABC has unique advantages in county-level lending and asset structure, positively impacting its performance metrics such as profit growth, interest margins, and asset quality [2][6] - The bank's county-level loan balance has surpassed 10 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 41% of its domestic loan portfolio, with a low non-performing loan ratio of 1.2% [7] - ABC's net profit has increased by 2.5% year-on-year, leading among state-owned banks, providing a solid foundation for its stock price [7][8] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the banking sector will enter a favorable investment period, with a 70% probability of generating absolute returns from November to December [8][9] - Factors supporting the banking sector's recovery include approaching dividend distribution, stabilization of interest rates, and ongoing policy support aimed at enhancing liquidity and optimizing asset structures [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) has seen a significant rise in its A-share price, reaching a historical high and achieving a "14 consecutive days of gains" milestone, driven by both sector-wide recovery and the bank's unique strengths in county-level lending and asset structure [1][2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of October 22, ABC's A-share price increased by 2.66% to 8.09 yuan per share, with a total market capitalization of 2.75 trillion yuan, making it the highest-valued company in A-shares [1]. - ABC's stock has experienced a cumulative increase of over 23% in the last 14 trading days and over 58% year-to-date, leading the A-share banking sector [1][2]. - The price-to-book (PB) ratio for ABC has returned to 1.06, indicating a strong valuation compared to other banks, with only ABC and China Merchants Bank having a PB over 1 among 42 A-share listed banks [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The overall recovery of the banking sector, characterized by high dividends and strong defensive attributes, has attracted significant capital, particularly from long-term investors [2][6]. - ABC's unique characteristics, such as its advantages in county-level lending and asset quality, have positively impacted its performance metrics, including net interest margin and asset quality [2][3][4]. Group 3: County-Level Financial Services - ABC has a robust county-level financial network, with 56.6% of its branches located in these areas, and county loans exceeding 10 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 41% of its domestic loan portfolio [4]. - The bank's county-level loans have shown a growth rate of 9.3%, with a low non-performing loan ratio of 1.2%, which is better than the industry average [4][5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The banking sector is entering a favorable investment period, with expectations of strong performance in the fourth quarter and early next year due to seasonal trends and a shift in investor preferences towards defensive stocks [6][7]. - Analysts predict that the upcoming dividend distribution and a stable interest rate environment will further enhance the attractiveness of bank stocks, including ABC [7].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector demonstrates resilience amid a declining market, with several banks, including Agricultural Bank of China, reaching historical highs, indicating strong investor interest in bank stocks as a safe haven [1][7]. Group 1: Market Performance - Agricultural Bank of China saw an intraday increase of over 2%, closing up 1.74%, while other banks like Xiamen Bank and Qingdao Bank also rose by more than 2% [1]. - The Bank ETF (512800) experienced a brief intraday surge of nearly 1% before closing down 0.12%, maintaining a seven-day upward trend with a total trading volume of 2.922 billion yuan [1][3]. - The Bank ETF has attracted significant capital inflow, with a net inflow of 4.854 billion yuan over the past seven days, bringing its total size close to 20 billion yuan, setting a new historical high [5]. Group 2: Investment Drivers - The banking sector is benefiting from multiple catalysts, including heightened market risk aversion, leading investors to seek stable, high-dividend bank stocks [7]. - Continued government policies aimed at economic stability are fostering expectations of recovery, which directly benefits the banking sector due to its close ties to economic cycles [7]. - Historical trends suggest that the fourth quarter is typically a favorable period for undervalued, high-dividend large-cap stocks, potentially enhancing the appeal of bank stocks [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the banking sector will become a key focus in the current market phase, with defensive asset allocation driving demand for bank stocks [8]. - The stability of bank dividends and the recent price corrections have improved the attractiveness of bank stocks, likely drawing in risk-averse capital [8]. - The Bank ETF (512800) and its associated funds are effective tools for tracking the overall performance of the banking sector, comprising 42 listed banks in A-shares [8].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance in the stock market, with significant gains in share prices and a favorable outlook for future earnings, despite concerns about potential risks in the industry [1][3][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of early August, the A-share banking sector saw all 42 listed banks' stocks rise, with 15 stocks increasing by over 2% [1]. - The China Securities Banking Index has accumulated a 13.90% increase year-to-date, indicating a robust performance across the sector [1]. - Agricultural Bank of China reached a record high closing price of 6.62 yuan, with a market capitalization of 2.11 trillion yuan [1]. Group 2: Earnings and Risks - Many listed banks reported lower-than-expected earnings in Q1, with declining net interest margins and rising non-performing loan ratios, raising concerns about future dividend capabilities [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the pressure on net interest margins will persist into Q1 2025, with new non-performing loans primarily arising from retail banking [2]. Group 3: Factors Driving Bank Stocks - Increased demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainty has led to greater institutional investment in bank stocks, which are viewed as defensive [3]. - The banking sector offers a high dividend yield, with a median yield of 4.35% over the past 12 months, making it more attractive compared to low-yielding government bonds [3]. - Strong earnings reports from banks like Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank, with revenue growth of 7.91% and 3.89% respectively, highlight the sector's profitability [3]. Group 4: Shareholder and Management Actions - Several banks have seen significant share purchases by shareholders and executives, which is expected to bolster stock prices [4]. - For instance, Nanjing Bank's major shareholder increased their stake from 8.94% to 9% by purchasing over 750,000 shares [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the current banking stock rally is driven by dividend yield logic, but caution that if yields approach risk-free rates, the attractiveness of bank stocks may diminish [7]. - The overall performance of bank stocks is expected to improve as the year progresses, with potential for earnings growth and stabilization of net interest margins [7][8]. - The market anticipates a rotation between high and low valuation banks, but sustained low price-to-book ratios could hinder this rotation and affect overall sector performance [8].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector has shown strong performance in August, with significant stock price increases and a positive outlook for future earnings, despite concerns about potential risks and declining net interest margins [1][3][5]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The A-share banking sector saw all 42 stocks rise on August 5, with 15 stocks increasing by over 2% [1]. - Agricultural Bank reached a record closing price of 6.62 yuan, raising its market capitalization to 2.11 trillion yuan [1]. - The China Securities Banking Index has accumulated a 13.90% increase year-to-date as of August 7 [1]. Group 2: Earnings and Risks - Many listed banks reported lower-than-expected earnings in Q1, with declining net interest margins and rising non-performing loan ratios [1][2]. - Analysts express concerns about the sustainability of stock price increases due to potential declines in asset quality and dividend capabilities [1][2]. Group 3: Factors Driving Bank Stocks - Increased demand for defensive assets amid economic uncertainty has made bank stocks attractive [3]. - The banking sector offers a median dividend yield of 4.35%, making it more appealing compared to low-yielding government bonds [3]. - Strong earnings reports from banks like Ningbo Bank and Hangzhou Bank indicate robust profitability, with significant year-on-year revenue growth [3]. Group 4: Shareholder and Management Actions - Several banks' shareholders and executives have been actively buying shares to support stock prices, with notable increases in ownership percentages [4]. - For instance, Nanjing Bank's shareholder increased their stake from 8.94% to 9% by purchasing over 750,000 shares [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current banking stock rally is driven by dividend yield logic, which may be challenged if yields approach risk-free rates [7]. - The overall performance of bank stocks is expected to improve as the year progresses, with potential for earnings growth and stabilization of net interest margins [6][7]. - The market anticipates a rotation between high and low valuation banks, but sustained low price-to-book ratios could hinder this dynamic [8].

Core Viewpoint - The banking sector in A-shares has seen significant growth, with various banks and ETFs reaching new highs, reflecting a broader positive trend in global banking stocks [1][5][8]. Group 1: A-share Banking Sector Performance - Agricultural Bank of China saw its stock price rise over 2%, reaching a new high, with other banks like Shanghai Pudong Development Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China also experiencing gains [1]. - The A-share banking sector has increased by 15% this year, with the招商银行AH优选ETF rising by 20% [1][3]. - Multiple bank ETFs, including 易方达 and 华夏, have shown year-to-date increases ranging from 15% to 20% [1][3]. Group 2: Global Banking Sector Trends - Global banking stocks are reaching new highs, with European banks experiencing a resurgence, marking a significant turnaround from previous market perceptions [5][6]. - The European Stoxx 600 Bank Index has surged by 29% in the first half of the year, achieving its best performance in nearly 28 years, with a total increase of 34% year-to-date [7]. - The global banking sector has seen an overall increase of 52% since the beginning of 2024, with specific regional performances showing substantial gains: 49% in the US, 65% in Europe, 53% in Japan, and 59% in China [9][10]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Banking Sector Growth - The rise in long-term interest rates and improved economic outlooks have contributed to the growth of banking stocks, particularly in Europe [7][16]. - The global macroeconomic environment, characterized by low growth and increased policy uncertainty, has led to a revaluation of banks as stable, dividend-paying assets [16]. - The banking sector's performance is attributed to the effects of global monetary easing, which has made banks more valuable as they serve as a reservoir for capital [15].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Buy" and is maintained [9]. Core Views - The report indicates that the impact of China Life's planned share reduction of up to 0.70% is limited, primarily driven by its own asset allocation needs, and is not expected to significantly affect the stock price [2][6]. - Hangzhou Bank is recognized as a leader in profit growth among bank stocks and has superior asset quality, with a sustainable high ROE advantage in the medium to long term [2][12]. - The completion of the convertible bond conversion has cleared its impact on the stock price, paving the way for a new round of valuation recovery [12]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On July 15, it was announced that China Life plans to reduce its holdings by no more than 50.79 million shares, representing 0.70% of the total share capital, through centralized bidding or block trading within three months [6]. Event Commentary - The report emphasizes that the reduction in shares by China Life is minor and does not indicate a shift in insurance capital allocation strategies towards bank stocks. The bank's fundamentals remain strong, with a stable non-performing loan ratio of 0.76% and a provision coverage ratio of 530%, the highest in the industry [12][12]. - The bank's asset quality and profit growth are expected to continue leading the industry, supported by a robust economic environment in Zhejiang province, where infrastructure investment and loan growth are significantly above national averages [12]. Financial Data and Forecasts - For 2024, total assets are projected to reach approximately 2.11 trillion yuan, with net profit expected to grow to around 16.98 billion yuan. The bank's net interest income is forecasted to increase to 24.46 billion yuan in 2024 [28]. - The report anticipates a stable performance post-conversion of the convertible bonds, with a projected ROE of 15.6% for 2025, maintaining a competitive edge in the industry [12][28].