Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The second round of interest rate cuts has begun, similar to the period from April to June 2020, highlighting the importance of the silver-gold ratio recovery and the elasticity of silver [2][4] - Inflation data met expectations while consumer confidence hit a new low, increasing the probability of interest rate cuts [4] - In the base metals sector, while the interest rate cut benefits are being realized, concerns about natural demand have led to a decline in industrial metals, except for copper, which saw price increases due to supply disruptions [4][5] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the recovery of the silver-gold ratio and the potential for silver to gain elasticity as inflation expectations rise [4] - It suggests that during the initial phase of the interest rate cut cycle, gold prices are expected to continue a volatile upward trend, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% probability in December [4] - Recommendations include increasing allocations to gold stocks in anticipation of a quarterly resonance in price, valuation, and style [4][5] Industrial Metals - The report notes that copper prices have surged due to supply shocks, particularly from the Grasberg copper mine accident, which is expected to impact sales by nearly 200,000 tons by Q4 2025 and reduce production by 270,000 tons in 2026 [4][5] - Overall, industrial metals have seen a decline, but copper has risen by 3.2% on the SHFE and 2.1% on the LME due to supply constraints [4][22] Strategic Metals - The report highlights the long-term bullish outlook for cobalt prices due to the implementation of an export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which will lead to a global cobalt market shortage from 2025 to 2027 [5] - It also discusses the strategic importance of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on the increasing demand and price support for rare earth materials [5] Market Performance - The report indicates that the metal materials and mining sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 2.60% increase compared to a 0.21% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index [13][16] - Specific stocks in the copper and aluminum sectors are highlighted for their growth potential, with recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zijin Mining [5][20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [9] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of the silver-gold ratio and the simultaneous rise in copper and aluminum prices due to both domestic and international factors [5][6] - Weak employment data in the U.S. has led to increased expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September, which is expected to boost precious metals [5][6] - The report suggests that while gold remains a focus for investment, the recovery of the silver-gold ratio indicates potential for silver as well [5][6] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the weak performance of the U.S. labor market and its implications for precious metals, particularly gold and silver [5][6] - It suggests that gold stocks may experience a quarterly-level resonance in terms of price, valuation, and style due to anticipated rate cuts [5][6] - For silver, the report advises attention to its potential to converge with gold as inflation expectations rise [5][6] Industrial Metals - Industrial metals have seen a broad increase, with LME copper rising by 1.7% and aluminum by 3.8% [6][27] - The report notes that domestic policies aimed at stabilizing growth are expected to enhance demand outlook [6] - It indicates that while demand for copper and aluminum may decline in the second half of the year, supply constraints will limit the extent of this decline [6] Strategic and Minor Metals - The report discusses the strategic reassessment of rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on their long-term value due to government policies and market dynamics [7] - It highlights the upward price trend for cobalt and nickel, driven by supply constraints and increasing demand in the battery sector [7] - The report also mentions the bottoming out of lithium prices, with a cautious outlook on future price movements [7]