受5-6月新增非 农就业数据 大幅下修影响，叠加来自特朗普政府的巨大压力，鲍威尔于杰克逊霍尔全球央行年 会超预期转鸽，美联储9月重启降息已是大概率事件。 我们预计美联储将于9月重启降息，合计降息3-4次（75-100bp），降息终点位于3.5%附近，其中年内降息2-3 次，年底利率位于3.75%附近。我们对降息终点的预期较市场预期（3.2%）更偏鹰派。 一是美联储降息与《大而美法案》推动美国宏观政策转向"双宽松"，共振推升经济、就业及通胀，鲍威尔担忧 的"非线性下行"风险可能不会发生。 二是"再通胀"风险可能对明年11月中期选举构成实质性威胁，特朗普团队可能转向"宽财政，稳货币"的政策组 合。宽财政负责经济增长，稳货币负责控制通胀，合力为中期选举保驾护航。 我们认为市场可能复刻去年下半年走势，短期市场或延续续鸽派交易，但同时也做好中长期反转的准备。 一、宏观研判：立场转鸽 关税对通胀的推升更可能是一次性的，发生"工资-物价"螺旋及长期预期脱锚的概率不高。 由于就业市场面临 下行压力，"工资-物价"螺旋很难成型。尽管家庭和企业仍然存在广泛的通胀担忧，但基于市场和调查指标 看，长期通胀预期仍被锚定在长期目标（2% ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The market narrative has shifted from focusing solely on the White House's policy impacts to a broader consideration of fundamental economic conditions and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy[6] - Inflation risks are entering a critical observation phase, with year-to-date inflation unexpectedly declining, yet this has not significantly influenced asset pricing[6][20] - Economic growth indicators show a historical divergence between soft (miss) and hard (beat) data, with expectations of convergence in the future[28] Group 2: Inflation and Consumer Behavior - The average tariff rate increase of approximately 10% could lead to a corresponding 1% rise in inflation, with potential significant impacts on consumer prices following tariff implementations[20] - Despite resilient income growth, consumer spending has declined, with disposable income growth at 5.2% and consumption growth falling to 5.4%[40] - The consumer confidence decline is leading to a significant disparity between income resilience and spending weakness, indicating potential future consumption slowdowns[40] Group 3: Employment and Economic Trends - The employment market is showing signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls adding only 139,000 jobs in May, primarily in the service sector, while manufacturing jobs have decreased[34] - The NFIB small business optimism index indicates a downward trend in hiring plans, suggesting a potential decline in job vacancies and overall employment data[37] - The economic slowdown is expected to manifest more clearly post-tariff implementation, with rising inflation eroding income and accelerating demand decline[47] Group 4: Policy and Fiscal Reform - The new fiscal reform, termed the "Big Beautiful Bill," is projected to increase the deficit by approximately $3 trillion over the next decade, with significant implications for market dynamics[51] - The anticipated fiscal reform is expected to influence asset pricing, similar to the 2017 tax reform, which saw rising bond yields and a strengthening dollar during its legislative phase[51] - The current macroeconomic environment does not support overly optimistic forecasts regarding the economic impact of fiscal reforms due to high interest rates and ongoing policy uncertainties[49]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a collective pullback with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.75%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.10%, and ChiNext Index down 1.13% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets approached 1.5 trillion, an increase of nearly 200 billion compared to the previous day [1] ETF Performance - Oil and gold-related ETFs led the gains, with the S&P Oil & Gas ETF (513350) and (159518) rising over 6% [2] - Other notable performers included oil and gas resource ETFs and gold stock ETFs, which saw increases of over 3% [2] - COMEX gold futures closed at $3406.4 per ounce, up 1.88%, while SHFE gold futures settled at 785.16 yuan per gram, up 1.04% [2] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in Hong Kong stocks are expected to expand in the second half of 2025, particularly in internet technology and pharmaceuticals [4] - The top 10 Chinese tech giants listed in Hong Kong accounted for approximately 34% of the market capitalization, indicating potential for valuation reconstruction [4] ETF Issuance - Four new ETFs will begin fundraising on June 16, 2025, including an Artificial Intelligence ETF and a Value ETF [6] - The upcoming ETFs will track various indices, including the ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index and the CSI A50 Index [6] Index Details - The ChiNext Artificial Intelligence Index focuses on 50 tech companies involved in the AI industry, with strict weight settings [7] - The CSI Value 100 Index includes 100 low P/E, high dividend yield stocks, with a historical annualized return exceeding 17% [7] - The CSI A50 Index covers the largest 50 stocks by free float market capitalization across major exchanges, emphasizing technology and new energy sectors [7] - The Hang Seng Hong Kong Stock Connect Innovative Drug Index selects 40 innovative drug companies, reflecting a significant increase of over 60% since early 2025 [7] Sector Focus - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board 200 Index targets small-cap stocks with high growth potential, while the New Materials Index focuses on advanced materials and strategic materials [8][9]

Market Overview - The market continues to exhibit a "risk-off but not panic" sentiment, with commodities and Asia-Pacific equities leading the performance[4] - Natural gas and crude oil prices have surged due to OPEC+ production cuts and summer demand, breaking key resistance levels[4] - Silver prices have skyrocketed by 9% to $36 per ounce, the highest since 2012, driven by industrial demand and safe-haven buying[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bond market shows strong value in short-duration high-grade credit bonds due to weak growth/inflation data and liquidity easing, but caution is advised as interest rate downside potential narrows[7] - U.S. equities are supported by economic resilience, although fundamental data shows marginal weakening[7] - Gold remains supported by slowing growth and safe-haven demand, but faces short-term pressure from risk appetite recovery[7] Economic Indicators - The Chinese Business Conditions Index (BCI) recorded 50.30, slightly above the expansion threshold but down 4.45 points from March's peak of 54.75, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum[40] - The U.S. economic surprise index has dropped to -6.7, reflecting weaker-than-expected high-frequency data, reinforcing rate cut expectations[53] Market Sentiment - The implied volatility (VIX) has reached a new low, indicating a market adaptation to the noise of tariff threats, with the dollar index down nearly 9% year-to-date, enhancing the appeal of non-U.S. assets[4] - A-share market liquidity is improving, with a daily average turnover of 1.186 trillion yuan, up 10.8% week-on-week, indicating increased investor participation[57] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustment risks, market volatility risks, geopolitical shocks, economic data validation risks, and liquidity transmission risks[6][96]

Group 1 - The report indicates a prevailing market sentiment of "risk aversion without panic," with commodities and Asia-Pacific equity assets leading the performance, while volatility continues to decline [4][9] - Energy and precious metal prices have surged due to geopolitical disturbances and demand expectations, with natural gas and crude oil breaking key resistance levels supported by OPEC+ production cuts and summer demand [4][9] - The Hang Seng Index and Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index benefited from easing US-China trade tensions and anticipated consumer stimulus policies, leading to foreign capital inflows into Chinese stocks [4][9] Group 2 - The report suggests a favorable allocation towards short-duration high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, driven by weak growth/inflation data and liquidity easing, although caution is advised regarding the narrowing space for interest rate declines [7] - In the US stock market, economic resilience supports earnings, but the marginal weakening of fundamental data is noted, influenced by risk appetite [7] - Gold is expected to have long-term support from slowing growth and safe-haven demand, although short-term pressures from rising risk appetite are acknowledged [7] Group 3 - The report highlights a structural opportunity in the A-share market, focusing on sectors with superior earnings quality, despite a decline in valuation attractiveness [7][64] - The commodity market is under pressure from weak supply and demand, with only precious metals and certain energy products supported by safe-haven demand and supply-side disturbances [7] - Derivative strategies are recommended to focus on options protection or cross-commodity arbitrage due to a low volatility environment suppressing trend strategies [7] Group 4 - The macroeconomic perspective indicates a decline in the macro growth factor, with China's Business Conditions Index (BCI) slightly rising to 50.30, but still showing a significant drop from the March peak [40][41] - Liquidity conditions are improving, driven by strong policy signals, although the transmission mechanism to the real economy remains blocked [45] - Inflation indicators are trending downward, with PPI expectations hitting new lows, reflecting ongoing price pressures in the production sector [49] Group 5 - The report notes an increase in average daily trading volume in the A-share market, indicating improved investor participation and a neutral to strong liquidity environment [57] - ETF fund flows show a slight increase in stock and money market ETF sizes, suggesting a modest rise in investment sentiment [58] - A-share valuations have risen overall, but relative attractiveness has decreased, with the CSI 800's price-to-earnings ratio at the 45th percentile of the past three years [64]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that gold prices are experiencing a bullish trend, nearing the psychological level of $3400 per ounce, driven by geopolitical risks and market sentiment favoring safe-haven assets [1][4] - The recent U.S. economic data, including a March core PCE price index of 2.6% year-on-year and resilient April non-farm employment figures, alleviates concerns over "re-inflation" risks, providing support for gold bulls [1] - Technical analysis shows a strong bullish pattern in the gold market, with a "stair-step" breakout characteristic and a high probability of continued upward movement [4] Group 2 - The operational strategy suggests focusing on buying on dips around $3375, with a stop loss at $3365 and a target range of $3400-$3430 [4] - Key resistance levels are identified at $3388 and $3398, with a breakout target of $3410, while support levels are noted at $3374 and a stronger support zone between $3370-$3366 [4] - The market is expected to remain in a strong bullish trend, with a low probability of reversal in the near term [4]