记者丨董鹏 编辑丨巫燕玲 11月17日，碳酸锂期货异动，多个合约集体涨停。 截至当日收盘，主力2601合约上涨9%，最新价升至9.52万元/吨，超过今年8月的高点创出年内新高。 受此带动，锂矿股也成为当天A股市场的领涨品种，大中矿业、盛新锂能等多只锂矿股涨停的同时，大 涨后的天齐锂业就此重返千亿市值。 | 名称 | 现代 | 涨跌幅 | 5日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 盛新锂能 | 35.93 c | 10.01% | 26.38% | | 雅化集团 | 24.98 c | 10.00% | 20.04% | | 中矿资源 | 69.08 c | 10.00% | 12.99% | | 国城矿业 | 27.74 c | 9.99% | 32.60% | | 美国股份 | 6.28 c | 9.98% | 13.97% | | 天齐锂业 | 62.20 c | 9.87% | 8.16% | | 西藏城投 | 14.25 c | 9.62% | 11.33% | | 求兴材料 | 56.28 c | 8.86% | 10.33% | "如果明年需求增速超过30%，甚至达到 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lithium carbonate futures experienced significant price increases, with multiple contracts hitting the daily limit, driven by strong demand and market sentiment [1][6][11]. Industry Summary - As of the close on November 17, the main 2601 contract rose by 9%, reaching a price of 95,200 yuan/ton, marking a new annual high [2]. - Lithium mining stocks surged, with companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium returning to a market capitalization of over 100 billion yuan [2]. - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman indicated that if demand growth exceeds 30% to 40% next year, prices could potentially surpass 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [3][5]. - The lithium battery industry has shown signs of improvement, with lithium salt inventories declining for 13 consecutive weeks, driven by high operating rates in downstream sectors [4][7]. - The price of lithium carbonate in the domestic market reached an average of 86,200 yuan/ton on November 17, up by 980 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [13]. - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate for Q3 was 73,000 yuan/ton, while it has increased to 78,000 yuan/ton in Q4 so far [14]. - Companies with integrated lithium extraction processes, such as Tianqi Lithium and Yongxing Materials, are expected to see improved profitability in Q4 due to stable costs [15][16]. - The price of imported lithium spodumene has increased by 55 USD/ton as of November 17 [17]. - Market sentiment has been bolstered by rising prices in other lithium battery components, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, which surged from 61,000 yuan/ton to around 160,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The futures market saw a significant increase in trading volume, with a total open interest reaching a historical high of 1.118 million contracts on November 17 [10]. - The gap between futures and spot prices has widened significantly, indicating potential adjustments needed in the market [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current production of lithium carbonate remains at a high level, and although the futures price of lithium carbonate is relatively strong compared to the entire capital market, the slight decline in the futures price still strengthens the price difference of lithium carbonate, suppressing the enthusiasm for delivering new lithium carbonate goods for warehousing. The growth rate of new warehouse receipts registration is poor. Although downstream demand is strong, there is a lack of marginal increase. Overall, the supply - demand fundamentals are still dominated by excess supply pressure, and the situation of the futures price under pressure remains unchanged. However, attention can be paid to the repair path of the basis [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Report Summary - **Fundamentals**: - Lithium ore: The demand for domestic high - priced ore is affected by a wait - and - see attitude. Tariff factors have hit the demand expectation of lithium carbonate, and the demand for high - priced mica ore has been greatly affected [3]. - Lithium salt: The growth rate of warehouse receipts has slowed down, and the pressure of circulating inventory has increased. After the centralized cancellation of lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts at the beginning of the month, the growth rate of new warehouse receipts is significantly slower than in previous periods. The high basis still significantly inhibits the enthusiasm for warehousing. The production in March reached a record high, and it is expected to remain at a high level in April, and the supply pressure in the spot market is expected to remain [3]. - Cathode materials and lithium batteries: Exports hit ternary lithium more than lithium iron phosphate. The production schedule of domestic lithium iron phosphate is stable, and the expected impact of tariffs on the demand for ternary lithium materials is stronger than that for lithium iron phosphate [3]. - **Market summary**: The supply - demand fundamentals are still dominated by excess supply pressure, and the futures price is under pressure, but attention can be paid to the repair path of the basis [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Lithium carbonate balance sheet**: It shows the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, cumulative balance, sample inventory, and sample change of lithium carbonate from March 2023 to March 2025, indicating that the supply - demand relationship is in a delicate balance [6][8]. - **Lithium hydroxide balance sheet**: It presents the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide from March 2023 to March 2025 [9][11]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply and Demand and Price - **Lithium spodumene import**: It provides data on the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil) from February 2022 to February 2025 [13][17]. - **Chinese lithium ore**: The wait - and - see attitude has hit high - priced domestic ore. It includes data on domestic lithium ore production, weekly inventory, and market prices of lithium concentrate [18][22]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply and Demand and Price - **Lithium salt spot and futures prices**: The price of lithium salt fluctuates narrowly around 75,000 yuan. It provides the market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and their price differences from February 2025 to April 2025, as well as data on the futures closing price and basis of lithium carbonate [24][29]. - **Production cost and profit**: The profit of high - grade lithium mica has been significantly repaired. It shows the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from lithium spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica from September 2024 to April 2025 [35][39]. - **Lithium carbonate production**: It provides data on the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate from 2022 to 2025, including production by grade and raw material [40][49]. - **Operating rate**: It shows an upward trend seasonally. It provides data on the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate (overall and by raw material), and lithium hydroxide from 2022 to 2025 [50][54]. - **Monthly import volume of lithium carbonate**: It provides data on the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile from March 2022 to February 2025 [55][59]. - **Lithium carbonate inventory**: Attention should be paid to the growth rate of new warehouse receipts registration. It includes data on downstream and smelter inventories, weekly inventories, and the number of futures registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate [60][64]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand - **Lithium iron phosphate**: The operating rate remains at a high level. It provides data on the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate from 2019 to March 2025 [66][70]. - **Ternary materials**: It provides data on the total production, operating rate, import and export volume of ternary materials from 2019 to March 2025 [71][81]. - **New energy vehicle production and sales**: It includes data on the weekly production of batteries (lithium iron phosphate and ternary lithium), the production of new energy vehicles (pure electric and plug - in hybrid), and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers from 2021 to March 2025 [82][86]. - **Lithium battery import and export volume**: It provides data on the import, export, net export, and net export growth rate of lithium - ion batteries from October 2022 to February 2025 [88][91].