五矿证券指出，观察到产业的三大变化：供给端生产韧性强；需求带动下，产业链去库并加速。 2025Q3全球新能源汽车销量540万辆，同比+23%；储能电池出货量170Gwh，同比+98.5%，产业链排产 增加带动库存去化并加速；中资企业资本开支已处于周期底部约3年时间，我们预计2026-2028年锂盐项 目投产节奏放缓。该行认为锂矿周期拐点已经逐步接近。 锂业股早盘走高，截至发稿，赣锋锂业（002460）(01772)涨4.27%，报51.8港元；天齐锂业（002466） (09696)涨3.31%，报48港元。 消息面上，碳酸锂期货2605合约今早一度涨超3%，最高见96800元/吨。根据华泰证券测算，由于预期 27年全球锂资源供需关系或走向短缺，短缺预期或推升价格在26年下半年提前启动，有望再次突破10万 元/吨。考虑下游对于碳酸锂价格的敏感程度相对较低，该行认为若27年出现持续短缺去库情况，碳酸 锂价格上行空间或进一步打开，有望上涨至12万元/吨。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，锂业股早盘走高，截至发稿，赣锋锂业(01772)涨4.27%，报51.8港元；天齐锂业 (09696)涨3.31%，报48港元。 消息面上，碳酸锂期货2605合约今早一度涨超3%，最高见96800元/吨。根据华泰证券测算，由于预期 27年全球锂资源供需关系或走向短缺，短缺预期或推升价格在26年下半年提前启动，有望再次突破10万 元/吨。考虑下游对于碳酸锂价格的敏感程度相对较低，该行认为若27年出现持续短缺去库情况，碳酸 锂价格上行空间或进一步打开，有望上涨至12万元/吨。 五矿证券指出，观察到产业的三大变化：供给端生产韧性强；需求带动下，产业链去库并加速。 2025Q3全球新能源汽车销量540万辆，同比+23%；储能电池出货量170Gwh，同比+98.5%，产业链排产 增加带动库存去化并加速；中资企业资本开支已处于周期底部约3年时间，我们预计2026-2028年锂盐项 目投产节奏放缓。该行认为锂矿周期拐点已经逐步接近。 ...

五矿证券近日发布A股锂矿行业2025年三季报梳理分析：2025Q3全球新能源汽车销量540万辆，同比 +23%；储能电池出货量170Gwh，同比+98.5%，产业链排产增加带动库存去化并加速。2025Q3锂盐库 存由15万吨下降至13万吨，进入十月份后，库存去化速度加快。 以下为研究报告摘要： 事件描述 A股12家涉及锂矿&锂盐业务企业均已披露2025Q3季报，我们从价格、产量、库存、营业收入、归母净 利润、毛利率&净利率、费用、资本支出和偿债能力九大方向进行分析，通过样本企业观测市场整体变 化趋势，以寻求锂行业周期拐点启示。 12家样本企业为：天齐锂业、中矿资源、盛新锂能、雅化集团、融捷股份、永兴材料、江特电机、盐湖 股份、藏格矿业、西藏矿业、天华新能、华友钴业（以上排名不分先后）。 事件点评 通过我们对A股12家锂矿企业2025Q3季报的梳理，我们发现： 1.市场方面： 2）产量：2025Q3盐湖放量叠加冶炼端套保利润增加，中国锂盐产量增速提升； 3）库存：需求旺季，锂盐库存逐月下降并向下游聚集。 2.上市公司业绩层面： 1）营业收入：2025Q3上市公司量价齐升，营业收入同比+27%； 2）归母净利润： ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The lithium price has shown a strong rebound due to supply constraints and increased demand from the energy storage sector, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising from 61,300 CNY/ton to 85,700 CNY/ton in Q3 2025, marking an 11.92% increase from the previous quarter [12] - The overall revenue of 12 A-share lithium companies reached 39.718 billion CNY in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 27.01% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12% [18] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for these companies surged to 5.328 billion CNY in Q3 2025, a significant year-on-year increase of 110% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 65% [21] - The average gross margin for the companies was 24.7%, with a net margin of 13.42%, indicating a positive trend in profitability [29] Market Analysis - The lithium supply remains resilient despite production disruptions in regions like Jiangxi, with Q3 2025 lithium salt production reaching 328,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.9% [14] - Global sales of new energy vehicles reached 5.4 million units in Q3 2025, a 23% increase year-on-year, driving demand for lithium [9] - Lithium salt inventory decreased from 150,000 tons to 130,000 tons in Q3 2025, indicating a trend of destocking in the industry [17] Financial Performance - The average cash ratio for the companies was 0.79, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 38.75%, indicating stable debt repayment capabilities [55] - Capital expenditures for the 12 companies totaled 16.943 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.65% [49] - The four major expenses (sales, management, R&D, and financial costs) totaled 3.26 billion CNY in Q3 2025, with a notable increase in financial expenses [38]

Core Insights - The report from Wenkang Securities highlights a significant decline in lithium prices, with Q2 2025 prices dropping from 74,000 yuan/ton to 60,000 yuan/ton, leading to compressed profit margins for companies in the sector [1][6] - The analysis covers 12 A-share companies involved in lithium mining and lithium salt businesses, focusing on various financial metrics to identify market trends and potential turning points in the lithium industry [2] Market Analysis - Lithium prices in Q2 2025 did not meet expectations, continuing to decline to 60,000 yuan/ton [3] - The growth rate of lithium salt production in China slowed down in Q2 2025 [3] - High social inventory of lithium salts remains above 150,000 tons due to weak demand [3] Company Performance - Companies reported a 3% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q2 2025, driven by volume despite falling prices [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9% year-on-year due to reduced gross profit and inventory impairment losses [4] - Gross and net profit margins for Q2 2025 were recorded at 22.36% and 9.13%, respectively, indicating a reversal trend [4] - Total expenses for the sample companies amounted to 2.287 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3% [6] - Capital expenditures remain at a low point in the cycle, with total capital spending of 4.1 billion yuan in Q2 2025, down 8% year-on-year [7] Industry Trends - There is a low willingness among Chinese companies to reduce production despite the declining prices, with some companies reporting net losses in their non-mining operations [6] - Companies are actively reducing expenses during the downturn, maintaining stable debt repayment capabilities [6] - The slowdown in capital expenditures suggests that the pace of future lithium salt project launches will decelerate, indicating that the lithium market may be approaching a cyclical turning point [7]

Market Overview - In Q2 2025, lithium resource clearing was below expectations, with lithium prices continuing to decline to 60,000 yuan/ton [2] - The growth rate of lithium salt production in China slowed down in Q2 2025 [2] - Due to weak demand, social inventory of lithium salt remained high at over 150,000 tons [2] Company Performance - In Q2 2025, listed companies increased revenue by 3% year-on-year by compensating volume for price [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9% year-on-year due to reduced gross profit and inventory impairment losses [3] - Gross and net profit margins were reported at 22.36% and 9.13%, respectively, indicating a reversal trend [3] - Financial expenses decreased in 2024, while management and sales expenses have limited room for reduction [3] - Capital expenditures remained at a cyclical low [3] - Debt repayment capability remained stable and within a reasonable range [3] Industry Changes - Chinese companies showed a very low willingness to reduce production, with lithium prices dropping from 74,000 yuan/ton to 60,000 yuan/ton, further compressing profit margins [4] - Some companies reported net losses, such as Shengxin Lithium Energy with a net loss of 165 million yuan and Zhongmin (Hong Kong) with a net loss of 210 million yuan in H1 2025 [4] - Despite some companies experiencing losses, their debt repayment capabilities remained relatively stable, with overall leverage still in a safe zone [4] - Capital expenditures have slowed down, with total capital expenditure for sample companies at 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.0%, indicating that the lithium cycle turning point is approaching [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The lithium mining industry is experiencing a gradual stabilization after a period of clearing out excess inventory, with signs of a cyclical turning point approaching [2][3] - The report highlights that the performance of listed lithium companies is under pressure due to declining lithium prices and increased inventory levels, but there are indications of potential recovery in the second half of 2025 [8][10] Market Analysis - Lithium prices fell to 60,000 yuan/ton in Q2 2025, down from 74,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a continued downward trend due to oversupply [10] - The production growth rate of lithium salts in China slowed, with Q2 2025 production at 299,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 4% [11] - Social inventory of lithium salts remained high at over 150,000 tons due to weak demand [16] Company Performance - The total operating revenue of the 12 listed lithium companies reached 35.36 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3% [21] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 9% year-on-year to 3.227 billion yuan in Q2 2025, impacted by reduced gross profit and inventory impairment losses [25] - The gross margin for the companies was 22.36%, showing a reversal trend, while the net margin was 9.13% [33][36] Financial Metrics - The total expenses for the 12 companies amounted to 2.287 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year [40] - Capital expenditures for the companies totaled 11.5 billion yuan in H1 2025, indicating a slowdown in investment as the industry approaches a cyclical bottom [53] - The debt repayment capability remains stable, with an average cash ratio of 0.64 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 26.25% [61][62]