锂业股早盘继续走高，截至发稿，天齐锂业（002466）(09696)涨6.01%，报52.75港元；赣锋锂业 （002460）(01772)涨4.65%，报54港元。 消息面上，12月22日早，广期所碳酸锂主力合约再涨近5%，现报115300元/吨。据期货日报，江西省宜 春招标网发布《江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝锂矿采矿项目环境影响评价第一次环评信息公 示》，对宜春时代新能源矿业有限公司的江西省宜丰县圳口里-奉新县枧下窝锂矿采矿项目进行第一次 环评信息公示。北京市京师律师事务所矿产资源法律事务部主任曹旭升表示，这是众多办证流程中的正 常审批环节之一，若想正常开采，后续还需办理一系列申请、审查、备案、审批等手续。 华创证券认为，宜春枧下窝锂矿复产进度或低于预期，枧下窝矿采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂停了开采 作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，随着环评公示的开展，以及后续审批手续的办理，复产 或将延后至2026年上半年，加剧了当前锂供应紧张的局面，锂价上涨获强势支撑。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for lithium carbonate is "oscillating" [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices declined under pressure. The market will return to the fundamental logic after the supply disturbances subside. The resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine will significantly affect the timing of the inventory inflection point. The resumption expectation has put pressure on the market, but the price decline during the peak season is limited before the actual resumption. After the demand inflection point, prices may enter a downward channel again under the year - end inventory pressure. It is recommended to adopt a bearish strategy, be cautious in short - term short - chasing, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and reverse arbitrage opportunities [1][2][14][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Supply Risk Weakens, Lithium Prices Give Back Premiums - From September 8th to 12th, lithium salt prices fell. LC2509 and LC2511 closed down 3.7% and 4.2% respectively to 71,200 yuan/ton. SMM battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices dropped 3.1% and 3.2% to 72,500 and 70,200 yuan/ton. SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide prices also declined. The price premium of battery - grade lithium hydroxide over battery - grade lithium carbonate widened by 0.1 million yuan to 0.18 million yuan/ton. High prices have activated some lithium ore inventories hoarded by traders at the beginning of the year, and the net import of the Chinese market has increased marginally. The demand is in the seasonal peak season, and it is expected that the monthly inventory will decrease by 3,000 tons from September to October, and then enter the inventory accumulation stage [1][2][11][14] 3.2 Week - long Industry News Review - **Brazil's Lithium Export Decline in August**: Brazilian lithium exports in August decreased by more than one - third year - on - year. The export of spodumene was 20,000 tons, a 35.5% year - on - year decline and nearly a 43% decline from July [16] - **Codelco and SQM to Reach a Joint Lithium Mining Agreement**: Chilean state - owned copper miner Codelco and the world's second - largest lithium producer SQM are about to finalize a partnership to mine lithium from the Atacama salt flats. The agreement is expected to be reached in a few weeks but needs antitrust approval [16] - **China's Battery Exports in August**: In August, China's total exports of power and other batteries were 22.6GWh, a 23.9% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative exports reached 173.1GWh, a 48.5% year - on - year increase [17] - **Ningde Times' Meeting on Resuming Jianxiaowo Lithium Mine Production**: Ningde Times' subsidiary held a meeting to make decisions on resuming production, including recalling employees, preparing production equipment, ensuring safety, and achieving full - load production after resumption [17][18] 3.3 Key High - frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: Spot Quotes of Lithium Concentrate Decline - The spot average price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased from 871 US dollars/ton to 842 US dollars/ton, a 3.3% decline [12] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: Weak Oscillation in the Market - The prices of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices declined. The battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot average prices decreased by 3.1% and 3.2% respectively. The prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide also dropped [11][12] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Slightly Decline - The spot average prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt acid lithium showed slight changes, with some rising and some falling [12] 3.3.4 Terminal: The Installation Proportion of Lithium Iron Phosphate in August Further Increased - Although specific data on the increase in the installation proportion of lithium iron phosphate are not provided in the text, it is emphasized that the installation proportion has further increased [42]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant drop due to a combination of rumors and expectations of production resumption, with the main contract closing at 80,980 yuan/ton, marking an 8% decline [2][4]. Market Reactions - On August 20, lithium carbonate opened sharply lower and closed with all contracts hitting the limit down, influenced by the announcement from Jiangte Electric that its subsidiary Yichun Yinli would resume production soon [2][4]. - The market was also affected by various rumors, including the transportation of Australian lithium concentrate to China and potential sanctions on lithium from the U.S., leading to a widespread decline in prices [2][4]. Production and Supply Dynamics - Yichun Yinli's resumption of production follows a comprehensive equipment overhaul, with the company previously producing 1,300 tons per month before the shutdown [4]. - Despite the rumors, analysts noted that the actual impact on the market was limited, as the basic supply-demand dynamics remained stable, with no significant deterioration observed [4][5]. Inventory and Demand Insights - Current lithium concentrate inventories in China are reported to be sufficient, with domestic traders holding 278,000 tons and lithium salt plants maintaining around 300,000 tons [5]. - Recent data indicated a slight decrease in overall inventory levels across the supply chain, suggesting a tight balance in the lithium carbonate market [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that the recent price drop may be overdone, with potential upward momentum in lithium prices due to tightening supply and seasonal demand increases [9]. - The market remains cautious, with ongoing concerns about production resumption timelines and regulatory impacts on supply chains, which could lead to further price volatility [9].