Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 ◆ 供应端如期放量。随着锌精矿的放量兑现，炼厂及港口锌精矿库存处在相对充裕的位 置，且目前炼厂利润处于历史中位。国内炼厂集中检修后带来增量，叠加炼厂搬迁、 新建项目投产，供应压力增加，过剩逻辑或将显性化，逐步体现在社会库存累积之上。 ◆ 消费端迈入传统淡季，下游开工率边际下滑，补库空间有所收缩。终端内需消费迈入 淡季，外需抢出口的程度在每一轮次中逐步走弱，该点在5月出口数据中已有验证体 现。因此，下游开工率存在下调趋势，需求端收缩，下游原料库存本位于相对高位， 继续补库空间逐步收缩。 ◆ 短期内社库累库幅度相对较为缓和，空头较为谨慎，叠加宏观氛围阶段性走暖带来一 定的提振，导致锌价难以出现流畅下跌趋势，以横盘震荡为主。低库存实则部分受到 实则部分受到炼厂锌合金产量增加、厂提比例提升以及部分锌锭在二季度低价背景下 转移至下游原料库存三个因素的影响，后续供需的过剩也将体现在多个环节的累库当 中，中长期仍以逢高空思路为主。内外策略方面，国内供增需减淡季期间沪锌或相对 更弱，可以继续持有中短期即季度以内的正套头寸。 国泰君安期货 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：中性 锌：中长期基本面偏空，短期关注量价变动 下游开工边际下调 社库低位企稳 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2023-07 2023-11 2024-03 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 % 镀锌 压铸锌 氧化锌 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 01-02 01-12 01-22 02-05 02-19 03-03 03-14 03-26 04-08 04-19 05-05 05-16 05-28 06-09 06-20 07-02 07-14 07-25 08-06 08-18 08-29 09-10 09-23 10-10 10-22 11-03 11-14 11-26 12-08 12-19 12-31 万吨 ...

锌产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 日期：2025年6月22日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 强弱分析：偏弱 锌：过剩或逐步显性化，价格承压 下游开工边际下调 社库低位企稳 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 第 2 页 ◆ 供应端如期放量。随着锌精矿的放量兑现，炼厂及港口锌精矿库存处在相对充裕的位 置，且目前炼厂利润处于历史中位。国内炼厂集中检修后带来增量，叠加炼厂搬迁、 新建项目投产，供应压力增加，过剩逻辑或将显性化，体现在社会库存累积之上。 ◆ 消费端迈入传统淡季，下游补库谨慎。终端内需消费迈入淡季，外需抢出口的程度在 每一轮次中逐步走弱，该点在5月出口数据中已有验证体现。因此，下游开工率存在 下调趋势，需求端收缩。 ◆ 锌矿供应增量传导至冶炼端供应压力增加的逻辑依然适用，炼厂增量，而需求端步入 淡季，价格偏弱运行，中期空头持有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak". Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and trend weakly in the medium - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the subsequent processing fees still have a trend of rising steadily. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the smelting revenue including by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is close to 1000 yuan/ton. At the same time, smelter raw material and port ore inventories are at relatively high levels, and the smelting start - up rate has generally increased in the second quarter. However, in May, smelters in regions such as Yunnan are under maintenance and shut - down, and the output may decrease by more than 10,000 tons compared with April [7]. - Consumption is gradually transitioning to a slack stage, and the downstream replenishment space is limited. In terms of terminal consumption by sector, power towers are still relatively strong, while other sectors are relatively dull. After the previous sharp price decline, the downstream had a strong willingness to replenish raw materials, which to some extent reduced the subsequent demand space. It is expected that the apparent consumption peaked in April and will show a high - level contraction trend, putting pressure on the upper price limit [7]. - Fundamentally, it shows weak supply and demand. The supply - side production cuts and low social inventories support the near - end price. However, there is still an expectation of increased supply in the far - end, the inflection point of social inventories may come, and it will still operate weakly in the medium - and long - term, and the term spread also faces convergence pressure. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, the profit - loss ratio of domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage is appropriate, but attention should be paid to structural losses [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,260 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,655.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 140,017 lots, an increase of 24,655 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 119,170 lots, an increase of 13,174 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 last Friday was 6,713 lots, an increase of 1,517 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 213,170 lots, an increase of 4,608 lots [8]. - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium last Friday was - 26.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.96 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The SHFE zinc basis showed different changes in different regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory last week was 1,903 tons, a decrease of 451 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE zinc inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The bonded - area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. The social inventory was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons [8]. 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has risen to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. The port inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at relatively high levels, while the seven - region inventory and smelter finished - product inventory are relatively low [10][11]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level. Smelting profit has recovered and is at a historical medium level. The profit of galvanized pipe enterprises is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Start - up Rate**: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The refined zinc monthly start - up rate has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a historically low level [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined from a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE Zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short - term and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The global zinc visible inventory has decreased [25][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same historical period [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [41][44]. 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49]. - **Downstream**: The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly recovered, and most are at a medium - low level in the same historical period. The downstream raw material inventory and finished - product inventory show different trends in different sectors [50][52]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - In Europe, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries also varies [63].