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锌产业链周度报告-20250727
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 07:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the zinc industry is neutral [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and remain bearish in the medium term. The supply is increasing while the demand is in the traditional off - season. Although the short - term inventory accumulation is moderate and the macro - environment provides some support, the long - term excess supply will lead to price pressure. It is advisable to hold short positions in the medium - long term and maintain long - short positions within the quarter [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Data - **Market Review**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last week was 22,885, with a weekly increase of 2.65%. The closing price of last night's session was 22,715, with a night - session decline of 0.74%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,829, with a weekly increase of 0.18% [7] - **Futures Trading and Position Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 152,086, an increase of 1,020 compared to the previous week. The position was 129,228, an increase of 13,260. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 8,275, a decrease of 10,132 compared to the previous week, and the position was 190,675, an increase of 3,903 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipt inventory increased by 1,928 to 13,289; Shanghai Zinc total inventory increased by 4,789 to 59,419; social inventory increased by 4,800 to 98,300; LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,325 to 115,775; bonded area inventory remained unchanged at 6,000 [7] - **Fundamental Data and Information**: Imported zinc ore processing fees remained at $55/ton; imported zinc ore smelting profit increased by 73 to - 1,765 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore processing fees remained at 3,800 yuan/ton; domestic zinc ore smelting profit increased by 154 to 462 yuan/ton; galvanized sheet price increased by 120 to 4,050 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have returned to high levels, and zinc ingot visible inventory has increased but remains low [10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short term and at a historical medium level; smelting profit is stable and at a historical medium level; galvanized pipe enterprise profit is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level; the refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level in the same period; among downstream industries, the galvanized operation rate has increased, while the die - cast zinc operation rate has decreased and is at a medium - low level in history [14][15] 3.3 Trading Aspect - **Spot**: Spot premium has significantly declined, and overseas premium is relatively stable. The structure of LME CASH - 3M has changed significantly [18][23] - **Spread**: The near - end of Shanghai Zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually shifting to a backwardation [25] - **Inventory**: Inventory at a low level shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global zinc visible inventory has increased slightly [33][38] - **Futures**: The domestic position is at a relatively high level in the same period in history [39] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports have declined, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. The arrival volume of zinc ore at ports is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [42][43] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period in history, and zinc alloy output is at a high level [44] - **Import and Export**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [47] 3.5 Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: Refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The monthly operation rate of downstream industries has slightly decreased, and most are at medium - low levels in the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [56][59] - **Terminal**: The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural incremental growth [72] 3.6 Overseas Factors - There are fluctuations in European natural gas, carbon, and electricity prices, which may have an impact on the zinc market [74][75][76]
锌产业链周度报告-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 13:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - The strength analysis of zinc is neutral, indicating that the fundamentals show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it will fluctuate, and in the medium - term, it remains bearish [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side has seen an expected increase. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, refineries and port inventories of zinc concentrate are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a historical median. After concentrated domestic refinery maintenance, production has increased, along with new projects. Thus, supply pressure has risen, and the surplus logic may be evident in the accumulation of social inventories. The consumption side has entered the traditional off - season. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally, and the space for restocking has shrunk. In the short - term, the accumulation of social inventories is relatively moderate, which makes short - sellers cautious. Coupled with the short - term improvement in the macro - environment, zinc prices are mainly in a range - bound state. In the medium - to long - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Regarding internal - external strategies, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased domestic supply and decreased demand in the off - season, so short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison (Inventory, Profit, and Operating Rate) Inventory - Zinc ore and refinery finished product inventories have returned to high levels, while the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased but remains low [10] Profit - Zinc mine profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable and at a relatively low level compared to the same period [12][13] Operating Rate - The smelting operating rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operating rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to a historical median. The refined zinc monthly operating rate is at a high level compared to the same period. The operating rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a relatively low level [14][15] 2. Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, Transaction, and Position) Spot - The spot premium has significantly declined. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [18][23] Spread - The near - end of Shanghai zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the backwardation [25] Inventory - Domestic inventory is at a low level but shows a stable upward trend, and the position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. LME total inventory has slightly increased in the short - term and is at a historical median. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory. Bonded area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has slightly increased [35][37][39] Futures - The domestic position volume is at a relatively high level compared to the same period [43] 3. Supply (Zinc Concentrate, Refined Zinc, and Secondary Zinc Oxide) Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc mine production is at a medium - to - low level, and the recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and refinery raw material inventory is abundant, at a historical high compared to the same period [46][47] Refined Zinc - Smelting production has marginally recovered, refinery finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period, and zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median [48][51] 4. Zinc Demand (Downstream Processed Materials and End - Users) Downstream - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. The downstream monthly operating rate has slightly decreased, and most are at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [59][62] End - Users - The real estate sector remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [75] 5. Overseas Factors (Natural Gas, Carbon, and Electricity) - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price, ICE EU carbon quota main contract price, and electricity prices in different European countries show different trends over time [77][78][79]
锌产业链周度报告:有色及贵金属-20250706
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-06 10:08
1. Report Sector Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The zinc market is experiencing slow inventory accumulation, with short - term price fluctuations and a mid - to long - term bearish outlook. The supply is increasing while the demand is entering the traditional off - season, leading to a potential surplus situation [3][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract last week was 22,410 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 0.00%, and the night - session closing price was 22,240 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.76%. LmeS - zinc3 last week closed at 2,735.5 dollars/ton, down 1.55% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract last Friday was 153,571 lots, a decrease of 72,253 lots from the previous week, and the open interest was 128,000 lots, a decrease of 14,428 lots. For LmeS - zinc3, the trading volume was 4,385 lots, a decrease of 8,080 lots, and the open interest was 205,849 lots, a decrease of 4,129 lots [7] - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc warrant inventory increased by 874 tons to 7,246 tons, and the total SHFE zinc inventory increased by 1,731 tons to 45,364 tons. The social inventory increased by 2,900 tons to 82,400 tons, while LME zinc inventory decreased by 6,900 tons to 112,325 tons [7] 3.2 Industry Chain Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible zinc ingot inventory has increased but remains relatively low [9] - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a medium level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level, smelting profits are also stable and at a historical medium level, and galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period [11][12] - **Operation Rate**: The zinc smelting operation rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream operation rate is at a historically low level. Zinc concentrate operation rate has rebounded to a historical medium level, refined zinc monthly operation rate is at a high level compared to the same period, and the operation rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have declined and are at a medium - to - low historical level [13][14] 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: Spot premiums have recently rebounded from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][17] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [19] - **Inventory**: Inventories are showing a stable upward trend from a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term decrease and at a medium level compared to the same period in history. The CASH - 3M is related to LME off - warrant inventory [20][21][22] 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down [29] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level [31] - **Imports and Exports**: Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [34] 3.5 Demand - **Refined Zinc Consumption**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive [39] - **Downstream**: The monthly downstream operation rate has slightly decreased, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history. The downstream raw material inventory and finished product inventory show different trends [40][41] - **Terminal Demand**: The real estate market remains at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [54] 3.6 Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of zinc smelters in European countries [56]
锌产业链周度报告:有色及贵金属-20250629
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-29 09:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating for the zinc industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The medium - to long - term fundamentals of zinc are bearish, and short - term attention should be paid to volume - price changes [3] - The supply side has increased as expected. With the increase in zinc concentrate supply, refinery and port zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant, and refinery profits are at a historical median. After concentrated maintenance of domestic refineries, production has increased, and new projects have been put into operation, increasing supply pressure [5] - The consumption side has entered the traditional off - season. Downstream restocking is cautious. Terminal domestic demand has entered the off - season, and the degree of export rush in external demand has gradually weakened, leading to a decline in downstream operating rates and a contraction in demand [5] - This year, with extremely low domestic visible inventories, the degree of expected trading has weakened. Price movements are mainly driven by macro - events and micro - level inventory changes. In the short - term, LME position concentration and CASH - 3M structure changes have driven the price to run strongly, and it is advisable to observe volume - price signals. In the medium - to long - term, prices are expected to remain weak as the off - season deepens. For internal - external strategies, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increased supply and decreased demand in the domestic off - season, and short - to medium - term (within a quarter) positive spread positions can be held [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Changes**: The closing price of Shanghai Zinc main contract last week was 22,410, with a weekly increase of 2.59%. The night - session closing price was 22,460, with a night - session increase of 0.22%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc3 last week was 2,778.5, with a weekly increase of 4.89% [6] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc main contract last Friday was 225,824, an increase of 121,128 compared to the previous week. The open interest was 142,428, an increase of 65,865 compared to the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc3 was 12,465, an increase of 5,650 compared to the previous week, and the open interest was 209,978, an increase of 2,008 compared to the previous week [6] - **Basis Changes**: LME zinc basis changed from - 24.65 to - 0.24, an increase of 24.41; the bonded area zinc premium increased from 125 to 140; the spot basis of Shanghai 0 zinc decreased from 115 to 75; the spot basis of Guangdong 0 zinc decreased from 220 to 145; the spot basis of Tianjin 0 zinc decreased from 105 to 5 [6] - **Inter - month Spread Changes**: The spread between the near - month and the first - consecutive contract decreased from 170 to 80 [6] - **Internal - External Spread Changes**: The spot import profit and loss of zinc changed from - 577.18 to - 1,202.44, a decrease of 625.26; the import profit and loss of Shanghai Zinc 3M changed from - 986.89 to - 1,214.06, a decrease of 227.17 [6] 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison 3.2.1 Inventory - Zinc concentrate inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. Port and refinery zinc concentrate inventories are relatively abundant [8][9] 3.2.2 Profit - Zinc concentrate mining profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are at a median level. Mining enterprise profits are stable in the short - term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable but at a relatively low level compared to the same period [10][11] 3.2.3 Operating Rate - Zinc concentrate operating rate has rebounded to a historical median. Refined zinc monthly operating rate is at a high level compared to the same period. Downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc operating rates have decreased and are at a relatively low level in history [12][13] 3.3 Trading Aspect 3.3.1 Spot - Spot premiums have fallen from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decline in Antwerp. The LME CASH - 3M structure has changed significantly [16][18] 3.3.2 Spread - The near - end of Shanghai Zinc shows a backwardation structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of backwardation [20] 3.3.3 Inventory - Domestic inventory at a low level shows a stabilizing trend. The position - to - inventory ratio has declined from a high level. LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore, with a short - term decrease and at a historical median level. Global zinc visible inventory has slightly declined, and bonded area inventory has remained stable [21][26][29] 3.3.4 Futures - The open interest of the domestic market is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history [30] 3.4 Supply 3.4.1 Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level. Domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - to - low level. The recovery rate of domestic and imported ore processing fees has slowed down. Ore arrivals are at a medium level, and refinery raw material inventories are abundant and at a historical high [33][34] 3.4.2 Refined Zinc - Smelting production has marginally recovered. Refinery finished product inventories are at a medium - to - high level compared to the same period in history, and zinc alloy production is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [35][38] 3.5 Zinc Demand 3.5.1 Downstream Processing Materials - The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. Downstream monthly operating rates have slightly recovered, mostly at a medium - to - low level compared to the same period in history. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [43][45] 3.5.2 Terminal - The real estate market remains at a low level, and the power grid shows structural increments [57] 3.6 Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which affect the profitability of European zinc smelters [59]
锌产业链周度报告-20250622
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 09:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the zinc industry is "Weak" [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The zinc market is expected to face increasing supply and decreasing demand during the off - season, leading to a gradual manifestation of oversupply and downward pressure on prices. In the medium term, holding short positions is recommended. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and as the off - season deepens, the downward trend will be more pronounced. Positive spread positions within a quarter can be considered [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The last - week closing price of SHFE Zinc Main Contract was 21,845, with a weekly increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 21,935, with a night - session increase of 0.41%. The last - week closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 2,649, with a weekly increase of 0.86% [7] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc Main Contract last Friday was 104,696, a decrease of 86,341 from the previous week, and the open interest was 76,563, a decrease of 46,597. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 was 6,815, a decrease of 9,197, and the open interest was 207,970, an increase of 1,574 [7] - **Inventory Changes**: SHFE zinc warehouse receipts inventory decreased by 229 to 8,743; SHFE total zinc inventory decreased by 2,602 to 42,864; social inventory increased by 2,500 to 79,600; LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,775 to 126,225, and the注销仓单 ratio was 25.57%, a decrease of 18.30% [7] 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has rebounded to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is relatively low. Zinc ore inventory at ports and smelters is relatively abundant [9][10] - **Profit**: Zinc ore mining companies' profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median level. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median level. Galvanized pipe enterprises' profits are stable but at a relatively low level compared to the same period [11][12] - **Production Capacity Utilization**: Zinc concentrate production capacity utilization has rebounded to a median level in the same period. Refined zinc monthly production capacity utilization is at a high level in the same period. Downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc production capacity utilization has decreased and is at a relatively low level in history [13][14] 3.3. Trading Perspective - **Spot**: Spot premiums have declined from high levels. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19] - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE zinc shows a B structure, and the far - end is gradually moving out of the back structure [21] - **Inventory**: Inventory has shown a stable trend at a low level, and the ratio of open interest to inventory has declined from a high level [22] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the domestic market is at a relatively high level in the same period [31] 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. Ore arrival volume is at a medium level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period [34][35] - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting output has marginally recovered, smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - high level in the same period, and zinc alloy output is at a high level. Refined zinc imports are at a historical median level [36][39] 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Downstream Processing Materials**: The consumption growth rate of refined zinc is positive. Downstream monthly production capacity utilization has slightly recovered and is mostly at a medium - low level in the same period. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories show different trends [45][47] - **End - Users**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural growth [58] 3.6. Overseas Factors - European electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, which have an impact on the profitability of European zinc smelters [60]
锌产业链周度报告:有色及贵金属-20250511
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 07:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Weak". Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand, and trend weakly in the medium - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the resumption of mines and the gradual implementation of new and expanded production capacities, the subsequent processing fees still have a trend of rising steadily. Currently, smelter profits have significantly recovered, and the smelting revenue including by - products such as silver and sulfuric acid is close to 1000 yuan/ton. At the same time, smelter raw material and port ore inventories are at relatively high levels, and the smelting start - up rate has generally increased in the second quarter. However, in May, smelters in regions such as Yunnan are under maintenance and shut - down, and the output may decrease by more than 10,000 tons compared with April [7]. - Consumption is gradually transitioning to a slack stage, and the downstream replenishment space is limited. In terms of terminal consumption by sector, power towers are still relatively strong, while other sectors are relatively dull. After the previous sharp price decline, the downstream had a strong willingness to replenish raw materials, which to some extent reduced the subsequent demand space. It is expected that the apparent consumption peaked in April and will show a high - level contraction trend, putting pressure on the upper price limit [7]. - Fundamentally, it shows weak supply and demand. The supply - side production cuts and low social inventories support the near - end price. However, there is still an expectation of increased supply in the far - end, the inflection point of social inventories may come, and it will still operate weakly in the medium - and long - term, and the term spread also faces convergence pressure. For domestic and foreign zinc prices, the profit - loss ratio of domestic - foreign long - short arbitrage is appropriate, but attention should be paid to structural losses [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE Zinc main contract last week was 22,190 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.11%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,260 yuan/ton, with a night - session increase of 0.32%. The closing price of LmeS - Zinc 3 last week was 2,655.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.61% [8]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of SHFE Zinc main contract last Friday was 140,017 lots, an increase of 24,655 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 119,170 lots, an increase of 13,174 lots. The trading volume of LmeS - Zinc 3 last Friday was 6,713 lots, an increase of 1,517 lots compared with the previous week. The open interest was 213,170 lots, an increase of 4,608 lots [8]. - **Basis**: The LME zinc premium last Friday was - 26.13 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10.96 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The SHFE zinc basis showed different changes in different regions [8]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE zinc warrant inventory last week was 1,903 tons, a decrease of 451 tons compared with the previous week. The total SHFE zinc inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons. The LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a decrease of 3,475 tons. The bonded - area inventory was 7,600 tons, a decrease of 1,200 tons. The social inventory was 83,300 tons, an increase of 6,300 tons [8]. 3.2. Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore inventory has risen to a high level, while zinc ingot visible inventory is low. The port inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang and smelter raw material inventory are at relatively high levels, while the seven - region inventory and smelter finished - product inventory are relatively low [10][11]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profit is at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profit is at a medium - high level. Mining enterprise profit is stable in the short - term and at a historical medium level. Smelting profit has recovered and is at a historical medium level. The profit of galvanized pipe enterprises is stable and at a medium - low level in the same period [12][13]. - **Start - up Rate**: The smelting start - up rate has recovered to a high level, while the downstream start - up rate is at a historically low level. The zinc concentrate start - up rate has rebounded and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The refined zinc monthly start - up rate has rebounded and is at a high level in the same period. The start - up rates of downstream galvanizing and die - casting zinc have decreased and are at a historically low level [14][15]. 3.3. Trading Aspect - **Spot**: The spot premium has declined from a high level. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight increase in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M still shows a C structure [17][19]. - **Spread**: The near - end of SHFE Zinc shows a B structure, while the far - end is relatively flat [21]. - **Inventory**: The inventory shows a downward trend, and the open - interest - to - inventory ratio is relatively high. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in Singapore. The total LME inventory has decreased in the short - term and is at a historical medium level in the same period. The global zinc visible inventory has decreased [25][32][35]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a relatively high level in the same historical period [36]. 3.4. Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: Zinc concentrate imports are at a high level, domestic zinc ore production is at a medium - low level, and the processing fees of domestic and imported ores have rebounded. The ore arrival volume is at a high level, and smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a historical high level in the same period [39][40]. - **Refined Zinc**: Smelting profit has marginally recovered, and smelting output has marginally recovered. Refined zinc imports are at a historical medium level [41][44]. 3.5. Zinc Demand - **Consumption**: Refined zinc consumption is basically the same as the same period last year [49]. - **Downstream**: The downstream monthly start - up rate has slightly recovered, and most are at a medium - low level in the same historical period. The downstream raw material inventory and finished - product inventory show different trends in different sectors [50][52]. - **Terminal**: The real estate market is still at a low level, while the power grid shows structural increments [61]. 3.6. Overseas Factors - In Europe, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and carbon prices show different trends, and the profitability of zinc smelters in different countries also varies [63].