Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - Despite entering the consumption off - season, actual consumption is strong, social inventory shows no accumulation trend, and the overall situation is positive. Domestic mine supply is weak but supplemented by imported mines. The decline of imported mines continues, and it's hard for import TC to rise. Comprehensive smelting faces losses, so zinc ingot supply pressure is not obvious. Long - term consumption is promising, inventory pressure is low, and zinc price is undervalued with limited downward adjustment space [4]. 3. Summary by Category Spot Market - LME zinc spot premium is -$32.62/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,680 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day and a premium of 35 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,750 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton and a premium of 25 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,620 yuan/ton, with a change of 60 yuan/ton and a premium of -25 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On January 26, 2026, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 24,715 yuan/ton, closed at 24,725 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 207,921 lots, and the position was 121,627 lots. The highest price was 24,880 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 24,635 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - As of January 26, 2026, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 116,800 tons, a change of -2,000 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory was 111,325 tons, a change of -175 tons from the previous trading day [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The absolute valuation of zinc is low, and long - term macro factors are still bullish. The report remains optimistic about consumption. Although consumption enters the traditional off - season, zinc consumption maintains relative strength, and the inventory accumulation rate is slow. The supply pressure is expected to decrease quarter - on - quarter, and zinc shows relative resistance to decline under capital disturbances [4]. 3. Summary by Category Market Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is - $40.90 per ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 24,330 yuan per ton, up 190 yuan from the previous trading day, with a premium of 70 yuan per ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 24,290 yuan per ton, up 200 yuan, with a premium of 30 yuan per ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 24,260 yuan per ton, up 190 yuan, with a premium of 0 yuan per ton [1]. - **Futures**: On January 13, 2026, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 24,215 yuan per ton, closed at 24,235 yuan per ton, up 205 yuan. The trading volume was 152,709 lots, and the open interest was 68,022 lots. The highest price was 24,735 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 24,035 yuan per ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of January 13, 2026, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 118,300 tons, down 200 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,900 tons, up 100 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased slightly, and the enthusiasm for purchasing domestic ores has declined. The domestic ore TC remains stable, while the imported ore TC continues to decline. The Antamina's latest quotation is 0 - 10 dollars per ton. The raw material available days of smelters are not high, and the short - term TC is difficult to rise. The comprehensive smelting profit is difficult to repair, and the output in the first quarter may still be lower than expected, so the supply pressure is expected to continue to decrease quarter - on - quarter. Consumption enters the traditional off - season, but zinc consumption maintains relative strength, the inventory accumulation of social inventory is slow, and the spot premium remains [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [5] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TC of domestic zinc mines continues to decline, and although the zinc ore import window is open due to the convergence of internal and external price ratios after overseas zinc ingot centralized warehousing, the purchasing demand of smelters remains strong, and TC is expected to decline slightly. The current zinc price is undervalued with positive domestic and overseas expectations [1][2] - The production of domestic zinc mines has entered the winter production - reduction cycle, with the output in November 2025 being 311,400 metal tons, 12,000 tons less than expected. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7%. As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons [2] - In December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected due to the continuous decline of TC. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, but it is still expected to be in a net export state in December. The comprehensive smelting of zinc ingots still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots has shown a downward trend [3] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting, and zinc oxide have all increased slightly. In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.60%, and the cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Concentrate - In December, the domestic zinc concentrate TC dropped 550 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee index decreased from $61.25/ton to $43.75/ton. The price negotiation for January is still ongoing, and it is expected to decline slightly [2] - In November 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate output was 311,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 metal tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%, 12,000 tons less than expected. It is expected that the output in December will be 320,000 metal tons. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7% [2] - As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons. The raw material inventory of smelters was 388,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons, and the available days increased by 1.5 days to 22.3 days, but the available days of inventory are still low [2] Refined Zinc - According to SMM data, in December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected [3] - Due to the opening of the export window, in November 2025, China's net export of zinc ingots was 24,500 tons, and the cumulative net import from January to November was 228,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, and it is still expected to be in a net export state in December [3] - In terms of smelting profit, both domestic and imported TC have dropped significantly. Although the zinc price is oscillating strongly, the net smelting loss is still - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive smelting still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton [3] - The latest inventory of zinc ingots in seven places is 106,000 tons, with a destocking of 38,000 tons in December. The consumption in the off - season at the end of the year shows resilience. Even after the export window is closed, the inventory still shows a downward trend. The warrant inventory is 42,419 tons, the bonded area inventory is 3,300 tons, and the latest LME inventory is 107,625 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of more than 50,000 tons in December [3] Consumption End - The operating rate of galvanizing is 57.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the operating rate of die - casting is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%; the operating rate of zinc oxide is 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [4] - In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.53% and a year - on - year increase of 13.60%. The cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [5]