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沪锌期货早报-20250822
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 02:06
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年8月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85225791 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面:外媒6月18日消息, 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示,2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨,消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月,全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨,供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月,全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨;偏多。 2、基差:现货22260,基差+20;中性。 3、库存:8月21日LME锌库存较上日减少1875吨至69375吨,8月21日上期所 锌库存仓单较上日减少0吨至32288吨;偏多。 4、盘面:昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势,收20日均线之下, ...
锌锭社会库存持续增加
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 05:18
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and the demand in the spot market has not improved significantly, with mainly rigid - demand procurement. The cost of imported ore TC is rising, and the smelting profit is increasing, leading to an expected increase in supply. Although the downstream consumption shows some resilience, it cannot offset the high growth on the supply side, resulting in a continuous increase in social inventories. After the market sentiment fades, zinc prices are expected to return to the fundamental logic, and due to the consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is - 1.96 dollars/ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price dropped 120 yuan/ton to 22650 yuan/ton, and its premium rose 35 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price fell 160 yuan/ton to 22600 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased 5 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin zinc spot price declined 120 yuan/ton to 22600 yuan/ton, and its premium increased 35 yuan/ton to - 95 yuan/ton [2]. - **Futures**: On July 28, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22905 yuan/ton, closed at 22645 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 193107 lots, an increase of 41021 lots, and the position was 124461 lots, a decrease of 4767 lots. The highest price reached 22965 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22575 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of July 28, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 103700 tons, an increase of 11000 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 115500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons from the previous trading day [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Cost**: The new - month tender price of domestic ore has not been determined, while the imported ore TC is still rising, with the highest offer reaching 85 dollars/ton, and the smelting profit is increasing. The smelting plants have sufficient raw material reserves and low enthusiasm for ore procurement, so the TC is expected to continue rising [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The downstream consumption shows some resilience, but the high growth on the supply side leads to an increase in social inventories, and this trend is expected to continue in the second half of the year. Considering the consumption off - season and supply pressure, zinc prices face significant pressure [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5].
锌:上周价涨库存变 下行风险仍存
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 05:23
Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have continued to rise, with the Shanghai zinc index increasing by 0.62% to 22,676 yuan/ton, while the London zinc price rose by 18.5 to 2,684.5 USD/ton, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] Price and Inventory Summary - The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots is 23,180 yuan/ton, with various regional basis prices reported: Shanghai at 175 yuan/ton, Tianjin at 255 yuan/ton, and Guangdong at 430 yuan/ton [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded zinc ingot inventory at 0.32 thousand tons, while domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 85.8 thousand tons [1] - LME zinc ingot inventory stands at 182.3 thousand tons, with 31.7 thousand tons in canceled warrants [1] Market Dynamics - The domestic zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) is 3,450 yuan/metal ton, while the import TC is 40 USD/dry ton [1] - Zinc concentrate port inventory is at 287 thousand physical tons, and factory inventory is at 596 thousand physical tons [1] - The operating rate for galvanized structural components is 62.44%, with raw material inventory at 16 thousand tons and finished product inventory at 388 thousand tons [1] Future Outlook - Zinc mine inventory is increasing, and treatment charges are on the rise, maintaining expectations of oversupply in the zinc concentrate market [1] - Zinc ingot inventory is decreasing, with monthly differentials remaining high, indicating relative strength in the near term [1] - However, it is anticipated that downstream purchasing will gradually weaken after the peak seasons, coupled with pressure from imported zinc ingots, leading to potential accumulation of social inventory and downward risks for zinc prices [1]