瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 沪锌市场周报 采需平淡库存累增 预计锌价震荡调整 研究员： 王福辉 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力冲高回调，周线涨跌幅为2.99%，振幅4.79%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价23970元 /吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国劳动力市场未显明显压力，上周首次申请失业救济人数环比微增至20.8万，低于 预期21.2万；美债收益率反弹、美元四周新高。基本面，上游锌矿进口量高位，但国内锌矿年末减产；国 内炼厂采购国产矿竞争加大，国内外加工费均明显下跌，国内炼厂利润收缩，预计产量将继续受限。不过 近期伦锌价格回调，沪伦比值回升，出口窗口存在重新关闭可能。需求端，下游市场逐步转向淡季，地产 板块构成拖累，基建、家电板块也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需 采购为主，近期锌价快速走高，下游采购寡淡，现货升水偏高持稳，但国内库存回升明显；LME ...

2025 年 12 月 19 日 预期分化，把握确定性 ---2026 年锌期货年度行情展望 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源(联系人) 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：基于对全球锌供需的判断，2026 年锌价或破而后立，关注预期扭转下内外补库共振的开启。我们认 为供应侧矛盾将继续主导价格，消费空间走阔决定价格上方空间。当下已进入锌矿扩产尾声，叠加生产扰动增加，锌 矿增量空间相对有限，锌矿紧平衡或成为常态，也意味着 TC 的持续承压，明年 TC 上行空间或低于今年，锌价具备上 浮的弹性。关注一季度 TC BM 博弈阶段的供应端扰动，不排除出现超预期减产，或为价格注入上行催化。美联储技术 性扩表与降息周期节奏，国内 3 月份会议前的宏观预期也都深刻影响锌价。随着原料库存回归常态化，同时 TC 回升 带来炼厂利润修复，锌锭供应压力逐步体现，价格或出现阶段性调整。需要注意的是，明年锌的基本面相对脆弱，锌 元素仅有小幅过剩，一旦供应发生意外扰动，锌元素过剩预期极易发生扭转， ...

Group 1 - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Geermu West Mining Resources Development Co., Ltd., has recently obtained a mining license issued by the Qinghai Provincial Department of Natural Resources [1] - The mining license is valid from November 26, 2025, to November 25, 2044, covering an area of 9.3126 square kilometers [1] - The mining rights pertain to the Itwen Chahanxi C5 anomaly area, which contains iron, sulfur, copper, zinc, lead, and gold resources, with a total iron polymetallic resource of 20.07 million tons and an average grade of 31.59% iron [1] Group 2 - The acquisition of the mining license is a foundational step for the company to ensure sustainable development in the iron resource sector and will enhance its resource reserves for future integration and development [1] - The mine is expected to improve the company's risk resistance and market competitiveness, positively impacting its long-term development [1]

世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布的最新报告显示，2025年10月，全球锌板产量为119.28万吨，消费量为 121.96万吨，供应短缺2.67万吨。 2025年1-10月，全球锌板产量为1,156.20万吨，消费量为1,196.95万吨，供应短缺40.76万吨。 2025年10月，全球锌矿产量为108.91万吨,2025年1-10月，全球锌矿产量为1,105.49万吨。 ...

12月上半月，锌价逐步抬升，矿端边际收紧使得锌矿加工费快速下移，且受锌精矿供应偏紧提振，沪锌 主力合约最高涨至23730元／吨， LME期锌最高涨至3220美元／吨附近。 美联储12月如期降息25个基点，并启动短期国债购买计划，预计通胀将在明年一季度见顶，美元指数偏 弱运行，整体略利多锌价。日本央行本周加息概率较高，可能引发市场情绪变化。上周五夜盘，前期涨 幅较大的白银、铜、铝期价自高位回落，对锌价有所拖累。 锌矿加工费降至低位 相关数据显示，今年1—9月全球锌矿累计产量936.1万吨，增加6万吨，同比增加7.5%。国内11月锌精矿 产量31.14万吨，较10月下滑1.94万吨，同比增加5.2%；1—11月累计产量336.9万吨，同比减少1万吨， 降幅为1.7%。 近期，北方部分矿山已进入冬季减产状态，国产矿供应持续收紧。进口端，我国10月锌矿进口34.1万 吨，环比大降32.5%，同比增长3.3%，内外比价不佳，锌矿进口亏损较大，进口量缩减，进口主要来源 于秘鲁、澳大利亚和俄罗斯；1—10月累计进口434.89万吨，同比增长37.3%。 由于锌矿加工费快速走低，冶炼厂生产压力明显增大。12月以来，仍有部分炼 ...

Group 1 - In 2024, global copper production is projected to reach 23 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 1.77%, primarily driven by contributions from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Indonesia [1] - Global electrolytic aluminum production is expected to grow by 2.86% to 72 million tons in 2024, with China being the largest producer at 43 million tons, accounting for 59.72% of the total, an increase of 140,000 tons from 2023 [1] - Global lead ore production is forecasted to decline by 1.60% to 4.3 million tons in 2024, with China's lead ore production at 1.9 million tons, representing 44.19% of the global total [1] Group 2 - Zinc production is anticipated to continue its downward trend, decreasing by 0.83% to 12 million tons in 2024, with China contributing 33.33% of global zinc production [4] - Despite a general growth trend in global nickel production, it is expected to slightly decline by 1.33% to 3.7 million tons in 2024 due to the impact of low-cost nickel products from Indonesia, leading to production cuts in Australia and the Philippines [4] - Global tin production is projected to decrease by 1.64% to 300,000 tons in 2024, with major production concentrated in China, Indonesia, Peru, and Myanmar [4] Group 3 - China's copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc reserve-to-production ratios are significantly lower than the global average, with China's copper reserve-to-production ratio at approximately 22.78 years, compared to the global average of 42.61 years [7] - China's copper reserves account for only 4.18% of global reserves, totaling 41 million tons, with challenges including small ore bodies, low grades, and high extraction costs [7] - The aging of mines and declining ore grades are expected to impact China's copper production, which is projected to decrease by 1.1% to 1.8 million tons in 2024 [7]

锌矿延续偏紧， 宏观氛围积极 锌月报 2025/12/05 张世骄（有色金属组） 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估 04 需求分析 02 宏观分析 05 供需库存 03 供给分析 06 价格展望 01 月度评估 月度评估 ◆ 产业数据：锌精矿国产TC2050元/金属吨，进口TC指数61美元/干吨。锌精矿港口库存27.9万实物吨，锌精矿工厂库存64.4万实物吨。镀锌结构 件周度开工率录得56.54%，原料库存1.5万吨，成品库存36.6万吨。压铸锌合金周度开工率录得51.30%，原料库存1.3万吨，成品库存1.0万吨。 氧化锌周度开工率录得57.37%，原料库存0.2万吨，成品库存0.6万吨。 ◆ 总体来看：锌矿显性库存抬升，但锌精矿TC延续下行，锌冶利润承压，部分高成本锌冶炼厂减产。下游开工率边际下滑，虽然国内锌锭社会库 存小幅下滑，但综合计算在途库存及工厂库存后国内锌锭总库存小幅抬升。近日伦锌月间价差再度抬升，沪锌前20净多持仓提高，推动锌价短 期偏强运行。但从中期来看，锌产业偏 ...

Core Insights - The latest report from the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) indicates a global zinc supply shortage in September 2025, with production at 119.35 thousand tons and consumption at 122.92 thousand tons, resulting in a deficit of 3.57 thousand tons [1] - For the period from January to September 2025, global zinc production totaled 1,036.32 thousand tons, while consumption reached 1,073.69 thousand tons, leading to a supply shortfall of 37.37 thousand tons [1] - In September 2025, global zinc mine production was reported at 116.33 thousand tons, with a total of 996.47 thousand tons produced from January to September 2025 [1]

Group 1: Zinc Supply Dynamics - Zinc ore supply is tightening marginally, with domestic zinc concentrate production in October at 330,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.3% [2] - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) reported that global zinc ore production in August was 1,097,600 tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year increase of 13.1% [2] - Domestic zinc smelting plants are actively purchasing local ore due to a significant drop in processing fees, which fell to 2,600 yuan per metal ton, down 1,300 yuan from August's peak [2] Group 2: Refined Zinc Production - Global refined zinc production in August was 1,227,000 tons, with a monthly surplus of 47,900 tons [3] - Domestic refined zinc production in October was 617,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of approximately 21% [3] - The tightening zinc ore supply may lead to a slight reduction in refined zinc production as smelting plants face profit pressures [3] Group 3: Demand Trends - Overall demand from downstream processing enterprises remains stable, with some replenishment observed in mid-October when zinc prices fell [4] - However, the rising zinc prices in November may suppress downstream demand, particularly in the galvanized pipe sector due to weak steel prices and pressures in real estate and infrastructure [4] - Orders in sectors like power transmission and photovoltaic supports have shown resilience, while environmental factors may impact operational rates as winter approaches [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The macroeconomic environment requires attention to the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and precious metal trends affecting zinc prices [4] - Despite a lack of significant tightness in the market, the marginal changes in supply dynamics are expected to provide support for zinc prices [4] - Domestic inventories are slowly declining, and the current market sentiment may weaken, leading to potential volatility in zinc prices [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In November, domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly. With strong demand from smelters for ore procurement, TC is expected to decline further. - As TC drops, smelting comprehensive profit has been severely compressed, suppressing smelting enthusiasm and potentially reducing supply - side pressure more than expected. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory remains low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $152.26/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,570 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 45 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong and Tianjin zinc spot prices are 22,530 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of - 85 yuan/ton. [1] - **Futures**: On November 10, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,720 yuan/ton, closed at 22,670 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 104,875 lots, and the position was 110,752 lots. The highest price was 22,735 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,530 yuan/ton. [2] - **Inventory**: As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots is 159,600 tons, up 900 tons from the previous period. LME zinc inventory is 34,900 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. [3] Market Analysis - Domestic and overseas zinc ore TC decreased significantly in November. With strong procurement demand from smelters, TC is expected to decline further. - The smelting comprehensive profit has been compressed from about 1,400 yuan/ton to about 300 yuan/ton, and high - cost areas are facing losses, which will suppress smelting enthusiasm and reduce supply - side pressure. - Overseas warehouse receipt inventory is low with risks, and domestic inventory is falling, with a possible downward shift in the inventory center. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro - economic background remains favorable. [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. - Arbitrage: Neutral. [5]