锌周报 2025 年 8 月 25 日 风险偏好改善 锌价震荡偏强 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价止跌企稳。宏观面看，欧美 PMI 数据均 改善，经济韧性较足。同时杰克逊霍尔央行年会鲍威尔发 表讲话，市场解读偏鸽，美联储 9 月降息预期升温，改善 市场风险偏好。国内 A 股延续走强，资金热情较高，反内 卷情绪反复。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 9 基本面看，LME 库存延续回落，但月间结构未持续走强， ...

所有董事均已出席了审议本报告的董事会会议。 非标准审计意见提示 □适用 √不适用 董事会审议的报告期利润分配预案或公积金转增股本预案 □适用 √不适用 公司计划不派发现金红利，不送红股，不以公积金转增股本。 董事会决议通过的本报告期优先股利润分配预案 证券代码：000603 证券简称：盛达资源 公告编号：2025-046 一、重要提示 本半年度报告摘要来自半年度报告全文，为全面了解本公司的经营成果、财务状况及未来发展规划，投 资者应当到证监会指定媒体仔细阅读半年度报告全文。 □适用 √不适用 二、公司基本情况 1、公司简介 ■ 2、主要会计数据和财务指标 公司是否需追溯调整或重述以前年度会计数据 □是 √否 ■ 扣除股份支付影响后的净利润 ■ 3、公司股东数量及持股情况 单位：股 ■ 持股5%以上股东、前10名股东及前10名无限售流通股股东参与转融通业务出借股份情况 □适用 √不适用 前10名股东及前10名无限售流通股股东因转融通出借/归还原因导致较上期发生变化 □适用 √不适用 4、控股股东或实际控制人变更情况 控股股东报告期内变更 □适用 √不适用 公司报告期控股股东未发生变更。 实际控制人报告期内变更 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint Zinc ore's visible inventory is decreasing marginally, but the TC of zinc concentrate is still on an upward trend. The production schedule of zinc smelting is expected to be high, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots is rising rapidly. Downstream consumption shows no obvious improvement, and the domestic zinc ingot market remains in an oversupply situation. The registered zinc ingot warrants overseas have reached a new low since 2024, but the reduction rate has slowed down slightly, the monthly spread of LME zinc has decreased marginally, and the structural disturbances in the LME market are gradually subsiding. In the medium term, the scenario of industry oversupply remains unchanged, and zinc prices still face significant downward risks [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment - **Price Review**: Last Friday, the Shanghai Zinc Index closed up 0.15% at 22,521 yuan/ton, with a total open interest of 215,500 lots for unilateral trading. As of 15:00 on Friday afternoon, LME Zinc 3S rose 18.5 to $2,835.5/ton compared to the same period the previous day, with a total open interest of 193,700 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,450 yuan/ton, with a Shanghai basis of -50 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis of -60 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis of -70 yuan/ton. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 20 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals data, the domestic social inventory of zinc continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton. **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton. **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [11]. - **Industry Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index was $90/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 213,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory of zinc concentrate was 625,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons [11]. - **Industry Information**: South American mining company Nexa Resources announced that its Cerro Pasco integrated mining area, which includes the Atacocha and El Porvenir mines, was partially shut down temporarily due to an illegal blockade by a small number of people from the San Juan de Milpo community. The mines involved have an annual zinc production of 63,000 - 74,000 metal tons and lead production of 34,000 - 39,000 metal tons, and the current production guidance remains unchanged [11]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metals industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16][19]. 3. Supply Analysis - **Zinc Concentrate Supply**: In July 2025, the domestic zinc ore production was 346,800 metal tons, a year - on - year change of -5.68% and a month - on - month change of 7.53%. From January to July, the total zinc ore production was 2,080,500 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -2.27%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, a year - on - year change of 23.0% and a month - on - month change of -32.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ore was 2,533,500 dry tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 48.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of -13.8%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ore supply was 2,873,800 metal tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 13.5% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In July 2025, the zinc ingot production was 603,000 tons, a year - on - year change of 23.1% and a month - on - month change of 3%. From January to July, the total zinc ingot production was 3,843,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 4.7%. In June 2025, the net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, a year - on - year change of 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 50.9%. From January to June, the cumulative net import of zinc ingots was 196,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of -17.0%. In June 2025, the total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, a year - on - year change of 6.8% and a month - on - month change of 8.5%. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply was 3,436,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 0.5% [33][35]. 4. Demand Analysis The weekly operating rate of galvanized structural parts was 58.54%, with a raw material inventory of 13,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 372,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of die - cast zinc alloy was 47.61%, with a raw material inventory of 9,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 11,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of zinc oxide was 56.95%, with a raw material inventory of 2,000 tons and a finished product inventory of 6,000 tons. In June 2025, the apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.0%. From January to June, the cumulative apparent domestic demand for zinc ingots was 3,375,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year change of 2.7% [39][41]. 5. Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot Balance**: In June 2025, the domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 15,400 tons. From January to June, the cumulative domestic zinc ingot supply - demand difference was a surplus of 61,000 tons [52]. - **Overseas Zinc Ingot Balance**: In May 2025, the overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a shortage of -39,800 tons. From January to May, the cumulative overseas refined zinc supply - demand difference was a surplus of 47,300 tons [55]. 6. Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots continued to increase to 129,200 tons. The zinc ingot futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 20,000 tons, the basis in the Shanghai region of the domestic market was -50 yuan/ton, and the spread between the continuous contract and the first - month contract was -25 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: The LME zinc ingot inventory was 77,500 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 32,000 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract in the overseas market was -$0.56/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was -$2.97/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: After excluding exchange rates, the on - screen Shanghai - London ratio was 1.108, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was -2,025.53 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai Zinc has rebounded again. The net long position of investment funds in LME zinc has increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises has also increased. From the perspective of positions, it is bullish [69].

Group 1 - The company has submitted the renewal materials for its mining license, but the approval process is delayed due to the new Mineral Resources Law that will be implemented starting July 2025 [2] - The company is actively working to expedite the continuation of its mining license [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai zinc (ZN2509) is expected to oscillate and weaken in the short - term. The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc in an oscillating trend, with a star - shaped candlestick, shrinking trading volume, and both long and short positions reducing, with the reduction of short positions being slightly more. Technically, the price is above the long - term moving average with strong support, the short - term KDJ indicator is declining and operating in the weak area, the trend indicator is declining, the long - position strength is rising, the short - position strength is falling, and the long - and short - position forces are starting to be in a stalemate [2][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.153 million tons, consumption was 1.1302 million tons, with a supply surplus of 22,700 tons. From January to April, global zinc plate production was 4.4514 million tons, consumption was 4.5079 million tons, with a supply shortage of 56,500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4.0406 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The basis of spot zinc is +30 (spot price is 22,350), indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On August 1, LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,975 tons to 100,825 tons compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc inventory warrant decreased by 76 tons to 14,982 tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed an oscillating trend, closing below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, showing a bearish sign [2]. - The main net position is short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish sign [2]. Market Quotes Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Quotes on August 1 - For the zinc futures contract 2509, the previous settlement price was 22,440, the opening price was 22,300, the highest price was 22,425, the lowest price was 22,280, the closing price was 22,320, the settlement reference price was 22,345, down 120 compared to the previous settlement, with a trading volume of 105,121 lots, a trading value of 1.17465677 billion yuan, and an open interest of 108,084 lots, a decrease of 2,397 lots [3]. Domestic Main Spot Market Quotes on August 1 - The price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 17,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc ingot was 22,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of galvanized sheet in China was 4,100 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in China was 4,490 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27,360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of secondary zinc oxide in a certain area was 7,761 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan/ton [4]. National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (July 21 - July 31, 2025) - On July 31, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets was 844,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons compared to July 24 and an increase of 8,000 tons compared to July 28 [5]. Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on August 1 - The total zinc warrant in the SHFE was 14,982 tons, a decrease of 76 tons compared to the previous day. Among them, Shanghai had 25 tons, Guangdong had 3,511 tons, Jiangsu had 0 tons, and Tianjin had 11,446 tons [6]. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on July 31 - The LME zinc inventory decreased by 4,250 tons, with the current inventory at 104,675 tons, and the注销占比 (cancellation ratio) was 45.55% [8]. National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on August 1 - The price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, Kunming, Xi'an, and other places was mostly 17,020 yuan/ton, while in Hechi it was 16,820 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan/ton; in Longnan it was 16,970 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; in Liangshan Prefecture it was 17,020 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; in Chifeng it was 16,920 yuan/ton [10]. National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price Quotes on August 1 - The price of 0 zinc ingots (≥99.995%) from different smelters varied. For example, Hunan Muchuan Taihai's was 22,660 yuan/ton, Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry's was 22,800 yuan/ton, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan's was 22,390 yuan/ton [14]. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - The planned production value in June was 459,700 tons, the actual production was 471,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.67%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and 2.63% higher than the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production in July was 470,300 tons [16]. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Quotes on August 1 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee for 50% - grade varied by region. For example, in Xiangxi it was 3,700 - 3,900 yuan/metal ton, with an average of 3,800 yuan/metal ton; in Huludao it was 3,900 - 4,100 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 200 yuan/metal ton compared to before. The import processing fee for 48% - grade was 60 - 80 US dollars/kiloton, with an average of 70 US dollars/kiloton [18]. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking Table on August 1 - For the zn2509 contract, in terms of trading volume, CITIC Futures ranked first with 31,843 lots, a decrease of 19,494 lots compared to the previous day. In terms of long positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 9,405 lots, a decrease of 471 lots. In terms of short positions, CITIC Futures ranked first with 12,265 lots, a decrease of 606 lots [20].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the increasing trend of local state-owned enterprises (SOEs) engaging in mergers and acquisitions (M&A) of listed companies, driven by diverse motivations beyond mere financial metrics, such as enhancing industry advantages and attracting investment [1][6]. M&A Logic - In May 2025, Luoping Zinc Electric announced the sale of 22.396% of its shares to Qujing Development Investment Group, marking a shift in control from Luoping County's state-owned assets to Qujing City's state-owned assets [2][3]. - Local SOEs often target companies with a market value below 5 billion yuan to manage financial pressure during acquisitions [2][3]. Financial Performance - Luoping Zinc Electric reported negative net profits for three consecutive years, with figures of -236 million yuan in 2022, -209 million yuan in 2023, -79 million yuan in 2024, and -45 million yuan in Q1 2025, while its market value stood at 2.332 billion yuan as of July 31 [3]. Policy Environment - The regulatory environment has become more supportive of M&A activities, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission issuing guidelines to promote M&A and local governments formulating policies to encourage state-owned enterprises to invest in listed companies [4][5]. Investment Attraction - Attracting investment has emerged as a primary goal for many local SOEs, with initiatives to enhance collaboration with central enterprises, private firms, and foreign companies to optimize local investment environments [5][6]. Transformation of Investment Strategies - Local investment companies are shifting their focus from land finance to industrial strategies, as seen in the acquisition of Guangyang Co. by Huangshan Construction Investment Group, which aims to enhance competitiveness and optimize industry structure [7][8]. Economic Impact - The acquisition of Guangyang Co. is expected to create a manufacturing base for high-end automotive components, with an investment of 1 billion yuan and the establishment of a 1 billion yuan industrial fund, contributing significantly to local economic development [8][9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report In early 2016, the zinc industry cycle was characterized by tight zinc ore supply and loose zinc ingot supply, with strong expectations but weak reality. The introduction of supply - side reform policies coordinated with the industry cycle, leading to a significant bull market in zinc prices. Currently, the zinc industry is in a situation of loose supply of both zinc ore and zinc ingot, with weak expectations and reality. Although policies such as anti - involution, elimination of backward production capacity, and stable growth have been introduced, the zinc industry cycle fails to resonate with domestic macro - policies, making it difficult for zinc prices to show a sustained upward trend. With the expected increase in zinc ingot supply, if speculative sentiment cools down and the macro - environment weakens, zinc prices still face significant downward risks [1][26]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side: Loose Supply of Both Ore and Ingot - **Zinc Ore**: In the first half of the year, the increase in zinc ore supply mainly occurred overseas. From January to June in China, the cumulative year - on - year growth of net zinc ore imports was 48%, driving the cumulative year - on - year growth of total zinc ore supply to 13.5%. The significant growth in zinc ore supply is reflected in higher inventories than in previous years and rising processing fees. The current port inventory of zinc concentrates is 275,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory is 599,000 physical tons, with the total inventory increasing by 286,800 physical tons compared to the visible inventory of the same period last year. The current average domestic TC of zinc concentrates is 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the import TC index is 76 dollars/dry ton, increasing by 2,350 yuan/metal ton and 115 dollars/dry ton respectively compared to the low points of the same period last year [4]. - **Zinc Ingot**: The increase in zinc ingot supply lags behind that of zinc ore by about 4 months. China's smelting output began to rise in June. In June, the zinc ingot output was 585,100 tons, with a year - on - year change of 7.2% and a month - on - month change of 6.5%. With abundant raw materials, it is expected that the average monthly total supply of domestic zinc ingots will remain above 600,000 tons in the second half of the year. Due to relatively limited downstream demand, the visible inventory of domestic zinc ingots has been rising since early June. From June to July, the total inventory of domestic zinc ingots increased by 24,500 tons to 196,300 tons, and the basis and monthly spread of SHFE zinc also declined significantly [4]. Demand Side: Weak Reality with Marginally Strengthening Expectations - **Current Demand Situation**: The operating conditions of primary enterprises are worse than in previous years. The weekly operating rate of galvanized coils is 3% lower than the same period last year, and that of die - cast zinc alloy enterprises is 4.6% lower. However, some primary enterprises carried out strategic stockpiling as zinc prices declined. The sharp drop in zinc prices in the first half of 2025 brought forward the apparent demand for zinc ingots, and Trump's tariff policy brought forward galvanized exports. These early stockpiling/consumption behaviors may lead to weaker actual consumption in the second half of 2025 compared to the same period of previous years [12]. - **Demand Expectations**: The Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started on July 19, with a total investment of 1.2 trillion yuan. As a large - scale infrastructure project, it has increased the consumption expectation of zinc ingots to some extent. Zinc used in hydropower station construction is mainly for the anti - corrosion of metal structural parts. However, due to the long expected construction period of the project, the actual annual demand for zinc ingots is relatively limited, and it mainly has a boosting effect on market sentiment [12]. Market Sentiment and Capital Disturbance - **Overseas**: The Trump administration's influence on the Fed's monetary policy is increasing, raising the market's expectation of a loose Fed monetary policy, which provides some support for zinc prices. As the end - of - month Fed interest rate meeting approaches, the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision [17]. - **Domestic**: On July 18, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released a work plan for stable growth and elimination of backward production capacity. Coupled with the anti - involution policy, it has ignited a bull market in domestic bulk commodities. Polysilicon, coking coal, and other black - series commodities have all risen significantly. SHFE zinc, as a non - ferrous metal variety highly correlated with black - series commodities, has also been affected by market sentiment to some extent. After the July delivery in the domestic zinc market, the registered warehouse receipts of zinc ingots on the SHFE returned to over 10,000 tons, the monthly spread of SHFE zinc declined significantly, and the domestic structural risk decreased significantly. Since early July, the concentration of long positions in the LME zinc market has been relatively high. On July 21, the cancelled warehouse receipts of LME zinc increased by 38,400 tons, and the cancelled warehouse receipts dropped to a low of 58,300 tons, pushing the LME zinc monthly structure to strengthen continuously, and the overseas structural risk remains high. Under the pattern of weak domestic and strong overseas markets, the SHFE - LME ratio has continued to decline, and the zinc ingot import window has closed [17]. Comparison of Current and 2016 Market Conditions In 2016, the zinc industry entered a period of zinc ore shortage. According to SMM data, the average profit of zinc ore enterprises entered a loss since the second half of 2015, and in early 2016, the average profit was - 2,300 yuan/metal ton. The zinc ore processing fee was at a high level and showed a marginal weakening trend. Some high - cost zinc mines suffered severe losses. From the end of 2015 to early 2016, Glencore's zinc mines reduced production by 500,000 tons due to heavy losses, and MMG and Vedanta's zinc mines reduced production by 670,000 tons due to resource depletion. In contrast, the current zinc ore market is still in a state of oversupply. The average profit of SMM zinc ore is still 4,300 yuan/metal ton, and the zinc ore processing fee is on an upward trend without any signs of stagnation or weakening. According to the quarterly reports of overseas mining enterprises, the production of major mining enterprises is normal, and there is no tendency for profit - related production cuts [25].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Demand during the off - season is not weak, and consumption resilience supports market sentiment. China's apparent consumption is growing steadily, and the output of galvanized sheets is slowly recovering [3] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Zinc ore supply has rebounded more than expected, inventories are continuously accumulating, and the supply - demand pattern is in excess. Global consumption is differentiated, with a significant decline in demand in Western countries and high - level inventories [3] - **Trading Consultation View**: There is a divergence between the fundamental situation and macro - expectations, and there is no solid support for the upward movement of futures prices [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Processing and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: Information includes market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory (seasonal), and steel mill weekly output (seasonal) [5] - **Net Exports**: There are data on the seasonal net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [6][8] - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area are presented in terms of cumulative year - on - year changes, along with data on land transaction area and commercial housing transaction volume [11][13][16] - **Infrastructure**: Information on the completed amount of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) is provided [19] 3.2 Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume (seasonal), TC (treatment and refining charges), and raw material inventory days are included [22][24][29] - **Zinc Ingot**: Monthly output (seasonal), production + import volume (seasonal), and related inventory data such as LME, SHFE, and exchange inventories are presented, along with the production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises [26][27][30] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trends**: The trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, and the LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread are shown [32][34][36] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Information on the trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract is provided [33] - **Basis**: Data on the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations and the seasonal basis of Tianjin zinc ingots are presented [38][39]

Group 1: Zinc Price Trends - Zinc prices showed a downward trend in the first half of the year, influenced by increasing overseas mine supply and weak demand [2] - From late March to early April, zinc prices further declined due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies and a gradual increase in zinc mine output [2] - By April to June, the impact of U.S. tariffs lessened, but low inventory levels continued to affect prices, leading to a weak consolidation phase [2] Group 2: Zinc Supply Dynamics - Global zinc mine production increased by nearly 190,000 tons in the first four months of 2024, a year-on-year growth of 5.1%, primarily driven by the resumption of overseas mines [3] - Domestic zinc mine production decreased by nearly 30,000 tons year-on-year, slightly below expectations [3] - The cash cost of zinc mines at the 90th percentile is approximately $2,000 per ton, indicating a profit margin of nearly 30% based on average zinc prices [3] Group 3: Smelting and Refining Insights - Global zinc ingot production decreased by about 106,000 tons year-on-year in the first four months, with China's production down nearly 130,000 tons [3] - Zinc concentrate inventory at smelting plants increased by nearly 22% year-on-year by June, reaching historical highs [4] - The processing fee for zinc concentrate in China has risen to over 3,600 yuan per metal ton, indicating a recovery trend [4] Group 4: Demand Factors - Infrastructure investment remains stable, with significant growth in the electricity sector and a rebound in public facilities, while the transportation sector shows weakness [5] - The real estate market continues to be at a low point, with a declining share of zinc demand expected in 2025 [5] - Automotive production, sales, and exports have shown strong growth, but there are concerns about a potential slowdown in demand in the second half of the year [5] Group 5: Export Trends - Zinc product exports surged in the first half of the year due to U.S. tariff policies, with notable increases in galvanized sheets and zinc alloys [7] - However, as the export rush subsides and tariffs are implemented, there may be downward pressure on exports of primary zinc products [7] - Overall, the zinc market is expected to transition from a tight supply situation to a more relaxed one, with a clearer downward trend in zinc prices anticipated for 2025 [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - In terms of the macro - aspect, there are differences within the Fed. Some believe that the impact of tariffs on inflation will not be long - lasting, while others expect it to last until next year. Bentsen said Trump has unique abilities in identifying and solving problems but may lack patience in implementation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year [4]. - Fundamentally, the import volume of zinc ore at home and abroad has increased, and the zinc ore processing fee has continued to rise. Coupled with a significant increase in sulfuric acid prices, the smelter's profit has been further repaired, and production enthusiasm has increased. New production capacities in various regions have been gradually released, and the previously shut - down capacities have resumed production, leading to a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import window is closed, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream has entered the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has decreased year - on - year. Recently, zinc prices have been adjusting widely. Downstream buyers mainly purchase at low prices and still have a low acceptance of high - priced zinc. Domestic social inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium is at a low level. The LME zinc premium overseas has risen, and inventories have continued to decline, driving up domestic prices [4]. - Technically, positions have decreased, and both long and short sides are cautious. The price is oscillating within a range, and attention should be paid to the resistance at 22,500 [4]. - Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [4]. Summaries by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc declined and then rebounded this week, with a weekly change of -0.13% and an amplitude of 2.72%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,380 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the macro - aspect, Fed members have different views on tariff - related inflation. Two interest rate cuts are expected this year. Fundamentally, supply is increasing due to factors like increased zinc ore imports and processing fees. Demand is weak as it is the off - season. Technically, the price is in a range - bound oscillation [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Suggest waiting and seeing or conducting range operations [4]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of July 11, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from July 4, a decrease of 0.13%. As of July 10, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 2,777 dollars/ton, up 39 dollars/ton from July 4, an increase of 1.42%. The Shanghai - London ratio has decreased [9]. - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: As of July 11, 2025, the net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc were 33,000 lots, a decrease of 4,442 lots from July 4. The open interest was 252,089 lots, a decrease of 10,644 lots or 4.05% from July 4 [11]. - **Price Spreads**: As of July 11, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from July 4. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,305 yuan/ton, an increase of 190 yuan/ton from July 4 [18]. - **Premiums**: As of July 11, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 22,510 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from July 4, an increase of 0.09%. The spot premium was 5 yuan/ton, a decrease from last week. As of July 10, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 4.68 dollars/ton, an increase of 26.67 dollars/ton from July 3 [24]. - **Inventories**: As of July 11, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 105,250 tons, a decrease of 7,075 tons or 6.3% from July 4. Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventories were 49,981 tons, an increase of 4,617 tons or 10.18% from last week. As of July 10, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 72,500 tons, an increase of 8,900 tons or 13.99% from July 3 [27]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In April 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0192 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.61% and a year - on - year increase of 9.71%. In May 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 491,522.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64% and a year - on - year increase of 85.28% [31]. - **Supply - side**: - According to WBMS, there is a global shortage of refined zinc supply [32]. - In May 2025, China's zinc production was 583,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. From January to May, the cumulative zinc output was 2.919 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [39]. - In May 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 26,716.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.85%. The export volume was 1,414.24 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.97% [42]. - **Downstream**: - From January to May 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 769,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.49%. In May 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.3%. The export volume was 338,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.57% [45]. - From January to May 2025, the new housing construction area was 231.8361 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 22.95%. The housing completion area was 183.8514 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 40.94%. From January to May 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 4.023241 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 564.452 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5% [48][49]. - In May 2025, the real estate development climate index was 93.72, a decrease of 0.13 from the previous month and an increase of 1.81 from the same period last year. From January to May 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 10.42% year - on - year [53][54]. - In May 2025, refrigerator production was 8.51 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to May, the cumulative refrigerator production was 40.713 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. In May 2025, air - conditioner production was 29.48 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to May, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 134.909 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [56][57]. - In May 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 2,686,337 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.15%. The automobile production was 2,648,536 units, a year - on - year increase of 11.65% [61].