据路透社2月18日报道，美国已与乌兹别克斯坦签署协议，以确保更稳定地获取后者的关键矿产资源。 随着全球能源转型与科技革命加速推进，关键矿产已从单纯的工业原料跃升为重塑全球产业格局与地缘 政治版图的关键要素之一。在这一领域，各国合作与博弈的触角从非洲加丹加高原的铜钴富矿带延伸至 太平洋海底的多金属结核，从拉美安第斯山脉的"锂三角"延伸至中亚腹地的稀土矿床。《环球时报》从 今天起将推出"关键矿产博弈"系列报道，在"中亚篇"中，我们将为您讲述中亚五国蕴藏着怎样的关键矿 产资源，美国、欧盟、日本等在该地区如何落子布局，这场围绕关键矿产的博弈又将如何撬动国际能源 格局。 "跻身全球前20大战略资源生产国之列" 萨里塔格矿区位于塔吉克斯坦西部的陡峭山谷中。在海拔4000米山峰之下纵横交错的巷道中，矿工们正 奋力开采锑矿。这是一种银灰色的金属，曾经以化妆品成分而为人所知，如今已成为战略性产业的关键 资源，可被用于制造太阳能电池板和加固军用车辆装甲。 "塔吉克斯坦有许多锑矿床。"塔尔科黄金公司副总监朱马佐达对法新社这样说。该公司锑供应量占全球 10%。根据美国地质调查局的数据，2023年塔吉克斯坦锑产量约为2.1万吨，占全球 ...

【环球时报驻哈萨克斯坦特派记者 李强 环球时报特约记者 杨逸】 编者的话： 据路透社2月18日报道，美国已与乌兹别克斯坦签署协议，以确保更 稳定地获取后者的关键矿产资源。随着全球能源转型与科技革命加速推进，关键矿产已从单纯的工业原料跃升为重塑全球产业格局与地缘政治版 图的关键要素之一。在这一领域，各国合作与博弈的触角从非洲加丹加高原的铜钴富矿带延伸至太平洋海底的多金属结核，从拉美安第斯山脉 的"锂三角"延伸至中亚腹地的稀土矿床。《环球时报》从今天起将推出"关键矿产博弈"系列报道，在"中亚篇"中，我们将为您讲述中亚五国蕴藏 着怎样的关键矿产资源，美国、欧盟、日本等在该地区如何落子布局，这场围绕关键矿产的博弈又将如何撬动国际能源格局。 " 跻身全球前 20 大战略资源生产国之列 " 萨里塔格矿区位于塔吉克斯坦西部的陡峭山谷中。在海拔4000米山峰之下纵横交错的巷道中，矿工们正奋力开采锑矿。这是一种银灰色的金属， 曾经以化妆品成分而为人所知，如今已成为战略性产业的关键资源，可被用于制造太阳能电池板和加固军用车辆装甲。 "塔吉克斯坦有许多锑矿床。"塔尔科黄金公司副总监朱马佐达对法新社这样说。该公司锑供应量占全球10% ...

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reported a global zinc surplus of 29,000 tons in November 2025, with production at 1,197,000 tons and consumption at 1,168,000 tons [1] - For the period from January to November 2025, global zinc production totaled 12,756,100 tons, while consumption reached 13,106,500 tons, resulting in a shortage of 350,400 tons [1] - In November 2025, global zinc mine production was recorded at 1,069,000 tons [1] - The total global zinc mine production from January to November 2025 was 12,141,900 tons [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in zinc futures prices indicates potential short-term volatility, with various institutions providing differing outlooks on future price movements [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - On January 19, zinc futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 24,335.00 yuan and closing at 24,445.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 1.93% [1]. Group 2: Institutional Insights - **Shenwan Hongyuan Futures**: Anticipates a potential phase of price correction for zinc due to a combination of factors including a decrease in zinc concentrate processing fees, tight concentrate supply, and a high inventory of galvanized sheets. The overall supply-demand balance for zinc appears stable, suggesting a possible price pullback [2]. - **Wheaton Precious Metals Futures**: Highlights that zinc prices still have significant room for upward adjustment compared to copper and aluminum, despite a slight decrease in port inventories and processing fees. The current zinc-copper and zinc-aluminum ratios are at historical lows, indicating potential for price recovery [3]. - **CICC Wealth Futures**: Suggests that zinc prices may experience short-term fluctuations, driven by external factors such as expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks. The market is currently facing a tug-of-war between strong expectations and weak demand, with domestic zinc supply tightening providing some support for prices [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6] Core Views - Continuous focus on strategic opportunities in industrial metals is emphasized, with a recommendation to concentrate on the industrial metal sector as the market sentiment cools and volatility increases [9][14] - The zinc sector is highlighted as an overlooked foundational material in the context of de-globalization, with expectations for price increases due to improving supply-demand dynamics [9][14] - The copper sector is viewed positively in the medium term, with expectations for price and smelting fee improvements despite short-term fluctuations [9][15] - The aluminum sector is expected to benefit from supply chain security and competitive advantages, leading to potential valuation premiums [9][16] Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report suggests that industrial metals are entering a favorable strategic allocation period as copper prices approach 100,000 [9][14] - Zinc is expected to see price increases driven by demand from re-industrialization in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, despite domestic construction concerns [9][14] - Copper prices are anticipated to improve due to supply constraints, with significant copper mines expected to resume production in 2026 [9][15] - The aluminum sector is projected to experience steady profit growth due to enhanced supply chain security and rising aluminum prices [9][16] Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing a weak fundamental outlook as it approaches the seasonal low around the Spring Festival, with expectations for policy measures to support the sector [17] - Weekly rebar consumption increased by 8.79% week-on-week, indicating a marginal strengthening in demand [22] - Steel production saw a slight decrease, with iron output down by 0.65% and rebar production down by 0.39% [19][22] - Steel prices have shown a slight increase, with the overall steel price index rising by 0.15% [36] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate production in December 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 69.09%, indicating strong supply growth [40] - The demand for new energy vehicles remains robust, with production and sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [44] - Prices for lithium and cobalt have risen significantly, reflecting strong market demand [49][51]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rose and then pulled back, with a weekly gain of 2.99% and an amplitude of 4.79%. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will enter an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the support at MA10, with the range between 23,700 and 24,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc rose and then pulled back this week, with a weekly gain of 2.99% and an amplitude of 4.79%. The closing price of the main contract was 23,970 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US labor market shows no obvious pressure, the number of initial jobless claims last week increased slightly to 208,000, lower than the expected 212,000; US bond yields rebounded, and the US dollar reached a four - week high. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have both dropped significantly. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. Recently, the price of LME zinc has pulled back, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium is high and stable, but domestic inventories have rebounded significantly; the accumulation of LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, the bullish sentiment has declined, and there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 23,970 yuan/ton, up 695 yuan/ton or 2.99% from December 31, 2025; as of January 8, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,135 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton or 0.29% from January 2, 2026 [7] - **Net Position Adjustment**: As of January 9, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 4,778 lots, a decrease of 638 lots from December 31, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 218,053 lots, an increase of 22,611 lots or 11.57% from December 31, 2025 [14] - **Price Spreads**: As of January 9, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was - 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan/ton from December 31, 2025; the lead - zinc futures price spread was 6,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan/ton from December 31, 2025 [17] - **Spot Premiums**: As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,010 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton or 2.78% from December 31, 2025. The spot premium was 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of January 8, 2026, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was - 42.57 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.89 US dollars/ton from December 31, 2025 [23] - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 8, 2026, the LME refined zinc inventory was 108,000 tons, an increase of 375 tons or 0.35% from December 31, 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons or 4.34% from last week. As of January 8, 2026, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 113,300 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons or 4.04% from December 31, 2025 [26] 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In October 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [32] - **Supply Side** - **Global Supply Shortage**: In October 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.2187 million tons, an increase of 0.1084 million tons or 9.76% compared with the same period last year; the global refined zinc consumption was 1.2193 million tons, an increase of 0.0442 million tons or 3.76% compared with the same period last year; the global refined zinc gap was 0.06 million tons, compared with a gap of 0.0648 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report shows that the supply - demand balance of the global zinc market was - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [37][38] - **Expected Output Decline**: In November 2025, the zinc output was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%; from January to November, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [41] - **Increased Exports**: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%; the export volume of refined zinc was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [45] - **Downstream** - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 982,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.63%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%; the export volume was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [48][49] - **Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 8.514519 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%; among them, personal mortgage loans were 1.178591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [54][55] - **Infrastructure**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from the previous month and a decrease of 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [60][61] - **Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; from January to November, the cumulative refrigerator output was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; from January to November, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [63] - **Automobiles**: In November 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the automobile output was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [68]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, zinc prices may decline first and then rise. Pay attention to the start of the resonance of internal and external restocking under the reversal of expectations. The supply - side contradiction will continue to dominate the price, and the expansion of consumption space determines the upper limit of the price. [2][107] - The zinc ore market is approaching the end of the expansion cycle, and production disturbances are increasing. The incremental space of zinc ore is relatively limited, and the tight balance of zinc ore may become the norm, which means continuous pressure on TC. The upward space of TC in 2026 may be lower than that in 2025, and zinc prices have the elasticity to rise. [2][107] - The annual operating range of LME zinc is expected to be $2800 - 3400 per ton, and that of SHFE zinc is expected to be 21,000 - 25,000 yuan per ton. [2][107] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Review - In 2025, the market had a consistent expectation of zinc element surplus. At the beginning of the year, due to winter stockpiling and mine production increase expectations, processing fees rose, leading to an increase in smelter production expectations and a decline in zinc prices. In February - March, zinc prices fluctuated narrowly due to weak supply - demand. [8] - In the second quarter, zinc prices fell again due to unexpected US tariffs. After mid - April, prices gradually returned to fundamental pricing, and downstream buying interest was stimulated. In May, domestic smelter overhauls followed one after another, and prices were in a tangled consolidation. [9] - In the third quarter, global zinc ore production increased, and domestic refined zinc production continued to expand. However, the restart of the Fed's interest - rate cut and domestic economic policies provided support for zinc prices, which entered a sideways shock. Overseas smelters had difficulties in increasing production, and LME inventories continued to decline. [9] - In the fourth quarter, the refined zinc export window opened, but the actual export volume was lower than expected. The structural risk of overseas inventories still existed, and the price of LME zinc was relatively strong. At the same time, the shortage of ore supply increased, and TC accelerated downward, compressing smelter profits. [10][11] 3.2 Zinc Ore Incremental Space is Limited, and Tight Balance May Become the Main Theme 3.2.1 Zinc ore expansion is coming to an end, and production disturbances are increasing, resulting in limited incremental space for zinc ore - The zinc ore industry is in the stage of defensive capital expenditure, and the incremental scale of new zinc ore production has significantly narrowed compared with the past. Overseas zinc - mining enterprises have a weak willingness to make capital expenditures. [15] - Although the current LME zinc price can cover the profits of 99% of global mines, the low CAPEX in the past decade restricts the increase of zinc ore production, and the global ore production is sensitive to marginal disturbances. [17] - In 2025, global zinc ore production may increase by 500,000 tons, lower than the initial expectation. In 2026, it may increase by 400,000 tons, with limited incremental projects and structural differentiation. [22][23] 3.2.2 There is room for domestic zinc ore production increase, and the Huoshaoyun project is an additional variable - The Huoshaoyun project has uncertainties in production increase. Its ore is difficult to process, and the impact of the mine on the market is relatively limited. The production increase progress of its smelter is the key. [28] - Without considering the Huoshaoyun project, the actual new and restarted production capacity in 2025 may be about 50,000 tons, and the domestic mine increment may be the same as the previous year. Considering the project, there may be an increment of 30,000 - 50,000 tons in 2025 and 100,000 tons in 2026. [28] - In 2025, the cumulative import of zinc concentrates from January to October was 4.3489 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In the second half of the year, the import window closed, but in the fourth quarter, the import volume may have a certain recovery. [31] - Russia, Peru, and Australia are the main sources of domestic zinc ore imports. In 2026, the Ozernoye mine in Russia may contribute an increment of 100,000 tons, and Iranian mines may also have some incremental releases. [32] 3.2.3 Domestic zinc smelting capacity is continuously in surplus, and the gap between zinc ore production and demand is prominent - From January to November 2025, the cumulative production of refined zinc was 6.2815 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.69%. The annual output is expected to be 6.84 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 650,000 tons. [42] - In 2025, the expansion of zinc smelting capacity continued, with an expected incremental capacity of 430,000 tons. In 2026, there will still be some smelting capacity put into production, but the capacity utilization rate depends on smelting profits. [42] - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of refined zinc is declining, and low TC seriously erodes smelter profits, resulting in large - scale overhaul and production cuts. In 2026, the production of domestic smelters may increase, but the profit space of the smelting end may be further compressed. [42] 3.2.4 There is pressure on the increase of TC Benchmark, and the复产 space of overseas smelters is small - The market has different expectations for the increase of BM in 2026. It is expected that the BM in 2026 may be set at $80 - 100, and in a pessimistic scenario, it may remain at $80. [50] - European smelters' production remains stable, mainly depending on their own electricity prices. Asian smelters have a low cost and a willingness to resume production, but the expected BM may not provide good incentives for overseas smelters to resume production. [57][59] 3.3 In the First Year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, There is Room for Expansion in Domestic Consumption, and Overseas Consumption Continues to Recover 3.3.1 Fiscal policy supports domestic consumption, durable consumer goods have a weak recovery, and pay attention to the structural increment of UHV and ships - In 2025, fiscal policy increased its support for consumption, with the proportion of people's livelihood - related fiscal expenditures increasing. The issuance of local bonds was stable, but the funds flowing into infrastructure were squeezed to some extent. [72] - In 2025, fiscal policy was pre - exerted, and the policy intensity was insufficient in the second half of the year. In 2026, it is expected that fiscal policy will continue to be strong, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to reach 3.6%. [78] - The real estate market is still in the stage of adjustment and bottom - building, and its drag on zinc consumption is weakening. It is expected that the real estate policy will be further relaxed in 2026, but the zinc consumption at the completion end may still be negative, with a growth rate of - 13.8%. [85] 3.3.2 Overseas consumption continues a weak recovery, and pay attention to the growth of emerging countries - The US inventory replenishment cycle stimulates demand. The Fed's interest - rate cut restarts, which stimulates enterprise investment and household consumption. The US real estate market may have a mild recovery in 2026, and the zinc consumption chain is expected to maintain an inertial growth rate. [92] - India's zinc consumption has increased rapidly. In the 2025/2026 fiscal year, India's infrastructure capital expenditure has reached a record high, which will continuously drive the demand for zinc consumption. [98] 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance - For the supply increment in 2026, attention should be paid to the structural differentiation of mine increments and the uncertainty of supply release. The Huoshaoyun project and the output of mines in Russia and Iran are uncertain factors affecting the balance sheet. [101][102] - In 2026, it is expected that policies will further boost consumption, and the consumption end still has room for expansion. The infrastructure industry is the key support for zinc consumption, and the real estate industry's drag on zinc consumption is weakening. [102] - Domestically, the supply growth rate slows down, consumption space is optimistic, and there is only a slight surplus of zinc ingots. Overseas, smelters have limited restarts, consumption continues to recover, and the overseas surplus may be higher than that in China. [103][104] 3.5 Conclusions and Outlook - In 2026, zinc prices may decline first and then rise. Pay attention to the resonance of internal and external restocking. The supply - side contradiction dominates the price, and consumption space determines the upper limit of the price. [106][107] - The investment outlook includes a long - only strategy on dips or buying call options for single - side trading; for term arbitrage, there are opportunities for positive term arbitrage in the Shanghai zinc market; for internal - external trading, there is still uncertainty, and phased internal - external reverse arbitrage can be carried out based on the idea of opening the domestic zinc ore import window. [3][108]

Group 1 - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Geermu West Mining Resources Development Co., Ltd., has recently obtained a mining license issued by the Qinghai Provincial Department of Natural Resources [1] - The mining license is valid from November 26, 2025, to November 25, 2044, covering an area of 9.3126 square kilometers [1] - The mining rights pertain to the Itwen Chahanxi C5 anomaly area, which contains iron, sulfur, copper, zinc, lead, and gold resources, with a total iron polymetallic resource of 20.07 million tons and an average grade of 31.59% iron [1] Group 2 - The acquisition of the mining license is a foundational step for the company to ensure sustainable development in the iron resource sector and will enhance its resource reserves for future integration and development [1] - The mine is expected to improve the company's risk resistance and market competitiveness, positively impacting its long-term development [1]

Core Insights - The World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) reports a global zinc plate production of 1,192.8 thousand tons and a consumption of 1,219.6 thousand tons in October 2025, resulting in a supply shortfall of 26.7 thousand tons [1] - For the period from January to October 2025, global zinc plate production reached 11,562.0 thousand tons, while consumption was 11,969.5 thousand tons, leading to a cumulative supply deficit of 407.6 thousand tons [1] - In October 2025, global zinc mine production was recorded at 1,089.1 thousand tons, with a total production of 11,054.9 thousand tons from January to October 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices are gradually increasing due to tightening supply at the mining level, leading to a rapid decline in zinc processing fees and a boost from tight zinc concentrate supply, with the Shanghai zinc main contract reaching a peak of 23,730 yuan/ton and LME zinc hitting around 3,220 USD/ton [1] Group 1: Zinc Mining and Processing Fees - Global zinc mine production from January to September reached 9.361 million tons, an increase of 60,000 tons or 7.5% year-on-year [2] - Domestic zinc concentrate production in November was 311,400 tons, down 19,400 tons from October but up 5.2% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November was 3.369 million tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 1.7% year-on-year [2] - Domestic zinc processing fees have rapidly declined to 1,600 yuan/metal ton, while imported processing fees have also decreased to 50.56 USD/dry ton [2] Group 2: Domestic Refining and Production - Global refined zinc production in September was 1.195 million tons, showing a slight month-on-month decrease, with a cumulative production of 10.29 million tons from January to September [3] - In November, China's refined zinc production was 595,200 tons, down 22,000 tons month-on-month but up 16.7% year-on-year; cumulative production from January to November was 6.2816 million tons, an increase of 607,000 tons or 10.7% year-on-year [3] - Some domestic refineries are reducing production due to rapidly declining processing fees, with theoretical production losses approaching 2,000 yuan/ton [3] Group 3: Inventory Trends - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has been continuously declining, with social inventory at 125,700 tons as of December 15, down 20,000 tons from the end of November [4] - LME zinc inventory has shown a slight increase after reaching a low point in October, with total inventory at 64,500 tons [4] - The operating rate of galvanizing enterprises has slightly rebounded, driven by strong demand for certain products, while some downstream sectors are experiencing weaker demand [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The supply side is tightening, providing stronger support for zinc prices, while short-term attention is needed on external pressures [5]