Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team, including Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, and Yu Feifei [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Shanghai zinc led the decline in non - ferrous metals. The main contract closed at 22,120 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%. It showed increased volume and open interest, with open interest increasing by 14,140 lots to 118,873 lots. The net short position of the top 20 long - short positions in total open interest increased by 6,418 lots. The fundamentals changed little, with zinc ore processing fees rising continuously and zinc ingot production remaining at a high level. The demand side was supported by policies but was weak in the short term. Production restrictions in North China suppressed galvanized consumption. The pressure of supply - demand surplus was reflected in inventory. Social inventory increased by 0.26 million tons to 14.89 million tons on Thursday. LME zinc inventory decreased by 475 tons to 54,750 tons, the lowest level since May 2023, with a 0 - 3 spread of B18.78. Despite the macro - level interest rate cut expectation and continuous de - stocking at LME, the weak fundamentals of Shanghai zinc could not resonate. Shanghai zinc is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term and may test the 22,000 - yuan integer mark again [7] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,210 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,100 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,275 yuan/ton, the lowest was 21,970 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan or 0.79%, with an open interest of 8,355 lots, down 1,255 lots; for SHFE zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,240 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,325 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,000 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan or 0.83%, with an open interest of 118,873 lots, up 14,140 lots; for SHFE zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,280 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,120 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,330 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,010 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan or 0.81%, with an open interest of 70,099 lots, up 3,819 lots [7] 2. Industry News - On September 4, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, that of Shuangyan was 22,120 - 22,340 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was 21,910 - 22,110 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the SMM average price. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was at par to the 2510 contract, Huize was at a premium of 50 - 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 120 - 140 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was about 21,980 - 22,170 yuan/ton. Regular brands were quoted at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton to Shanghai spot. In the first period, Qilin was quoted at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract for delivery, Hualian/Jiulong was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton for delivery, and Anning was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was 21,930 - 22,170 yuan/ton, that of Zijin was 21,980 - 22,180 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,880 - 22,090 yuan/ton. Huludao was quoted at 22,570 yuan/ton. Ordinary 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 30 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Zijin was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, and Tianjin market was at a discount of about 10 yuan/ton to Shanghai market [8] - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,910 - 22,155 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 65 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and at par to Shanghai spot, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. In the first period, holders quoted a discount of 90 - 45 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, Feilong, and Lanxing; in the second period, the discount was 90 - 55 yuan/ton [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions (in million tons), and LME zinc inventory (in tons), with data sources including Wind and SMM, as well as the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [10][11][12]

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices have been fluctuating within a range following a significant drop due to tariff announcements, with domestic zinc prices hovering between 21,900-22,800 CNY/ton and LME zinc prices around 2,700 USD/ton, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments rather than strong fundamental pressures [2][8]. Macroeconomic Factors - The US-China trade talks made significant progress in mid-May, with both sides agreeing to suspend additional tariffs for 90 days. However, the US has threatened to impose a 50% tariff on the EU starting June 1, causing short-term volatility in financial markets [3]. - The bond market is showing signs of panic, with Japan's 20-year bond auction underperforming and Moody's downgrading the US credit rating, leading to a decline in the US dollar, US bonds, and US stocks simultaneously [3]. - China's social financing and M2 growth rates are stable, but new RMB loan data is disappointing, indicating a potential slowdown in key economic indicators [3]. Supply Side Dynamics - Global zinc mine production reached 1.0184 million tons in March, a month-on-month increase of 10.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.6%. The cumulative production from January to March was 2.902 million tons, up 3.75% year-on-year [4]. - China's zinc concentrate production in April was 297,700 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 6.6%. Zinc ore imports surged to 494,700 tons in April, a 37.6% month-on-month increase and a 72.6% year-on-year increase [4]. - Domestic smelters are experiencing a rise in processing fees due to ample supply from both imported and domestic sources, with processing fees for domestic zinc concentrate averaging 3,650 CNY/ton in June [4]. Production Stability - Global refined zinc production in March was 1.1219 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 9.7% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.9%. China's refined zinc production in April was 576,000 tons, a slight decrease from March but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [5]. - The profitability of smelters has improved, with production losses remaining below 500 CNY/ton, leading to expectations of increased production in the near future [5]. Inventory Levels - Domestic refined zinc inventories are gradually declining, with SMM's seven-city zinc ingot inventory at 80,400 tons as of May 22, which is low compared to previous years [6]. - LME zinc inventories have also seen a slight increase but remain at a low level, which may provide some support for zinc prices [6]. Demand Trends - Demand is showing signs of weakening as the peak season ends, with the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises recovering to around 62%, while die-casting zinc alloy enterprises have seen a drop to 56.41% [7]. - The construction sector remains stable, with a narrowing year-on-year decline in new housing starts and steady growth in infrastructure investment [7]. - However, production in the white goods sector has seen limited growth, with significant declines in refrigerator and television production [7]. Summary - Overall, the impact of tariffs is diminishing, and a weaker dollar is providing some support for non-ferrous metals. Despite low inventories providing price support, the expectation of increased supply against weak demand suggests that zinc prices may struggle to rise significantly in the short term, likely remaining in a weak oscillation [8][9].