1. Report Details - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 22, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] 3. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core View - Despite the narrowing decline of the zinc futures due to the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector, the industry has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The market is expected to continue digesting previous gains, with short - term technical support at the 24,000 yuan/ton level [7] 5. Section Summaries 5.1 Market Review - In the futures market, the main contract of SHFE zinc closed at 24,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.2%. The trading volume increased while the open interest decreased by 4,200 to 121,693 lots. On January 21, LME zinc inventory decreased by 450 tons to 111,850 tons, with LME0 - 3C at 43.57 and the SHFE - LME ratio at 7.62. On the industry side, the zinc ore import window is open, but the actual increase in imported ore is limited, and the processing fee for imported ore continues to decline. The decline in TC has slowed down and may be near the bottom. In December, refined zinc production decreased significantly, and although it is expected to rise slightly in January, the zinc ingot import window remains closed, so supply pressure is limited. On the demand side, the start - up rate of primary consumption has declined. After the end of environmental protection policies, affected enterprises may resume production, but due to the seasonal off - season and high zinc prices squeezing downstream profit margins, some enterprises have entered equipment maintenance and holiday mode, and the recovery of production is expected to be limited [7] 5.2 Industry News - On January 21, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 24,145 - 24,355 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was 24,075 - 24,285 yuan/ton. In different regions, such as Ningbo, Tianjin, and Guangdong, the transaction prices and premium/discount situations vary [8][9] 5.3 Data Overview - The report presents figures on the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [13][17]

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: January 20, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market has gradually digested the news of LME suspending Korea Zinc's delivery permission, and the market sentiment in the confrontation between the US and Europe has become cautious. Short - term long - term funds have loosened. The long - short game in the market has intensified, and the combination of mood withdrawal and high - price suppression effects has led to a high - level correction. The short - term technical support can be focused on the 24,000 yuan/ton line [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: The main contract of SHFE Zinc closed at 24,450 yuan/ton, down 475 yuan or 1.91%, with shrinking volume and reduced positions. The trading volume decreased by 13,597 lots to 128,677 lots. Among them, the 2602 contract closed at 24,410 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan or 1.75%; the 2604 contract closed at 24,490 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan or 1.75% [7] - **Industry Aspects**: As the SHFE - LME ratio rebounds, the zinc ore import window continues to open, but the actual increase in imported ore is limited due to the constraint of previous import losses. The imported ore processing fee continues to decline, and the weekly average domestic TC is flat at 1,500 yuan/metal ton. The decline of the overall TC has eased and may be approaching the stage bottom. The refined zinc output in December decreased significantly. Although the output in January is expected to rise slightly, the zinc ingot import window is still closed, and the supply pressure is limited [7] - **Demand Side**: Affected by the environmental protection warning in the north and high zinc prices, the primary consumption start - up has declined. After the end of the environmental protection production - restriction policy this week, affected enterprises may gradually resume production. However, in the seasonal off - season and with high zinc prices squeezing the profit space of downstream enterprises, some enterprises have entered equipment maintenance and holiday in advance, and the start - up recovery is expected to be limited [7] 2. Industry News - On January 19, 2026, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated at 24,135 - 24,280 yuan/ton, Shuangyan was traded at 24,325 - 24,480 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc was traded at 24,065 - 24,210 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were almost no quotes against the market [8] - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at about 24,165 - 24,280 yuan/ton. The conventional brand in Ningbo quoted a premium of 175 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract and a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in the Ningbo area quoted against the 2602 contract [8] - In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded at 24,010 - 24,180 yuan/ton, Zijin was traded at 24,050 - 24,230 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots were traded at around 23,880 - 24,020 yuan/ton. Zijin quoted a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, Hu zinc quoted around 25,640 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, 0 zinc ingots quoted around 10 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a discount of around 70 yuan/ton to the Shanghai market [8] - In Guangdong, 0 zinc was mainly traded at 23,955 - 24,175 yuan/ton, and the mainstream brand quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the 2602 contract. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong has narrowed [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides information about data sources including Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures, and mentions some data charts such as the weekly inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and SHFE monthly spreads, but no specific data content is given [10][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines reduce production at the end of the year. Domestic smelters face increased competition in purchasing domestic ores, and both domestic and foreign processing fees have significantly declined. Domestic smelter profits are shrinking, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. However, the recent decline in LME zinc prices and the rebound of the SHFE-LME ratio may lead to the re - closure of the export window. [3] - On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening. The policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. Downstream markets mainly purchase on demand at low prices. The recent rapid increase in zinc prices has led to weak downstream purchasing, a decline in spot premiums, a slight decrease in domestic inventories, stable LME zinc inventories, and low spot premiums. [3] - Technically, with increasing trading volume and open interest, prices are rising, showing a strong bullish sentiment and breaking through the upper edge of the upward channel. It is expected that SHFE zinc will have a strong adjustment. Pay attention to the support of MA10, with the range of 24,500 - 25,500 yuan/ton. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 25,090 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 615 yuan/ton. The price difference between the 02 - 03 contracts of SHFE zinc is - 45 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5 yuan/ton. [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,276 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 74.5 US dollars/ton. The total open interest of SHFE zinc is 260,851 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 27,188 lots. [3] - The net open interest of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 4,378 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 734 lots. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons. [3] - The SHFE inventory is 73,852 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4,059 tons. The LME inventory is 106,725 tons, with a day - on - day decrease of 175 tons. [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 25,410 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 840 yuan/ton. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 26,230 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,460 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 320 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 225 yuan/ton. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 14.32 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 5.03 US dollars/ton. [3] - The ex - works price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21,470 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 220 yuan/ton. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 300 yuan/ton. [3] Upstream Situation - According to WBMS, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is - 35,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 14,700 tons. According to ILZSG, the monthly zinc supply - demand balance is 20,300 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 27,600 tons. [3] - The global zinc mine output in the current month (monthly) is 1,066,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 31,000 tons. The domestic refined zinc output is 665,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons. [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 340,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 164,500 tons. [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 18,836.76 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,840.75 tons. The refined zinc export volume is 8,518.67 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 6,040.84 tons. [3] - The social zinc inventory is 111,700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,600 tons. [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets in the current month is 2.34 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons. The sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.42 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 140,000 tons. [3] - The newly started housing area is 534.567 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 43.9531 million square meters. The completed housing area is 348.61 million square meters, with a month - on - month increase of 37.3212 million square meters. [3] - The automobile production is 3.519 million vehicles, with a month - on - month increase of 240,000 vehicles. The air - conditioner production is 14.204 million units, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.8908 million units. [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 28.68%, with a month - on - month increase of 5.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 28.67%, with a month - on - month increase of 5 percentage points. [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 21.26%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.79 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 12.62%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.06 percentage points. [3] Industry News - In the US, retail sales in November unexpectedly strengthened, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6%. The growth was significantly driven by automobile and holiday consumption. Rising energy costs pushed the US PPI in November to rebound to 3% year - on - year, and the core PPI was lower than expected month - on - month. Existing home sales in December reached the strongest level since 2023, far exceeding expectations, and the housing price increase was the weakest in two and a half years. [3] - In 2026, Fed voter Kashkari supported Powell and advocated keeping interest rates unchanged in January. Voter Paulson maintained a cautious stance. In 2025, voter Goolsbee emphasized the importance of independence in combating inflation. Fed Governor Milan found a new reason for interest rate cuts: the deregulation of the Trump administration. [3] - China's foreign trade has accelerated its recovery. In December, exports denominated in US dollars increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 5.7% year - on - year. Steel exports reached a new high, and rare earth exports increased by 32% year - on - year. The annual imports of soybeans, iron ore, and crude oil all broke records, while the decline in coal imports was the largest in a decade. [3]

Market Overview - As of January 2, the London Metal Exchange (LME) reported zinc registered warehouse stocks at 97,925 tons, with cancellations of 8,400 tons, resulting in a net decrease of 750 tons. Total zinc inventory stands at 106,325 tons, down by 1,300 tons [1] - The Shanghai zinc futures inventory recorded 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Production Forecast - Refined zinc production is projected to be 552,100 tons in December 2025, which is below expectations. However, production is expected to increase to 569,400 tons in January 2026 [3] Institutional Insights - According to Nanhua Futures, the overall market sentiment is warming. The treatment charges (TC) have stabilized due to the opening of the import window, but are expected to decline in January. The domestic raw material supply remains tight in the short term, while the supply side is expected to loosen in the long term. High zinc prices are suppressing downstream consumption, and domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts is providing support for Shanghai zinc prices. The outlook suggests that while low domestic inventory supports prices, there is a lack of upward driving force in the fundamentals, leading to a range-bound market [4] - Guangzhou Futures anticipates that the medium to long-term focus for zinc prices will gradually shift upward. However, due to the traditional off-season in the first quarter, short-term upward potential is limited. Prices are expected to trend upward after the holiday, followed by a transition into a range-bound market [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach or a long - position thinking [3] 2. Core View - On the supply side, domestic and foreign zinc ore imports are rising, the growth of zinc ore processing fees is slowing down, the sulfuric acid price has increased significantly, smelters have large profit margins and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and refined zinc production has reached a high level. However, overseas zinc ore is tight, import losses continue to expand, the inflow of imported zinc decreases, and the export window is expected to open. On the demand side, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden September and Silver October" is weak, the real estate sector is a drag, while policies in the automotive and home appliance sectors bring some bright spots. Domestic social inventories have increased, post - holiday market demand remains weak, and the spot premium is at a low level. LME inventories continue to decline, the spot premium has reached a 27 - year high, and the tight situation has intensified [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc futures contract is 22,000 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 10 - 11 - month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is 305 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,993.5 dollars/ton, up 17.5 dollars. The total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 229,833 lots, up 299 lots. The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is - 2,935 lots, down 540 lots. Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 65,209 tons, down 1,059 tons. The SHFE inventory is 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons, and the LME inventory is 37,275 tons, down 50 tons [3] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 21,900 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,780 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan. The basis of the main ZN contract is - 100 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is 299.34 dollars/ton, up 69.05 dollars. The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan, and the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,750 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3上游情况 - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons. The domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. Zinc ore imports are 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3] 3.4产业情况 - Refined zinc imports are 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons, and refined zinc exports are 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. The social zinc inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons [3] 3.5下游情况 - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons, and the sales volume is 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons. The monthly new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, and the monthly housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. The monthly automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles, and the monthly air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3] 3.6期权市场 - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 12.03%, down 1.25 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 8.42%, up 0.09 percentage points, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.31%, unchanged [3] 3.7行业消息 - Trump plans to visit China early next year, and the Foreign Ministry has no information to provide. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao had video talks with EU and Dutch officials on trade issues. Reuters survey expects the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Overseas mine production is increasing smoothly, with expected growth of 40 - 50 tons in H2 and 5 tons from domestic mines, leading to a global zinc ore surplus of over 20 tons [5]. - Smelting losses have rapidly recovered, and overall smelting profits are expanding, with expected supply growth of around 15% in H2 and 7.4% for the whole year [4][5]. - Consumption was strong in H1, with an expected annual growth rate of 1.2%. However, the consumption intensity is still difficult to match the supply growth rate [4]. - Inventory is at a historical low, with apparent consumption stronger than actual consumption. As zinc alloy inventory increases and supply pressure grows, a negative feedback loop is expected [4][6]. - The strategy is to short and wait for the accumulation of social inventory [8]. Summary Based on Directory Zinc Ore - Overseas mainstream zinc mines are increasing production normally, and the year - on - year growth is expected to accelerate. In Q1, overseas mine production was 114 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5 tons (4.5%). In H2, overseas production is expected to increase by 40 - 50 tons year - on - year [11]. - Domestic zinc mines contribute limited incremental output, with an expected annual increase of only 5 tons [11]. - From January to May, domestic zinc ore production was 139.8 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5 tons, but the production rate and output are rising. From January to May, imported zinc ore was 220.4 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 52.5% [12]. Refined Zinc - During the off - season, the spot premium is weakening, indicating supply pressure. From January to June, China's refined zinc production was 324 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of only 1.9%. In July, the estimated output is 59 tons, with a possible year - on - year growth rate of 20%. The expected annual output for 2025 is 665 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.4% [31]. - Smelting losses have been rapidly repaired, and the rise in by - product prices has further expanded smelting profits. The industry - weighted smelting profit can reach 1,300 yuan/ton, increasing smelting enthusiasm [44]. - Zinc ingot inventory is at a low level, but there is a possibility of invisible inventory becoming visible. As supply growth is expected to remain around 15% in H2, a trend of inventory accumulation is expected during the off - season [47]. Downstream Consumption - Exports are driving galvanized consumption. From January to May, China's galvanized strip net exports were 547.4 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14.7%. Although there may be some consumption overdraft, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about overseas consumption [52]. - Zinc alloy integration is hiding visible inventory. While zinc consumption has shown positive growth, it is still difficult to match the supply growth rate. As consumption weakens during the off - season, a negative feedback loop is expected, and the invisible inventory of zinc alloy will turn into visible inventory [59]. Terminal Consumption - Infrastructure investment is supporting consumption. From January to May, China's fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 10.4% year - on - year, with power grid investment increasing by 19.8% year - on - year, driving the demand for domestic galvanized towers [7][62]. - The automotive industry has consumption pre - empted. From January to May, China's automobile production increased by 12.7% year - on - year, but the channel inventory increased from 2.26 million to 2.59 million, indicating possible consumption pre - empted [7]. - The photovoltaic sector may see marginal improvement. From January to May, China's photovoltaic installed capacity was 198GW, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 times. Although the current consumption is at its lowest, there is a possibility of marginal repair in the later period [7]. - The home appliance sector has over - consumed. State subsidies in H1 drove home appliance and automobile consumption, but there is an issue of over - consumption [7].