来源：市场资讯 （来源：瑞达期货研究院） 瑞达期货研究院 异动情况： 今年10月开始，沪锡价格涨势明显加快。并且11月10日以来，沪锡出现大幅拉升，截至目前SN2512涨 幅约4.7%；同时沪锡加权持仓增加约3.4万手，持仓量接近2025年4月份水平，显示市场成交活跃度明显 上升。 异动分析： 此前9月30日，印尼锡出口商协会预计2025年精炼锡出口量将达5.3万公吨，较上年的4.5万吨大幅增长 18%。当时，印尼1-9月精炼锡累计出口3.8万吨，因此四季度存在约1.5万吨出口供应预期。而11月11 日，印尼贸易部公布的数据显示，印尼10月份精炼锡出口量为 2643.05 公吨，比去年同期下降 53.89%。因此10月精炼锡出口反而出现大幅下降，缓解此前市场对供应增长的担忧。 观点看法： 总体来看，近期锡价上涨主要由供需两端共同推动。需求端，下游在价格回调阶段显现逢低采购意愿， 带动社会库存持续去化，尤其在刚需支撑下，即便价格上涨亦未明显抑制实际采购；供应端，此前印尼 出口增长预期较强，但10月实际出口量大幅下滑，显著缓解了四季度供应压力预期。因此，在库存持续 下降与海外供应压力减缓的双重支撑下，推动锡价短期 ...

Group 1: Supply Dynamics - The slow recovery of tin production in Myanmar's Wa State and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining are exacerbating the supply tightness of tin ore [1][2] - China's tin concentrate imports have been declining, with September 2025 imports at 8,714 tons, down 29.8% month-on-month and 17.7% year-on-year [2] - Indonesia's tin production is projected to be around 50,000 tons in 2024, accounting for approximately 16.7% of global tin concentrate production, which will further impact global supply [2] Group 2: Processing Fees and Market Conditions - The processing fees for tin concentrate in Yunnan and Jiangxi are at 12,000 yuan/ton and 8,000 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting the tight domestic supply and supporting tin prices [2] - The current processing fees are at their lowest level in nearly three years, indicating a tight supply situation [2] Group 3: Refined Tin Production - The total refined tin production from 18 domestic smelting plants was 14,044 tons in September 2025, down 18.1% month-on-month but up 16.6% year-on-year [3] - In the first nine months of 2025, these sample enterprises produced a total of 153,000 tons of refined tin, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [3] Group 4: Consumption Trends - The chemical sector accounts for about 20% of total refined tin consumption, with PVC production being a significant driver, although the real estate market's performance has been weak [4] - The soldering materials sector represents about 40% of refined tin consumption, with demand expected to rise due to the recovery of the semiconductor industry and strong performance in the automotive market [4] - In the first nine months of 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 24.05 million and 24.36 million units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 10.9% and 12.9% [4] Group 5: Price Outlook - Given the favorable factors in the market, tin prices are expected to break through the 285,000 yuan/ton level in the short term [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the price of tin has increased by 2% in a single day, reaching $36,375 per ton [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bullish outlook for the tin market in the medium term, advising investors to adopt a long - position strategy [4]. 2) Core Viewpoints - The disruption in the Indonesian tin supply and the slow recovery of overseas tin mines, combined with macro - economic factors, have led to a shortage in the global tin supply, causing tin prices to soar. The supply is expected to remain tight before mid - October, and the tin price may continue to strengthen. The复产 speed of the Burmese tin mines may determine the supply elasticity of tin, and if the Indonesian crackdown exceeds expectations or the Burmese复产 is further delayed, the tin price may break through the previous high [2][4]. 3) Summary by Related Aspects Indonesian Supply - Indonesia, the world's largest tin exporter (accounting for over 25% of global supply), has intensified the global tin supply shortage. The Indonesian president ordered the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines on September 29 and plans to crack down on 80% of illegal mining activities. The illegal mine closure may widen the global tin mine supply gap to over 8000 tons in the fourth quarter. In August, Indonesia's tin ingot exports were 3246.46 tons, a 14.39% month - on - month decrease, and exports are expected to continue to decline significantly [2]. Burmese Supply - The复产 of Burmese tin mines is progressing slowly. In August, China imported only 2091 tons of tin ore from Burma, a 27.72% year - on - year decrease, accounting for only 20% of the total domestic imports. Due to the rainy season, equipment shortages, and explosive controls, the actual output remains low, and the output increase is expected to be realized in November [4]. Domestic Supply - Overseas tin mine supply recovery is slow, and domestic raw material supply is tight. Domestic smelter operating rates are continuously decreasing. Yunnan tin smelters have been on a 45 - day maintenance since August 30, and Jiangxi's refined tin output remains low due to a shortage of scrap and crude tin. Domestic smelter output is expected to recover around mid - October, and the low LME tin inventory cannot be quickly replenished [4]. Macroeconomic Factors - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 93%. The weakening US dollar and the expectation of loose liquidity have boosted the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector [4].