Group 1 - After the Spring Festival holiday, the main contract of Shanghai tin futures recorded a "four consecutive days of gains," closing up 8.38% on Friday and breaking through the 450,000 yuan/ton mark, with a cumulative increase of 19.19% for the week [11][14] - The weakening of the US dollar index has provided significant support for the rise in tin prices, as the index has continuously declined after a failed rebound during the holiday period [5][13] - The overall strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector post-holiday is attributed to market expectations that tin may be included in the key mineral pricing plan by the Trump administration, despite it not being part of the initial list [5][14] Group 2 - Supply concerns are heightened due to slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines and a significant drop in Indonesia's tin exports, which fell to a nearly four-year low in January [6][14] - Domestic tin smelting plants have seen a significant drop in operating rates due to the Spring Festival, with some enterprises halting production for maintenance [6][14] - Demand from downstream solder enterprises has been weak, with many resuming operations later than usual, leading to a low operating rate for lead-acid battery companies during the holiday [15] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the market may experience a high-level fluctuation in the short term due to weak supply and demand dynamics, with tin prices lacking sustainability for further increases [15] - The short-term price pressure for Shanghai tin is identified between 420,000 to 450,000 yuan/ton, while support is seen between 330,000 to 350,000 yuan/ton [7][15] - The potential for technical corrections due to profit-taking is noted, alongside the need to monitor inventory changes and demand recovery closely [7][15]

Core Viewpoint - The price of tin on the London Metal Exchange increased by over 6% on February 27, reaching $57,525 per ton [1] Group 1 - The significant rise in tin prices indicates a strong demand or potential supply constraints in the market [1]

Group 1 - LME metal futures experienced a general decline, with copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel all reporting losses, while tin showed resilience with a five-day consecutive increase [1] - As of the close, London copper was priced at $13,259, down $90.5, a decrease of 0.68%; London aluminum was at $3,141.5, down $33, a decrease of 1.04%; London zinc was at $3,366.5, down $20.5, a decrease of 0.61%; London lead was at $1,979, down $16.5, a decrease of 0.83%; London tin was at $54,385, up $470, an increase of 0.87%; London nickel was at $17,730, down $315, a decrease of 1.75% [1]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals generally rose, with the exception of zinc, which fell by 0.04%. Tin led the gains with a 7.62% increase, followed by nickel at 2.32%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - In the black metal sector, all commodities saw increases of over 1%, with iron ore up 1.42%, stainless steel up 1.24%, rebar up 1.72%, and hot-rolled coil up 1.19%. Both coking coal and coke rose by 2.32% [1] - On the external market, base metals also showed an upward trend, with tin leading at 5.27% and nickel up by 1%. Other metals had gains of less than 1% [1] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 0.68% and silver by 3.42%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold fell by 0.04%, while silver rose by 4.57% [1] Additional Metals - Platinum rose by 7.03%, and palladium increased by 4.5% [2] Macro Environment - The Shanghai Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Committee and other departments issued a notice to optimize real estate policies, effective from February 26, 2026, aimed at meeting housing demand and promoting market stability [5][6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 4.095 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40% [6] Oil Market - As of 15:04, both WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased, with WTI up 0.55% and Brent up 0.54%. Traders are preparing for upcoming US-Iran talks [9] - The API reported a crude oil inventory of 11.427 million barrels for the week ending February 20, against an expectation of 1.25 million barrels [9]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the news is the significant price increase in tin futures, with the Shanghai tin futures rising over 6% and the London tin prices increasing over 4% [1][2] Group 1: Price Movements - Shanghai tin futures have surged more than 6%, currently priced at 411,400 yuan per ton [1][2] - London tin prices have increased by over 4%, currently at 52,450 dollars per ton [1][2]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals experienced a general increase, with the exception of lead, which fell by 0.18%. Nickel led the gains with a rise of 1.3%, while other metals saw increases of less than 1% [1] - Lithium carbonate futures surged by 10.56% near the close, while polysilicon dropped by 4.03% and industrial silicon rose by 0.54% [1] - In the black metal sector, most commodities declined, with stainless steel increasing by 1.84%, while iron ore fell by 1.79% and rebar and hot-rolled coil both saw declines of around 0.8% [1] - Internationally, base metals were also up, with tin leading at 3.78%, followed by nickel at 2.4% and copper at 1.38% [1] - Precious metals showed mixed results, with COMEX gold down by 0.68% and COMEX silver up by 1.68%. In the domestic market, Shanghai gold rose by 3.52% and Shanghai silver surged by 12.84% [1][2] Macro Environment - The Ministry of Commerce announced the inclusion of 20 Japanese entities in an export control list to safeguard national security, prohibiting exports of dual-use items to these entities [5] - The People's Bank of China conducted a net withdrawal of 9.264 billion yuan through reverse repos, maintaining the operation rate at 1.40% [6] - The US dollar index rose by 0.07% to 97.8, with reports indicating potential new tariffs on several industries by the US government under the guise of national security [7] - Oil prices increased slightly, with WTI up by 0.66% and Brent up by 0.65%, as the market assesses the negotiation landscape between the US and Iran [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a general decline, with the exception of tin, which saw an increase in price [1] Group 1: Price Movements - LME copper closed at $12,901, down $99, a decrease of 0.76% [1] - LME aluminum closed at $3,091, down $14.5, a decrease of 0.47% [1] - LME zinc closed at $3,345.5, down $32.5, a decrease of 0.96% [1] - LME lead closed at $1,952, down $14.5, a decrease of 0.74% [1] - LME tin closed at $47,370, up $630, an increase of 1.35% [1] - LME nickel closed at $17,285, down $150, a decrease of 0.86% [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a widespread decline, with nickel and tin leading the drop, and copper reaching a one-week low [1] Group 1: Price Movements - London copper closed at $12,855.5, down $383.5, a decrease of 2.90% [1] - London aluminum closed at $3,097.5, down $19.5, a decrease of 0.63% [1] - London zinc closed at $3,381.5, down $36.5, a decrease of 1.07% [1] - London lead closed at $1,984, down $10.5, a decrease of 0.53% [1] - London tin closed at $47,800, down $2,265, a decrease of 4.52% [1] - London nickel closed at $17,250, down $815, a decrease of 4.51% [1]

Core Viewpoint - LME metal futures experienced a broad increase, with nickel leading the gains, reaching a nearly two-week high, and lead rising for four consecutive days [1] Group 1: Price Movements - As of the close, copper was reported at $13,239, up $139, a rise of 1.06% [1] - Aluminum closed at $3,117, increasing by $12, reflecting a 0.39% gain [1] - Zinc was reported at $3,418, up $20, marking a 0.59% increase [1] - Lead reached $1,994.5, gaining $17, which is an increase of 0.86% [1] - Tin was reported at $50,065, up $835, showing a rise of 1.70% [1] - Nickel closed at $18,065, increasing by $515, a rise of 2.93% [1]