沪锡冲高回落，维持区间波动，主力合约收涨0.09%，报收2646900元/吨。刚果(金)Bisie锡矿分阶段复 产，首批锡精矿预计6月才能进入冶炼环节，短期内锡矿供应紧张局面难以缓解，预计5月精炼锡产量将 环比下降。但需求端也未见明显改善，锡市基本面供需双弱，锡价延续横盘整理态势。 根据SMM通过深入市场调研的加工数据，截至上周五，云南与江西两个重要产锡省份的精炼锡冶炼企 业的开工率保持在较低水平，合计开工率达56.44%。云南地区当前40%品位锡精矿加工费（TC）维持 历史低位区间，原生矿冶炼企业利润空间被严重挤压。云南个旧等地的冶炼厂因原料短缺和成本压力， 部分进入季节性检修或减产状态，周度开工率已降至65.48%，较前一周显著下降。云南冶炼企业原料 库存普遍低于30天，部分企业因前期囤货面临高库存压力，但下游接单意愿低迷，导致出货困难。 需求端，目前未见明显改善，传统领域承压，电子、家电等焊料需求受高锡价及中美贸易摩擦抑制，下 游企业维持刚需采购，现货成交延续"高升水、低成交"格局。新能源领域支撑，光伏焊带及新能源汽车 需求保持高增速，但短期增量难以对冲传统消费疲软。此外，光伏市场在抢装结束后也有走弱预 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In April, tin prices fluctuated extremely in the first half - month and then narrowed in the second half - month. The market focus has shifted to demand. The tin market is treated as a rebound, with strong resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply easing and consumption concerns, and short - selling is the main strategy. In May, tin prices will mainly complete the right - shoulder shock pattern, with obvious resistance above and a possible downward shift in the lower trading low [18]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information 1.1 Tin Concentrate Supply - Myanmar's Wa State promotes the resumption of production at the Manxiang Mine. The new mining license fee standard has increased significantly, which may put pressure on low - altitude mines and small and medium - sized concentrators, while large enterprises have an advantage [1]. - Alphamin's Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa) has resumed tin production, which accounts for about 6% of the world's annual tin production [2]. - Xingye Yinxi's wholly - owned subsidiary, Yinman Mining, resumed production on April 16 after a safety accident in March [2]. - Malaysia Smelting Corporation (MSC) temporarily suspended production due to a gas pipeline explosion on April 1. In 2024, its refined tin output was 16,300 tons, and this event may cause delays in tin metal delivery [3]. - In March 2025, China's tin ore imports remained at a low level. The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 8,322.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 64% and a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. From January to March, the cumulative import volume was 26,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 55% [4]. 1.2 Refined Tin Production and Import - Export Trends - In March, Mysteel's survey of 20 domestic tin smelters showed that the refined tin output was 14,590 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.92% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.96%. From January to March, the cumulative output was 43,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.7%. In April, the planned output is expected to be 14,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4% [5]. - In March, Indonesia's tin ingot exports returned to the high - level range of last year, with 5,780.14 tons exported, a year - on - year increase of 49.8% [5]. - In March, China's tin ingot imports increased, exports decreased, and net imports turned positive. The import volume of unforged non - alloy tin was 2,094 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.02% and a year - on - year increase of 145.67%. The export volume was 1,673 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 29.51% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99%. In March, the net import of refined tin was 421 tons, and the cumulative net import in the first quarter was 119 tons [6]. - In the first quarter, Yunnan Tin Company's net profit was 499 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 53.08%. It is expected to produce 90,000 tons of tin products, 125,000 tons of copper products, 131,600 tons of zinc products, and 102.3 tons of indium ingots in 2025, with a budgeted operating income of 46.5 billion yuan [6]. 1.3 Consumption and Balance - The Yunnan Provincial Grain and Material Reserves Bureau and Yunnan Tin Group signed a tin and indium metal reserve agreement to jointly promote the establishment of a "Yunnan model" for non - ferrous metal reserves [7]. - According to WBMS, in February 2025, the global refined tin supply had a surplus of 1,100 tons. From January to February, there was a supply shortage of 2,500 tons. In February, the global tin ore output was 25,600 tons, and from January to February, it was 51,200 tons [8]. 2. Weekly Report Trends 2.1 April 7 - **Price Trend**: After the earthquake in Myanmar, the Wa State postponed the early - April resumption investment conference. Driven by funds, the tin market rose, with LME tin reaching a maximum of $38,395 and SHFE tin weighted index hitting 299,700 yuan. However, affected by the US - China tariff risk, LME tin gave back all its gains and closed at $35,000 [9]. - **Upstream Supply**: Malaysia Smelting Group suspended production due to a gas pipeline accident. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was concentrated at 11,000 yuan/ton, and smelters' raw material inventories were at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production schedule of domestic smelters in April and the resumption news from the Wa State [9]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Due to the high price, point - pricing by tin - related downstream enterprises above 290,000 yuan basically stopped. Domestic SMM tin social inventory increased to 12,000 tons, while LME tin inventory dropped to 2,990 tons. The risk of a short squeeze increased, but it was difficult in the short term [9]. - **Outlook**: The global tin market has many supply - related topics, but current consumption is average. It is recommended that downstream enterprises conduct point - pricing below 270,000 yuan. Tin prices are still in a high - level volatile state, and the trend depends on supply changes [10]. 2.2 April 14 - **Price Trend**: In the past two weeks, tin prices fluctuated greatly. Affected by the US - China tariff and Alphamin's resumption of production, LME tin dropped to a minimum of $28,900, and SHFE tin weighted index fell to 236,000 yuan. Then, due to tight domestic tin resources and tariff game, prices rebounded quickly, and SHFE tin oscillated above 260,000 yuan [11]. - **Upstream Supply**: Although tin prices resisted multiple supply - side impacts, the impact of systematic risks on prices was large, indicating that the market focus has shifted to demand. Alphamin is resuming production, and attention should be paid to actual supply changes [12]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Uncertainty in demand increased due to potential US tariffs on the semiconductor industry. Domestic SMM tin social inventory decreased slightly to 11,600 tons, and LME tin inventory increased to 3,140 tons [12]. - **Outlook**: The tin market is treated as a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell and wait for supply changes [12]. 2.3 April 21 - **Price Trend**: Although SHFE tin rebounded on Monday, the overall price oscillated, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. LME tin was weaker than SHFE tin, and attention should be paid to its performance at $32,500 [13]. - **Upstream Supply**: The tin market is still in a tight supply situation. In March, domestic tin concentrate imports decreased year - on - year. Domestic smelters' raw material inventories were tight, and it was expected that April's refined tin output might decrease. Yinman Mining resumed production, and Alphamin gave up its 20,000 - ton annual output target [13]. - **Downstream Consumption**: Consumption in the semiconductor industry is highly uncertain. Due to the price fluctuations last week, downstream enterprises replenished their inventories, and steel - linked tin social inventory decreased to 10,600 tons. Attention should be paid to pre - holiday inventory replenishment before May Day [14]. - **Outlook**: The tin market is regarded as a rebound, with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. It is recommended to short - sell, and the medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply and consumption concerns [14]. 2.4 April 28 - **Price Trend**: Last week, domestic and international tin prices oscillated, with a narrowing fluctuation range. The weekly increase was over 2%. SHFE tin was stronger than LME tin, and SHFE tin weighted index oscillated above the 250 - day moving average, but the overall position decreased significantly. LME tin failed to break through $32,000 [16]. - **Upstream Supply**: In March, domestic tin concentrate imports continued to decline year - on - year. The weekly operating rates of refined tin production in Yunnan and Jiangxi were weak, and it was expected that April's tin output would drop to 14,000 tons. The import window for refined tin opened, and net imports might continue in April. The Wa State promoted the resumption of production, and the new fee standard might promote the large - scale and intensive development of the Manxiang Mine [16]. - **Downstream Consumption**: The global semiconductor consumption index has changed. LME tin inventory slowly decreased to 2,810 tons. Domestic SMM social inventory decreased slightly to 10,413 tons. The market is not optimistic about pre - May Day tin inventory replenishment. South Korea's export data was revised down, and there is high uncertainty in domestic photovoltaic and home appliance production schedules [17]. - **Outlook**: Overseas tin prices are weaker. The tin market is a rebound, and it is recommended to short - sell with resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply and consumption factors [17]. 3. Conclusions and Outlook - In April, tin prices fluctuated extremely in the first half - month and then narrowed in the second half - month. The market focus has shifted to demand. The tin market is treated as a rebound, with strong resistance at 265,000 - 270,000 yuan. The medium - and long - term trend will be pressured by supply easing and consumption concerns, and short - selling is the main strategy. In May, tin prices will mainly complete the right - shoulder shock pattern, with obvious resistance above and a possible downward shift in the lower trading low [18][19].