Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the long - term supply expectation of tin has relaxed, the short - term tightness in the ore end has not been fundamentally improved. The tin price is expected to be strongly supported at the bottom and may still fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, if the resumption and new production of major tin - producing areas proceed smoothly, the supply - demand of tin may ease, but it is still expected to remain in a tight state, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. In the long term, the ore end is difficult to see significant growth, and with strong demand, the center of the tin price is expected to show an upward trend [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On March 3, 2026, the tin price had a significant correction. The Shanghai tin main contract fell 2.0% to 394,890 yuan/ton at the close. The main reasons were the expected loosening of supply in major producing areas and the weak overall market sentiment, which triggered the departure of long - position funds [2][3] - The Indonesian Mineral and Coal General Bureau set the 2026 tin production target at 65,860 tons, higher than the previous quota of 60,000 tons, improving the supply expectation. On February 27, Wa State in Myanmar accelerated the resumption of production in high - grade tin mining areas at low altitudes, and the subsequent ore output is expected to increase [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the domestic ore end is still tight, restricting refined tin production. As of February 27, the processing fee for 60% grade tin ore was 10,000 yuan/ton, and that for 40% grade was 14,000 yuan/ton, remaining at a relatively low level. In January, the domestic refined tin production was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%, and the domestic tin smelter operating rate was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points [3] - Recently, the visible inventory of tin has accumulated. As of March 2, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,531 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,470 tons [3] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the tight ore end has led to a shortage of raw materials for smelters and low tin ore processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin production. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in areas such as new energy vehicles continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [4] - Strategy: Wait for the tin price to adjust in place, and then continue to focus on low - buying and long - position operations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoint - This week, the tin price rose significantly due to supply - side disturbances. Although the emerging fields such as AI servers have optimistic demand for tin, the industry is still in the post - holiday resumption transition period, and the real demand has not been effectively reflected. Considering the marginal relaxation of tin ingot supply and demand and the recent steady increase in inventory, it is not advisable to blindly chase high. In the short term, the tin price is expected to operate in a wide range at a high level. The reference operating range for domestic main contracts is 370,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47,000 - 55,000 US dollars/ton [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - Cost side: In December 2025, the increment of imported tin concentrates in China was obvious, and the shortage of raw material supply was alleviated. The physical quantity of imported tin concentrates was 17,637 tons, equivalent to 5,191.6 tons of metal, with a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. Imports from different regions had different changes [12] - Supply side: During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of smelters in Yunnan decreased and the recovery after the festival was slow. Jiangxi was still affected by the shortage of scrap supply, with tight crude tin supply and low refined tin output. Overall, the operating rate of domestic smelters remained stable [12] - Demand side: After the festival, downstream enterprises gradually resumed work, but the willingness to inquire and place orders was low, with strong wait - and - see sentiment. Transactions were mainly for rigid demand, and the overall market trading was light. The global visible tin inventory increased seasonally. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with before the festival; LME tin inventory was 7,550 tons, a decrease of 125 tons compared with the same period last month [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - This week, the spot price of tin fluctuated with the futures, and the premium and discount remained stable [19] 3. Cost Side - The monthly average domestic tin ore output fluctuated around 6,000 tons. The processing fee of tin concentrates rebounded from a low level. The processing fee of 40 - degree tin ore in Yunnan increased from 7,000 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, reflecting the marginal alleviation of tin ore shortage [24][27] 4. Supply Side - The output of domestic refined tin and recycled tin remained basically stable. In January, the output of domestic refined tin was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%; the output of recycled tin was 3,320 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6%. Affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were at a low level. In December 2025, the import volume of domestic refined tin was 1,547.75 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 48.25% [32][35][41] 5. Demand Side - In December, the year - on - year growth rate of China's semiconductor sales continued to rise, and the global semiconductor sales maintained high growth. In terms of consumer electronics, in December, the output of domestic PC was 31.4 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 348.5 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%; the output of domestic smartphones was 126.54 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%, and the cumulative output from January to December was 1.2695 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. In the white - goods sector, the sales volume of washing machines increased rapidly, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.8% in the first 12 months. Other products performed relatively average. The cumulative year - on - year increase of air conditioners was 0.7%, that of refrigerators was 1.6%, and that of color TVs decreased by 2.6%. The combined year - on - year growth rate of the four major household appliances decreased by 0.2%. In the tin - consumption fields, the tin consumption in the tinplate field decreased slightly year - on - year, and the PVC output increased slightly year - on - year in 2025. In December, the operating rate of downstream solder enterprises remained stable, and the apparent consumption increased slightly month - on - month [46][49][52] 6. Supply - Demand Balance - After the Spring Festival, the global visible tin inventory level increased steadily. As of February 27, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 13,456 tons, an increase of 1,570 tons compared with the previous Friday [67]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, under the background of supply tightening, tin prices are expected to fluctuate, with the price movement range between 360,000 - 500,000 yuan per ton. It is not recommended to chase high now. If the tin price adjusts later, it can be continuously concerned. In the medium - term, if the resumption and new production in the main tin - producing areas go smoothly, tin supply and demand may ease but still maintain a tight balance, with increasing callback risks and high - level fluctuations in tin prices. In the long - term, with obvious increase in mine supply and strong demand, the central price of tin is expected to show an upward trend [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 27, 2026, tin prices continued to rise sharply. The Shanghai tin main contract rose 8.88% to 453,240 yuan per ton. The main reason for the rise is the intensification of armed conflicts in Myanmar, which has caused concerns about tin ore supply. However, the conflict mainly occurred in non - main tin - producing areas, so it is considered that it will not have an obvious impact on tin ore production for the time being [3] 2. Fundamental Situation - Currently, the domestic mine end is in a tight situation, which restricts the output of refined tin. As of February 13, the processing fee for 60% grade tin ore is 10,000 yuan per ton, and that for 40% grade is 14,000 yuan per ton, remaining at a relatively low level. In January, domestic refined tin output was 14,382 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.74%; the domestic tin smelter start - up rate was 56.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points. Recently, the explicit inventory of tin has accumulated. As of February 26, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory was 11,556 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 7,575 tons [4] 3. Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the mine end is continuously tightening, resulting in raw material shortages for smelters and low tin ore processing fees, making it difficult to increase refined tin output. In terms of demand, the semiconductor industry maintains high growth, consumption in new energy vehicles and other fields continues to rise, and considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand is expected to continue to grow [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The supply side constraints remain, the demand in emerging fields is optimistic in the long - term, but the demand side is restricted by high prices in the short - term, and the inventory has increased significantly. The tin price may show a high - level wide - range oscillating trend. Later, attention should be paid to the recovery of Burmese mines and the domestic supply - demand situation [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Situation - In December, the domestic tin ore import volume was 17,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 40.2%. The tin ore imported from Myanmar was 6,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 438.68%. The recovery of the Burmese mines is slow, and it is expected that the import volume in January will remain stable. The short - term domestic tin ore supply shortage continues, and the domestic tin ore processing fees remain low. The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan is 14,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi is 10,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged week - on - week [2] Supply - In December 2025, the domestic refined tin production was 15,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.79%. The raw material shortage pattern remains unsolved, and the release space of refined tin supply is limited. In Yunnan, the smelter operating rate remains at a high level of about 87%, and production is basically normal. In Jiangxi, affected by the shortage of scrap tin raw materials, the refined tin production is still low, and the operating rate of some enterprises is insufficient. It is expected that the production in January will remain unchanged month - on - month. In December, China's refined tin imports were 1,548 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.24% and a month - on - month increase of 29.54%. The import window was basically closed in December. China exported 2,763 tons of refined tin in December, a year - on - year increase of 32.58% and a month - on - month increase of 41.84%. Currently, the Shanghai - London price ratio is oscillating downward, and tin imports continue to incur increasing losses. In December, Indonesia's tin ingot exports were 5,002.83 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.93%, 1.87% higher than the average level in the past four years. The 2026 quota is about 60,000 tons, slightly higher than that in 2025, but policy control is strict, and the actual export rhythm is affected by the approval process [3] Consumption - High prices suppress downstream demand. Except for rigid demand, the willingness for active inventory replenishment has dropped to zero. Since late January, some solder and electronic manufacturing enterprises have entered the holiday mode, and the downstream's ability to accept orders has declined significantly. Usually, there is inventory replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, but this year, affected by high prices, the inventory replenishment volume is significantly lower than in previous years [3][5] Domestic Spot and Inventory - As of January 26, the tin inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 171 tons to 9,720 tons. As of January 23, the total social inventory of SMM ingots in three places was 10,678 tons, an increase of 542 tons from last week's inventory data. The average spot price of tin in the Yangtze River was 423,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9,100 yuan, a rise of 2.19%. The basis of the Yangtze River spot for the tin main contract fluctuated between premium and discount. Last Friday, the basis was a premium of 4,130 yuan, with large basis fluctuations [4] LME Spot and Inventory - As of January 26, the LME tin weekly inventory continued to increase by 1,260 tons to 7,195 tons, at a relatively high level in the past five years. The LME tin spot discount widened, and the discount was $245 last weekend [4]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed mixed results, with the main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opening at 381,840.00 yuan/ton and reaching a high of 404,400.00 yuan, reflecting a price increase of 2.26% [1] - The current trend for tin prices is characterized by a strong upward movement, with various institutions providing insights on future price movements. Nanhua Futures indicated that despite negative factors such as declining market sentiment and overvaluation, strong support at the bottom exists, and supply from Myanmar is below expectations, while demand shows no immediate negative feedback, leading to expectations of high volatility in tin prices [2] - Copper Crown Jin Yuan Futures noted a decrease in market trading enthusiasm, with weekly social inventory rising significantly to over 10,000 tons, leading to a retreat of long positions. However, a weak rebound was observed near the 10-day moving average due to concentrated risk release and pressure on the US dollar. The fundamental logic remains largely unchanged, with strong supply realities supporting tin prices, but high prices are causing negative feedback and inventory pressure [2] - Wukuang Futures pointed out a marginal improvement in tin supply and demand, but the ongoing trend of inventory accumulation may continue to pressure prices, compounded by the retreat of speculative funds. The recommendation is to maintain a wait-and-see approach, with domestic main contract reference range set between 360,000-400,000 yuan/ton and overseas tin reference range between 46,000-50,000 USD/ton [2]

Industry and Company Analysis Summary Industry Overview: Tin Industry - Global tin reserves have been declining since 2000, but production has been steadily increasing. Major tin-producing countries like Myanmar, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) face supply constraints. China's smelting plants have also been undergoing maintenance, exacerbating supply tightness. The cancellation of export tax rebates for photovoltaic products has stimulated short-term demand [2][3]. - China's investment in tin resource exploration is relatively low compared to other minerals. However, projects like the second phase of Xinyi Silver Tin Mining and others are expected to gradually come online in the coming years, contributing to metal tonnage increases [2][6]. - Indonesia's tin industry is facing insufficient capital expenditure and policy adjustments, including the closure of illegal mining sites and military enforcement. Tianma Company plans to gradually increase refined zinc production to 80,000 metal tons [2][8]. - Myanmar's tin supply is expected to reach around 20,000 tons by 2026, influenced by the resumption of operations in the Wa region. The DRC is expected to maintain its tin output in 2026 due to political instability [2][9]. Key Points on Supply and Demand - The global cash cost of tin mining is expected to increase by 30% by 2027 compared to 2022, and by over 50% by 2030. This cost support is expected to elevate the future price center of tin [2][13]. - Tin prices have surged by 17% since January 1, 2026, reaching a record high of 410,000 yuan per ton. This strong performance is attributed to positive sentiment in the non-ferrous metals market and rigid supply characteristics [3]. - The global refined tin market is projected to have a shortfall of 18,000 tons by 2025, with demand at 386,000 tons and supply at 368,000 tons. The market is expected to remain in a tight balance in the coming years [4][17]. Production and Exploration Insights - As of the end of 2024, global tin reserves are estimated at 4.2 million tons, with China holding 1 million tons, Indonesia 800,000 tons, and Myanmar 700,000 tons. The top five resource countries account for nearly 80% of global reserves [5]. - China's core mines include Datun Tin Mine, Laofactory Tin Mine, and others, with new projects expected to contribute approximately 12,000 metal tons annually by the end of 2027 [6]. - Indonesia's capital expenditure has been declining since 2009, leading to reduced production levels. The government has implemented policies to curb illegal mining and improve regulatory processes [7][12]. Consumption and Market Dynamics - In the global refined tin consumption structure, solder accounts for over 50%, with China being the largest consumer at 54%. The demand for electronic solder, closely related to the semiconductor industry, is expected to grow, although a decrease in new photovoltaic installations may offset some demand [4][15][16]. - Secondary materials account for about 20% of global tin supply, with annual supply fluctuations between 60,000 to 90,000 tons. The supply of secondary materials is highly correlated with market prices [14]. Company-Specific Developments - Major domestic producers include Yunnan Tin Company, Xinyi Silver Zinc, and Huaxi Nonferrous. Yunnan Tin is the largest refined zinc producer globally, with plans to enhance tailings utilization. Xinyi Silver Zinc is expected to have the highest future growth, with multiple projects coming online between 2027 and 2028 [19][20]. - Huaxi Nonferrous plans to expand its production capacity from 7,000 tons to 9,000 tons through various projects [20]. This summary encapsulates the current state and future outlook of the tin industry, highlighting key players, market dynamics, and production forecasts.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price is expected to show an oscillating and upward - trending pattern. The short - term price fluctuation range is 350,000 - 400,000 yuan/ton, and if the price breaks through, the upper limit of the range may further rise to about 450,000 - 460,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended that investors continue to hold long positions or allocate long positions on dips [5] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On January 12, 2026, the tin price soared, breaking through 315,000 yuan/ton during intraday trading and reaching a new high for the year. The main reason is the continuous supply disruptions and the further release of price elasticity under high market sentiment [3] - In Myanmar, due to the slower - than - expected explosive approval process, there will be a shortage of production raw materials and difficulties in mine production at the beginning of 2026. It is expected that the average monthly output in Myanmar at the beginning of the year will only be maintained at about 1,000 metal tons [3] - In Indonesia, due to the influence of RKAB approval, the supply in the first quarter may still be restricted. As of January 7, the trading volume of tin in the two major exchanges in Indonesia was 0 [3] - In the African region, political instability and backward infrastructure have continuously restricted tin ore production and exports, and the current risk remains high [3] Fundamental Situation - Currently, the tight situation of domestic tin ore supply remains unresolved, restricting the output of smelting plants. The processing fee for tin concentrate also remains at a low level. As of January 9, the processing fee (TC) for 40% grade tin concentrate in Yunnan was 12,000 yuan/ton [4] - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative refined tin production was 18,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The single - month output in December was 1,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [4] - Under the situation of tight supply, the tin inventory has decreased recently. As of January 9, the domestic tin ingot social inventory was 478 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,042 tons. As of the end of December, the domestic tin ingot enterprise inventory was 3,950 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2,070 tons [4] Summary and Strategy - In terms of supply, the tin ore supply continues to tighten, resulting in a short - term shortage of raw materials for smelters, low processing fees for tin concentrates, and difficulty in increasing the output of refined products [5] - In terms of demand, the United States is still in an interest - rate - cut cycle, and the expansion of the fiscal end is expected to have a positive effect on the global economy. The semiconductor industry maintains high growth, and consumption in the photovoltaic and new - energy vehicle fields continues to rise. Considering the need to rebuild the industrial chain inventory, tin demand will continue to grow [5]

Group 1 - The non-ferrous and precious metals sector showed significant signs of correction as of January 8, with major contracts like Shanghai nickel and silver futures dropping over 6% [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) issued multiple risk warnings and adjusted the price limits for trading, indicating that the recent price increases in silver and tin have created substantial potential risks [2][3] - The SHFE announced an increase in the margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for silver futures, effective from January 9, raising the limits by 1 percentage point [5][7] Group 2 - The market's response to the SHFE's risk control measures resulted in a notable decline in prices, suggesting that the precious metals and non-ferrous sectors may have entered a correction phase [10] - Analysts noted that while the long-term support for precious metals remains solid, the current market dynamics have led to increased volatility and investment risks, necessitating a cautious approach from market participants [10][11] - Concerns over supply disruptions in tin due to geopolitical factors and production cuts in Indonesia have contributed to price fluctuations, with tin prices reaching their highest levels since March 2022 [10][11]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with the main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange opening at 326,000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 335,260.00 CNY, marking a 2.49% increase [1] - The current trend for tin prices is characterized by a volatile upward movement, with institutions providing mixed forecasts for future performance. New Lake Futures noted a weak overall consumption environment, with a decrease in orders from soldering companies and a decline in operating rates, while supply remained stable [2] - Guizhou Futures highlighted that the official manufacturing PMI in China rose to 50.1 in December, indicating economic resilience, and that there has been a significant reduction in social inventory of tin ingots, which decreased by 1,058 tons to 9,309 tons as of December 31, 2025 [3] Group 2 - New Lake Futures suggested that the short-term supply and demand fundamentals for tin are weak, indicating potential downward pressure on prices, while the medium to long-term outlook remains optimistic due to expected supply shortages [2] - Guizhou Futures indicated that the short-term bullish factors for the tin market are limited, with prices expected to fluctuate at high levels, and emphasized the importance of monitoring downstream replenishment after price declines [3] - National Investment Trust Futures mentioned that despite ongoing conflicts in eastern Congo, there is no evidence of impact on major mine supplies, and they are monitoring potential mining conferences that may influence market dynamics [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the tin price dropped by over 4.5% on a weekly basis. After the price decline, the fundamentals improved significantly. The domestic tin spot premium rebounded, and the weekly social inventory of tin decreased. After the holiday, the tin price may oscillate weakly. Looking forward to 2026, the tin price is expected to maintain a high level in the first quarter, possibly reaching above 350,000 yuan, but there is also a possibility of a peak - to - trough decline [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) - **Spot**: This week, the LME 0 - 3 spread was at a discount of -1 USD/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 850 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums declined, while premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan increased [10][15]. - **Spread**: This week, the monthly structure of tin changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [19]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic social inventory of tin decreased by 858 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 889 tons. The LME inventory increased by 520 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio dropped to 2.95% [25][30]. - **Funds**: As of this Friday, the settled funds of SHFE tin were 284,032 ten - thousand yuan, and the funds flowed out in the past 10 days [35]. - **Transaction and Position**: This week, the trading volume and position of SHFE tin increased slightly, with a significant increase in the position. The trading volume of LME tin rebounded slightly, and the position continued to rise. The position - to - inventory ratio of SHFE tin rebounded slightly [37][42][47]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) - **Tin Ore**: In October 2025, the tin concentrate output was 5,972 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.48%. In November 2025, the import volume was 15,099 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.41%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease was 21.69%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan dropped to 8,000 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss level of tin ore rebounded slightly [52][53]. - **Smelting**: In November 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 15,960 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.06%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 66.2%, a slight increase from last week [58][60]. - **Import**: In November 2025, the domestic tin ingot import was 1,195 tons, the export was 1,048 tons, and the net export was 753 tons. The tin ingot imported from Indonesia to China was 225 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 28,426 yuan/ton [65]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) - **Consumption Volume**: In November 2025, the apparent consumption volume of tin ingots was 15,207 tons, and the actual consumption volume was 14,066 tons [73]. - **Tin Materials**: This week, the downstream processing fee declined slightly. The operating rate of monthly solder enterprises in October rebounded to 73.1%. The output and sales volume of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in August increased slightly [75]. - **End - User Consumption**: In November 2025, the output of end - user products showed mixed results. The monthly output of integrated circuits, electronics, smartphones, and household appliances such as air conditioners declined. In October 2025, the consumption of household appliances and new energy showed a month - on - month rebound. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of the tin price [82][84][89].