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新湖期货:锡价下方支撑强 但上行空间受消费抑制
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-30 01:32
格隆汇9月30日|新湖期货点评:印尼政府近日暂停190家违规矿企,下令关停1000个非法采矿点,并严 抓锡矿走私,这引发锡矿供应担忧,刺激锡价飙升,沪锡攀升至28万元/吨,伦锡涨至3.55万美元/吨水 平,均创4月中旬以来新高。 印尼为全球精炼锡第二大生产国,该国2024年精炼锡产量占全球13.5%左 右。不过印尼暂停的违规矿企均为小型矿企,关停的1000个非法采矿点产量也较小,印尼锡矿出口量也 不大,而该国锡冶炼厂多自有正规矿,因此预计此次印尼严查非法采矿的行为对该国锡产量总体影响量 级不大,难以为锡价持续性上涨提供动力。 目前缅甸锡矿复产推进,锡矿供应有回升趋势。另外,国 内龙头企业检修接近尾声,后期复产后国内产量也将明显回升。相对而言,旺季消费改善力度尚有限。 不过印尼取缔非法采矿的行为对全球供应有一定扰动,另外近期LME市场再有挤仓苗头,库存再度下 降,现货合约重回升水状态。此外宏观面存在乐观预期,美国进入降息周期,国内宏观政策面有乐观预 期。综合看锡价下方支撑强,但上行空间受消费抑制。操作上不建议追高。 ...
南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250905
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 03:28
Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days as expected. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by some enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and the decrease in tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with stable macro conditions, despite demand pressure, tin prices may rise slightly further due to tight supply, with the upper target tentatively set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 272,020 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 13.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.5% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, recommend selling 75% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 275,000 yuan and selling 25% of call options (SN2511C275000) when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, recommend buying 50% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 230,000 yuan and selling 25% of put options (SN2511P260000) when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - **Domestic**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin main contract, Shanghai tin continuous - one, and Shanghai tin continuous - three are all stable, while the price of LME tin 3M is 34,425 US dollars per ton, down 195 US dollars or 0.56% [6] - **Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89, up 0.04 or 0.51% [6] - **Spot Data**: - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and some solder products have increased slightly on a weekly basis, while some other products are stable [10] - **Imports and Processing Fees**: Tin import profit and loss is - 18,752.84 yuan per ton, down 7.34% daily, and tin ore processing fees are stable [10] 4. Tin Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,495 tons, up 1.19% daily, with different changes in Guangdong and Shanghai [13] - **LME Inventory**: The total LME tin inventory is 2,195 tons, up 0.92% [13]
南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250904
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-04 02:50
Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, affected by enterprise maintenance and lower tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with a stable macro - environment, tin prices may rise slightly further, with the upper target set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price is 273,120 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 12.99%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.4% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: 273,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - LME Tin 3M: 34,620 dollars/ton, down 115 dollars (- 0.33%) [6] - Shanghai - London ratio: 7.85, up 0.08 (1.03%) [6] - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: 273,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.4%) [10] - 1 tin premium: 0 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (- 100%) [10] - 40% tin concentrate: 261,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - 60% tin concentrate: 265,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - Other tin - related products also showed varying degrees of price changes [10] 4. Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import and Processing Data (Daily)**: - Tin import profit and loss: - 20,238.59 yuan/ton, up 143.67 yuan (- 0.7%) [12] - 40% tin ore processing fee: 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - 60% tin ore processing fee: 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - **Inventory Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts: 7,407 tons, up 144 tons (1.98%) [14] - LME tin inventory: 2,175 tons, up 20 tons (0.93%) [14]
国泰君安期货锡周报-20250831
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-31 09:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the tin price rose significantly with a weekly increase of 4.7%, but dropped by 2.17% on Friday night, closing at 272,590 yuan/ton. The news of Yunnan Tin's shutdown for maintenance on August 30, 2025, which is expected to last no more than 45 days, affected market sentiment. Social inventory decreased domestically, while LME inventory overseas increased by 270 tons. Tin ore imports in July decreased compared to June, and the production of tin ingots is expected to remain flat or increase slightly in August. With a bullish macro - environment, approaching peak demand season, and limited tin ingot imports from Indonesia, the tin price may return to around 270,000 yuan and fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was 175 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 600 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [11][14]. 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [18]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Domestically, social inventory decreased by 117 tons, while futures inventory increased by 241 tons. LME inventory increased by 225 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 11.44% [21][26]. 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 207,660 million yuan, and the funds flowed in over the past 10 days [30]. 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the position increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the position continued to decline [32][38]. 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin decreased slightly [43]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In May 2025, the production of tin concentrate was 5,961 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.56%. In July 2025, imports were 10,278 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.32%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan dropped to 8,000 yuan/ton. The profit - and - loss level of tin ore imports rebounded slightly [47][48]. 3.2.2 Smelting - In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot production was 15,940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 59.64%, a slight increase from last week [53][55]. 3.2.3 Import - In July 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 2,167 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and net imports were 393 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 812 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 16,622 yuan/ton [61]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In July 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 16,434 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,572 tons [65]. 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The monthly operating rate of solder enterprises in April decreased slightly. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in May decreased slightly [68]. 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In July 2025, the production of end - user products varied. The performance of home appliances was weak, with a general month - on - month decline. The production of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer systems decreased month - on - month and was at a historically low level. The consumption of home appliances and new energy also decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of the tin price [76][78][82].
海内外库存呈现去库趋势 锡价维持高位震荡偏强
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-29 07:12
Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a mostly positive trend, with the main contract for tin futures opening at 274,000.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 278,580.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 2.25% [1] - Key factors supporting tin prices include low overseas inventory and strong structural demand, alongside slow recovery in Myanmar's tin mines due to seasonal rains and operational constraints, which keeps raw material supply tight [1] - Short-term expectations suggest that tin prices will maintain a strong upward trend, but significant further increases will require additional positive stimuli, with attention on resistance levels near previous highs [1] Group 2 - The mining sector remains tight, with progress in the resumption of operations in Wa State enhancing market expectations for tin mine recovery in Q4 [2] - Domestic processing fees are at low levels, and smelting plants are experiencing losses with further reductions in raw material inventories, leading to lower operating rates than normal [2] - Overall consumption remains weak due to seasonal downturns in traditional sectors, and both domestic and overseas inventories are decreasing, indicating a continued tight supply situation [2]
锡矿供应恢复缓慢 沪锡偏强震荡【8月28日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-28 09:44
Group 1 - LME prices continue to rise, closing at 34,510, an increase of 1.11% from the previous trading day, marking three consecutive days of gains [1] - The strong performance of tin prices is supported by low global tin inventory and tight supply, with macroeconomic sentiment improving [1][2] - Supply tightness from mining remains a crucial factor for supporting tin prices, with July imports of tin ore in China slightly decreasing compared to June, primarily due to a significant drop in imports from Myanmar [1] Group 2 - China's tin ingot imports are limited, mainly due to profit margins affecting imports, with the current spot import window for refined tin remaining largely closed [2] - The global tin supply recovery is slow, with Indonesian refined tin exports facing challenges, while demand remains relatively stable [2] - Domestic inventory levels are high despite a slight decrease, and weak consumption is unlikely to provide support for prices in the short term [2]
南华期货锡风险管理日报-20250828
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 01:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The strengthening of tin prices on Wednesday may be related to the relatively tight supply. Trump's move to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook could bring him closer to "controlling the Fed" if successful. The continuous decline of tin ingot social inventory for two weeks may provide upward momentum for tin prices. The demand side shows that tin solder enterprises have a good start - up situation and are willing to take delivery when the price is not higher than 270,000 yuan per ton. In the short - term, the tin supply has not increased, and any smelter maintenance or extended maintenance time is beneficial to tin prices [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 271,790 yuan, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price decline, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate. For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concern about price increase, it is recommended to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **L利多因素**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's复产 being less than expected [4][5] - **利空因素**: Tariff policy fluctuations, the inflow of Myanmar tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion speed slowing down and gradually moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3.3 Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Tin Futures Data (Daily)**: The latest price of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract is 271,790 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract is 272,070 yuan/ton with no daily change; the LME Tin 3M is 34,510 US dollars/ton, up 380 US dollars with a daily increase of 1.11%; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.86, down 0.11 with a daily decline of 1.38% [6] - **Tin Spot Data (Weekly)**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot price is 272,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.68%; 1 tin premium is 200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan with a weekly decline of 50%; 40% tin concentrate is 260,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.76%; 60% tin concentrate is 264,000 yuan/ton, up 4,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.73%; the price of 60A solder bar is 176,250 yuan/ton, up 2,500 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.44%; the price of 63A solder bar is 184,250 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.66%; the price of lead - free solder is 278,250 yuan/ton, up 5,000 yuan with a weekly increase of 1.83% [12] 3.4 Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Tin Import and Processing Data (Daily)**: The tin import profit and loss is - 15,229.07 yuan/ton, up 1,537.58 yuan with a daily decline of 9.17%; the 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no daily change; the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,050 yuan/ton with no daily change [14] - **Tin Inventory Data (Daily)**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin is 7,163 tons, up 11 tons with a daily increase of 0.15%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 5,055 tons, down 33 tons with a daily decline of 0.65%; the warehouse receipt quantity in Shanghai is 1,251 tons, up 44 tons with a daily increase of 3.65%; the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons, down 5 tons with a daily decline of 0.28% [16]
有色金属周报(精炼锡):缅甸佤邦锡矿完全复产仍需时间,美联储降息预期升温支撑锡价-20250825
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 07:15
Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Refined Tin) [1] - Date: August 25, 2025 [1] - Author: Wang Wenhu [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has increased, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign tin ingots has decreased. However, due to the复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa, the upside space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance levels around 271,000 - 279,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [2]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin are within a reasonable range, which is due to the gradual复产 expectations of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo-Kinshasa. However, the weakening employment supply - demand in the US has increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and there is an expectation of the domestic traditional consumption season changing from off - peak to peak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [5]. - The positive spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts are within a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the weakening employment supply - demand in the US increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in the second half of the year, and the relatively low inventory of refined tin at the LME. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [9]. Summary by Category Supply Side - **Tin Ore**: Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (the initial incremental output does not exceed 10,000 metal tons and there is a 2 - 3 - month transmission period, with a total of 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced on April 9 that the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Congo - Kinshasa, the world's third - largest, would resume production in stages (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively), and the power system repair would take more than 3 months. These factors may lead to a month - on - month increase in China's tin ore production and import volume in August [20]. - **Recycled Tin**: China's recycled tin production in August may increase month - on - month [21][23]. - **Refined Tin**: The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased (remained flat) compared with last week. China's refined tin production and inventory in August may increase month - on - month. Indonesia's export volume in August may increase month - on - month, and the loss in imports and exports may lead to a month - on - month decrease in China's refined tin imports and exports in August [2][27][31]. - **Processing Fees**: The daily processing fees for domestic tin concentrates are fluctuating downward, which may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [16]. Demand Side - **Tin Solder**: The daily processing fees for photovoltaic solder strips have decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month decrease in the capacity utilization rate and an increase in the inventory of China's tin solder in August [34]. - **Solder Strips**: China's solder strip imports in August may decrease month - on - month, while exports may increase month - on - month [36][38]. - **Tin - Plated Sheets**: China's tin - plated sheet production, imports, and exports in August may increase (decrease, increase) month - on - month [42]. - **Lead - Acid Batteries**: The capacity utilization rate of China's lead - acid batteries has increased compared with last week. Since tin is an important additive element in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][47]. Inventory - China's refined tin social inventory has decreased compared with last week. The inventory of refined tin on the SHFE has decreased compared with last week, the inventory of refined tin at the LME has increased compared with last week, and the total inventory of domestic and foreign refined tin has decreased compared with last week [10][12]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range [3][5]. - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread of the (3 - 15) contract is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [7][9].
需求萎缩速度超过供应 预计锡价短期震荡偏弱
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-08 08:47
周四沪锡主力SN2509合约日内震荡偏强,夜间横盘震荡,轮锡收涨。现货市场:听闻小牌对9月平水- 升水300元/吨左右,云字头对9月升水300-升水600元/吨附近,云锡对9月升水600-升水800元/吨左右不 变。 (8月8日)今日全国锡价格一览表 | 规格 | 报价 | 报价类型 | 交货地 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品名:1#锡锭 ;牌号:Sn99.90 ; | 268050元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市场 | | 品名:1#锡锭 ;牌号:Sn99.90 ; | 268250元/吨 | 市场价 | 广东省 | 上海物贸中心有色金属交易市场 | | 品名:1#锡锭 ;牌号:Sn99.90 ; | 268000元/吨 | 市场价 | 上海 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | 【市场资讯】 8月8日,伦敦金属交易所(LME):锡注册仓单1390吨,注销仓单320吨,减少70吨;锡库存1710吨, 减少60吨。 8月7日,上期所锡期货仓单7332吨,环比上个交易日减少26吨。 分析观点: 东海期货研报:供应端,云南江西两地合计开工率大 ...
南华锡周报:小幅回落,震荡为主-20250804
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 01:41
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The tin price showed a slight decline and is expected to mainly fluctuate in the future. The weekly operating range is estimated to be between RMB 261,000 and RMB 268,000 per ton [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Disk Review - The main futures contract of Shanghai tin rose and then fell during the week, closing at RMB 264,000 per ton, with a spot premium of RMB 700 per ton on the Shanghai Metal Market. The inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased slightly, and the LME inventory stopped falling. Tin imports continued to incur losses, and the processing fee for 40% tin ore remained stable [1] - The weekly decline of the main Shanghai tin futures contract was 1.09%, the main contract of Shanghai tin continuous one decreased by 1.09%, the main contract of Shanghai tin continuous three dropped by 1.02%, and the LME tin 3M decreased by 2.71%. The Shanghai-London ratio increased by 3.31% [3] 2. Industry Performance - According to the latest report of Indonesian tin miner PT Timah, its refined tin production in the first half of this year decreased by 29% year-on-year to 6,870 tons, and its sales volume decreased by 28% year-on-year to 5,983 tons. The average selling price of refined tin increased by 8% year-on-year to $32,816 per ton [1] 3. Core Logic - The decline of tin price during the week was in line with expectations as the macro - impact was limited. On the supply side, the mining licenses for tin mines in Myanmar have been basically reviewed, and it is expected to resume work officially in late August at the earliest, which will have the greatest impact on the tin fundamentals but will not affect short - term supply and demand much. If the resumption of work in Myanmar falls short of expectations again, the previous negative factors may turn into short - term positive factors. In the next week, the tin price may still mainly fluctuate, and there is still room for speculation on supply - side topics [1] 4. Other Data - The loss of tin imports was RMB 14,300.05 per ton, a decrease of 33.45%. The processing fee for 40% tin ore remained unchanged at RMB 12,200 per ton, and the processing fee for 60% tin ore decreased by 4.74% to RMB 10,050 per ton [7] - The total Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased by 2.26% to 7,286 tons, the Shanghai tin inventory increased by 3.76% to 7,417 tons, the LME tin registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 1,415 tons, and the LME tin cancelled warehouse receipts increased by 64.62% to 535 tons. The LME tin inventory increased by 8.16% to 1,855 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 1.13% to 9,644 tons [10][12] - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots decreased by 2.4% to RMB 264,600 per ton, the 1 tin premium decreased by 28.57% to RMB 500 per ton, the price of 40% tin concentrate decreased by 2.51% to RMB 252,600 per ton, the price of 60% tin concentrate decreased by 2.47% to RMB 256,600 per ton, the price of 60A solder bar decreased by 1.99% to RMB 172,250 per ton, the price of 63A solder bar decreased by 1.91% to RMB 179,750 per ton, and the price of lead - free solder decreased by 2.34% to RMB 270,750 per ton [11]