1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin oscillated with a downward bias, with a weekly decline of -0.14% and an amplitude of 2.66%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 283,510 yuan/ton. The tin market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the tin price will oscillate at a high level in the short term. Technically, the position decreased and the price corrected, with the bullish sentiment declining. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 278,000 - 287,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai Tin oscillated with a downward bias, with a weekly decline of -0.14% and an amplitude of 2.66%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 283,510 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the private US data provider Revelio Labs reported that the non - farm employment in October turned negative, with a decrease of 9,100 jobs. The direction of the Fed's rate cut in December is unclear. Fundamental factors include that the first batch of reopened mines in Wa State, Myanmar, are in the production ramp - up period, and the import volume of tin ore from Myanmar is expected to increase steadily in the fourth quarter, but the increase is still limited. The supply from Africa and Australia has declined unexpectedly, and Africa is about to enter the rainy season, with the tin ore import in September decreasing month - on - month. However, Indonesia plans to accelerate the release of refined tin exports in the fourth quarter. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the tin ore processing fee remains at a low level; the scrap recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure, the operating rate remains at a low level, and the production of refined tin is still restricted. On the demand side, recently, the tin price has oscillated and adjusted. Downstream buyers in the spot market mainly make purchases at low prices, mostly for small - scale restocking and just - in - time needs. After the tin price rises, the market trading is sluggish. Domestic inventories are stable, and the spot premium has slightly decreased to 200 yuan/ton; LME inventories have increased slightly, and the spot premium remains stable [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to wait and see for now, and focus on the range of 278,000 - 287,000 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of November 7, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Tin was 283,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 280 yuan/ton or 0.1% from October 31. As of November 6, 2025, the closing price of LME Tin was 35,760 US dollars/ton, an increase of 40 US dollars/ton or 0.11% from October 31 [9]. - **Ratio Analysis**: As of November 7, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai Tin to Shanghai Nickel was 2.37, an increase of 0.02 from October 31. As of November 6, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of tin was 7.92, a decrease of 0.01 from October 30 [14]. - **Position Analysis**: As of November 7, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Tin was - 1,191 lots, an increase of 2,033 lots from November 3, 2025. As of November 7, 2025, the position of Shanghai Tin was 67,164 lots, a decrease of 3,034 lots or 4.32% from October 31 [18]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Supply Side - **Tin Ore Import**: According to customs data, in September 2025, the monthly import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 8,713.60 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13% and a year - on - year increase of 10.79%. From January to September this year, the cumulative import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 91,387.04 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.93% [24]. - **Refined Tin Production**: According to Mysteel data, in September 2025, the production of refined tin was 9,770 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35%. From January to September, the cumulative production of refined tin was 87,175 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.95% [25]. - **Tin Ore Processing Fee**: On November 7, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 6, 2025; the processing fee for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from November 6, 2025 [30]. - **Refined Tin Import Profit and Loss**: As of November 7, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 5,415.01 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7,743.72 yuan/ton from October 31, 2025 [35]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 2,975 tons, an increase of 185 tons or 6.63% from October 30. As of November 7, 2025, the total tin inventory was 5,992 tons, an increase of 73 tons or 1.23% from last week. As of November 7, 2025, the tin futures inventory was 5,803 tons, an increase of 129 tons or 2.27% from October 31 [39]. Demand Side - **Semiconductor Index**: On November 6, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,018.39, a decrease of 197.6 or 2.74% from October 30. From January to September 2025, the production of integrated circuits was 381,887,020,000 pieces, an increase of 66,284,720,000 pieces or 21% compared with the same period last year [43][44]. - **Tin - Plated Sheet Export**: According to the China Iron and Steel Association, as of September 2025, the production of tin - plated sheets was 100,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons or 9.09% from August 2025. As of September 2025, the export volume of tin - plated sheets was 197,624.42 tons, an increase of 31,073.35 tons or 18.66% from August [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints Tin - Tin prices rebounded slightly this week with a volatile performance. The price rose above 290,000 yuan due to the Indonesian event and macro - sentiment but then fell back. The fundamentals show opposite changes in domestic and overseas inventories. There is no clear direction in the short - term, and prices are more likely to follow macro guidance [8]. Copper - Macro and micro factors still present positive aspects for copper, and there is support at the lower price level. Although there are some negative factors such as Powell's hawkish statement on the December interest - rate cut, the long - term positive logic in the micro - level still exists, and copper prices are expected to have long - position allocation value after a correction [101]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin Transaction Aspect - **Spot**: The LME 0 - 3 premium is 40 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium is 500 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums have declined [12][17]. - **Spread**: The tin monthly structure has changed from B to C [21]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased by 144 tons, and futures inventory increased by 22 tons. LME inventory increased by 125 tons, and the canceled warrant ratio dropped to 4.35% [27][32]. - **Funds**: As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 199,379 million yuan, and the funds flowed in in the past 10 days [37]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Shanghai tin's trading volume and open interest decreased slightly, while the open interest increased slightly. LME tin's trading volume increased slightly, and the open interest continued to rise [39][44]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin increased slightly [49]. Supply Aspect - **Tin Ore**: In July 2025, the tin concentrate output was 6,409 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.63%. In September 2025, the import volume was 8,714 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. The processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, and that for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan decreased to 8,000 yuan/ton [53][54]. - **Smelting**: In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot output was 10,510 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces decreased slightly to 68.72% [59][61]. - **Import**: In September 2025, the domestic tin ingot imports were 1,269 tons, exports were 1,640 tons, and the net exports were 1,748 tons. The latest import profit and loss was - 15,453 yuan/ton [67]. Demand Aspect - **Consumption Volume**: In September 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 10,031 tons, and the actual consumption was 12,032 tons [75]. - **Tin Products**: This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The operating rate of solder enterprises in September increased by 784.8%. The output and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises decreased slightly in July [78]. - **Terminal Consumption**: In September 2025, the terminal output showed different performances. The output of integrated circuits, electronics, and smartphones increased monthly. In the household appliance sector, the output of air - conditioners increased, and the output of color TVs and washing machines increased slightly. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded this week, in line with the performance of tin prices [85][92]. Copper Transaction Aspect - **Volatility**: The volatility of SHFE, INE, and COMEX copper decreased, while that of LME copper increased. The LME copper price volatility was around 16%, and the Shanghai copper volatility was around 23% [107]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the LME copper spot discount narrowed. The COMEX copper near - end C structure expanded [109][111]. - **Open Interest**: The open interest of LME, SHFE, and COMEX copper increased, with Shanghai copper's open interest increasing by 10,000 lots to 593,600 lots [112]. - **Funds and Industry Open Interest**: The net short - position of LME commercial enterprises increased, and the net long - position of CFTC non - commercial enterprises decreased [118]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium weakened, and the Yangshan Port copper premium declined. The US copper premium remained at a high level, and the Rotterdam and Southeast Asian copper premiums remained stable [121][123]. - **Inventory**: The global total copper inventory decreased, with the bonded - area inventory decreasing significantly. The COMEX inventory increased, and the LME copper inventory decreased [124][126]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of LME copper increased, while that of Shanghai copper was at a low level compared with the same period in history [127]. Supply Aspect - **Copper Concentrate**: The year - on - year import increased, and the processing fee remained weak. - **Recycled Copper**: The year - on - year import volume increased, and the domestic output increased significantly year - on - year. The ticket rate was low, the refined - scrap spread widened, and the import loss narrowed. - **Blister Copper**: The import decreased, and the processing fee was at a low level. - **Refined Copper**: The output and import increased year - on - year, but the spot import of refined copper suffered a large loss [104]. Demand Aspect - **Operating Rate**: The operating rate of copper product enterprises in September increased month - on - month. - **Profit**: The processing fee of copper rods was at a low level compared with the same period in history, and the processing fee of copper tubes decreased. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. - **Consumption**: The apparent consumption was good, and power grid investment was still an important support. The output of air - conditioners decreased, and the output of new - energy vehicles was at a high level compared with the same period in history [104].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the tin price trend in the second half of 2025 is dominated by global supply tightness, with significant influences from Myanmar's slow recovery and Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, alongside macroeconomic factors supporting price increases [1][4] - The recovery of tin production in Myanmar is expected to be the main driver for marginal supply improvement in Q4 2025, with imports from Myanmar anticipated to steadily increase, alleviating raw material inventory issues in Yunnan smelting plants [2][4] - Domestic refined tin production faced constraints due to raw material shortages, with September production dropping significantly by 34.69% to 9,770 tons, but is expected to rebound as raw material supply improves and smelting capacities are gradually released [2][3] Group 2 - The traditional consumption sectors for tin, particularly the electronics market, continue to show weak performance, with a reported 6.0% year-on-year decline in domestic mobile phone shipments in August 2025 [3] - The photovoltaic sector is also under pressure, with a 1.8% year-on-year decline in newly installed solar capacity in Q3 2025, indicating overall demand weakness [3] - The overall demand for tin is expected to remain weak, limiting the price support from the demand side, despite some growth in tin consumption from AI servers [3][4] Group 3 - The tin market in Q4 is characterized by "marginal supply improvement and continued demand weakness," with supply growth from Myanmar and Indonesia putting pressure on tin prices, while low global tin inventories and macroeconomic factors provide limited downside [4] - The Shanghai tin main contract is projected to fluctuate within the range of 270,000 to 300,000 yuan per ton, with close attention needed on the actual supply increase from Myanmar and changes in domestic and international macro policies [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The market has fully priced in the expectation of two 25-basis-point interest rate cuts by the Fed in the remaining time of this year. Fundamentally, the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian President may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import of tin ore decreased in September, and the production of tin ore in Myanmar is slowly recovering, while production in Africa and Australia has declined more than expected. In the smelting sector, the shortage of raw materials in Yunnan is still severe, and the waste recycling system in Jiangxi is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, most downstream and end - user enterprises are still waiting and only making small - quantity purchases for刚需, with low restocking enthusiasm. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is heating up, and attention should be paid to the previous high resistance. It is recommended to adopt a bullish strategy and focus on the range of 282,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Tin was 286,720 yuan/ton, up 2,420 yuan; the closing price of the November - December contract was down 570 yuan. The LME 3 - month tin price was 35,650 US dollars/ton, down 75 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin was 45,084 lots, up 7,008 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 2,070 lots, down 474 lots. The total LME tin inventory was 2,750 tons, up 30 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of tin was 5,766 tons (weekly), up 75 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warrant was 5,652 tons, up 85 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 1 tin spot price was 283,500 yuan/ton, up 1,600 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 tin spot price was 283,810 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract was - 3,220 yuan/ton, down 820 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) was 143 US dollars/ton, up 43 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates was 0.87 million tons (monthly), down 0.16 million tons. The average price of 40% tin concentrate was 269,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate was 273,900 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The processing fee of 40% and 60% tin concentrate by Antaike was 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin was 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin was 1,501.64 tons, up 63.06 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu was 183,800 yuan/ton, up 1,010 yuan. The cumulative output of tin - plated sheets (strips) was 1.1093 million tons (monthly), up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets was 0.1976 million tons, up 0.031 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - China - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The two sides had in - depth and constructive exchanges on important economic and trade issues and reached a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns. The US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, the highest since January this year but lower than the market expectation of 3.1%, and the core CPI slowed to 0.2% month - on - month, also lower than expected [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals show that the order from the Indonesian President to close 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung may exacerbate the tight supply of tin ore. The import volume of tin ore from Myanmar has rebounded, and there are signs of short - term supply improvement as mining licenses are approved. Currently, tin ore processing fees remain at a historical low. On the smelting side, the shortage of raw materials in the Yunnan production area is still severe, and the waste recycling system in the Jiangxi production area is under pressure with a low operating rate. On the demand side, as tin prices fluctuate around 280,000 yuan, the wait - and - see sentiment of some downstream and terminal enterprises has subsided, leading to a small amount of replenishment. However, some still maintain just - in - time purchasing. Overall, the spot market trading has warmed up, with the spot premium remaining at 400 yuan/ton. LME inventory has increased slightly, and the spot premium has rebounded slightly. It is recommended to wait and see or go long with a light position [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of Shanghai Tin is 281,680 yuan/ton, up 810 yuan; the closing price of the October - November contract of Shanghai Tin is 450 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The price of LME 3 - month tin is 35,475 US dollars/ton, up 175 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai Tin is 17,330 lots, down 2,223 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai Tin is - 1,393 lots, up 472 lots. LME tin total inventory is 2,735 tons, unchanged; LME tin cancelled warrants are 205 tons, up 25 tons. The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 5,691 tons, down 188 tons; the warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 5,600 tons, up 65 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 tin spot price is 281,000 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 tin spot price is 281,420 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Tin main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 56 US dollars/ton, up 56 US dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 1.03 million tons, unchanged. The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 269,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan; the average price of 60% tin concentrate is 273,300 yuan/ton, up 1,300 yuan. The processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, down 1,600 tons; the monthly import volume of refined tin is 1,438.58 tons, down 885.91 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 182,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The cumulative monthly output of tin - plated sheets (strips) is 1.1093 million tons, up 0.1448 million tons; the monthly export volume of tin - plated sheets is 0.1666 million tons, down 0.0394 million tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Foreign Ministry had no information to provide. Commerce Minister Wang Wentao held video talks with EU officials on export control and other issues and also talked with the Dutch economic minister. Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the 2026 interest - rate path is highly uncertain. The President of Indonesia ordered to close 1,000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung [3]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [3].

Supply Dynamics - The supply side has been a crucial factor influencing tin prices, with prices surpassing 290,000 yuan due to Indonesia's crackdown on illegal mining, reaching a six-month high [2] - Following the reduction of supply disruptions in Indonesia, tin prices have retreated to around 280,000 yuan, but the market is currently overestimating the price based on valuation lines [2] - China's imports of tin ore and concentrates for September 2025 reached 8,713.60 physical tons (approximately 3,444.62 metal tons), marking a year-on-year decline of 11.87% and a month-on-month decline of 26.59%, the lowest level this year [2] Import Trends - In September, imports from Myanmar increased significantly, with 3,136.76 tons (approximately 848.91 metal tons) imported, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 49.55% and a month-on-month increase of 43.00% [5] - Other major supply countries, including the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Australia, and Nigeria, saw a notable decline in supply, with total imports from these countries down 22.30% year-on-year and 36.66% month-on-month [7] - The decline in imports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Australia was attributed to shipping delays rather than a decrease in local production [8] Market Outlook - The overall supply situation remains tight, with domestic tin supply not significantly improving, which continues to restrict the operating levels of smelting enterprises [9] - Despite a seasonal recovery in production expected in October, the motivation for sustained increases in operating rates is lacking due to ongoing tightness in raw material supply and low processing fees [9] - The market is closely monitoring the recovery of production in the Wa region of Myanmar, which is gradually returning to normal, although current output remains below expectations [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Xiyu Co., Ltd. (000960.SZ), reported that its production and operational conditions are normal, with no significant changes in the internal and external business environment [1] Group 1: Production and Operational Status - The company confirmed that its main product, tin metal, has seen a recent price increase [1] - Tin smelting and processing fees are currently running at a low level [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - There is uncertainty regarding the future market price trends of the company's main product, tin [1] - Investors are advised to be aware of market risks associated with potential price fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government's recent actions to suspend 190 non-compliant mining companies and shut down 1,000 illegal mining sites have raised concerns about tin supply, leading to a surge in tin prices, with Shanghai tin reaching 280,000 yuan/ton and London tin rising to $35,500/ton, both hitting new highs since mid-April [1] Group 1: Indonesian Tin Supply - Indonesia is the world's second-largest producer of refined tin, accounting for approximately 13.5% of global refined tin production in 2024 [1] - The suspended mining companies are primarily small-scale operations, and the shut-down illegal mining sites have a relatively minor production impact [1] - Indonesia's tin smelters mainly source from legitimate mines, suggesting that the overall impact on the country's tin production will be limited [1] Group 2: Global Tin Market Dynamics - Tin supply is expected to recover as Myanmar's tin mines resume production, and domestic leading companies are nearing the end of maintenance, which will lead to a significant rebound in domestic output [1] - Seasonal consumption improvements are currently limited, which may affect the upward potential of tin prices [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - The crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia has caused some disruption in global supply, while recent trends in the LME market indicate a potential squeeze, with inventory levels declining and spot contracts returning to a premium [1] - There are optimistic macroeconomic expectations, with the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle and positive domestic macro policies anticipated [1] - Overall, while there is strong support for tin prices, the upward movement may be constrained by subdued consumption [1]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days as expected. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by some enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and the decrease in tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with stable macro conditions, despite demand pressure, tin prices may rise slightly further due to tight supply, with the upper target tentatively set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 272,020 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 13.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.5% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, recommend selling 75% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 275,000 yuan and selling 25% of call options (SN2511C275000) when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, recommend buying 50% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 230,000 yuan and selling 25% of put options (SN2511P260000) when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - **Domestic**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin main contract, Shanghai tin continuous - one, and Shanghai tin continuous - three are all stable, while the price of LME tin 3M is 34,425 US dollars per ton, down 195 US dollars or 0.56% [6] - **Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89, up 0.04 or 0.51% [6] - **Spot Data**: - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and some solder products have increased slightly on a weekly basis, while some other products are stable [10] - **Imports and Processing Fees**: Tin import profit and loss is - 18,752.84 yuan per ton, down 7.34% daily, and tin ore processing fees are stable [10] 4. Tin Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,495 tons, up 1.19% daily, with different changes in Guangdong and Shanghai [13] - **LME Inventory**: The total LME tin inventory is 2,195 tons, up 0.92% [13]

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, affected by enterprise maintenance and lower tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with a stable macro - environment, tin prices may rise slightly further, with the upper target set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price is 273,120 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 12.99%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.4% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: 273,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - LME Tin 3M: 34,620 dollars/ton, down 115 dollars (- 0.33%) [6] - Shanghai - London ratio: 7.85, up 0.08 (1.03%) [6] - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: 273,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.4%) [10] - 1 tin premium: 0 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (- 100%) [10] - 40% tin concentrate: 261,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - 60% tin concentrate: 265,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - Other tin - related products also showed varying degrees of price changes [10] 4. Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import and Processing Data (Daily)**: - Tin import profit and loss: - 20,238.59 yuan/ton, up 143.67 yuan (- 0.7%) [12] - 40% tin ore processing fee: 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - 60% tin ore processing fee: 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - **Inventory Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts: 7,407 tons, up 144 tons (1.98%) [14] - LME tin inventory: 2,175 tons, up 20 tons (0.93%) [14]