Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market shows mixed performance, with nickel futures experiencing a decline amid macroeconomic pressures and stable spot prices for nickel sulfate [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has sharply decreased, with several officials signaling a hawkish stance, leading to a reduced probability of a rate cut in December [1] - The Fed's bond-buying plan in December may help alleviate dollar liquidity pressures [1] Spot Market Analysis - On November 14, the prices for nickel sulfate remained stable, with battery-grade nickel sulfate crystal price at 28,150 yuan/ton, battery-grade liquid nickel sulfate at 27,750 yuan/ton, and electroplating-grade nickel sulfate at 29,700 yuan/ton, all unchanged from the previous day [1] - The price for electroplating-grade nickel chloride was also stable at 33,500 yuan/ton [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic and Indonesian pure nickel production capacity is still in an expansion phase, maintaining high overall nickel supply, while demand remains stable with no significant improvement expected [1] - The widening gap between supply and demand has led to a substantial increase in global nickel inventories, contributing to weaker nickel prices [1] Market Outlook - The planned reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia for next year is expected to have a limited impact on the market, with refined nickel inventories showing a trend of accumulation, leading to short-term price fluctuations [1]

Group 1 - The nickel price experienced significant fluctuations in early 2023, initially rising to over 136,000 yuan/ton due to macroeconomic factors and Indonesian policy changes, before dropping to a low of 115,000 yuan/ton in April amid rising global market risk aversion [1] - The Indonesian government implemented a new PNBP policy on April 26, adjusting tax rates for nickel mining, which is expected to impact production costs for nickel miners and subsequently affect downstream prices [2] - Despite the recent price drop, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to adverse weather conditions, providing a bottom support for nickel prices, which are currently stable between 120,000 and 130,000 yuan/ton [3][8] Group 2 - The refined nickel supply in April reached 36,300 tons, a year-on-year increase of 47.26%, indicating a high supply level historically, while demand from the stainless steel sector remains weak due to slow recovery in real estate transactions [6] - The market for ternary batteries showed a significant increase in production, with a total of 56.6 GWh in March, but the market share for ternary batteries is declining due to the competitive advantage of lithium iron phosphate batteries [6] - Social inventory of refined nickel in China was 43,700 tons as of May 2, showing a slight decrease of 1% month-on-month but a 24% increase year-on-year, indicating a trend of inventory accumulation [6][8]