近期煤炭板块的大幅上涨主要是由于印尼煤炭配额政策的变化。印尼政府决定 大幅下调煤炭出口配额，从 2025 年的 7.31 亿吨配额和 7.91 亿吨实际产量， 降至 6 亿吨左右。这一变化引发了市场对煤炭供应紧缺的担忧，特别是对于依 赖印尼低卡煤的南方电厂而言，这种预期导致了市场反应剧烈。 为什么印尼政府要限制资源品的配额？ 印尼政府限制资源品配额的原因主要有两个方面。首先，当前 3,800 大卡 M42 煤种 FOB 价格约为 47 美元，而矿山成本在 40-45 美元之间，价格接近成本上 限。为了增加财政收入，印尼计划征收 5-8%的出口税。但在当前价格水平下， 再加上出口税，许多矿山将无利可图，从而可能选择停产。其次，通过减少配 其他主要供应国如澳大利亚受飓风影响，美国因国内用电需求增加而减 少出口，以及俄罗斯高成本等因素，难以弥补印尼煤炭出口减少造成的 缺口，预计四五月份煤价可能上涨。 建议投资者关注煤炭板块的投资机会，推荐配置海外业务布局较多的兖 矿能源，以及优质焦煤动力煤公司如中煤、陕煤等，同时关注镍品种的 后续配置机会。 煤与镍：印尼减少配额的逻辑与进展 20260204 摘要 印尼煤炭配额大幅 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs indicates that if Indonesia implements stricter mining quota restrictions on nickel by 2026, global nickel prices may significantly rise, with an average price expected to approach $18,000 per ton, higher than the previously set baseline scenario forecast [1] - Under the baseline scenario, Goldman Sachs estimates the average nickel price in 2026 to be around $14,800 per ton, but tighter resource development policies from the Indonesian government could reduce mining quotas to 260 million tons, leading to a slowdown in global nickel supply growth and tightening market supply-demand dynamics [1] - The market is closely monitoring Indonesia's resource policy direction, as stricter quota limits could not only impact raw ore supply but also have a cascading effect on the production pace of downstream nickel pig iron and high-grade nickel products, potentially increasing costs across the entire industry chain [1] Group 2 - The Director General of Minerals and Coal at Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Terry Winarno, stated that the nickel mining quota (RKAB) target for 2026 is approximately 250 to 260 million tons, which will be strictly matched with domestic smelting capacity, lower than market expectations [1] - Following the Indonesian government's signal of tightening nickel mining quotas, international nickel prices reacted swiftly, with the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price briefly surpassing $18,000 per ton, reaching a new high for the period [1]