盛屯矿业 20251120 摘要 盛屯矿业核心资产集中于刚果金，包括卡隆威铜钴矿及新收购的高品位 露天金矿，以及印尼高冰镍生产基地，实施"上控资源，下拓材料"的 全球化战略，优化营收结构，铜业务贡献主要毛利。 卡隆威铜钴矿已全面投产并达满产，2023 年产量超 6 万吨，周边勘探 区显示巨大增储潜力，与西部前沿矿区重叠，勘探面积超 300 平方公里， 未来可采储量潜力巨大。 公司在刚果金布局三个冶炼厂，预计 2026 年达满产 18 万吨，上市公 司权益产能约 11.5 万吨，香港科力新项目盈利显著，2024 年上半年已 达 5.42 亿元。 公司计划以 13.5 亿元收购加拿大上市公司股份，获得刚果金金矿 84.68%权益，资源量 123.6 吨，平均品位近 3 克/吨，露天开采，预计 年产黄金 6-7 吨，成本 300-350 美元/盎司。 尽管刚果金存在地缘政治风险，但公司项目远离冲突区，附近巴里克金 矿稳定运营超 10 年，运输问题通过陆运和空运结合解决，整体经营风 险可控。 Q&A 盛屯矿业的资源层面有哪些关键点？ 盛屯矿业在资源层面上有几个关键点。首先，公司在刚果金拥有一个重要的铜 矿探矿权，紧邻 ...

短期基本面压力明显， 镍价或继续承压 镍周报 2025/11/22 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 05 硫酸镍 03 成本端 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 精炼镍 02 期现市场 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周镍矿价格稳中微跌。菲律宾方面，国内镍铁冶炼厂成本倒挂加剧，对矿需求显著走弱，港口库存累积明显。虽然本周菲律宾矿价 未有下跌，但预计后市在终端需求走弱背景下，矿价或将承压运行。印尼方面，近期镍矿石产量增长明显，火法矿整体供需相对宽松，加之镍 铁价格持续下跌，印尼铁厂利润率接近为零，对高价矿接受程度较低，预计后市矿价或小幅下跌；湿法矿市场仍相对平淡，预计在MHP需求支 撑下价格持稳运行为主。 ◆ 镍铁：本周终端消费表现疲软，负反馈效应带动高镍生铁价格继续下滑。需求端，当前处于不锈钢需求传统淡季，终端消费表现疲软，下游企 业在库存高企，采购谨慎，观望情绪浓厚。供应端，市场 ...

近日，贵州 福泉再迎锂电材料大项目！ 11月初， 贵商发展大会举办，会上 盛屯集团 "矿化材一体"磷酸铁锂正极材料项目正式签约，标志着 盛屯目前单体投资最大的磷酸铁锂项目 成功 落地。 项目总投资59亿元， 选址贵州黔南州福泉市，将 依托当地超20亿吨的磷矿资源优势，打造"磷矿开采-磷酸铁-磷酸铁锂"一体化产业链。 据 悉， 项目涵盖年产24万吨磷酸铁及20万吨磷酸铁锂产能，建成后将新增就业1000余人， 新增年产值达120亿元以上。 据观察， 盛屯集团并非首次在黔进行投资，最早于 2021年5月落户福泉，并规划分2期 建设电池级新能源材料发展基地。 一期项目2024年 6月已 全面投运， 形成15万吨电池级硫酸镍、2万吨高冰镍的稳定产能，贵金属综合回收系统同步运行。二期项目将重点拓展磷系材料，规 划建设30万吨磷酸铁、15万吨硫酸镍及1万吨钴产品生产线。 在此过程中，基于 盛屯年产30万吨硫酸镍、1万金属吨钴项目， 盛屯集团还在 2023年 联手 厦钨新能， 合资建设了福泉厦钨10万吨镍钴锰 三元前驱体项目，目前项目在推进中。 因此在起点锂电看来，本次贵州 福泉项目是 盛屯集团在贵州地区实现 高端三元前驱体 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Views of the Report - The recent decline in nickel prices is due to the superposition of fundamental pressures, with the continuous weakness of ferronickel prices being the direct cause and the decline in nickel sulfate demand exacerbating the surplus expectation of refined nickel [2][5][12]. - The short - term support level for nickel prices may be around 115,000 yuan/ton, but it is not recommended to buy at this level [12]. 3) Summary by Related Contents Recent Nickel Price Decline - Recently, nickel prices broke through the previous shock platform, with the Shanghai nickel main contract closing at 117,080 yuan/ton on November 14, a decline of 2.16%, and the LME nickel at $14,860/ton, a weekly decline of 1.07% [5]. - The decline is due to the continuous growth of refined nickel inventory since October, the accelerated decline of ferronickel prices since November, the expected increase in refined nickel supply, and the weakening demand for nickel sulfate [5]. Weak Ferronickel Price and High - Ice Nickel Conversion Expectation - Stainless steel demand is weak, driving down ferronickel prices. As of November 14, the domestic high - nickel pig iron ex - factory price has dropped to around 900 yuan/nickel point [7]. - The price deviation between refined nickel and ferronickel has led to a higher premium of refined nickel, increasing the expectation of ferronickel conversion to high - ice nickel. High - ice nickel production reached 36,000 tons in October and is expected to increase in November [7]. Weakening Nickel Sulfate Demand - Affected by the over - expected growth of new energy vehicles, ternary battery production was strong in the third quarter, but nickel sulfate demand may have reached its annual high seasonally [9]. - The cancellation of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption policy in 2026 may lead to a decline in new energy vehicle sales, and a significant drop in the premium of nickel sulfate over refined nickel may push intermediates into the refined nickel market, exacerbating the surplus expectation [9]. Short - Term Support for Nickel Prices - The continuous weakness of ferronickel prices and the decline in nickel sulfate demand are the main reasons for the decline of refined nickel prices [12]. - The current ferronickel profit level is at an absolute low, and the ferronickel price may be close to a phased low. The corresponding nickel price support level is around 115,000 yuan/ton [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel is in a low - level oscillation due to the game between high inventory accumulation and Indonesian risks. Stainless steel has a weak reality that drags down steel prices and is in a short - term low - level oscillation. Industrial silicon has a strong upward drive for the disk due to warehouse receipt depletion. Polysilicon is in a policy vacuum period and the disk returns to fundamentals. Lithium carbonate may face downward risks from mine resumption. Palm oil may see the end of short - term negative news with the MPOB report next week, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts in November. Soybean oil is mainly for long - allocation without an independent upward drive. Soybean meal is oscillating, waiting for the guidance of the USDA supply - demand report. Soybean No.1 is oscillating due to repeated trade sentiment. Corn requires attention to the spot market. Sugar requires attention to policy changes. Cotton is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the near term. Live pigs are accumulating contradictions and waiting for spot confirmation. Peanuts are facing supply pressure [2][4][5][28][69][80]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals** - Nickel: High inventory accumulation and supply - demand imbalance on the one hand, and uncertainties in Indonesian policies on the other hand, result in a low - level oscillation. The replacement of nickel plates with ferronickel in the nickel alloy end and the expected increase in pure nickel production limit the upward elasticity. However, the uncertainty of Indonesian supply governance policies makes short - sellers lack confidence [4]. - Stainless steel: The lack of upward drive in the real fundamentals, with weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle, high upstream inventory, and a large number of expiring warehouse receipts, leads to a low - level oscillation. Although the supply is elastic, the cost decline also limits the downward space [5]. - **Inventory Tracking** - Refined nickel: On November 7, the 27 - warehouse social inventory of refined nickel in China increased by 1934 tons to 50,680 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1002 tons to 253,104 tons [6]. - Stainless steel: In October, SMM stainless steel mill inventory was 1.574 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 3%. On November 6, SMM stainless steel social inventory slightly decreased to 946,000 tons, and the total social inventory of steel - linked stainless steel increased by 0.29% week - on - week [8]. - **Market News** - There are multiple events in Indonesia, such as the takeover of a nickel mine by the forestry working group, sanctions on mining companies, and regulations on the approval of RKAB. In addition, China has suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia, and Trump has proposed additional tariffs on China [9][10][11]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends** - Industrial silicon: The disk price is strongly oscillated, and the spot price has increased. It closed at 9220 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - Polysilicon: The disk center has declined, and the spot price is stable, closing at 53,215 yuan/ton on Friday [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Industrial silicon: The supply side has a slight reduction in weekly industry inventory. The southwest region has reduced production, and the overall output in November - December is expected to decrease. The demand side is supported by polysilicon and silicone, but the demand may decline in the future [29][30]. - Polysilicon: The short - term weekly output has decreased, and the upstream inventory is flat. The demand side has a decrease in silicon wafer production scheduling [30][31]. - **Market Outlook** - Industrial silicon: The depletion of warehouse receipts provides upward drive for the disk. It is recommended to take a long - position approach when the price drops [33]. - Polysilicon: In the policy vacuum period, the disk trades based on supply - demand. It is recommended to short at high prices [33]. 3.3 Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends** - The futures contract oscillates widely in the range of 77,000 - 83,000 tons. The 2511 contract closes at 80,460 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1160 yuan/ton, and the 2601 contract closes at 82,300 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 1520 yuan/ton [69]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals** - Supply: The weekly output increases to 21,534 tons, and the inventory decreases by 3405 tons to 124,000 tons. The cost of lithium carbonate may increase due to the supplementary payment of mining rights transfer income [70]. - Demand: In October 2025, the domestic energy storage market completed 10GW/29.4GWh of energy storage system and EPC general contracting bidding, showing a decline compared to September [70]. - **Market Outlook** - There is a risk of price decline after the resumption of mines in Jiangxi. The futures main - contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 83,000 yuan/ton [71]. 3.4 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Previous Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: The market is worried about high production in Malaysia in the fourth quarter, and the 01 contract decreased by 1.59% last week, with a possible short - term stabilization [80]. - Soybean oil: In a large - supply environment, it follows the oil and fat sector to oscillate weakly, but its strong export demand makes it relatively strong among oil and fat varieties, and the 01 contract increased by 0.39% last week [80]. - **This Week's Views and Logic** - Palm oil: Malaysia may have high production in the fourth quarter, and the inventory is expected to be high. Indonesia has large export pressure in November. Although it may show a short - term end of negative news, the market has not fully priced in the high production in November - December. The inventory at the origin is expected to increase, and the price needs additional demand stimulation to stabilize [81]. - Soybean oil: The production situation in Brazil is good, and the supply is large. The domestic soybean arrival is sufficient, and the export demand may maintain the monthly de - stocking process. It is mainly for long - allocation but has no independent upward drive [84].

前言 镍+铜+黄金，在全球最大镍生产国拥有超3万吨高冰镍项目，铜矿地处世界最大的中非铜矿带，布局消费 电子和三元前驱体领域，拟收购海外金矿，这家公司产业链延伸至锌锗回收领域。 《电报解读》是一款主打时效性和专业性的即时资讯解读产品。侧重于挖掘重要事件的投资价值、分析 产业链公司以及解读重磅政策的要点。即时为用户提供快讯信息对市场影响的投资参考，将信息的价值 用专业的视角、朴素的语言、图文并茂的方式呈现给用户。 ...

Summary of Weiming Environmental Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Weiming Environmental - **Industry**: Waste Incineration and New Materials Key Points Financial Performance - In 2024, Weiming Environmental's waste incineration segment generated revenue of **3.37 billion yuan** with a gross margin of **59.5%**, significantly above the industry average due to advanced technology and self-manufacturing capabilities [2][3][10] - The company achieved a gross profit of **2 billion yuan** in the waste incineration segment, reflecting strong operational efficiency [3] Market Expansion Strategy - Weiming Environmental has chosen **Indonesia** as a key market for overseas expansion due to its large population of approximately **300 million** and significant economic potential [4][5] - The Indonesian government employs a sovereign fund model for waste incineration project tenders, enhancing project revenue certainty [5] - The company aims to capture about **20%** of the Indonesian market, equivalent to **1/4** of its domestic scale [6] Strategic Partnerships - Collaboration with **Qingshan Holding** in high-nickel smelting and downstream nickel electrolysis is a strategic move to penetrate the new energy materials sector [2][6] - The partnership is expected to yield initial results and contribute to revenue growth [2][5] Risk Management - To mitigate risks associated with overseas expansion, Weiming Environmental collaborates with established firms like Qingshan Holding and adopts a **PPP model** to align interests with local governments [9] - The company emphasizes enhancing its operational management capabilities to ensure successful project implementation [9] Future Growth Projections - By **2026**, the company's PE ratio is projected to drop to around **11 times**, with overall profitability expected to double [2][7] - The forecasted net profit for 2026 is estimated to reach between **3.4 billion to 3.5 billion yuan**, corresponding to a PE valuation of less than **12 times** [20] Equipment Manufacturing and New Materials - The equipment manufacturing segment has shown a strong recovery, with revenues of **2.9 billion yuan** in 2023, a **56%** increase year-on-year [13] - New materials business, including high-nickel smelting, is expected to contribute significantly to revenue as it enters the operational phase [14][17] Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a significant turnaround in free cash flow, reaching **707 million yuan** in the first three quarters, compared to a negative **160 million yuan** in the same period last year [18][19] - The asset-liability ratio stands at approximately **40%**, indicating a solid financial position to support future investments [19] Conclusion - Weiming Environmental is positioned for robust growth in both domestic and international markets, particularly in Indonesia, with strategic partnerships and a focus on operational efficiency driving its expansion and profitability [8][20]

Core Insights - The Huaihua International Land Port has achieved significant growth in freight volume, surpassing 1,000 trains this year, with a notable increase in high-value products [1][2] - The logistics network has expanded to cover 69 countries and regions, with 196 international and domestic routes established [1] - The shift from low-value bulk commodities to high-value goods is evident, with the proportion of low-value products expected to drop from 55% in 2023 to 16% by 2025 [1] Group 1 - Huaihua International Land Port has dispatched 1,002 trains as of November 2, 2023, marking an early achievement compared to the previous year [1] - The port has developed a logistics network that includes 216 ports and stations globally, with seven major international logistics corridors in regular operation [1] - The local industries, including bag manufacturing, bamboo and wood products, and agricultural processing, are rapidly integrating into the global market, with significant export growth reported [1] Group 2 - The development of cold chain transportation has been a focus, with 3,038 cold chain containers of fruits and vegetables dispatched [2] - Regular operation of cold chain trains on the Xiang-Dian-Lan-Mekong route has been established, targeting specific products for expansion [2] - Future plans include enhancing cold chain services for products like dragon fruit, durian, and longan, aiming to create a distribution center for cold chain products in the Southwest region [2]

Core Insights - Hunan Huaihua International Land Port has achieved significant growth in freight volume, surpassing 1,000 trains by November 2, 2023, nearly two months ahead of last year's pace, with a notable optimization in cargo structure [1][2] Group 1: Freight Volume and Structure - The land port has shipped a total of 1,002 trains this year, indicating a strong operational performance [1] - The cargo structure has shifted from low-value bulk commodities, such as ores, which accounted for 55% in 2023, to high-value products like high-purity nickel, electric vehicles, and photovoltaic components, expected to drop to 16% by 2025 [2] - This transition enhances the total freight value per train and reflects a positive trend towards high-end and green development in the region [2] Group 2: Import and Export Dynamics - The import-export ratio has improved from 1.6:1 in 2024 to approximately 1.4:1 currently, indicating a stable import scale while significantly increasing export volume [4] - Local industries, including bags, bamboo-wood products, and agricultural processing, are rapidly developing, with bag exports reaching 1,190 TEUs, an 82% increase, and bamboo products at 364 TEUs, a 56% increase [4] Group 3: Cold Chain Development - The land port has significantly expanded its cold chain transportation, with 3,038 TEUs of cold chain fruits and vegetables shipped, exceeding the annual target by 506% [4] - Regular operations of cold chain trains on the Xiang-Dian-Lan-Mekong line have been established, focusing on products like dragon fruit, durian, and longan to enhance the cold chain logistics network [4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The land port plans to further expand train routes and optimize service functions to attract more high-value products while supporting local specialties in international markets [5] - With the increasing proportion of high-value products and optimized export structure, Huaihua is positioning itself as a crucial gateway and transportation hub connecting Central China with ASEAN and serving the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership [5]

Group 1 - The company is actively advancing the construction progress of the Guizhou project, with the first phase expected to achieve trial production and debugging by the end of December 2024, including a zinc roasting acid production line with a capacity of 100,000 metal tons per year, a waste heat power generation system, a nickel sulfate production line of 150,000 tons, and a high-grade nickel production line of 20,000 metal tons [2] - As of now, the first phase of the Guizhou project is basically meeting the design capacity requirements, and the company is currently optimizing the production line [2] - Under full-load production conditions, the production cost can reach an upper-middle level in the industry, indicating competitive cost efficiency [2]