镍&不锈钢：底部支撑有所松动 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 管理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购 管理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 心原料价格上涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 提前采购锁定生产成本 卖出看跌期权 | ...

2025年6月中国镍生铁实际产量金属量2.33万吨，环比降幅2.87%，同比降幅7.35%。中高镍生铁产量1.67万吨，环比降幅4.17%，同比降幅13.51%；低镍生铁 产量0.67万吨，环比增加0.53%，同比增加12.68%。2025年1-6月中国镍生铁总金属产量13.8万吨，同比减少5.06%，其中中高镍生铁镍金属产量10.09万吨， 同比减少9.04%。 自2023年下半年开始，国内镍铁企业普遍处于生产倒挂现象，加之印尼镍铁生产具有原材料和成本优势，印尼镍铁产能释放，回流国内，倒逼国内企业减 产，中国镍铁产量持续下滑，2024年-2025年中国镍铁月均产量为2.41万吨金属量，较2022年-2023年月均产量下滑26%。2025年6月全国镍生铁金属量和实物 量双双下行，主因6月国内冶炼厂镍矿成本进一步抬升，而成品价格下跌至年内低位，原料和成品价格背离，导致冶炼厂亏损扩大。国内传统冶炼厂均下调 了生产负荷，叠加部分冶炼厂品位有所下滑，另外华北某冶炼厂自6月检修结束后，爬产缓慢，导致当月金属量下滑幅度较大。 SHMET 网讯：据Mysteel调研统计，2025年6月中国&印尼镍生铁实际产量金属量总计17 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth and development of Weiming Environmental Protection over the past decade, emphasizing its successful transition from a machinery manufacturer to a leader in waste incineration and environmental solutions [2][11]. Group 1: Company History and Development - Weiming Environmental Protection was founded on the basis of the Xinghuo Light Industry Machinery Factory established in the 1980s, which initially produced valves and food machinery parts [4]. - In 1998, the company pivoted to waste incineration equipment after recognizing a market opportunity presented by the local government’s plans to build a waste incineration plant [4][6]. - The company successfully developed domestic waste incineration technology, overcoming initial challenges related to the unique characteristics of domestic waste [6][7]. Group 2: Business Segments and Growth - Weiming Environmental Protection has established three main business segments: environmental governance, equipment manufacturing, and new energy materials [2][7]. - As of the end of 2024, the company operates 55 waste incineration power generation projects across the country, with a daily waste processing capacity of 37,300 tons [6][7]. - The company has expanded its operations to include waste collection, incineration power generation, and treatment of various types of waste, leveraging its technological advantages [7]. Group 3: Technological and Strategic Innovations - The company has developed a comprehensive environmental equipment solution that includes flue gas purification systems and automatic control systems, enhancing its manufacturing capabilities [7][8]. - In 2022, Weiming Environmental Protection initiated its first high-nickel project in Indonesia, marking its entry into the new materials sector [7][8]. - The company has established a synergy between its existing waste incineration technology and new material production, leading to innovations in nickel smelting processes [10]. Group 4: Management Philosophy and Future Outlook - The company emphasizes a pragmatic growth strategy, avoiding trends without prior experience, which has contributed to its consistent performance over the past decade [9]. - A unique management philosophy involves sharing a significant portion of project profits with the operational management team, fostering loyalty and stability within the workforce [10]. - Looking ahead, the company aims to continue expanding in the low-carbon environmental sector and explore opportunities for industry consolidation and international market expansion [11].

专题报告 2025-07-01 从"火法"到"湿法"，如何看待镍价成本支撑？ 吴坤金 报告要点： 近期镍价持续下跌，逐步逼近今年前期低点。在此背景下，镍价底部支撑水平成为当前市场关 注的焦点。本篇报告梳理了不同工艺对应的镍价成本支撑位置，为读者理解当前镍价下跌的主 要驱动因素以及未来走势提供参考。 刘显杰（联系人） 有色研究员 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 图 1：印尼内贸火法镍矿价格 图 2：精炼镍相对镍铁溢价（元/镍） 数据来源：SMM、五矿期货研究中心 数据来源：Mysteel、五矿期货研究中心 湿法工艺成本有所抬升，但仍处于较低水平 HPAL 湿法工艺是红土镍矿主要处理方式之一，由于原料可以使用低品位镍矿，成本优势明显。 2024 年以来，随着华友钴业、力勤资源和格林美等中资企业的湿法项目在印尼大规模投产，印 尼 MHP 产量快速增加，目前单月产量最高达到 4.05 万吨镍金属。 中长期来看，由于湿法矿资源充 ...

镍&不锈钢：持续底部磨底 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | 管理 | 值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 管理 | 心原料价格上涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 | 远月沪镍合约 | 买入 | 依据采购 | 3 | | | | 提前采购锁 ...

镍&不锈钢：当前价格接近支撑线，基本面仍然承压 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.7-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级（满 分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 管理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减 值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利 润，对冲现货下跌风险 | 沪镍主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面 提前采购锁定生产成本 | 远月沪镍合约 | ...

Group 1 - Nickel prices have recently declined due to the Philippines' decision to remove the export ban on raw minerals, which has impacted market sentiment and led to a drop in prices [1] - The Philippines aims to promote domestic mining development by implementing a mineral export ban similar to Indonesia's, but the current weak demand in stainless steel and new energy sectors has dampened investment motivation [1][2] - Indonesia has become the largest producer of nickel globally, and its new nickel mining quota approval policy has slowed down the approval process, affecting market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - Despite the recent drop in nickel prices, the supply of nickel ore remains tight due to seasonal weather impacts in both Indonesia and the Philippines, which has kept prices relatively high [3][4] - Domestic nickel iron smelting plants are experiencing losses, leading to reduced production and a decline in procurement demand [4][5] - The production of nickel intermediate products, particularly MHP, is expected to increase, which may lead to a further decline in cost levels in the industry [7][9] Group 3 - The demand for refined nickel has shown positive growth, particularly driven by the emerging need for pre-plated nickel materials in battery production, which is expected to create a significant supply-demand gap [13] - Traditional demand from stainless steel production is weakening, with notable reductions in output and a slower pace of inventory depletion [14][15] - The overall supply tightness in nickel ore and intermediate products is expected to provide cost support for nickel prices, although weak terminal demand may limit price increases [17]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 18 日 镍：镍矿矛盾托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值 不锈钢：成本底部空间清晰，上行缺乏实质驱动 库存变化： 1）中国精炼镍社会库存减少 763 吨至 42928 吨。其中，仓单库存增加 75 吨至 23501 吨，现货库存 减少 838 吨至 12957 吨，保税区库存持平至 6470 吨。LME 镍库存减少 2448 吨至 195222 吨。 2）有色网 5 月中旬底镍铁库存 29554.5 吨，同/环比+36%/4%，库存压力边际增加。 3）钢联不锈钢库存变化：不锈钢社会库存 1108250 吨，周环比减 0.42%。其中，冷轧不锈钢库存量 675382 吨，周环比减 3.71%。 热轧不锈钢库存量 432868 吨，周环比增 5.17%。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：印尼镍矿溢价坚挺托底，转产经济性或限制上方估值。首先，印尼高品位镍矿偏紧推升 一体化火法成本，1.6%镍矿溢价边际上行 2 美金至 27-28 美金/湿吨，总价同比增加 25 ...

Financial Performance - The net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 45.85% year-on-year in 2024, driven by expanded copper and cobalt production capacity and increased sales volume [3] - The company has a stable cash flow and a relatively low debt-to-asset ratio, indicating strong financial capability to support acquisitions of quality mineral resources [5] Risk Management - The company employs various insurance strategies, including property insurance and political risk insurance, to mitigate risks associated with overseas asset operations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo [1] - To avoid foreign exchange losses, the company locks in exchange rates based on expected foreign currency cash flows and adjusts its asset-liability structure accordingly [2] ESG Commitment - The company integrates sustainable development principles into daily management and operations, actively fulfilling corporate social responsibilities [3] - Future efforts will focus on enhancing ESG governance levels in line with national policies and industry standards [3] Market Outlook - The global demand for cobalt is expected to rise due to the continuous expansion of the electric vehicle market, with projected growth rates exceeding 20% in the coming years [7] - The company anticipates benefiting from increased demand for cobalt in smart wearable devices and robotics [7] Production Capacity - Current production capacities include 5,000 tons of cathode materials and 15,000 tons of electrolytic cobalt, with plans for further expansion [11] - The company is also developing a high-nickel project in Indonesia, aiming for an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons by March 2026 [12] Stock Management - The company completed a share repurchase plan in 2024, having repurchased 129,148 shares to enhance investor confidence [4] - A new market value management system has been established to improve the company's investment value and maximize overall value for shareholders [5] Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges from the uneven distribution of copper, cobalt, and nickel resources globally, particularly the political instability in the Democratic Republic of the Congo affecting cobalt supply [10] - However, the stable demand from traditional industries and the push for sustainable practices present opportunities for growth [9]

期货研究报告 商品研究 [Table_ReportType] 沪锌早报 [Table_S 宏观&行业消息： ummary]【因贸易战，泰克考虑其美国精矿其他出口方案】据外媒， 在中国对美国商品征收新一轮报复性关税后，泰克旗下从阿拉斯加发往中 国的 Red Dog 矿山的铅锌精矿成了中美贸易冲突的"牺牲品"。据悉，泰克 高层第一时间与中国客户进行了沟通，但买家表示，不愿意为即将发运的 Red Dog 货品支付完整的关税。Teck 的商务团队近期已飞往中国与主要客 户重新谈判销售合同，讨论了包含"用来自旗下其他矿山或第三方的锌精 矿替换 Red Dog 产出"等方案。泰克 CEO Jonathan Price 于 4 月 24 日的 财报电话会议上表示，中方对美国进口产品施加的关税水平的确带来了供 应挑战，商务团队正在评估多种可行方案，不排除调整供货地转向其他市 场。但 Red Dog 每年只会在夏季海冰融化后的 4 个月内将全年产量发出， 所以泰克仍有时间敲定解决方案，其精矿需求强劲且有广泛的客户基础。 供应：矿企利润受到关税政策影响，前期锌锭价格下跌使得拥有锌锭所 有权的矿企利润大幅收缩，单吨利润从 6000 ...