长江商报奔腾新闻记者 邹平 也就是说，限售股解除限售后的三年，梁建坤父子合计减持套现9.52亿元。 2025年7月，江苏拓邦、江苏汉唐等股东宣布拟减持不超过3%股份（约360万股），理由均为"自身资金 需求"。 长江商报奔腾新闻记者注意到，8月15日，寒锐钴业公告为全资子公司香港寒锐提供不超过1.2亿美元银 行授信担保，资金专项用于印尼年产2万吨镍金属量高冰镍项目建设。 高冰镍是制备硫酸镍的核心原料，而硫酸镍占三元电池正极材料成本40%。项目2026年3月投产后，可 满足40万辆电动汽车需求，补足公司"钴粉-前驱体"产业链短板。该项目投产后预计年营收23.7亿元，毛 利率29.2%，将成为第二增长曲线。 8月26日晚，寒锐钴业（300618.SZ）公布了2025年上半年财报，公司实现营业收入31.68亿元，同比增 长23.77%；净利润1.27亿元，同比大幅增长102.94%。 值得注意的是，公司2025年一季度扣非净利润为2223万，同比下降63.59%，但二季度就上升到8307 万，迅速扭转颓势，显示产能爬坡后的盈利弹性。 回溯公司近两年业绩，2023年到2024年，寒锐钴业经历了业绩从承压到复苏的周期： ...

深度报告—镍 mingfTable_Title] 潜龙蓄锐，待势乘时 --成本与产能视角下的长周期展望 [Table_Rank] 走势评级： 镍：震荡 报告日期： 2025 年 8 月 26 日 [Table_Summary] ★镍铁&不锈钢：情同手足，患难与共 2006 至 2010 年，不锈钢快速放量主导镍库存大量消化，起初 NPI 生产技术难以支持显著放量，镍由此表现出较大向上弹性， 反造成不锈钢成本端高企。在原料紧缺和降本需求下，NPI 于 2010 年起踏入不锈钢主要原料队列（2011 年原料占比已达 50% 以上），越来越多的企业利用炼钢高炉冶炼红土镍矿生产 NPI， 供应周期转向快速放量，最终走成"供给增--价格跌"逻辑。 ★中间品：技术突破，原料结构洗牌 同镍铁&不锈钢类似，2020 年左右，新能源汽车的高速发展打开 了镍的第二增长曲线，起初"补能焦虑"使得三元电池大放异彩， 倒逼冶炼端二元供需失衡走出镍价单边上涨行情，纯镍酸溶硫酸 镍利润空间急剧收窄，红土镍矿湿法工艺应运而生，同时青山在 2021 年打通镍铁到高冰镍技术路径，为过剩镍铁找到新消费出 路。此外，电积工艺产线于 2023 年起大 ...

1、现货价格：国产金川品牌维持12.20万元，其他品牌11.98万元附近，期货升水500元 2、成本端：港口镍矿库存增加110.69万湿吨至1205.85万湿吨，增幅10.11% 3、仓单量：交易所库存维持高位，沪镍较上期增加447吨至2.25万吨。据LME公布数据显示，截至7月31日LME原产自中国镍库存升至128058吨，较上 月增加6630吨 华安期货投研 黑色金属周报 跌破1.3万关口后市如何进行---不锈钢/沪镍 核心逻辑： 不锈钢：短期关注三点：1、印尼青山、甬金本周再度调涨出口报价，华南某钢厂因原料缺乏而停机一周，总体对 于盘面有所支撑。2、主力合约贴水现货价格，期限结构整体扁平，远月升水不足，远期盘面稍显偏弱。3、原材料 镍铁价格价格企稳，同时钢厂8月排产小幅企稳，产能压力缓和的同时不锈钢传统的旺季，有利于稳定市场盘面。 未来行情变盘在于主力持仓能否提前转移至2601合约，未来不能过于悲观，短期下行空间有限，支撑位1.25-1.29 万。 沪镍：短期关注两点:1、9月降息预期仍然存疑，美联储降息对于有色金属的企稳起到支撑作用。2、本周沪镍增仓 下跌，近月盘面跌破12万关口，短期盘面较弱。长期重 ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's nickel industry is experiencing a profound internal contradiction, with nickel exports surpassing coal for the first time, marking a peak in the country's mineral downstream integration strategy initiated in 2014. However, the world's largest nickel producer, Tsingshan Holding, has paused some nickel smelting lines due to global oversupply and profit pressure, indicating structural risks in Indonesia's nickel-centric industrial strategy [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Nickel Industry Dynamics - In H1 2025, Indonesia's nickel export value reached $16.5 billion, exceeding coal's $14.4 billion, making nickel the largest export commodity [3]. - The success of Indonesia's nickel industry, driven by a decade-long integration strategy, has led to a saturation point in value growth, prompting the government to accelerate a complex industrial transformation towards a complete new energy industry chain [4][6]. - The government plans to reduce nickel ore production quotas from 272 million tons to 150 million tons by 2025 to stabilize prices and encourage investment in high-value products like nickel hydroxide and nickel sulfate [16]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Economic Transition - Indonesia's manufacturing sector has been underperforming, contributing only 19% to employment in 2023, significantly lower than manufacturing-led countries like Vietnam, raising concerns about falling into a "middle-income trap" [9][10]. - The "Making Indonesia 4.0" strategy aims to increase manufacturing's GDP contribution from under 20% to 25% by 2030, focusing on automotive, electronics, chemicals, textiles, and food and beverage sectors [11]. - The strategy seeks to replicate and upgrade the successful model established in the nickel industry, leveraging Indonesia's resource advantages to attract foreign investment in downstream processing [12][14]. Group 3: Electric Vehicle Market Growth - The electric vehicle market in Indonesia is experiencing explosive growth, with domestic EV sales soaring by 215.2% in H1 2025, and BYD leading with a market share of nearly 39% [23][24]. - The government aims to have 1.3 million electric two-wheelers on the road by 2030, contributing 5-8 GWh of battery demand annually [28]. - The RUPTL plan outlines a target of adding 10.3 GW of battery storage capacity, creating a significant market for energy storage solutions [29]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Investment Challenges - Indonesia's aging infrastructure poses significant challenges, with the national grid unable to effectively absorb renewable energy from remote areas, necessitating the construction of nearly 48,000 kilometers of new transmission lines [37]. - The unique "Indonesian model" requires companies bringing foreign capital to also build infrastructure, leading to high upfront capital expenditures and creating barriers for smaller participants [38]. - The establishment of the INA sovereign wealth fund is seen as a key player in reducing project risks for foreign investments, signaling a shift towards a more favorable financing environment for emerging industries [39]. Group 5: ESG Considerations and Future Outlook - Indonesia's green energy transition heavily relies on high-carbon coal power, raising significant ESG risks that could impact product marketability in regions with strict carbon footprint regulations [46]. - Collaborative projects, such as the one between Greeenme and Vale, aim to establish environmentally friendly nickel processing facilities, aligning with global ESG standards [47]. - Despite challenges, Indonesia is on track to create a complete lithium battery ecosystem, encompassing upstream resource extraction, midstream material refining, and downstream battery manufacturing, positioning itself as a critical player in the global battery industry [40][49].

Fundraising Overview - The company raised a total of RMB 4,999,999,756.40 by issuing 36,023,053 shares at RMB 138.80 per share, with a net amount of RMB 4,953,050,106.35 after deducting issuance costs [1] - In a subsequent issuance, the company raised RMB 4,307,296,507.20 by issuing 60,966,688 shares at RMB 70.65 per share, resulting in a net amount of RMB 4,272,871,066.92 after costs [2] Fund Utilization and Balance - As of the reporting period, the net amount of raised funds utilized was RMB 495,305.01 million, with an additional RMB 578.52 million from interest income [2] - The total amount invested in projects, excluding issuance costs, was RMB 495,978.65 million, with RMB 162,355.79 million used to replace pre-invested funds [2] - The remaining balance of unused funds was reported as zero, with all funds allocated to specific projects [2] Fund Management Practices - The company established dedicated bank accounts for the storage of raised funds, ensuring compliance with regulatory requirements [3][4] - A tripartite supervision agreement was signed with various banks and the sponsor to clarify the rights and obligations of all parties involved in fund management [3][4] Project Implementation Status - The company reported that there were no changes in the implementation locations or methods for the fundraising projects during the reporting period [6] - The company confirmed that there were no instances of using idle funds to temporarily supplement working capital [6] Performance of Funded Projects - The North Bay Industrial Base project has not fully met its expected capacity, impacting its performance [7] - The company indicated that the feasibility of projects has not undergone significant changes, and there were no major deviations from the planned investment progress [8]

镍价下跌空间有限，建 议逢低做多 镍周报 2025/08/16 刘显杰（联系人） 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0015924 从业资格号：F03130746 吴坤金（有色金属组） 从业资格号：F3036210 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 06 供需平衡 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 资源端：本周苏拉维西雨季告一段落，镍矿短期供应有所回升。同时印尼大部分RKAB审批额度基本完成，根据第三方统计，已经获准RKAB审批 额度约为3.1-3.3亿湿吨，镍矿供应紧缺得到缓解，短期矿价或小幅走弱。8月15日，1.6%品位印尼内贸红土镍矿到厂价报52.3美元/湿吨，价 格较上周持平，1.2%品位印尼内贸红土镍矿到厂价报24.5美金/湿吨，价格较上周下跌0.3美元/吨。 ◆ 镍铁：供给方面，由于铁厂利润处于较低水平，镍铁产量出现小幅下降。需求方面，不锈钢供应仍处于偏低水平，8月不锈钢产量环比基本持 平，同时需求端下游投机性补库为不锈钢需求带来一定支撑，不锈钢库存社会库存五周连降，预计后续不锈钢供应将小幅增加，带动镍铁需求 回升；总体 ...

Summary of Weiming Environmental Conference Call Company and Industry Overview - **Company**: Weiming Environmental - **Industry**: Nickel production and waste incineration power generation Key Points and Arguments Nickel Production - Weiming Environmental's first high ice nickel production line is expected to be operational by the end of the year, with a 70% stake in the project, projected to contribute approximately 400 million RMB in net profit attributable to the parent company, significantly enhancing 2026 performance [2][3] - Current high ice nickel prices are around $13,000 per ton, with estimated production costs controlled between $11,000 and $12,000 per ton [2][3] - The company has laid out plans for three nickel smelting projects, with the first project expected to reach full production by 2025, contributing to a total capacity of 40,000 tons [3] - The company also holds a 20% stake in a 20,000-ton wet nickel smelting project [3] Waste Incineration Power Generation - Total waste incineration power generation capacity has reached approximately 40,000 tons, ranking within the top ten in the industry, generating annual operational revenue of 1.7 to 2 billion RMB and over 3 billion RMB in cash flow [2][6] - The business model relies on waste treatment fees (30%) and electricity sales (70%) [6] - The industry has entered a stable operational phase, with capacity exceeding the 14th Five-Year Plan target, and new capacity additions are not expected to increase further [10] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's net cash ratio typically hovers around 1.3 times, indicating strong operational cash flow relative to net profit [8] - A significant national subsidy payment is expected to return in June to July 2025, indicating an acceleration in subsidy disbursement [9] - For 2025, the environmental business is projected to grow by about 10%, with total profits expected to reach around 3 billion RMB, corresponding to a market capitalization of over 30 billion RMB, resulting in a PE ratio of less than 11 [25] Future Growth and Expansion - Future growth points include the high ice nickel smelting industry and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia, where modern waste incineration facilities are lacking [17][18] - The company is exploring partnerships to apply waste incineration power generation to high-energy-consuming enterprises, enhancing revenue through green electricity supply policies [20] - The Shanghai Lingyun Volunteer Center project is expected to influence the industry towards a rental model for computing power [21] Challenges and Opportunities - The nickel industry is expected to see upward price trends due to low-cost production, rapid downstream demand growth, and concentrated supply dynamics [7] - The company faces challenges in overseas expansion, including higher investment costs (20%-30% more than domestic) but has opportunities for higher revenue in markets like Indonesia [19] Key Milestones - Key milestones include the operational launch of the new high ice nickel production line by the end of the year and decisions based on nickel cost data expected in the third or fourth quarter [27] Additional Important Information - The company has a full industrial chain equipment manufacturing capability, which reduces capital expenditure and enhances competitiveness [4][16] - The waste incineration power generation business is expected to maintain a dividend payout ratio of around 30%, keeping the dividend yield at approximately 3% [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the domestic anti - involution sentiment shows a game of differentiation, and the tariff agreement between the US and the EU as well as the rebound of the US dollar index may suppress prices. Fundamentally, the situation has not changed much, with nickel remaining in an oversupply situation. During the current metal consumption off - season, the overall demand for pure nickel downstream is relatively sluggish, and enterprises mainly purchase on demand. Stainless steel production cuts are less than expected, the spot market transactions are weak, and social inventories remain at a high level. Some ferronickel production lines are switching to producing nickel matte, and the ternary industry chain remains sluggish, with low demand for high - priced nickel sulfate. With the end of the rainy season, nickel ore inventories at ports are continuously increasing, and there is an expectation of a decline in ore prices [10]. - For nickel, the release of production capacity of secondary nickel in Indonesia and domestic electrowon nickel, the slowdown in demand growth, and the year - on - year expansion of the supply surplus. Although there is still a structural shortage of nickel ore, under the continuous negative feedback of the industrial chain, the smelter cost is significantly inverted. In the long run, the oversupply situation of nickel is difficult to reverse. In the short term, under the game of macro - sentiment and cost support, it is expected that SHFE nickel will fluctuate in the range of 【117000, 126000】 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to maintain the strategy of selling on rallies. - For stainless steel, with a large oversupply of production capacity, the price fluctuates with cost support. Currently, the production side and anti - involution stimulus support the price to some extent, but the impact of maintenance and production cuts on the overall production plan is limited, and the actual purchasing power of downstream in the traditional off - season is limited. In the long run, the oversupply will continue to suppress the price increase space. It is expected that SHFE stainless steel will fluctuate in the range of 【12300, 13100】 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the high end of the range [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Running Logic**: Domestically, the anti - involution sentiment shows a game of differentiation. Overseas, the tariff agreement between the US and the EU and the rebound of the US dollar index may suppress prices. Fundamentally, nickel remains in an oversupply situation, with low downstream demand for pure nickel and weak stainless steel market transactions [10]. - **Industry News**: The APNI Association has proposed re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore to include the economic value of iron and cobalt, which may increase smelting costs. The Indonesian government plans to change the RKAB approval cycle from three years to one year starting in 2026 and urges enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget starting in October 2025. An 11 - EF production line project in Indonesia has recently suspended production, which may affect ferronickel production by about 1900 metal tons per month [10]. - **Important Data**: This week, LME nickel inventories decreased by 3654 tons, domestic inventories increased by 135 tons, and global visible nickel inventories decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore remains at HPM + 24~HPM + 26, and the industry expects a high probability of a premium reduction in August. In June, China's stainless steel imports were 109,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,000 tons and a year - on - year cumulative decrease of 25%. In July, domestic stainless steel production is planned to be 3.12 million tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 4% and 1% respectively; Indonesia's production in July is planned to be 430,000 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 33% and 32% respectively [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: For nickel, it is recommended to sell on rallies as the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 【117000, 126000】 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, it is recommended to short when the price rebounds to the high end of the range of 【12300, 13100】 yuan/ton [10]. 02盘面回顾 - The nickel price is mainly dominated by macro - sentiment, and relevant data charts show the trends of domestic liquidity positions, LME and SHFE nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, and SHFE nickel 1 - 3 month spreads [12]. 03 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: This week, nickel ore port inventories reached 9.8787 million tons, an increase of 395,100 tons or 4.17% from the previous week. In the past month, nickel ore port inventories have increased by 2.2864 million tons, an increase of 30.11%. The nickel ore price has generally declined, and with the end of the rainy season, it is expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [17]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel production is in a loss, and some smelters have cut production [19]. - **Intermediate Products**: The supply of intermediate products is loose, and the price of nickel sulfate is weak. Some production lines are switching to producing nickel matte, and it is expected that the supply of nickel matte will increase significantly in July [22][23]. - **Imports**: In June, ferronickel imports increased significantly, while intermediate product imports decreased [26]. - **Inventories**: Global nickel inventories decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons, with China's inventories increasing and LME's decreasing. LME nickel inventories decreased by 3654 tons this week [30]. - **Electrowon Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel is sufficient, and the output has increased significantly year - on - year. The cumulative domestic pure nickel output from January to June increased by 29% year - on - year to 197,000 tons, and it is expected that the total output in July will be 32,200 tons, a slight increase of 1% month - on - month [34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of stainless steel is at a high level, and production cuts have limited impact. The production of 43 domestic stainless steel plants in July is planned to be 3.268 million tons, with a small decrease compared to the previous period. Stainless steel production is in a loss, and the economy of scrap stainless steel is prominent. Stainless steel inventories are still decreasing, but social inventories remain high. The real estate demand is低迷, while the manufacturing industry has been boosted. The ternary industry chain remains sluggish [37][41][43][46][49]. 04 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The global supply surplus of nickel is expected to expand year - on - year. In 2025E, the total supply is 3.893 million tons, and the total demand is 3.545 million tons, with a balance of 348,000 tons. In China, the supply surplus in 2025E is expected to be 162,000 tons, with a total supply of 2.539 million tons and a total consumption of 2.29 million tons [57].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, stainless steel prices have stabilized, and some traders have started speculative stocking. However, with high stainless - steel inventories, the impact of speculative demand is expected to be limited, and the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. In the context of weak demand, although the ore price has fallen, downstream smelters lack the motivation to expand production. It is expected that the ore price will continue to decline, driving the price center of the industrial chain to move down further. It is recommended to sell high in the operation. The short - term price range of the main contract of Shanghai Nickel is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M contract is 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11] Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The nickel ore price has generally declined. The supply of wet - process ore is stable with a stable price, while the price of pyrometallurgical ore is under pressure. It is expected that the nickel ore price will continue to decline due to weak demand [11] - **Ferronickel**: The market sentiment has slightly improved, and the supplier's quotation has increased. The market price of scattered orders has risen to 920 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom). The ferronickel price is running steadily and strongly, but there is still an oversupply pressure [11] - **Intermediate products**: The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen. The supply of high - grade nickel matte in July is expected to increase significantly compared with the previous month, and the output of MHP is expected to remain at a high level [11] - **Refined nickel**: The nickel price is running strongly driven by the rise of ferronickel price. The spot trading has turned cold, and the global nickel visible inventory has decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons, with inventory accumulation in China and inventory reduction in LME [11] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel have decreased, with a decline of 0.52% and 0.58% respectively. The LME closing price has increased slightly by 0.07%, and the SHFE closing price has decreased by 0.73%. The import loss has decreased [15] - **Futures market**: The LME nickel open interest has decreased by 3.73%, and the SHFE open interest has increased by 7.71%. The LME inventory has increased by 0.68%, and the SHFE inventory has increased by 0.92% [15] - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has increased by 3.71%, the nickel plate spot inventory has increased by 4.97%, and the nickel bean spot inventory has increased by 0.34% [15] - **Nickel spot premium**: The domestic refined nickel spot premium is relatively strong. The Russian nickel spot premium is 350 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The LME nickel Cash/3M discount is 204.70 US dollars/ton, slightly lower than last week [22] - **Secondary nickel price**: The ferronickel price is running steadily and strongly, and the market price of scattered orders has risen to 920 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom) [25] 3. Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The domestic port inventory has increased significantly, reaching 9.8787 million tons as of July 25, an increase of 4.2% compared with the same period last week. The nickel ore price is under pressure, and the prices of some grades of nickel ore in Indonesia and the Philippines are unchanged from last week [32][35] - **Ferronickel**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Intermediate products**: In June, the output of MHP in Indonesia was 39,000 nickel tons, basically unchanged from the previous month, and the output of high - grade nickel matte was 25,000 nickel tons, a significant increase from the previous month. As of July 25, the FOB prices of Indonesian MHP and high - grade nickel matte and their coefficients to LME nickel are unchanged from last week [42][47] 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In June 2025, the national refined nickel output reached 34,500 tons, maintaining a historically high level [52] - **Demand**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Import and export**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Inventory**: The global refined nickel inventory has decreased slightly. The global nickel visible inventory has decreased by 1.43% to 243,000 tons, with inventory accumulation in China and inventory reduction in LME. The LME nickel inventory has decreased by 3,654 tons to 204,000 tons, a decline of 1.76% [61] - **Cost**: Not further elaborated in this part 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Demand**: Not further elaborated in this part - **Cost and price**: Not further elaborated in this part 6. Supply - Demand Balance - From 2023 to 2025, the total supply of nickel is generally greater than the total demand, and the supply - demand gap shows an increasing trend year by year. In 2025, the supply - demand gap is expected to reach 166,400 tons [77]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given documents Core Views - Copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound due to factors such as the expected US copper tariff implementation and limited actual demand growth, with the SHFE copper main contract expected to trade between 77,500 - 80,000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - Aluminum prices may continue to rise driven by low inventory and positive sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited as the downstream is in the off - season and export demand is weak. The domestic main contract is expected to trade between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2,550 - 2,680 dollars/ton [3]. - Lead prices are expected to be weak as the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption is suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. - Zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long term due to the abundant supply, but may show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to be weak in the short term as the supply is low but the demand is also weak, with the domestic tin price expected to trade between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton and LME tin between 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton [7]. - Nickel ore prices are expected to decline due to weak demand, and the nickel market is in an oversupply situation, with the short - term SHFE nickel main contract expected to trade between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9][10]. - Lithium carbonate prices had a significant weekly increase, but the weak reality remains. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate main contract is expected to trade between 68,000 - 72,200 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to be strong in the short term but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to trade between 3,000 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - Stainless steel prices may rise slightly due to policy and demand support, but the de - stocking pressure of 304 series products is still prominent [17]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices may rise further due to cost support and positive macro - atmosphere, but may face downward pressure after the increase [19]. Summary by Metal Copper - Last week, copper prices first declined and then rose, with LME copper rising 1.36% to 9,794 dollars/ton and SHFE copper main contract closing at 79,040 yuan/ton [1]. - Three major exchanges' inventories increased by 21,000 tons, and Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 2,000 tons [1]. - The spot import loss narrowed, and the Yangshan copper premium increased [1]. - The LME market's Cash/3M discount widened, and the domestic basis quotes were differentiated [1]. - The refined - scrap copper price difference was 960 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. Aluminum - Last week, aluminum prices declined and then rebounded, with SHFE aluminum main contract falling 0.89% and LME aluminum rising 1.38% to 2,638 dollars/ton [3]. - The SHFE aluminum weighted contract's open interest decreased by 55,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased to 67,000 tons [3]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased to 492,000 tons, and the bonded area inventory decreased to 116,000 tons [3]. - The operating rate of major domestic aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - On Friday, SHFE lead index fell 0.16% to 16,836 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 3 to 1,977 dollars/ton [4]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was at par, and the price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized [4]. - The supply of lead ingots was relatively loose, and both social and enterprise inventories increased [4]. - The consumption of lead ingots was suppressed by the anti - dumping tariff in the Middle East [4]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.80% to 22,285 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 56.5 to 2,753.5 dollars/ton [6]. - The domestic supply of zinc ore was abundant, and the import zinc concentrate TC index increased significantly [6]. - In June, the domestic refined zinc output increased by 36,000 tons to 585,000 tons, and the supply is expected to continue to increase [6]. - The short - term zinc price may show an oscillating and strengthening trend due to positive market sentiment [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated narrowly [7]. - The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is progressing, but domestic smelters still face raw material supply pressure [7]. - The consumption in the off - season was poor, and the order volume of downstream factories was low [7]. - The social inventory of tin ingots decreased slightly [7]. Nickel - Nickel ore prices stabilized after a decline, and are expected to continue to decline due to weak demand [8]. - The demand for stainless steel had some support, but the short - term supply - demand contradiction was still large [8]. - The supply of nickel iron may decrease slightly in July, and the over - supply situation is difficult to reverse in the short term [8]. - The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen [9]. - Last week, nickel prices fluctuated around 120,000 yuan/ton, and the market sentiment was cautious [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate had a significant weekly increase, with the MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate rising 1,000 yuan on average [12]. - The price of Australian imported lithium concentrate also increased [12]. - The weak reality of lithium carbonate remains, with high production and inventory [12]. Alumina - On July 18, the alumina index rose 1.33% to 3,120 yuan/ton [14]. - The spot prices in some regions increased, and the import window was closed [14]. - The futures warehouse receipts decreased to a historical low [14]. - The short - term price may be strong, but the over - capacity situation is difficult to change in the year [14]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 12,725 yuan/ton [17]. - The spot prices in some markets increased, and the raw material prices were stable [17]. - The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 1.69% [17]. - The stainless steel price may rise slightly due to policy and demand support [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Last week, cast aluminum alloy futures prices first declined and then rose, with the AD2511 contract falling 0.28% to 19,875 yuan/ton [19]. - The weighted contract's open interest decreased slightly, and the contract spread was stable [19]. - The spot price was relatively stable, and the production cost increased [19]. - The production volume increased, and the total inventory decreased [19].