1、基本面：上周镍价震荡偏弱运行，下游成交一般，未见明显节前补库需求提升。产业链上，镍矿价 格坚挺，受台风影响，矿山装船出船或有延迟。镍铁价格维稳，成本线坚挺，镍铁企业仍然亏损。不锈 钢金九银十去库存放缓。新能源汽车产销数据良好，三元电池装车仍然呈现下降，对镍需求提升有限。 中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：围绕20均线上下波动，区间120000-123800震荡运行。节前控制仓位。 2、基差：现货122450，基差1070，偏多 3、库存：LME库存230124，-462，上交所仓单25153，+48，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减，偏空 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月29日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel 2508 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the support level of the 20 - day moving average. The medium - to - long - term supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, but the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles are beneficial to the demand for nickel [2]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel 2508 contract is expected to move in a volatile manner. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, but the nickel iron price is weakening, and the expectation of production reduction is increasing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 沪镍 - **Fundamentals**: The external market fluctuates around the 20 - day moving average. The ore price remains firm, but the nickel iron price continues to decline, and the market sentiment of bearish ore price is rising. The stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow out, and the inventory decreases slightly. The production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, which is beneficial to the demand for nickel. The medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The view is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 122,250, and the basis is 1,420, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory is 204,006 (- 288), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 21,221 (- 36), which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. 不锈钢 - **Fundamentals**: The spot stainless steel price remains flat. The short - term nickel ore price is firm, but the nickel iron price is weakening, and the expectation of production reduction is increasing, which is more likely to force the ore price down. The stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow into the spot market, and the inventory decreases slightly. The view is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: The average stainless steel price is 13,425, and the basis is 815, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts are 112,140 (- 187), which is bearish [3]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is neutral [3]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production and sales data of new energy vehicles continue to perform well, with a year - on - year increase in May [5]. - **Negative Factors**: The domestic production continues to increase significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. The stainless steel warehouse receipts are flowing into the spot market one after another, increasing the supply pressure. The contradiction between ore and nickel iron is intensifying, and the expectation of nickel iron production reduction is increasing, which is more likely to force the ore price down [5]. 3.3 Price Overview - **沪镍**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price on June 30 was 120,830, up 350 from June 27. The LME nickel price was 15,125, down 65 from June 27. The spot prices of different types of nickel showed different trends, with the nickel bean price rising by 2,100 [10]. - **不锈钢**: The stainless steel main contract price on June 30 was 12,610, down 10 from June 27. The spot prices of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in different regions remained unchanged [10]. 3.4 Warehouse Receipts and Inventory 镍 - As of June 27, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 24,718 tons, with the futures inventory at 21,257 tons, a decrease of 586 tons and 412 tons respectively. On June 30, the LME nickel inventory was 204,006 (- 288), and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,221 (- 36) [12][13]. 不锈钢 - On June 27, the Wuxi inventory was 62,800 tons, the Foshan inventory was 341,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,154,400 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons month - on - month. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 685,000 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons month - on - month. On June 30, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 112,140 (- 187) [17][18]. 3.5 Ore and Iron Prices - The prices of red clay nickel ore CIF with different grades remained unchanged on June 30 compared with June 27. The high - nickel wet - ton price was 912.5, down 0.5 from June 27, and the low - nickel wet - ton price remained unchanged [22]. 3.6 Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,680, the scrap steel production cost is 13,147, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost is 16,634 [24]. 3.7 Nickel Import Cost - The converted import price is 122,623 yuan/ton [27].