Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a shift from broad-based gains to structural depth, with a clear focus on two main lines: resource sectors and technology [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.31%, while the ChiNext Index saw a slight decline, indicating a "strong Shanghai, weak Shenzhen" market dynamic [1] - The leading sectors include oil and petrochemicals, national defense, and electronics, while utilities, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors are declining [1] Group 2: Drivers of Nonferrous Metals - Global liquidity expectations are influencing resource pricing, with the U.S. CPI data reinforcing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, benefiting precious metals like gold and silver, as well as copper [2] - The structural reshaping of demand in the new energy sector is providing a growth narrative for traditional industrial metals, with copper being termed the "electrification metal" and aluminum as the "lightweight metal" [2] - The rigid constraints of supply and demand fundamentals are a foundational element for price increases, particularly evident in silver, which has faced a significant supply shortage for five consecutive years [2] - Geopolitical risks and domestic policies are acting as dual catalysts, enhancing the safe-haven value of precious metals while supportive fiscal policies in China provide a potential recovery space for industrial metal demand [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The active nonferrous metals sector is not isolated but aligns with the strong performance of the technology growth sector, indicating two major investment strategies: "buy inflation/revaluation" (resources) and "buy growth/future" (technology) [3] - The upcoming cross-year market is expected to present more structural opportunities than index-based ones, with a focus on identifying where the opportunities lie [3] - Key areas to watch include nonferrous metals with tight supply-demand dynamics (copper, silver), hard technology sectors on the brink of domestic production and new technologies (semiconductor equipment, AI applications), and high-end equipment manufacturing capable of international expansion and upgrades [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [8] Core Views - Precious Metals: Mixed U.S. employment data supports expectations for interest rate cuts, which in turn supports rising gold prices [3][12] - Industrial Metals: Domestic copper prices are fluctuating at high levels, while aluminum prices are declining [4][14] - New Energy Metals: Carbonate lithium prices are significantly rising, with intense competition at high levels [5][19] - Other Minor Metals: Rare earth prices are declining, while tungsten prices increased by 15.3% over the week [5][24] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, exceeding expectations of 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, reinforcing market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][13] - The S&P Global U.S. Composite PMI for December fell to 53.0, the lowest since June, indicating weakened economic momentum [3][13] - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [3][13] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are stabilizing due to unexpected increases in U.S. unemployment rates, which bolster expectations for interest rate cuts [4][15] - The price of copper reached 93,200 CNY/ton, up 27% year-to-date, driven by macroeconomic factors and supply constraints [4][17] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain under pressure due to seasonal demand fluctuations, but long-term demand from new energy sectors is anticipated to support prices [4][18] New Energy Metals - Carbonate lithium prices have surged, with the price reaching 111,400 CNY/ton as of December 19, reflecting a significant increase from earlier in the year [5][23] - The demand for lithium remains strong, particularly in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors, despite some price resistance from downstream buyers [5][20] - Key stocks to consider include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [5][23] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are on a downward trend, with prices for praseodymium and neodymium decreasing [5][24] - Tungsten prices have seen a notable increase of 15.3% over the week, indicating a strong market response [5][24] - Suggested stocks include Hunan Gold, Zhongjin Lingnan, and others in the tungsten and rare earth sectors [5][24]

2025年，沉寂多年的有色金属板块迎来了久违的史诗级行情。截至12月16日，A股有色金属（申万一级行业，下同）年度涨幅高达73.67%，超越通信板块 （72.97%），位居全市场第一。而在上周五，全A涨幅第一是通信行业，可见今年行业涨幅榜竞争激烈程度。 有色金属板块内个股表现更是精彩纷呈。斯瑞新材（688102.SH）以340.01%的涨幅领跑，招金黄金（000506.SZ）、兴业银锡（000426.SZ）、中钨高新 （000657.SZ）、洛阳钼业（603993.SH）等一批耳熟能详的有色龙头，涨幅均超过150%，共计26只股年内翻倍，成为2025年A股最靓丽的风景线。 本文字数：2711，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经魏中原 在一片欢腾与惊叹中，一个几乎被市场遗忘的历史规律正凝视着这场有色盛宴。第一财经记者统计2000年以来的行业涨幅排名数据，有色金属行业两次涨 幅排名全A第二，却从未登顶，也从未实现过连续两年跻身涨幅前五名的壮举。 此刻，有色金属正无限接近打破第一项纪录，其年涨幅领先第二名通信行业0.7个百分点，能否保持领先身位距离，登顶A股年度榜首，距离2025年A股收 官还有12个交易日，这一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international copper prices have reached historical highs due to increasing concerns over global supply shortages, although a recent pullback was observed on December 9 [1][2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The core factor driving the rise in copper prices is the sustained tightness in supply, with several mining companies lowering their mid-term production forecasts and a significant number of cancellation requests for LME warehouse receipts [3]. - Demand for copper is steadily increasing in sectors such as electric vehicles, power grid construction, and AI data centers, contributing to a robust demand outlook [3]. Market Performance - Following a surge in copper prices since November 28, related A-share concept stocks have shown strong performance, with companies like Shengton Mining and Jiangxi Copper seeing cumulative increases of 17.36% and 13.96%, respectively [2]. - On December 9, copper futures on the LME fell over 1%, with the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropping 1.46%, reflecting a broader market reaction [2]. Long-term Outlook - Institutions maintain an optimistic long-term outlook for copper prices, with expectations of new highs by 2026 driven by factors such as the ongoing U.S. interest rate cycle and geopolitical stability [4]. - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) anticipates a supply gap of 150,000 tons by 2026 due to limited new copper mining capacity, further supporting price increases [4]. Structural Supply Concerns - While short-term supply is expected to meet demand, there are concerns about potential structural shortages in the long term, driven by economic recovery and growth in emerging industries [5]. - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with indications of profit-taking among investors, suggesting a need for careful position management [5].

（来源：财富情报局） 作者：墨舟 编辑：金玉 铜价正发出强劲的看涨信号。 瑞银在其最新矿业研究报告中指出，在全球铜矿生产扰动频繁与新能源需求持续爆发的双重推动下，铜价有望在2026年启动新一轮上涨周期。 该报告进一步指出，2026年铜在供应端面临多重约束，包括铜矿品位下降、新项目投产周期长（超10年）、环保政策趋严等，2026年或出现实质性短缺。 需求端则受益于新能源汽车（单车用铜量为燃油车的3–4倍）、风电、光伏及电网升级的推动，预计到2030年新能源领域将贡献全球铜需求的20%以上。 瑞银预计2026–2027年铜价将保持强势，且长期需维持高位以激励新矿投资。 另外，报告提醒对镍、钴等供应过剩品种保持谨慎，并注意中国在房地产、基建等领域的政策动向可能对短期价格带来的影响。 总体而言，2026年矿业投资应遵循"因品施策"原则：以铜为核心配置，铁矿石需精选个股，镍、钴等则宜等待供需结构改善后的机会，并持续跟踪中国需 求变化与全球能源转型进程。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 除了铜，报告也分析指出，2026年全球矿业将呈现"冰火两重天"局面，不同品种间的供需格局分化显著。瑞银针对主要大宗商品进行了逐一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Views - The report highlights a significant increase in lithium carbonate prices, with lithium salt plants actively mining [2] - The short-term outlook for lithium shows a continued increase in both supply and demand, while long-term projections indicate that energy storage will become a major growth driver for lithium [2] - In the precious metals sector, the report notes a decrease in interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, while global central banks continue to show strong demand for gold [11] - For industrial metals, the report indicates that copper prices have a solid support at the bottom, with expectations of price increases driven by potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and strong demand from the new energy sector [12][13] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report discusses the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts, which limits the price increase of gold. However, long-term value remains intact due to geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns [10][11] - Key stocks to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Zijin Mining, and others in both A-shares and H-shares [11] Industrial Metals - Copper prices are expected to rise due to a tightening supply and strong demand from the new energy sector. The report notes a recent accident in a Congolese copper mine that has raised supply concerns [12][13] - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, with a potential for increases in the long term due to supply constraints and strong demand [16] New Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices have surged, with strong production from lithium salt plants. The report anticipates a continued high demand for lithium, particularly in energy storage applications [2][17] - Key companies in the lithium sector include Ganfeng Lithium, Yahua Industrial, and others [18] Other Minor Metals - The report notes a stable market for antimony, with a significant increase in exports in October. The outlook for antimony prices remains stable [19][21] - Other minor metals such as tungsten and molybdenum are also highlighted, with specific companies recommended for investment [21]

Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report, dated October 31, 2025 [1] Report's Core Views Bullish Factors - Strong demand in the new energy sector, with increased production of ternary precursors, is driving up the price of nickel sulfate [3]. - High prices of nickel ore, and with the rainy season approaching in the Philippines, mines are more inclined to hold prices [3]. Bearish Factors - Weak fundamentals of refined nickel, with continuous accumulation of social inventory, suppressing the rebound of nickel prices [3]. - Insufficient demand in the stainless - steel sector, and the "Golden October" peak season was lackluster, with high social inventory [3]. Trading Advisory View - The macro sentiment and the current situation of fundamental oversupply counterbalance each other, limiting the upside potential of prices [3] Market Data Summary Nickel Futures - The closing prices of SHFE nickel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1.16%, -0.96%, -0.98%, -0.98% respectively, and LME nickel 3M decreased by -0.90%. The trading volume decreased by -23.48%, and the open interest decreased by -1.0%. The warehouse receipt quantity increased by 17.61%, and the basis of the main contract decreased by -77.14% [4] Stainless Steel Futures - The closing prices of stainless - steel contracts (main, continuous 1, 2, 3) decreased by -1%, -0.66%, -0.35%, -0.23% respectively. The trading volume decreased by -33.67%, and the open interest decreased by -22.61%. The warehouse receipt quantity decreased by -0.56%, and the basis of the main contract increased by 15.18% [5] Spot Prices - The prices of金川 nickel, imported nickel, 1 electrolytic nickel, nickel beans, and electrowon nickel increased by 0.24%, 0.21%, 0.25%, 0.20%, 0.29% respectively [5] Inventory Data - Domestic social nickel inventory increased by 1094 tons, LME nickel inventory decreased by 66 tons, stainless - steel social inventory increased by 0.4 thousand tons, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased by 174 tons [7] Data Charts - The report includes multiple data charts showing the historical trends of stainless - steel futures closing prices, nickel spot average prices, nickel and stainless - steel inventory, upstream nickel ore prices and inventory, downstream nickel sulfate prices and profit margins, and stainless - steel production and profit margins [8][9][14]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The nickel market has high inventories and an oversupplied pattern, so nickel prices are expected to remain in low - level oscillations. The stainless - steel market has weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, so it is expected to remain in range - bound oscillations [3][5]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,100 yuan/ton and closed at 121,380 yuan/ton, a 0.19% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 93,921 (+20,070) lots, and the open interest was 127,005 (+5,694) lots. The main contract showed a volatile pattern of opening low and closing high, with a fluctuation range of only 0.44%. Supported by the expectation of loose liquidity and strong new - energy demand, along with the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the price oscillated upward [1]. Nickel Ore - The nickel ore market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and prices are stable. There is a certain price difference between supply and demand in the domestic market. In the Philippines, the Surigao mining area is about to enter the rainy season, and shipments are coming to an end. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in October (Phase II) increased by 0.06 - 0.11 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 27. Indonesian factories have recently been purchasing raw materials [2]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average, and the spot premiums of each brand increased slightly. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 26,881 (-72) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 250,854 (-24) tons [2]. Strategy - Due to high inventories and oversupply, it is expected that nickel prices will remain in low - level oscillations. The strategy is mainly range - bound operations for the single - side, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Group 4: Stainless - Steel Market Analysis Futures - On October 23, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,700 yuan/ton and closed at 12,765 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 151,385 (+52,175) lots, and the open interest was 166,411 (-4,171) lots. Driven by the strong nickel price, the main contract showed a volatile and strong trend with increasing volume and price, but there was a short - term oversold rebound. The continuous reduction of open interest in the main contract for 5 days reflects strong risk - aversion sentiment among funds, and the market doubts the sustainability of the rebound [3]. Spot - The driving effect of futures on spot is not obvious, and actual trading remains light. Spot prices remain low. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,000 (+0) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium is 335 - 635 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 934.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. Strategy - Due to weak downstream demand growth, increasing inventories, and weakening cost support, stainless steel is expected to remain in a range - bound oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in non-ferrous metal prices is driven by a combination of macroeconomic factors, including the re-evaluation of the global monetary system and the weakening of the US dollar, which has led to increased demand for these metals as a hedge against currency devaluation [3][4]. Group 1: Macro Environment - The current bull market in non-ferrous metals is rooted in a broader macroeconomic context, characterized by a long-term reassessment of the global monetary system and the creditworthiness of the US dollar [3]. - Analysts believe that the dual loosening of US fiscal and monetary discipline is a key driver of the long-term strong performance of non-ferrous metals, which are viewed as hard currencies against currency depreciation [3][4]. - The recent price movements of gold, silver, and copper reflect the volatility of the dollar's credit, with gold breaking the $4000 per ounce mark and copper nearing $11000 per ton [4]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply side is facing long-term constraints, with declining ore grades requiring more mining to obtain the same amount of metal, leading to significantly higher marginal costs [7]. - There is insufficient capital expenditure in the mining sector due to lower returns on investment, which has resulted in a cautious approach to expansion despite rising commodity prices [8]. - The reduction in high-quality mines and the strategic elevation of resource commodities are further tightening supply, as countries implement measures to enhance resource value [9]. Group 3: Demand Drivers - A new demand engine centered around AI and renewable energy is emerging, significantly increasing the demand for copper and other non-ferrous metals [10]. - The demand for metals related to AI infrastructure and energy upgrades is expected to grow, with renewable energy accounting for a substantial portion of demand in traditional cyclical industries [10]. - The shift in demand dynamics is evident as the contribution of real estate and infrastructure to metal demand has decreased, while the share from the renewable energy sector has increased significantly [10]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The non-ferrous metals sector is poised for a "Davis Double Play," where both earnings and valuations could rise as the market recognizes the non-cyclical nature of high commodity prices [13]. - The combination of long-term supply constraints and increasing demand from manufacturing and strategic reserves positions non-ferrous metals as a core component of the ongoing commodity bull market [13]. - Analysts predict that non-ferrous metals will maintain a high level of prosperity in the coming years, driven by a recovery in downstream demand and a favorable capital expenditure cycle [13].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - The company's profitability is pressured by declining lithium prices, with a focus on the potential growth of small metals and copper resources [4][9]. - In Q2 2025, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -0.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 121% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 134% [2][4]. - The company is diversifying its metal resources, with steady development in lithium and rubidium-cesium segments, while accelerating the expansion into gallium, germanium, and copper [9]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved lithium salt sales of 17,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.37%, and began direct sales of self-produced lithium concentrate, with sales of 34,800 tons [9]. - The rubidium-cesium segment generated revenue of 708 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 50.43%, with a gross profit of approximately 511 million yuan, also up by 50.15% [9]. - The copper smelting business faced a net profit loss of approximately 200 million yuan due to a significant decline in industry processing fees [9]. Future Outlook - The company is advancing its lithium sulfate project in Africa and enhancing resource utilization efficiency at the Tanco mine in Canada [9]. - A lithium salt technical transformation project commenced in June 2025, expected to increase smelting capacity by 5,000 tons while reducing costs [9]. - The copper segment is progressing with the Kitumba copper mine project, with initial design work completed and construction underway [9].